Area Forecast Discussion
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FXPQ60 PGUM 102209
AFDPQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
809 AM ChST Sun Dec 11 2016

.Synopsis...
Andersen Air Force Base Doppler weather radar shows only a few
showers within the Marianas waters. The VAD wind profile reveals
east winds of 7 to 16 knots through the lowest 8 thousand feet of
the air.

&&

.Discussion...
All numerical models still bring the trade-wind disturbance
through late tonight through Monday night, so little change in the
forecast package. Mainly moderate winds and waves will continue
through the forecast period. Winds could rise a bit early next
week, so any concerned should keep an eye on that. A small craft
advisory is a possibility during that time.

&&

.Eastern Micronesia...
A fairly active band of trade-wind convergence continues to
generate showers and thunderstorms from near Pohnpei to the date
line. Gentle winds are seen south of about 5N with a weak
circulation centered just south of Kosrae. Moderate to fresh
trades are seen to the north. This pattern will hold steady the
next couple days, but relatively drier weather is expected around
midweek as drier northeast trades strengthen across the region.
Another convergent trade-wind pattern could bring showers to the
region again on Friday.

Trade-wind swell and wind waves will slowly build the next few
days across the region from Chuuk to Majuro. Surf and small craft
advisories are not expected through mid week at this time, but
some inundation may be possible at Majuro and low-lying coastal
areas of Kosrae as the astronomical high tides will be building
this week. Based on latest outlooks, most vulnerable areas will
be northeast and east facing coastal areas, around Tuesday to
Sunday.

&&

.Western Micronesia...
Reasoning for the Chuuk forecast is included under the Eastern
Micronesia section above.

Latest IR satellite imagery shows decaying convection within the
Yap and Koror coastal waters. However, new convection is firing
up from south to west of Koror. A weak circulation remains
southeast of Koror and is still projected to maintain a slow trek
westward the next few days. This will keep a generally unsettled
pattern in place the next few days for both locations.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...None.
Marianas Waters...None.
&&

$$

Stanko/M. Aydlett



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