Area Forecast Discussion
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FXPQ60 PGUM 271838
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
438 AM CHST SUN DEC 28 2014

.MARIANAS SYNOPSIS...
ONLY ACTOR ON THE LOCAL STAGE IS A DIFFUSE TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE
PASSING THROUGH THE FORECAST ZONES. UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE
CURRENTLY OVERHEAD IS ACTING TO ENHANCE THE SHOWERS AS THEY PASS
THROUGH...BUT NO CBS HAVE BEEN NOTED. ONLY TRADE-WIND CLOUDINESS
AND SHOWERS ARE EVIDENT UPSTREAM FROM THE MARIANAS ALL THE WAY TO
THE DATE LINE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ONLY CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO ADD SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE
GUAM AND ROTA ZONES TO FACTOR IN THE PASSAGE OF THE TRADE-WIND
DISTURBANCE. MODEL SOLUTIONS DO SUGGEST AN INCREASE IN CLOUD AND
SHOWER COVERAGE FROM TIME TO TIME DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK AS
WEAK TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH...BUT SYSTEMS ARE
DIFFICULT TO LOCATE/INITIALIZE IN THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY.
WILL ACCORDINGLY MAINTAIN A DRY BIAS IN THE FORECAST AND GO WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKY AND ISOLATED SHOWER WORDING IN THE FORECAST
TONIGHT THROUGH DAY 7.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST ALTIMETRY AND BUOY READINGS SHOW SEAS GRADUALLY SUBSIDING
TO AROUND 7 FEET. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN SEA CONDITIONS ARE
FORESEEN DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH MODERATE RIP CURRENT
RISK CONTINUING.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
A DRY TRADE-WIND PATTERN REMAINS FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS EASTERN
MICRONESIA. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AT
MAJURO. MODELS SHOW SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER KOSRAE BEGINNING
TONIGHT AS A DISTURBANCE PASSES KOSRAE TO THE SOUTH.
HOWEVER...ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THE
SAME WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BRING INCREASED CLOUD COVER TO POHNPEI
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE PUSHING WESTWARD INTO CHUUK STATE.
NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES WERE NECESSARY.

SEAS MAY SUBSIDE BELOW 10 FEET TONIGHT AND MONDAY BUT A SECONDARY
TRADE-WIND SURGE WILL BRING SEAS BACK UP TO AROUND 10 FEET FOR
ALL FORECAST LOCATIONS MONDAY. HIGH SURF ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR
KOSRAE WITH HAZARDOUS SURF LIKELY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
CHUUK WILL EXPERIENCE A DRY TRADE-WIND REGIME AT LEAST THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. THE WEAK DISTURBANCE ABOUT TO AFFECT KOSRAE AND
POHNPEI WILL PASS SOUTH OF CHUUK TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN INCREASED CLOUD COVER FOR CHUUK BUT MOST OF THE SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TO PASS SOUTH OF CHUUK. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ON THE
SOUTHEAST SIDE OF A SLOW MOVING TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CENTERED
WEST OF KOROR HAS GENERATED SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER KOROR WATERS.
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. SKIES
WILL CLEAR OVER YAP THIS AFTERNOON AS RELATIVELY DRY TRADE-WIND
FLOW RESUMES AND CONTINUES THROUGH MIDWEEK. CLEARING WILL BE SLOW
OVER KOROR WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES RETURNING THERE LATE MONDAY.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

MCELROY/WILLIAMS





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