Area Forecast Discussion
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FXPQ60 PGUM 290728

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
524 PM ChST Sat Apr 29 2017

.Marianas Synopsis... East winds prevail over the Marianas this
afternoon. Weak high pressure will keep showers to a minimum
through at least Monday.


Afternoon satellite imagery showed just a few clouds over the
Marianas. Models keep deep layer moisture to a minimum through at
least Monday and expect just isolated showers at best.

GFS and CMC model show a weak surface trough bringing a brief period
of clouds and showers Monday night while ECMWF and NAVGEM do not.
Confidence in this is not high so left out of forecast and at any
rate shower coverage will probably remain remain isolated.

Models agree on a dry weather pattern through Thursday with only
isolated showers expected.


Observations this afternoon from Ritidian, Tanapag, and Ipan buoys
indicate combined sea heights around 3 to 5 feet. Expect little
change in heights through Sunday night. Combined seas is predicted
to increase to 4 to 6 feet Monday.

An east trade-wind swell of 3 to 5 feet is expected through Monday
night increasing slightly Tuesday. Surf will be 5 to 7 feet on east
facing reefs with little change the next few days. The surf on all
other will be 3 feet or less.


.Eastern Micronesia...
A trade-wind disturbance is producing scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms just south of Kosrae. These showers will gradually
spread northward over the next couple of days, bringing scattered
showers to Kosrae by Tuesday. The pattern looks to remain unsettled
then through Thursday. Convection will then begin to affect Pohnpei
Sunday as isolated thunderstorms move into the state. Models are
trending toward a wetter pattern than previously expected for the
beginning of next week and could result in showers being increased
to scattered for Monday. For Majuro, dry conditions look to continue
through at least midweek.

Fresh to strong trade winds at Majuro will gradually taper off
Sunday evening. Until then, winds will be hazardous to small craft.


.Western Micronesia...
A dry trade-wind pattern is expected to continue at Chuuk through
the remainder of the weekend. On Monday, a trade-wind disturbance,
currently south of Kosrae, will bring unsettled weather to Chuuk
for next week. Overall, isolated showers and thunderstorms are
expected at Chuuk for most of the week, though short periods of
scattered showers are possible.

A fairly dry trade-wind pattern is now in place over both Yap and
Koror and is expected to continue through the week.


Marianas Waters...None.


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