Area Forecast Discussion
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FXPQ60 PGUM 210703
AFDPQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
500 PM ChST Mon Aug 21 2017

.Marianas Synopsis...
Mostly cloudy skies with isolated showers and light to gentle
south to southeast winds prevail across the Marianas this
afternoon. Latest buoy data shows seas between 2 and 3 feet.

&&

.Discussion...
An upper-level trough stretches from a low just west of Guam
across the Marianas to another low north of Pohnpei. There is also
a weak surface trough stretched northeastward across the islands.
These two systems helped maintain unsettled weather over the
coastal waters today though no thunderstorms have occurred yet.
These systems will continue to drift westward, dragging the
unstable weather with as they move out of the area. The risk of
thunderstorms will continue through the day on Tuesday before a
more stable and drier pattern sets up over the Marianas. Latest
model guidance now shows another surface trough developing to the
east of the Marianas near the end of the week, with more thunder
possible Thursday or Friday. kept the forecast unchanged for now
to see if this scenario becomes more certain.

&&

.Marine...
Benign seas and light to gentle winds are expected to
continue into the weekend.

&&

.Eastern Micronesia...
A near-equatorial trough lies just north of Pohnpei and Kosrae. A few
clusters of showers and thunderstorms are seen east of Kosrae and,
more abundantly, east of Majuro. Models show the trough retreating to
the northwest, possibly a little too fast, with weaker easterly winds
filling into the area. Showers and thunderstorms will build in to the
Majuro and Kosrae areas Tuesday and slowly taper by Wednesday.

&&

.Western Micronesia...
Showers and thunderstorms persist around Koror while cloudy
conditions remain around Yap. An upper-level low to the northeast of
Yap is helping to generate deep convection in the region. The eastern
end of the monsoon trough with its heavy showers and thunderstorms is
just northwest of the area. As the monsoon heads northwest, a weak
low-level ridge in the area will keep winds fairly weak. Models
indicate some moisture in the area but nothing widespread and very
organized at this time. Chuuk, still south of the near-equatorial
trough, will remain with light winds the next couple of days until
weak east to southeast winds develop around Thursday. A surface
trough around midweek could provide just enough instability to spark
a few thunderstorms Wednesday or Thursday.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...None.
Marianas Waters...None.
&&

$$

Kleeschulte/W. Aydlett



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