Area Forecast Discussion
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FXPQ60 PGUM 260731

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
531 PM ChST Mon Jun 26 2017

.Marianas Synopsis...
A tropical disturbance west of the Marianas is continuing to move
west. After a few last lingering thunderstorms tonight it will no
longer have any affect on the Marianas. Eyes are now turning
toward an upper-level low well east of the Marianas near 18N161E.
This is expected to approach the islands around Thursday and could
provide isolated showers and thunderstorms through Saturday. The
buoys show combined seas of 3 to 5 feet.


The tropical disturbance is still cycling in its convection. It
happened to pass through during a down cycle and therefore dropped
much less rain than it otherwise might have. This is generally a
good thing as it removed the threat of flooding. There was also
quite a bit less lightning than had previously been anticipated.
Improving weather the next couple of days will last until Thursday
when a new upper-level low will approach.

Winds will stay mainly light to gentle, and seas will diminish
from 3 to 5 feet with a few 6 foot values to between 2 and 4 feet
by Thursday. Seas could even diminish to between 1 and 3 feet
early next week.


.Tropical systems...
The tropical disturbance that passed through the Marianas
yesterday evening now has winds of 10 to 15 knots. Although it has
entered an area of low vertical shear, an upper-level low to its
northwest is inhibiting outflow and thus little if any development
is expected. The potential for development of a significant
tropical cyclone in the next 24 hours has been downgraded to low.


.Eastern Micronesia...
A relatively drier pattern has emerged across the eastern region
with isolated to scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
present from Chuuk to the date line. A weak surface trough just
east of Chuuk will bring scattered showers overnight there. Models
still indicated a showery pattern the next few days, but without
any significant weather features. Another surface trough/
convergence zone near and east of the date line will bring more
showers to Majuro later on Tuesday and Wednesday. This feature
will shift westward through the week. Gentle winds and combined
seas of 3 to 5 feet are expected across the region through the end
of the week.


.Western Micronesia...
Discussion for the Chuuk`s forecast is included under Eastern
Micronesia above.

Light to gentle winds and relatively dry air aloft will maintain
fair weather the next couple days at Koror and Yap. Will have to
keep an eye out for afternoon thunderstorms at Koror if the
surface winds are light enough. Vis satellite did show some
convective buildups just north of Koror today. After midweek,
increasing mid-level moisture and a weak disturbance could
trigger more showers for both locations.


Marianas Waters...None.


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