Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 312110
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
310 PM MDT WED AUG 31 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 305 PM MDT Wed Aug 31 2016

...Fewer storms tomorrow...

Scattered afternoon storms are now developing over the mountains,
and more ISOLD development creeping over portions of the plains and
high valleys. Weak area of high pressure aloft continues and light
steering winds aloft is resulting in slow storm motions, generally
from north to south across our area. Given the slow movements, will
have to continue to watch for locally heavy rainfall, but low PWATs
and dry air aloft as seen in WV imagery suggest that threat of
flooding is relatively low. Based on recent obs and trends, it looks
like the best coverage of storms through this evening will be near
the KS border and over southern portions of the CWA, south of highway
160.

Main forecast concern for the short term is the extent of low clouds
overnight. Recent high res guidance is trending towards greater
extent of stratus through Thu morning, as easterly surface flow
advects low clouds up the Arkansas tonight. 18Z NAM, for example,
has a 5K foot saturated layer at KCOS by early Thu morning. This
would be sufficient for some spotty early morning DZ of light
showers for a brief period early Thu before clouds gradually thin
and lift later Thu morning.

More extensive cloud cover early Thu will tend to stabilize the
plains, and with continued ridging aloft, looks like the Plains
should stay mainly dry through Thursday. Mountain areas will
continue to see ISOLD to SCT afternoon storms on Thu. Temps will
be a few degrees higher Thu afternoon as temps aloft rise a couple
more degrees. Rose

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 305 PM MDT Wed Aug 31 2016

...Stronger storms possible Friday...

Moisture plume remains over CO through Friday...though as ridge axis
shifts eastward through the period...southwest flow aloft starts to
increase. Meanwhile...southerly flow across the plains will maintain
an axis of 50+ sfc dew points across the eastern counties...yielding
CAPE values of 1000-1500 J/kg by afternoon. Coupled with deep
layer shears around 30-40 kts (highest out west) this should
increase storm strengths for Friday with a few strong to near
severe storms possible. With dew points forecast to maintain in
the 40s across the mountains...even western areas could see a few
strong storms. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible...so flash
flooding will still be a concern. However with the flow aloft
increasing so should storm motions which may help mitigate this
threat some.

Similar pattern persists into Saturday...though lee trof starts to
dry out sfc dew points along the I-25 corridor.  Still looking at
sufficient CAPE and deep layer shear for a strong storm or
two particularly eastern areas...though suspect that dew points
over the mountains will start drying out.

Southwest flow brings a drier and warmer airmass over the region for
Sunday through early next week...though passing trofs to the north
send brief frontal intrusions into the southeast plains.  GFS still
sends one into the southeast plains for Tuesday afternoon. Depending
on the dew point recovery behind the front...this may bring another
upswing in strong to severe thunderstorms for the southeast plains.
-KT

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 305 PM MDT Wed Aug 31 2016

ISOLD storms will continue to be possible at KCOS and KPUB this
evening, especially from around 00Z to 04Z or so. Then, low cigs
will be the main concern. Latest forecast guidance is trending
towards a bit more extensive stratus development overnight. Will
keep MVFR cigs and VIS for now in the TAF, but potentially could see
a short period of FG at the KCOS TAF early Thu morning. Window for
low cigs and/or vis at the TAF site will be greatest from around
09Z through 15Z Thu. Rose

&&

.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...ROSE



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