Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 291026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
426 AM MDT FRI JUL 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 425 AM MDT Fri Jul 29 2016

...Another Round of Storms Today...

Northwest flow will continue across the forecast area today.  This
pattern has brought increased shear to the environment.  It has also
opened the door for a series of upper disturbances to clip the
eastern plains, serving as triggers to afternoon convection.
Combined with ample moisture, this has resulted in rounds of severe
convection over the past couple days.  The pattern is similar today
so generally more of the same can be expected.  However, it is
possible that yesterday`s convection has spread enough cooler, more
stable air south to limit convection across parts of the plains
today.  This would mainly be for plains east of I-25 and also away
from the Palmer and Raton Ridges.  This is where the cooler, more
stable air is most likely to have an impact on limiting convection.
As you near the mountains and ridges, the depth of the cool, stable
air will decrease and lifting of the air by the terrain will
increase. So, areas in or near the mountain and ridges, will have
better odds of developing convection.  Whatever convection does
develop today, it will have to the potential to be severe again.
Much like yesterday, there is plenty of CAPE and shear to develop
rotating, supercellular convection.  Primary storm threats will be
much like yesterday, including large hail, strong winds, flash
flooding and lightning.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 425 AM MDT Fri Jul 29 2016

Saturday-Monday...Generally weak westerly flow aloft is progged
across the region into early next week, as upper level high pressure
across the Desert SW and southern Great Basin slowly builds east
across the Central and Southern Rockies. Models continue to indicate
a slight increase in mid and upper level moisture across southern
portions of the area on Saturday, with monsoonal moisture continuing
to increase under the building ridge aloft as it works its way
across the region through early next week. This supports better
chances of afternoon and evening storms over and near the higher
terrain each day, with lesser chances of storms across the eastern
plains with subsidence and warm air aloft under the building ridge.
Weak flow aloft will support slow movement of storms and increasing
potential for localized heavy rainfall and flash flooding into
early next week. With the increased convective activity, temperatures
look to be around seasonal averages, though will likely spike to
above seasonal readings across the plains Sunday and Monday as the
high moves across the state.

Tuesday-Thursday...Flow aloft becomes more southwest through the
middle of next week with the upper high pushed south and east of the
area as a Pac NW trough translates east across the Northern Tier.
Models continue to indicate abundant monsoonal moisture translating
across the area within the weak southwest flow aloft supporting good
chances of daily showers and storms over and near the higher
terrain. In addition, short waves associated with the passing upper
trough progged to send fronts across the eastern plains Wednesday
and Thursday, bringing in better low level moisture and supporting
better chances of storms across the plains. With that said, will
have to watch for the potential of heavy rainfall and flash flooding
across all of south central and southeast Colorado through the
end of next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 425 AM MDT Fri Jul 29 2016

Last evening`s convection has spread a lot of low level moisture
across the plains.  Dewpoints are high across the plains, generally
in the upper 50s and 60s.  Although there has not been a lot of low
cloud development across the plains yet, there is still time for
that to happen.  Need to watch for low clouds and patchy fog across
the plains through the early morning hours.

This afternoon, another round of afternoon and evening thunderstorms
can be expected. Today`s round may hold more closely to the terrain
as parts of the plains may have stabilized as a result of
yesterday`s convection.  Primary storm threats today will include
large hail, strong winds, flash flooding and lightning. This would
primarily be over the plains and adjacent eastern mountain areas.
For the mountains and high valleys farther west, storms will tend to
be drier and higher based with the main threats primarily lightning,
gusty winds and spotty heavy rain.

For KCOS and KPUB, generally VFR except possibly for 2 periods, one
this morning with possible low clouds and one this afternoon and
evening when thunderstorms will be nearby.  For KALS, VFR expected
next 24 hours.  The airmass is drier there, too dry for low clouds
this morning and probably too dry for afternoon and evening storms.


.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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