Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV
FXUS65 KREV 241105
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
305 AM PST Fri Feb 24 2017
A calm weather day is expected today but with a slight chance for
snow showers north of Susanville. Two disturbances will then move
over the region, one late tonight and Saturday with a second
Sunday into Monday. A light snowfall is possible with both,
although the second looks a bit stronger. Temperatures will remain
below average through early next week.
Recent model simulations have slowed down the arrival of the
Sunday-Monday storm. Accordingly, the main change to the short
term forecast was to lower QPF and POP for Sunday during the day.
We can`t rule out snow showers during the day but the main part
of the storm is expected to arrive Sunday evening.
For today, a dry day is expected overall but with increasing high
clouds as a low pressure system drops south out of Oregon. There
is a slight chance for leading-edge moisture with this system to
bring snow showers north of Susanville-Gerlach by this afternoon.
Better chances for snow showers tonight are expected to spread
south to near I-80 overnight and then to Mono/Mineral Counties by
Saturday mid-day. Minimal snow accumulation is expected overall
but stronger showers will be capable of creating sudden
reductions in visibility and slick sections on roads. A drying
trend from north to south will occur Saturday night but a few snow
showers could linger, especially south of I-80.
The next disturbance arrives quickly and could bring a return of
snow showers to the Sierra and western NV Sunday morning (but
this is looking less likely with latest model simulations). Winds
will increase Sunday with valleys becoming breezy and Sierra
ridges seeing gusts 75+ mph by Sunday afternoon. We then expect
increasing snow chances along with an increasing threat for travel
impacts by Sunday evening. The message for drivers is that Sunday
morning and early afternoon is looking like a better travel
period than Sunday evening. JCM
.LONG TERM...Sunday night through Thursday...
Only minor changes made to the ongoing forecast with a couple of
weak disturbances bringing light snow to the region for the early
part of the week. The first of these waves drops out of the north
Sunday night into Monday and has little residence time over the
ocean to entrain additional moisture. Therefore, it will be another
reinforcing shot of cold air, but have limited precipitation totals.
Light snow accumulation remains possible for the Monday morning
commute, so it may be a good idea to give yourself a little extra
time. A secondary, weaker, wave follows Monday afternoon with
scattered snow showers and light accumulations possible.
Cool and dry northwesterly flow will remain over the west Tuesday
into Wednesday keeping temperatures below normal with little chance
for any precipitation. A ridge slowly strengthens over the west by
the end of the week with plenty of warming aloft and dry conditions
continuing. Model forecast soundings are indicating weak inversions
setting up, but considering the time of year, it`ll be hard for
inversions to strengthen. Temperatures are trending warmer for the
end of the week, but kept a few degrees below guidance to account
for inversion conditions.
At this point, it appears the much needed break in the rain and snow
will continue through at least the first few days of March. There is
a weak atmospheric river signal showing up in long range ensembles
in the March 4-11 time frame, but latitude remains uncertain with
the range from 35N-50N. This could potentially open the storm door
again, but the signal is currently nebulous. -Dawn
FZFG at times overnight at KTRK is likely for at least the next
few nights. Other than FZFG at KTRK early this morning...VFR
conditions are expected today. For the Sierra from this evening
through Saturday evening...a weak system will bring mountain
obscuration and chances for snow showers. For western NV
terminals...expect increasing high clouds today and tonight with
a slight chance for snow showers Saturday. A somewhat stronger
storm will bring increasing winds Sunday...along with potential
for moderate turbulence and wind shear in the lee of the Sierra.
Snow showers are possible Sunday with increasing chances by Sunday
evening as the moisture with the next storm begins to arrive. JCM
For more information from the National Weather Service visit...