Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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FXUS65 KREV 192245
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
245 PM PST Mon Feb 19 2018

.SYNOPSIS...

A cold low pressure trough will remain over the region this week
with below normal temperatures and periods of snow showers through
this evening and again the middle into the end of the week.
The pattern remains active with additional storms possible next
weekend and into the start of the following week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

The cold and unstable core of the upper level low is centered over
Nevada this afternoon bringing additional rounds of snow showers.
These showers will be hit or miss, but with temperatures
struggling to reach freezing in even the warmest valleys, snow is
likely to briefly stick to the roads. However, with the breaks in
the clouds, the sun has helped these minor accumulations to
rapidly melt. A lot of the shower activity will wane after sunset,
but lake effect snow bands remain possible off of Pyramid and
Tahoe. Any snow that falls after the sun sets will make for slick
roads into Tuesday morning. Chances for snow showers greatly
diminish after midnight.

Overnight lows will be quite chilly tonight with teens and single
digits in warmer valleys, and below zero for many mountain
locations. It will remain cold on Tuesday, but winds will be light
and there will be some sun, so it won`t feel as cold as today has
been.

An elongated trough will move down the west coast on Wednesday
with light snow possible, mainly near the Oregon border and across
the Sierra. A stronger reinforcing piece of energy drops into the
main trough Thursday bringing better chances for snow throughout
the region and another blast of cold air. Travel may once again be
impacted, including both the morning and evening commutes. -Dawn

.LONG TERM...Saturday through Monday...

In the extended forecast, an upper-level blocking ridge will remain
parked roughly between Hawaii and the Aleutian Islands. This is
positioned far enough west to allow a series of cold shortwave lows
to drop along its periphery and into the western U.S this weekend
into early next week.

These shortwaves will bring reinforcing waves cold air into our area
with snow levels remaining near valley floors over the upcoming
week. These shortwaves will be slider type systems that are
inherently lower confidence when it comes to timing and
precipitation, but global models do show a potential for one by the
end of the weekend with a possible secondary wave early next week.

Too early to discuss any specifics with these systems as these
sliders typically don`t come into focus more than 2-3 days out so
should have a better idea on timing and snowfall by midweek.
Nonetheless they do look cold so precipitation would likely start
off as snowfall for all valleys along with a potential for strong
and gusty winds ahead the cold front. If you have any travel plans
into next week, make sure to keep up with the latest forecasts. For
more on the potential for active weather into March check out the
Week 2 Outlook below. Fuentes


.Week 2 Outlook...Feb 27th-Mar 4th...Issued 3am 2/19

After another very dry winter in the Sierra, conditions are
finally starting to look favorable for a transition to a more
stormy pattern. The high pressure that has been entrenched along
the west coast is finally forecast to retrograde westward likely
allowing storms from the Gulf of Alaska to again make their way
into the region. This will also be a cold pattern for the region
with below average temperatures likely to persist into early
March.

Next week into next weekend we could see multiple more cold
slider type storms with light to moderate addition snow amounts.
By the beginning of March there is a decent possibility that the
high pressure in Pacific will continue to retrograde allowing
stronger storms coming out of the Gulf of Alaska to move over the
Pacific before making it into the Sierra. This could allow the
first real chance of seeing strong cold storms into the region
than we did all "winter".

While there is never a guarantee for strong storms as far out as
week 2, the pattern is beginning to look favorable, and after
another record-breaking dry winter in the Sierra this would be a
welcome pattern change. -Zach

&&

.AVIATION...

Scattered snow showers through this evening will bring periods of
reduced ceilings and visibility with widespread terrain
obscuration. Any additional accumulation will be light. The one
exception would be if a lake effect snow band forms off of Tahoe,
which could bring higher accumulations to KTVL. Chances are about
30% of this occurring. Breezy northerly winds with gusts of 20-25
kts will weaken overnight, becoming light going into Tuesday.
Shallow ground fog is possible around KTRK Tuesday morning,
however with the clouds, widespread fog does not seem likely.
-Dawn

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/reno



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