Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV
FXUS65 KREV 252255 AAA
Area Forecast Discussion...Corrected
National Weather Service Reno NV
207 PM PDT WED MAY 25 2016
Corrected Aviation discussion
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue into this
evening. Shower chances decrease Thursday with a chance of showers
and thunderstorms returning Friday and Saturday. A warming trend
is expected into the holiday weekend. Dry conditions return next
week with above average temperatures.
Showers and isolated thunderstorms began late this morning and
will continue through the afternoon. The focus of these storms
this evening will be near and south of I-80. Expect coverage to
decrease later this evening with the loss of solar heating and
The forecast for Thursday appears much drier with very few if any
showers across the Eastern Sierra and Western Nevada. the models
show about 5 C of warming at mid levels which will produce a nice
cap. With low-levels seeing less significant warming, it looks
like mostly just cumulus. I did leave isolated showers over Mono
County where the mid-level warming is not quite as pronounced, but
thunderstorms do look unlikely.
Friday we expect to see the slow warming trend to continue with
some cooling aloft and a baggy trough over the Sierra for
Saturday. Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase again for
areas south of I-80 those days, but it dosn`t look like anything
huge. Scattered showers and storms look the worst to come out of
it and the storms should not be overly strong. The baggy trough
slowly pulls east Sunday, but the GFS is holding onto it a little
longer so left the slight chance of showers and storms there.
The warming trend continues into next week as high pressure builds
over the Sierra. Temps are expected to warm into the 80s in the
lower valleys and 70s in the Sierra. However, with temps aloft
warming and 500 mb temps near -10 C, we will only see some flat
cumulus or a couple buildups at best. Wallmann
Scattered showers and isolated -TSRA will continue through 04Z this
evening. Some small hail will occur with the strongest showers and
storms. Best chances will be south of Highway 50 after 00Z. MTN
OBSCN will also occur in the Sierra, generally for elevations above
9-10,000 feet MSL.
VFR overnight after showers diminish with light winds and VFR
Thursday as well. A few showers remain possible near KMMH, but
otherwise expect only scattered clouds with bases 11000 feet MSL.
A few more showers and storms are possible Friday and Saturday
south of I-80. Wallmann
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