Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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385
FXUS65 KREV 292220
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
320 PM PDT Mon May 29 2017

.SYNOPSIS...

Above average temperatures will persist through Tuesday with
continued spring Sierra snowmelt leading to cold and swift flows
near creeks and rivers. There will be a low chance for thunderstorms
near the Sierra this afternoon, and south of Highway 50 Tuesday.
A weak low will bring a cool down Wednesday with a few showers
possible. Warmer and drier weather returns for late week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

Added isolated showers and thunderstorms to some areas south of
Highway 50 and the Virginia Range (east of Reno) for Tuesday,
otherwise only minor changes to temperatures to insure a reasonable
day-to-day trend for the next few days.

Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms have
developed on the west slopes of the Sierra near the snow line and
north of Portola, with timing earlier and coverage greater than
yesterday. The earlier convection and greater coverage may be
partly due to a slight enhancement of upper lift/divergence ahead
of an incoming upper wave near the northern CA coast. Northeast
California/Sierra storms today should remain modest, with occasional
lightning strikes, wind gusts to 35 mph, and brief light to moderate
rain.

Sierra/northeast CA convective development is likely to fall off
quickly around sunset as it appears highly dependent on the daytime
heating (modest upper forcing). As we go into late afternoon and
early evening, the HRRR also shows a few cells trying to develop
out into western NV south of Highway 50 and west of Highway 95.
With a very dry sub-cloud layer out in the Basin, any cumulus
that manage to build up to moderate depth are unlikely to produce
measurable surface rain, especially given the expected weakness of
convective development.

Tuesday, isolated showers and thunderstorms were added to some areas
south of Highway 50 across Mono County and out into far western NV.
This is due to more of a southerly flow aloft with slower scouring
of instability in those areas compared to previous simulations.
Also, low level forcing looks better in far western NV compared with
today with a zephyr-like flow in the afternoon to aid convergence.

Wednesday, a trough axis will swing through northeast CA and western
NV. That disturbance is expected to have deeper moisture with which
to work. However, instability is very poor in simulations and there
will be some drier air in the low levels to overcome. Therefore,
while it looks like at least scattered showers in northeast CA closer
to the upper disturbance, western NV and the Sierra from around Tahoe
south may have difficulty getting more than a few brief showers
and/or virga. In any case, it will be considerably cooler with highs
around average on Wednesday. Snyder

.LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday...

Thursday through Saturday, moderate ridging aloft is expected to
build over the region with highs returning to well above average
by Saturday. On Sunday, simulations are still arguing a bit with
an upper low moving into the Northwest CONUS. The question is
whether the low will dig farther south into Oregon or remain mainly
over Washington. It is currently mainly a temperature and wind
forecast, with high temperature variations between the lower 80s
and lower 90s for western NV valleys depending on how close the
low gets (closer, cooler), with possible breezy conditions with
gusts around 30-40 mph if the stronger solutions pan out. Snyder

&&

.AVIATION...

Isolated to widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
are occurring over the Sierra today, mainly near and west of the
crest north of Highway 50. Activity should mainly remain west of a
KSVE to KTRK to KTVL line, but there is a 10% chance for a direct
hit at terminals along that line. Any storms should remain modest
with a few lightning strikes, brief light-moderate rain, and wind
gusts to 30 kts.

For Tuesday, SW winds increase with peak gusts to around 25 kts.
Isolated thunderstorms are still possible south of Highway 50 out
into far western NV. A few showers are possible on Wednesday as a
weak trough moves in, but it looks to remain VFR at this time.
Snyder/Wallmann

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/reno



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