Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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000
FXUS65 KREV 200900
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
200 AM PDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY MONDAY
AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT WITH 20 TO 25 DEGREES OF COOLING BY
TUESDAY. THERE ARE CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY WITH LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA. A BREAK IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY BEFORE A COLD, WET SYSTEM ARRIVES HEADING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. WEAK RIDGING
REMAINS OVER THE WEST TODAY WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY. MAJOR CHANGE IS ON TAP MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY AS A COLD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDES INTO THE WEST. WINDS
TO INCREASE MONDAY AHEAD OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT WITH WIDESPREAD
WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH AND WIND PRONE LOCATIONS POSSIBLY
REACHING UP TO 55 MPH. DESPITE DECENT WINDS ALOFT, THERE IS NOT
MUCH EVIDENCE OF A DOWNSLOPE SIGNATURE WITH THIS EVENT, HOWEVER,
THE EXTREME THERMAL GRADIENT ALONE WILL BE ENOUGH FOR STRONG WINDS
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. WINDS MAY PRODUCE AREAS OF
BLOWING DUST DOWNWIND OF SINKS AND DRY LAKE BEDS IN NORTHERN
WASHOE COUNTY AND IN THE CENTRAL BASIN EAST OF HIGHWAY 95 MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE SIERRA AND NORTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AS EARLY AS MONDAY AFTERNOON, SPREADING ACROSS WESTERN
NEVADA TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT HAVE A DEEP MOISTURE TAP TO
WORK WITH, BUT IS VERY DYNAMIC, WHICH SHOULD MAXIMIZE THE
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. EVEN SO, QPF TOTALS WILL LIKELY ONLY BE A
QUARTER TO A THIRD OF AN INCH IN THE WETTEST LOCATIONS, INCLUDING
THE SIERRA AND NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA, WITH ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS
OF AN INCH ELSEWHERE. THE MAJORITY OF THE RAIN AND SNOW WILL BE
POST-FRONTAL WITH THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION ANTICIPATED TUESDAY.
SNOW LEVELS WILL START AROUND 7500 FEET, BUT WILL RAPIDLY FALL TO
4500 TO 5500 FEET BEHIND THE FRONT. A FEW INCHES OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE IN THE SIERRA ABOVE 7000 FEET, BRIEFLY
IMPACTING TRAVEL OVER HIGHER SIERRA PASSES. WHILE SNOW WILL LIKELY
BE SEEN AT LOWER ELEVATIONS, THE LATE APRIL SUN ANGLE AND RECENT
WARM SPELL WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR ANY ACCUMULATION ON AREA
ROADWAYS. THIS SYSTEM BRINGS QUITE A BIT OF INSTABILITY WITH IT
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION, ESPECIALLY ON
TUESDAY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 WHERE THE BEST FORCING WILL BE.

EXPECT 20 TO 25 DEGREES OF COOLING MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW SETTLES ACROSS THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA. AS
THE SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES OUT BY WEDNESDAY MORNING, THE COLD AIR
MASS AND CLEARING SKIES WILL PRODUCE SOME OF THE COLDEST OVERNIGHT
LOW TEMPERATURES SEEN IN A COUPLE OF WEEKS. A WIDESPREAD FREEZE
IS NOT EXPECTED IN WESTERN NEVADA VALLEYS, BUT TEMPERATURES WILL
AROUND FREEZING WEDNESDAY MORNING. THOSE WITH SENSITIVE
VEGETATION SHOULD BE PREPARED. DJ

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

ZONAL FLOW INTO THE WEST COAST WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK, WITH THE STORM TRACK SHIFTING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
TO CALIFORNIA-NEVADA BY THE START OF THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING
THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT LATE SEASON PRECIPITATION EVENT NEXT
WEEKEND.

FOR WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY A FEW SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE NORTH OF
SUSANVILLE-LOVELOCK WITH ONLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AS THE
BEST FORCING REMAINS OVER OREGON. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE
MID 60S TO LOW 70S FOR WESTERN NEVADA WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO
UPPER 60S FOR THE SIERRA.

STORM TRACK WILL SHIFT TO CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA STARTING FRIDAY AS A
COLD UPPER LOW MOVES TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST AND IS
SUPPORTED BY A STRONG JET. THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS, BUT THE BIG PICTURE HAS REMAINED CONSISTENT THE LAST COUPLE
DAYS. THE LOW AND JET WILL DIRECT WAVES OF MOISTURE AND ENERGY INTO
THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA AS EARLY AS FRIDAY WITH A STRONGER
WAVE AND A POTENTIAL HEAVY PRECIPITATION EVENT FOR THE WEEKEND.

AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 SHOULD BE WILL BE ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE
JET WHICH WILL KEEP SNOW LEVELS BELOW 7000 FEET, WITH SNOW LEVELS AT
6000-8000 FEET SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL DURATION OF
THE EVENT, TOTAL LIQUID AMOUNTS OF 1-3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
SIERRA WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE 7000 FEET NEXT
WEEKEND. HIGH END TOTALS FOR WESTERN NEVADA OF 0.50 TO 1 INCH ARE
POSSIBLE. BRONG

&&

.AVIATION...

LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVER
THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA.

NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE WEST COAST MONDAY WITH STRONG WINDS
LIKELY.  THIS WILL LEAD TO MOUNTAIN WAVES WITH SURFACE GUSTS
TO 35-45 KTS MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY.  SHOWERS WILL ALSO
LEAD TO MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SNOW POSSIBLE AT THE SIERRA TERMINALS
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.  BRONG

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)






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