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000
FXUS66 KSGX 241013
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
315 AM PDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE WEST COAST
WILL MAINTAIN ONSHORE FLOW WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW
AVERAGE...AREAS OF NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG EXTENDING
INTO THE INLAND VALLEYS...AND WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND DESERTS. FOR TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...A STRONGER TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INLAND THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COULD
BRING PRECIPITATION FOLLOWED BY STRONGER WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE WEST COAST WILL MAINTAIN ONSHORE
FLOW WITH TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE...A MARINE LAYER DEPTH
NEAR 3000 FEET WITH AREAS OF NIGHT AND MORNING COASTAL LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG EXTENDING INTO THE FAR INLAND VALLEYS OR LOWER COASTAL
SLOPES...AND GUSTY WEST WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. WINDS
SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN A LITTLE
STRONGER FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
LITTLE CHANGE FOR MEMORIAL DAY VERSUS THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS. FOR
LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...A STRONGER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE 00Z
ECMWF OFFERS A PLAUSIBLE SCENARIO IN LINE WITH SLOWER AND MORE
CLOSED SYSTEMS OF THE PAST FEW WEEKS...BUT NOT AS SLOW AS THE PRIOR
12Z ECMWF RUN. THIS WOULD BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION INTO
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FOR LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH A FEW
SHOWERS LINGERING INTO LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. FOR
WHAT IT IS WORTH...A BLEND OF THE DOWNSCALED QPF FOR THE LAST TWO
00Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF YIELD RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGING FROM ONE TENTH
TO ONE QUARTER INCH NEAR THE COAST TO ONE HALF TO ONE INCH IN THE
MOUNTAINS. GIVEN THAT THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE YET TO LOCK ONTO THE
DETAILS OF THIS TROUGH AS IT MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...
THOSE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE FAR FROM CERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...
241000Z...COAST/VALLEYS...AREAS OF BKN-OVC STRATUS WILL CONTINUE
WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH BASES 2000-3000 FT MSL AND TOPS TO 3500
FT MSL THROUGH 16-18Z...EXCEPT LOCALLY UNTIL 19-20Z ALONG THE SAN
DIEGO COUNTY COAST. MOST VIS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 5 MI. STRATUS WILL
REDEVELOP EARLY THIS EVENING AND SPREAD INTO THE VALLEYS OVERNIGHT
WITH BASES 1500-2500 FT MSL AND TOPS TO 3000 FT MSL...WITH MID-LATE
MORNING CLEARING EXPECTED SATURDAY.

MTNS/DESERTS...WESTERLY WIND GUSTS AROUND 35 KT WILL OCCUR OVER THE
DESERT MTN SLOPES AND THROUGH/EAST OF SAN GORGONIO PASS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH UNRESTRICTED
VIS THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE 5-8 FT/8-10 SEC NW SWELL WILL WEAKEN THIS MORNING...WITH AN
IMPROVEMENT TO THE CHOPPY SEAS IN THE OUTER WATERS.

ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES TO 7.2 FEET AND BELOW NORMAL LOW
TIDES...WITH SWINGS OF 8.9 FEET...WILL COMBINE WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL SURF TO BRING A SMALL CHANCE OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING TODAY
THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY. STRONG RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MEMORIAL DAY...PARTLY DUE TO THE SWINGS IN THE TIDES.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...17
AVIATION/MARINE...MAXWELL