Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Diego, CA

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FXUS66 KSGX 062131
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
130 PM PST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT WILL BRING VERY WARM AND DRY
WEATHER WITH GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES...WITH THE WARMEST
DAYS MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WHEN DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE
MID TO UPPER EIGHTIES IN MANY AREAS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THE RIDGE
WILL WEAKEN SLOWLY...SO TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE UNTIL
NEXT WEEKEND WHEN ONSHORE FLOW AND A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER RETURN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

AS EXPECTED...WINDS HAVE DROPPED BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS REMAIN NEAR 12 MBS OFFSHORE
FROM TONOPAH NV AT MIDDAY...BUT WERE ONLY AROUND 2 MBS FROM THE LOWER
DESERTS TO THE COAST. SKIES WERE CLEAR AT 1 PM PST WITH TEMPERATURES
IN THE 70S WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS.

A HIGH WIND WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED BEGINNING TOMORROW AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR SANTA ANA WIND-PRONE AREAS ALONG THE
COASTAL SLOPES AND BELOW THE PASSES AND CANYONS. UPPER-LEVEL
SUPPORTS MARGINAL...BUT THE SFC GRADIENT WILL BE VERY STRONG
AND CAPABLE OF GENERATING LOCAL GUSTS TO 65 MPH OR MORE IN THESE WIND-
PRONE AREAS. WINDS WILL BE NORTHEAST TO EAST AND GUSTY OTHERWISE
WEST OF THE MTS. THIS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A HIGH IMPACT EVENT...
BUT THE WINDS WILL BE QUITE STRONG IN SPOTS AND CAPABLE OF CREATING
A HAZARD TO TRAVELERS.

A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE WEST THROUGH TUE.
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE GREAT BASIN IN
RESPONSE...OFFSHORE WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER SOCAL AND BECOME STRONG
AND GUSTY BELOW FAVORED PASSES AND CANYONS. WINDS WILL LIKELY BE
GUSTY MUCH OF THE DAY IN THESE AREAS WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS LIKELY
SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE AS WELL...
WITH A FEW RECORDS LIKELY TO FALL EARLY NEXT WEEK. GRADUALLY COOLER
AS THE RIDGE DEAMPLIFIES LATER IN THE WEEK...BUT CONTINUED VERY DRY
AND MILD.

THE MODELS INDICATE A WEAK TROUGH WILL TAKE A RUN AT THE RIDGE NEXT
WEEKEND...AND WHILE IT MAY BUMP UP HUMIDITY LEVELS A BIT ACROSS THE
SOUTHLAND...NO PRECIP IS LIKELY. THE DRY AND MILD WEATHER LOOKS TO
LAST INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK WITH BOTH THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF MODELS ON
BOARD FOR MORE RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE WEST. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR ANY
PRECIP LOOKS TO BE ABOUT THE 20TH OF THE MONTH BASED ON THE EXTENDED
GFS RUN.


.AVIATION...

062100...UNRESTRICTED VIS AND MOSTLY SKC THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. NE
TO E WINDS 15-25 KT WITH GUSTS 35-45 KT THROUGH AND BELOW PASSES/
CANYONS...AND ALONG COASTAL SLOPES AND COASTAL FOOTHILLS...WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...PRODUCING AREAS OF MOD-STG UDDFS/
LLWS OVER AND W OF THE MTNS. SOME GUSTY NE WINDS COULD SURFACE AT
KSNA THIS AFTERNOON BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. FOR SUNDAY...LOOKING LIKE
KONT AND KSNA WILL SEE STRONG SURFACE NE WINDS BY ABOUT 07/1800-2000
UTC...AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE REST OF SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE... 100 PM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR ORANGE COUNTY INLAND AREAS-RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
     SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN BERNARDINO AND
     RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE-SAN DIEGO COUNTY
     MOUNTAINS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS-SAN GORGONIO PASS NEAR
     BANNING-SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.

PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...JAD
AVIATION/MARINE...HARRISON



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