Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Diego, CA

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000
FXUS66 KSGX 301526
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
826 AM PDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY
INLAND...WHILE A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER KEEPS COOLER...MARINE
AIR ALONG THE COAST. AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL DECREASE THIS
MORNING...THEN RETURN AND GRADUALLY SPREAD FARTHER INLAND THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST AND A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
DEVELOPS OVER THE WEST. INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THE TROUGH WILL MEAN GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS AGAIN OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AND DESERTS BY LATE MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR...TO A BIT
BELOW AVERAGE MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO INCREASE MAX TEMPS INLAND TODAY.

MARINE STRATUS WAS EXTENSIVE OVER THE CA COASTAL WATERS EARLY THIS
MORNING AND EXTENDED INTO THE WESTERN VALLEYS. THE 12Z MIRAMAR
SOUNDING INDICATED THE LAYER WAS FAIRLY SHALLOW THOUGH AND TOPPED BY
A STRONG 12 DEGREE C INVERSION BASED NEAR 1200 FT MSL. THIS WAS
ABOUT 700 FT LOWER THAN FRI MORNING. WINDS WERE LIGHT AT ALL
REPORTING SITES.

THE SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER AND DECREASED CLOUD DEPTH WILL ALLOW FOR
A FAST BURN OFF OF THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG INLAND THIS MORNING. SOME
CLOUDS AND FOG ARE LIKELY TO LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON CLOSER TO
THE COAST HOWEVER...DUE TO THE STRONG INVERSION. IT WILL BE A VERY
WARM AFTERNOON WELL INLAND WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE
90S...AND REACHING 102 TO 105 IN THE LOWER DESERTS. SLIGHTLY COOLER
ON SUNDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES AND THE MARINE LAYER BEGINS TO
DEEPEN.

FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TODAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAYS WITH TEMPERATURES
TOPPING OUT INLAND IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S IN THE HIGH DESERT AND
103-105 IN THE LOWER DESERTS...AS THE UPPER RIDGE MAXIMIZES AND
EVENTUALLY MOVES INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION ON SUNDAY. A FAST
MOVING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE...THE FIRST IN A LIKELY PROGRESSION
OF ADDITIONAL WAVES LATER IN THE WEEK...WILL MOVE ACROSS SOCAL ON
MONDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING A MUCH MORE PRONOUNCED MARINE
LAYER AND INLAND INTRUSION OF MARINE AIR AND LOW CLOUDS.

ON TUESDAY...BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE A HEALTHY ONSHORE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES ZONAL. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE BUT
WEAKER WILL PASS THROUGH WEDNESDAY...KEEPING OUR REGION IN AN
ONSHORE DOMINANT PATTERN WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL.

PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL BE PRETTY HEALTHY MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND
WESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS LIKELY
TUESDAY THROUGH THE MOUNTAIN PASSES AND INTO THE DESERTS. GUSTS OF
50 TO 60 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE AND MAY REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA
IN THE MORE WIND PRONE LOCATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS.

SOME BETTER RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY WITH A POSSIBLE STRONGER LOW
MOVING THROUGH CALIFORNIA THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE ECM IS THE
STRONGEST SOLUTION WITH THIS FEATURE AND COULD BRING SOME COASTAL
DRIZZLE ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...
301530Z...LOW CLOUDS...WITH BASES FROM 1000 TO 1300 FT MSL AND TOPS
NEAR 1700 FT MSL WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL AREAS THIS MORNING.
AREAS OF FOG WITH VIS 1-3SM WHERE CLOUDS INTERSECT HIGHER TERRAIN.
LOW CLOUDS WILL CLEAR TOWARDS THE COAST BETWEEN 17Z AND 19Z THIS
MORNING. PATCHY LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN AT THE BEACHES THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BEGIN SPREADING INLAND AFT 03Z
SUN WITH BASES A FEW HUNDRED FEET HIGHER.

OTHERWISE...FEW/SCT HIGH CLOUDS WITH UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH
TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...

830 AM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...

830 AM...SOME SOUTH SWELL OF 5 FEET/14 SECONDS IS LIKELY TO BE
GENERATED FROM HURRICANE ANDRES. THIS COULD BRING SOME ELEVATED SURF
AND STRONGER RIP CURRENTS TO NORTHERN ORANGE COUNTY LATE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.


&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.


&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...JAD/BROTHERTON
AVIATION/MARINE...PG


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