Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Juan, PR

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FXCA62 TJSJ 220905
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
505 AM AST MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SYNOPSIS...TUTT LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION...WILL AMPLIFY INTO THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN BY MIDWEEK.
TROPICAL ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION LATE
TODAY AND TUESDAY...INDUCING A GENERAL INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS MOVING WEST SOUTHWESTWARD
OVER EASTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY THIS MORNING. UNDER AN EAST NORTHEAST WIND FLOW...PASSING
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS DURING THE REST OF THE MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...NOT
SIGNIFICANT OR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...THIS MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING
AND LOCAL EFFECTS TO INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN...INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING DEPICTED A
TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THIS WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE WESTWARD TODAY AND TUESDAY. THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WAVE WILL AFFECT THE LOCAL REGION LATE TODAY AND TUESDAY...INDUCING
A GENERAL INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE
REGION. THE GFS COMPUTER GUIDANCE SUGGESTS PWAT VALUES SLIGHTLY
ABOVE 2.00 INCHES INTO THE MIDDLE OF WEEK. LATE THIS AFTERNOON...
TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY...FREQUENT PASSING SHOWERS WITH
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE EXPECTED ACROSS USVI AND THE EASTERN PUERTO
RICO.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL TERMINALS
TIL 22/10Z. THEREAFTER...LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND PASSING
SHRA/ISOLD TSRA IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA
AS A TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES THE LOCAL AREA. VCTS/VCSH LIKELY AT
TKPK AND TNCM FM 22/10Z-22/15Z THEN SPREADING OVR RMNDR OF TAF SITES
AFT 22/15Z-22/23Z AS TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WITH
BRIEF MVFR CONDS. SFC WINDS FM NE AT 5 KTS OR LESS BCMG FM E-ESE AT
10-15 KTS AFT 22/14Z. L/LVL WNDS FM E- ENE AT 5-15 KTS BLO FL200
BCMG MAINLY LGT/VRB ABV AND UP TO FL 350.   HIGHER SFC WND GUST NR
CONVCT ACTVTY DURG PRD.

&&

.MARINE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO MARINE GRIDS OTHER THAN THE
ADDITION OF MORE WEATHER TONIGHT AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SEAS IN
OUTER ATLANTIC WATERS. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH SEAS GENERALLY
BELOW 5 FEET EXCEPT IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  88  79  88  78 /  60  50  50  30
STT  88  79  87  78 /  70  50  50  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

09/72




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