Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Juan, PR

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FXCA62 TJSJ 011819
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
219 PM AST TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DRIFT SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN TOMORROW...LINGERING OVER THE REGION THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND ACROSS WESTERN AND
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THIS ACTIVITY WAS THE RESULT OF
A TROPICAL WAVE JUST OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THIS WAVE IS
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AREA OF MOISTURE WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY OVER THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE BACK SIDE OF
THE WAVE WILL STILL PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO ON WEDNESDAY.

THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS WAVE IS THE BEST MOISTURE
THAT WILL OCCUR ACROSS PUERTO RICO FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS. SOME
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH DIURNAL
INDUCED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER WESTERN AND INTERIOR
SECTIONS EACH AFTERNOON...BUT OTHERWISE SIGNIFICANT FEATURES ARE
NOT SEEN UNTIL FRIDAY NEXT WEEK...WHEN A TROPICAL WAVE WILL
APPROACH TO THE LESSER ANTILLES. SOME AREAS OF SAHARAN DUST WERE
SEEN IN THE AREAS OF DRIER AIR...BUT THE BULK OF THE DUST IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT TJSJ...TJMZ AND
POSSIBLE TJBQ THRU 01/23Z AS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES OVER THE LOCAL
REGION. MAINLY VFR WITH FEW TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ACROSS TNCM AND TKPK WITH VCSH ACROSS TIST AND TISX. EAST WINDS BLO
FL200 AT 10-20 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS NEAR TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...A RELATIVELY QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS. SEAS OF 4 FEET OR LESS AND WINDS OF 15
KNOTS OR LESS ARE EXPECTED.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  79  91  78  93 /  50  40  20  10
STT  80  88  79  88 /  40  40  10  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

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