Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Juan, PR

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FXCA62 TJSJ 030954
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
554 AM AST MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA
FROM THE EAST AND HOLD THROUGH MID WEEK. RIDGE PATTERN ALOFT WILL
THEN ERODE LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ESTABLISHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND INTO THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
MAINTAIN MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. TROPICAL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO INCLUDING THE SAN JUAN METROPOLITAN
AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNT WERE LESS THAN HALF INCH.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO ERODE UNDER BUILDING RIDGE.
RIDGE ALOFT WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY WITH A GENERALLY
FAIR AND MAINLY STABLE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA. ALTHOUGH
LATE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN THE TRADES AS
WELL AS LOCALLY INDUCED AFTERNOON SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
EACH DAY. HAZY SKIES EXPECTED TODAY AND TUESDAY UNDER SAL.

AS RIDGE ALOFT ERODES AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ESTABLISHES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND INTO THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN...
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO RECOVER SOMEWHAT BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
THEREFORE...A SHIFT TO A WETTER PATTERN COULD BE EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE LOCAL
TERMINALS. BRIEF SHRA/TSRA ARE MOVING CLOSE TO TJPS AND ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE MOVING TO THE WEST...AFFECTING TJPS THROUGH 03/10Z AND
POSSIBLY CAUSING SOME VCSH AT TJMZ. THINGS SHOULD QUIET DOWN AFTER
03/12Z LEAVING ONLY A FEW CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF BRIEF
SHOWERS THEREAFTER. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE EAST AT 5-10KT THROUGH
03/13Z THEN INCREASE TO AROUND 15KT AND GUSTY...STILL FROM THE
EAST BUT WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS.

&&

.FIRE...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO ERODE UNDER BUILDING
RIDGE. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AROUND 45-50 PERCENT AND WINDS BETWEEN
15 AND 20 MPH EXPECTED TODAY. SEE THE FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR
MORE DETAILS.

&&

.MARINE...CHOPPY SEAS EXPECTED TODAY WITH SEAS UP TO 6 FEET AND
WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  90  79  90  79 /  30  30  30  20
STT  90  79  90  78 /  20  30  30  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

25/23


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