Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 281031
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
431 AM CST Tue Feb 28 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 408 AM CST Tue Feb 28 2017

Several weather impacts are expected across the outlook area today
as a low pressure system and associated cold front track across the
CWA.  Early this morning surface low pressure was centered over
south central NE and north central KS with an associated warm front
lifting northward out of the CWA into NE.  With a decent pressure
gradient in place across eastern KS along with a strong 50-60kt low-
level jet, breezy southerly winds were gusting 25-35mph early this
morning.  These strong southerly winds supported warm-air advection
with early morning temperatures only dropping into the upper
50s/around 60 degrees across eastern KS with temperatures in the 40s
across north central KS near the surface low.

Models show the cold front moving into north central KS this morning
and bisecting the CWA by around noon before shifting into east
central KS by early this evening (situated roughly along the I-35
corridor by 00z).  With this cold front gradually tracking eastward
across the CWA today, significant ranges in temperatures, dewpoints,
and winds are expected.  A large spread in high temperatures is
expected as far east central KS should remain in the warm sector all
day, resulting in well above seasonal normal conditions with highs
reaching into the mid/upper 70s (and possibly even near 80 degrees).
 Across north central KS where the front will pass through by mid
morning with winds shifting to the north, expect high temperatures
to only reach into the mid/upper 50s.  Short-range models are
showing breezy winds persisting across east central KS all day ahead
of the frontal passage, with gusts of 25-35mph.  Due to the
combination of gusty winds, dry fuels, and low RHs, a Red Flag
Warning has been issued for this afternoon for portions of east
central KS.  See the Fire Weather discussion below for further
details.

While mid-level moisture will increase across north central KS with
the cold front, model soundings show plenty of low-level dry air in
place, which will take awhile to overcome today.  As a result, short-
range models do not show any precipitation developing until late
afternoon/early this evening.  With instability increasing over the
warm sector ahead of the frontal passage, there is a chance for a
few thunderstorms to develop across far east central KS late this
afternoon into this evening with a few strong storms possible.
However, the greater potential for strong storms is expected to be
across Missouri, but cannot rule out some hail and strong winds with
any stronger storms that develop.  More precipitation is expected as
the mid-level trough advances into the region tonight/overnight with
short-range models showing a band of precipitation developing and
tracking eastward across the CWA.  However, there is still
uncertainty in how far south this precipitation will extend across
the CWA tonight, with the best chances being focused near the KS/NE
border before diminishing Wednesday morning.  Models have been
trending a few degrees warmer with surface temperatures overnight
with lows ranging from the upper 20s to upper 30s. Despite model
soundings showing sufficient saturation in the dendritic growth
zone, these near-surface temperatures above freezing will keep
precipitation either as rain or as a rain/snow mix for most
locations by late evening/overnight.  As a result, any snow
accumulations will be limited to perhaps a light dusting.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 408 AM CST Tue Feb 28 2017

The mid and long range portion of the forecast is rather uneventful
at this time. It will be characterized by a warming trend throughout
the time frame all the way into Sunday. Do expect one cold front on
Thursday, but cold advection will be modest and temperatures in the
50s are probable for highs. Strong warm advection will be ongoing
Friday into the weekend though with significant moisture advection
during the weekend as well as a strong storm system is progged to
move across the northern Plains. This system will push a strong
dryline and a cold front through the area, probably late on Sunday.
There is a good chance for instability to develop with the warm
temperatures and increasing dewpoints in the low levels beneath
strong westerlies aloft. However, the potential for thunderstorms is
currently mitigated by indications of a rather strong capping
inversion. The storm system is strong enough that it will be worth
monitoring, but currently appears that the main local impacts will
be to temperatures and wind direction/speed for the weekend into
early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1143 PM CST Mon Feb 27 2017

MVFR stratus was advecting northward across the terminals with
ceilings of 1200 to 1800 feet. There is the potential between 7Z
and 11Z TUE of ceilings lowering to 600 to 800 feet. The stratus
should shift east of the terminals by 15Z TUE. There will chance
for light rain to develop across the terminals this evening. Some
of the rain may be mixed with snow at KMHK during the late evening
hours.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 408 AM CST Tue Feb 28 2017

Extreme fire danger is expected across far east central KS today due
to dry fuels, low RH values, and gusty winds.  Breezy southerly
winds ahead of the advancing cold front easily will gust upwards of
25-35mph through this afternoon, resulting in decent warm-air
advection boosting high temperatures into the mid/upper 70s.  The
RAP/HRRR models show dewpoint temperatures dropping into the 30s
ahead of the front this afternoon, which would cause RH values to
plunge into the low/mid 20 percent range.  Due to the potential for
these dewpoint temperatures to be potentially lower than currently
forecast, feel that the combination of low RH values along with the
very gusty southerly winds warrants a Red Flag Warning for east
central KS.  This Red Flag Warning will be in effect from 18z-00z
today.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from noon today to 6 PM CST this evening for
KSZ040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...Barjenbruch
AVIATION...Gargan
FIRE WEATHER...Hennecke



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