Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

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000
FXUS65 KVEF 010920
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
220 AM PDT SAT NOV 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD PACIFIC STORM WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY AND SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH RAIN SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW. DRY
CONDITIONS WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND ARE EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...VERY FEW CHANGES WERE NEEDED IN
THE SHORT TERM THIS MORNING. THE WELL ADVERTISED PACIFIC TROUGH IS
CURRENTLY MOVING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SIERRA WITH VALLEY RAIN
AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS REPORTED IN THE AREA. THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY ABOVE 7000 FEET REMAINS IN PLACE AND LOOKS GOOD FOR THE
SOUTHERN SIERRA THROUGH THIS MORNING. THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IN
THE SIERRA OF INYO COUNTY SHOULD OCCUR BETWEEN NOW AND SUNRISE BUT
LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE PRECIPITATION IS STILL EXPECTED TO MARCH EASTWARD THROUGH
THE DAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY [THOUGH
LIMITED] WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 14Z AND 18Z THIS MORNING. ONE CONCERN
THAT WAS ADDRESSED THIS MORNING IS WIND. WINDS NEAR THE BAND OF
PRECIPITATION HAVE BEEN GUSTING A BIT HIGHER THAN ANTICIPATED THIS
MORNING AND WITH A STEADY EASTWARD PROGRESSION EXPECTED HAVE OPTED
TO GO WITH A WIND ADVISORY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA NORTH AND WEST OF
LAS VEGAS TODAY AS WELL AS NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY. THE PERIOD OF
GUSTY WINDS AT ANY ONE LOCATION MAY BE BRIEF [1-2 HOURS] BUT WITH
SUBSTANTIAL GUSTS POSSIBLE I FELT THE ADVISORY WAS JUSTIFIED. I ALSO
ADDED AREAS OF BLOWING DUST INTO THE FORECAST WHERE THE STRONGEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED.

WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE AFTER 00Z SUNDAY AS THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE AREA. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MUCH CALMER
WINDS SUNDAY. THIS RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND A WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS
SHOULD RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS AROUND THE AREA SUNDAY. MODELS ARE
STILL NOT OVERLY AMBITIOUS WITH QPF AMOUNTS SUNDAY SO LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE VALLEYS. IF A FEW SHOWERS
MOVE OVER THE MOUNTAINS THERE COULD BE AND INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ABOVE
6500 FEET.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER TODAY. TEMPERATURES AS OF
130 AM WERE RUNNING IN THE UPPER 60`S AND LOW 70`S IN THE LAS VEGAS
VALLEY. THIS WILL LIKELY BE WARMER THAN THE TEMPERATURES LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. A WEAK REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR WILL MOVE IN SUNDAY
RESULTING IN ANOTHER COUPLE DEGREES OF COOLING.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...BY MONDAY MORNING THE TROUGH
AXIS SHOULD BE JUST EAST OF OUR AREA. THERE IS GOOD MODEL AND
ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT ON THE TROUGH SPLITTING TUESDAY WITH A PIECE OF
ENERGY DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES...BUT THERE IS
SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN WHERE THIS PIECE ENDS UP AND WHETHER IT CLOSES
OFF OR REMAINS PROGRESSIVE. A MAJORITY OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DEPICT A
CLOSED LOW OVER TEXAS OR NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
BUT THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF IS MUCH FARTHER WEST...NEAR THE MIDDLE OF
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...AND SHOWS MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF
TROPICAL STORM VANCE WRAPPING AROUND OVER MUCH OF ARIZONA BY
THURSDAY. AS NOTED...THIS IS AN OUTLIER SOLUTION...AND THUS FAR THIS
SEASON THE ECMWF HAS HAD DIFFICULTY HANDLING EASTERN PACIFIC
TROPICAL SYSTEMS. THUS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS MOSTLY CLEAR AND
DRY THROUGHOUT WITH A FASTER WARMING TREND THAN THE ECMWF WOULD
SUGGEST...WITH HIGH TEMPS AT KLAS BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S BY LATE IN
THE WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING GUSTY
WINDS...LOWERED CIGS AND CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS TODAY. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY AND CIGS AT OR BELOW 5K FEET WILL OCCUR
BETWEEN 14Z-18Z THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL BE INCREASING THIS MORNING
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KTS POSSIBLE BY THE AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DECREASE AND MAY TAKE ON A MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION VERY
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH CIGS BETWEEN 5-10K FEET STILL POSSIBLE.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS 20-30 KTS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
CLOUD BASES 5K-10K FEET ALONG WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF KDAG-KLAS-KIGM LINE TODAY WITH THE GREATEST
CHANCES IN AND AROUND KBIH. CIGS AND VSBY IN VALLEYS MAY BRIEFLY
LOWER FURTHER NEAR ANY SHRA. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AND MECHANICAL
TURBULENCE WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA IN THAT TIME
FRAME.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&

$$

WOLCOTT/MORGAN

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