Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

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000
FXUS65 KVEF 270236
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
736 PM PDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN MAINLY
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. OTHERWISE EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH A
WARMING TREND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE WARMEST WEATHER OF
THE YEAR SO FAR IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.
&&

.UPDATE...A TON OF CIRRUS HAS WORKED IN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA AS THE JET STREAM PASSES BY OVERHEAD ACCOMPANIED BY A NICE
AMOUNT OF HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE. THE CIRRUS WAS ENHANCING OFF THE SAN
BERNARDINO RANGE ESPECIALLY INTO THE MORONGO BASIN AND TO AREAS JUST
EAST OF BARSTOW. AS A RESULT, I ADJUSTED UP SKY COVER FOR TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40. AREAS IN MOHAVE COUNTY MAY BE A
BIT UNDERDONE STILL TOMORROW MORNING WITH SKY COVER BUT THIS CAN BE
ADJUSTED LATER ON.

RADAR SHOWED A FEW SHOWERS STILL ACROSS LINCOLN COUNTY MOVING EAST
AND A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN ESMERALDA AND NORTHERN INYO
COUNTIES. ACTIVITY IN GENERAL HAS NOT BEEN AS EXTENSIVE AS YESTERDAY
EVENING AND THUS WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING SHOULD DIMINISH EARLIER
THAN WHAT WE SAW LAST NIGHT.

OTHERWISE THE FORECAST LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH AROUND 06Z TUESDAY OR SO THEN DECREASE TO AROUND 8-10 KTS.
ONCEA AGAIN ON TUESDAY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 4-8 KTS SHOULD
BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY BETWEEN 22Z TUESDAY AND 00Z WEDNESDAY AND
INCREASE TO 10-14 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 22 KTS. SCT-BKN CLOUDS MAINALY
AOA 25K FEET WITH A FEW BASES AS LOW AS 12K FEET.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...MAINLY DIURNAL WIND DIRECTIONS THROUGH TONIGHT AT 15
KTS OR LESS. SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 25K FEET TONIGHT SOUTH OF KIYK-KDRA-
KSGU LINE. NORTH OF THIS LINE THERE WILL SHRA/TSRA THROUGH ABOUT 06Z
TUESDAY OR SO. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...MVFR OR LOWER VSBY IN
HEAVIER SHRA AND CIGS TO 5K-8K FEET ARE POSSIBLE. LOCAL MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TUESDAY.
&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 326 PM PDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S.
DURING THE SHORT TERM. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL SKIRT THE AREA
TOMORROW BRINGING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE MAIN TROUGH
WILL WEAKEN AND BEGIN TO EJECT EASTWARD ON THURSDAY ALLOWING FOR
MORE ZONAL FLOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL
BRING A WARMING TREND WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES CREEPING BACK ABOVE
NORMAL BY THURSDAY.


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE STORY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE AFTERNOON HIGHS PUSHING
THE CENTURY MARK ACROSS MOST DESERT LOCALES THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK...AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE TRAVERSES OVER THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND. MINOR DIFFERENCES CONTINUE TO EXIST WITH OPERATIONAL
GUIDANCE REGARDING THE OVERALL AMPLITUDE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
RIDGE. HOWEVER ALL BASE AND DERIVED GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
CONSISTENTLY INDICATE HIGH TEMPERATURES AT LEAST WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES OF EACH OTHER FROM MODEL TO MODEL OVER THE WEEKEND...FURTHER
INCREASING CONFIDENCE OF THE FIRST 100 DEGREE DAY OF 2015 FOR MANY
DESERT LOCALES...INCLUDING LAS VEGAS. BOTH THE OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF
INDICATE A FAIRLY VIGOROUS TROUGH IMPINGING ON THE GREAT BASIN LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WHICH WILL INCREASE SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA IN THIS TIMEFRAME. THIS WILL PROMOTE
GOOD MIXING...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL BUMP UP
HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES FROM FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LIKELY
MAKING THIS THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE YEAR THUS FAR. TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL A FEW DEGREES MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE PASSING
TROUGH...BUT WILL REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...STACHELSKI
PREVIOUS...BERC/PULLIN

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