Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

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FXUS65 KVEF 250319 AAA
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
718 PM PST WED DEC 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT
BRINGING STRONG WINDS TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEVADA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA. SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED IN THE SIERRA THIS EVENING AND
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN ON CHRISTMAS DAY. MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON
CHRISTMAS DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES LINGERING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. NORTHERLY FLOW AND ANOTHER SYSTEM PROMISES MORE COLD
WEATHER NEXT WEEK.
&&

.UPDATE...BAND OF HIGH CLOUDS THAT HAS HUNG AROUND MOST OF THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST AND IS MAINLY
COVERING MOHAVE COUNTY. OUTSIDE OF SOME LOWER CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN
INYO AND ESMERALDA COUNTY...SKIES ARE MAINLY CLEAR THIS EVENING.
THESE CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY FILL IN LATER TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION...BUT FOR NOW WILL MAKE A FEW CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST AND REMOVE THE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. SOUTHWEST WINDS
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT HAVE ALSO BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP AND WILL BACK OFF
ON THE TIMING OF THE WINDS FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE OF HOURS. NEW MODEL
RUNS SUGGEST THAT THE WIND ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FOR
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WILL MAKE THAT DECISION LATER THIS EVENING WHEN
MORE MODELS ARE AVAILABLE.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING WITH
PREFRONTAL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 8 TO 12 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS
WILL DEVELOPING LATER THIS EVENING.WINDS WILL TRANSITION TO
NORTHWESTERLY WITH FROPA BETWEEN 10Z-12Z THURSDAY. WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT THURSDAY WILL GENERALLY BE 15-25 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 40 KTS WITH
SOME DECREASE IN GUST SPEEDS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS OVER THE SIERRA THIS
EVENING AND THEN SPREADING INTO CENTRAL NYE AND NORTHERN LINCOLN
COUNTIES OVERNIGHT AND EVENTUALLY REACHING NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY BY
CHRISTMAS MORNING. SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL
INCREASE THIS EVENING ACROSS THE DESERTS WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS
MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST CWA SPREADING SOUTH OVERNIGHT. WIDESPREAD
GUSTY NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED CHRISTMAS DAY.
&&

PREV DISCUSSION
237 PM PST WED DEC 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER TODAY HAS HINDERED DAYTIME HEATING AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO FALL SHORT OF FORECASTED NUMBERS. IN
AREAS WHERE CLOUDS WERE LESS OPAQUE...SUCH AS THE WESTERN MOJAVE
DESERT, TEMPERATURES WERE WARMING AT A QUICKER PACE AND SHOULD GET
CLOSER TO FORECASTED HIGHS. SKIES WERE CLEARING OVER THE NORTHWEST
CWA AT 2 PM AS ABUNDANT LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE WAS GETTING BLOCKED
BY THE SIERRA RANGE AND HIGH CLOUD COVER WAS MOVING OFF TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST.

WINTER WAS DELAYED BY ONLY A FEW DAYS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS A
RELATIVELY MILD STRETCH OF WEATHER COMES TO AN ABRUPT END. A STORM
CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA IS EXPECTED TO BRING WINDY AND
CHILLER WEATHER TO THE AREA BEGINNING TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH
FRIDAY. WIND ADVISORIES ARE IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH CHRISTMAS MORNING.
WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 40-50 MPH ARE EXPECTED AND WILL MAKE TEMPERATURES
FEEL MUCH COOLER THAN THEY ACTUALLY ARE. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
WILL ALSO GO INTO EFFECT FOR LINCOLN COUNTY LATER THIS EVENING AND
CONTINUE INTO CHRISTMAS MORNING. GENERALLY...LESS THAN 3 INCHES OF
SNOW IS EXPECTED BUT AN INCH OR TWO MORE COULD ACCUMULATE IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OVER NORTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY. THE AIRMASS IS COLD
ENOUGH THAT SNOW IS LIKELY AT THE VALLEY FLOORS. THE SIERRA COULD
GET A QUICK SHOT OF SNOW THIS EVENING WITH UP TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE
AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT
BASIN MOUNTAINS INCLUDING THE SPRING MOUNTAINS AND SHEEP RANGE, AN
INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

BRISK NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION ON CHRISTMAS DAY
WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS AND A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE CENTRAL
NEVADA MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 5 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL BUT THE WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL COOLER. WINDS WILL
DECREASE THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT REMAIN GUSTY WITH LOCAL GUSTY
CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW AMPLE
RADIATIONAL COOLING TO TAKE PLACE UNDER CLEAR SKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO PLUNGE SATURDAY MORNING WITH MANY DESERT LOCATIONS
REACHING SUBFREEZING CONDITIONS.
$$

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

OVERALL WE ARE LOOKING AT AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES UNDER A GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE FLOW WILL BE
RELATIVELY LIGHT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS. THE GFS
AND ECMWF ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT BRINGING A DEEPENING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DOWN THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW INTO OUR AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. BOTH MODELS INDICATE THIS TO BE A
MOISTURE STARVED SYSTEM WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS
OVER LINCOLN AND NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTIES. DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEAST
OF THE AREA. THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THE TROUGH WILL BE INCREASING
NORTH WINDS MONDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD WINDY
CONDITIONS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS.
&&

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...SPOTTERS
ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

GORELOW/SALMEN/HARRISON

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