Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

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781
FXUS65 KVEF 220919 AAA
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
215 AM PDT Sun Oct 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...High pressure will build over the region
today and remain in place through much of the upcoming week.
Temperatures will climb well above normal by Monday and Tuesday and
remain warm and dry through the end of next week. &&

.Short Term...through Wednesday Night.

Mostly clear skies with seasonable temperatures are expected today
with breezy north winds (though lighter than yesterday) expected
once again down the Colorado River. Starting Monday, strong high
pressure will build over California and Nevada resulting in warming
temperatures and a strengthening pressure gradient over the region.
This will lead to another round of gusty north winds down the
Colorado River, and allow for regional temps to climb well above
normal Monday and Tuesday.  Boosted temperatures upward a few
degrees, but remained a bit conservative compared to the very warm
GFS based guidance which suggests mid 90s (near record highs) in Las
Vegas and triple digits down the Colorado River.  High pressure
begins to weaken slightly Wednesday, which should result in some
modest cooling, but temperatures will remain well above normal.

.Long Term...Thursday through Saturday.

One final bump in the road Thursday and Friday before high amplitude
ridging takes hold over the weekend. The "bump" refers to a system
diving south through the southern Great Basin or Intermountain
Region...depending on the model chosen. The ECMWF remains the
sharpest, most westward solution of the trough and associated cold
front while the GFS is weaker and the CMC is well east of the area.
While all solutions would likely be dry for us, the ECMWF would
feature windier and much cooler conditions.

Forecast temperatures are more reflective of the GFS and it`s
associated MOS guidance numbers for the long term period which
maintains above normal temperatures. Adjustments can be made if
future model runs warrant changes. Regarding winds, upper level
support and deep layer unidirectional northerly flow point to
stronger winds aloft mixing to the surface Thursday afternoon and
lingering into Friday before support collapses as the system moves
east by Saturday. Model spread remains sufficiently large overall
with trough sharpness and strength of northern push to continue
using caution in determining wind speeds, the possible issuance of
any wind hazard products and discussing impacts.

For what its worth, the GFS and CMC are very similar to the previous
00Z model runs while the ECMWF has trended towards the GFS somewhat.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Generally light winds are expected today as high
pressure builds over the region. Gusty north winds will return
Monday and Tuesday through and conditions will remain dry with
minimum humidity values dropping into the single digits and teens.
Fire danger will remain elevated through midweek, possibly
approaching localized Red Flag Conditions in the Colorado River
Valley at times.

&&

.AVIATION...For McCarran...Light winds favoring diurnal trends
expected today, with speeds below 9 knots expected. Winds may be
light and variable at times. A push of north winds is expected
Monday with speeds in the 9-12 range, and some gusts up to 20 knots.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Light winds expected across the region favoring diurnal
trends. Gusty north winds expected near KIFP and KEED, with
occasional gusts to 25 knots possible. &&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&

$$

Short Term/Fire Weather/Aviation...Outler
Long Term...Salmen

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