Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

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000
FXUS65 KVEF 162212
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
312 PM PDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR
THURSDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS
A DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE AREA. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY THEN A WARMING TREND BEGINS SATURDAY AND
CONTINUES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY...BRIEF RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL APPROACH THE
REGION LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THIS APPROACHING SYSTEM WITH SPEEDS BETWEEN
15-25 MPH EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. THIS INCREASE IN WINDS
WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER MIXING AND TEMPERATURES TO JUMP AROUND 3-5
DEGREES OVER TODAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
BEGIN TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING.

COOLER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
LOWERING TO SEASONAL NORMS. SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOP FRIDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT AS DYNAMICS ARE WEAK AND MOISTURE IS
LIMITED. THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION SATURDAY BUT
SHOULD REMAIN CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AREA THAT SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES ON
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO WARM A FEW DEGREES ON
SATURDAY UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SUNDAY SHOULD BE GENERALLY
DRY WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE TROUGH.

NEXT WEEK IS BEGINNING TO LOOK INTERESTING...HOWEVER SIGNIFICANT
MODEL DIFFERENCES HAVE OCCURRED WITH THE 12Z MODEL CYCLE. GFS/GEM
VERY SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS RUN INDICATING A DEEP COLD TROUGH SLOWLY
MOVING EAST ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE
12Z ECMWF CAME IN NOT AS SHARP/DEEP WITH THE TROUGH TUESDAY AND IS
MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE TAKING THE TROUGH AXIS EAST INTO THE ROCKIES
ON WEDNESDAY. WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE CAN SAY STRONG WINDS WILL
AFFECT THE AREA TUESDAY ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ON
WEDNESDAY. MUCH LESS CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION DETAILS DUE TO
DIFFERING SOLUTIONS. BOTTOM LINE...DID NOT MAKE MANY ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE EXTENDED.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SOUTHWEST WINDS UNDER 10 KTS EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT THROUGH 15Z THURSDAY MORNING WINDS
WILL BE VARIABLE WITH SPEEDS UNDER 8 KTS. AFTER 15Z WINDS WILL
INCREASE WITH A DIRECTION INITIALLY OUT OF THE NORTHEAST TO EAST
EXPECTED WITH SPEEDS 8-12 KTS. THEN AROUND 22Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON
WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO
BETWEEN 10-15 KTS. FEW-SCT CLOUDS AOA 20K FEET EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...THROUGH THIS EVENING AREAS NORTH OF LAS VEGAS WILL SEE
NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY WINDS AT 10-15 KTS AND UNDER 10 KTS
ACROSS THE SOUTH. SPEEDS DECREASE AND REMAIN GENERALLY UNDER 10 KTS
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. A SYSTEM APPROACHING THE AREA FROM
THE SOUTHWEST ON THURSDAY WILL TURN WINDS MORE SOUTHERLY WITH SPEEDS
INCREASING TO 10-20 KTS. FEW-SCT CLOUDS AOA 20K FEET THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING THEN SCT-BKN AOA 15K FEET ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND AOA 20K FEET ACROSS ARIZONA AND NEVADA.
&&

.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

STUMPF/PIERCE

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