Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

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FXUS65 KVEF 300918
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
220 AM PDT SAT JUL 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...The weekend and next week will bring relief from the
very hot temperatures experienced the past several days although
increasing humidity could make it feel a bit sticky at times. Expect
isolated to scattered thunderstorm activity across parts of the area
through the next week.
&&

.SHORT TERM...through Monday night.

It`s been an active night across our area as numerous outflow
boundary interactions have sustained convection well into the night.
The strongest of these boundaries was generated from a large
thunderstorm complex in the Phoenix area that pushed northward into
our area and is now beginning to approach the Las Vegas Valley. Wind
gusts in the 30-40 mph range have been common with this feature,
though earlier they produced 50 mph or greater gusts closer to
Laughlin and Lake Havasu. Meanwhile, strong thunderstorms are
ongoing at this hour near the Kingman area where widespread heavy
rain has raised flash flooding concerns.

Atmosphere will remain fairly moist and unstable again Saturday and
Sunday which means storms will stick around through the weekend. In
fact, the large thunderstorm complex that impacted Arizona today has
worked to reinforce the moisture in our area for today.  Storms this
afternoon will be capable of strong winds and very heavy rainfall.
Best chances today look to occur in areas not shrouded in morning
cloud cover and in the eastern two-thirds of our forecast area.

.LONG TERM...Tuesday through Friday (From Previous Discussion).

The upper level pattern next week will be characterized by broad,
but low amplitude troughing across the Pacific Northwest and a slow
decrease in the strength of high pressure across the southwest US.
This will result in temperatures near or even slightly below normal.
It will also leave the door open for monsoon moisture and diurnal
convection to continue to impact the region through next week. At
this time, there is little unanimous support for any focusing
features or major pushes that jump out in model guidance. Therefore,
the latest extended forecast has broad-brushed precipitation chances
with the best chances over Mohave County, decreasing to the west.
&&

.AVIATION...For McCarran...Gusty southeast winds anticipated early
this morning with gusts to 30 knots possible. South winds will be
favored much of the day. Since the wind forecast today will be
strongly dependent on outflow boundaries and thunderstorms, it is
rather low confidence. Thunderstorms are a possibility once again
this afternoon and evening.


For the rest of southern Nevada...northwest Arizona...and southeast
California...Scattered thunderstorms expected through the morning
hours across Northwest Arizona and perhaps developing across areas
north of Las Vegas. Scattered clouds expected elsewhere gusty
southeast winds possible across southern Nevada and Eastern
California. Isolated to Scattered thunderstorms will redevelop in
the afternoon across the region and may produce gusty surface winds
and very heavy rain.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...More typical midsummer monsoon pattern expected for
the region with daily chances for thunderstorms and seasonably warm
temperatures. Cloud cover can be expected at times along with a
marked increase in regional humidity values. Thunderstorm chances
will continue next week.


&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
significant weather according to standard operating procedures.
&&

$$

Short Term/Aviation/Fire Weather...Outler
Long Term...Wolcott

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