Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

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FXUS65 KVEF 151045

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
245 AM PST Fri Dec 15 2017

.SYNOPSIS....Lingering north winds in the Colorado River Valley will
decrease today...becoming light. A quiet weather day elsewhere today
with light winds, a few high clouds and above normal temperatures.
Another cold front will move through the area Saturday bringing more
wind, increasing cloud cover, cooler temperatures and a possibility
of brief showers over parts of southern Nevada. Sunny, dry and cool
weather follows on Sunday.

.SHORT TERM...Today through Monday.

Shortwave ridging over the area today will provide us with mostly
sunny and slightly cooler conditions. Stiff north winds in the
Colorado River Valley at 3 AM are expected to decrease through the
morning becoming light nearly CWA wide this afternoon. The exception
will be some enhanced winds over the Sierra in response to the next
system approaching the Pacific NW coast.

This incoming trough presents itself as a consolidated elongated
wave until moving inland this evening. Then, the southern end of the
trough interacts with the southern subtropical jet stream and
deepens along the West Coast heading into Saturday.

Model differences are apparent by 18z Saturday with the ECMWF
solution forecasting a closed low off the Southern Cal
coast...similar to the Canadian. The GFS maintains an open wave
right over the So Cal coastline. Beyond 18z, the Canadian goes
wandering off on its own while the ECMWF and GFS walk hand and hand
into northern Baja and Mexico. Albeit, the EC remaining the deeper,
more energized solution. The northern end of the trough lingers back
over NE Nevada, NW Utah and NE Idaho providing a long vorticity
channel extending from Idaho down through Nevada/Southern Cal into
the low over Baja/Mexico continuing to direct cooler air into the
CWA into Sunday. The whole storm complex heads east Sunday night.

Focusing in on details shows a potential for showers beginning
Saturday morning...essentially along a cold front draped over the
southern Great Basin and southern Nevada. The front and shower
activity slowly shift east with the possibility of shower activity
over Lincoln and Clark counties Saturday afternoon. A few lingering
showers are forecast over Lincoln and northern Mohave counties
Saturday night. The dry streak currently underway in Las Vegas could
be challenged Saturday with sprinkles or light showers possible in
the valley. Expect dry and seasonal temperatures on Sunday with
highs in Las Vegas only expected to reach the mid 50s.

.LONG TERM...Monday through Thursday.

Models in pretty good agreement with the overall pattern through
this period. High pressure will move from near the California coast
Monday to Nevada Tuesday as it becomes less amplified. Mostly clear
skies, light winds and a warming trend can be expected. High
temperatures by Tuesday will be 5 or so degrees above normal. There
could be some lingering northerly breezes from Laughlin-Bullhead
City to Needles or Havasu Monday but nothing really noteworthy. The
next trough will move out of the Pacific Northwest into the northern
Great Basin Wednesday, then to roughly the Four Corners region
Thursday. This system does not look particularly moist for our area
but there will be a slight chance of snow showers over portions of
the Sierra Wednesday and over northeast Lincoln County Wednesday
night. The main impact for the forecast area will be winds starting
to pick up Wednesday afternoon with most areas seeing gusty north
winds Wednesday night and Thursday.  Southern portions of the
forecast area will continue to warm Thursday but temperatures will
cool noticeably over the entire area by Friday.

.AVIATION...For McCarran...Typical diurnal wind conditions this
morning through Saturday afternoon becoming northerly and increasing
as a front moves through Saturday evening. Expect wind speeds of 15-
25 knots and gusty at times. There will be a chance of sprinkles or
a light shower on Saturday with CIGS lowering to 5-7k feet Saturday
afternoon and Saturday night.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Lingering north winds along the Colorado River Valley
this morning becoming light this afternoon with typical diurnal
wind trends area wide into Saturday. &&

.FIRE WEATHER...North winds are expected again over the weekend
as another cold front moves across the region Saturday. Fire danger
will likely be enhanced again down the Colorado River Valley but
could be mitigated somewhat by cooler temperatures.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating


Short term/Aviation...Salmen
Long term...Harrison

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