Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS65 KVEF 011458
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
758 AM PDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE
COUNTRY WILL BRING A DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE
FALLING BELOW NORMAL FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORKWEEK AS THE
TROUGH DEEPENS. PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED AT TIMES BUT
OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
&&

.UPDATE...FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER TODAY WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS BEING
THE PRIMARY SENSIBLE WEATHER. UPDATED THE WIND GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE LATEST TRENDS AND GUIDANCE WHICH RESULTS IN BUMPING UP SPEEDS
EARLIER ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. WILL ALSO BE MONITORING
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL OVER NORTHEAST MOHAVE COUNTY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...CHALLENGING WIND FORECAST FOR MCCARRAN
TODAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS HAVE INCREASED EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED. THE HRRR SEEMS TO BE MOST IN LINE WITH THE CURRENT
CONDITIONS...WHICH KEEPS SPEEDS UP AT 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS 15-25 KTS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. MULTIPLE CHANGES FROM SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY. OTHERWISE...JUST SOME PASSING HIGH
CLOUDS EXPECTED WITH DISTANT THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN POSSIBLE IN THE
PEACH SPRINGS CORRIDOR.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...GENERALLY SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED WITH SPEEDS IN THE
10-15KT RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOONS WITH GUSTS TO 25KTS. AREAS OF
SMOKE LIKELY AGAIN IN THE OWENS VALLEY AND NEAR BISHOP. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHWEST ARIZONA NEAR MT
TRUMBULL IN MOHAVE COUNTY.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
220 AM PDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY.

SEPTEMBER HAS ARRIVED WHICH USUALLY MARKS THE BEGINNING OF A TREND
TOWARDS COOLER WEATHER AND A SLOW DOWNTURN OF THE MONSOON. SO FAR
LOOKS LIKE THINGS ARE ON TRACK AS A STRONG PACIFIC TROUGH WILL BE
INFLUENCING OUR WEATHER THIS WEEK BRINGING A TREND TOWARDS COOLER
TEMPERATURES WHILE SHUNTING MOST OF THE MONSOON FLOW TO OUR EAST.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH INCREASING
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES IN RESPONSE TO A DISTURBANCE OFF THE
PACIFIC COAST. MONSOON MOISTURE WAS CONFINED TO FAR EASTERN MOHAVE
COUNTY MONDAY AND MOISTURE WILL BE EVEN MORE SCARCE TODAY. I`VE
RETAINED SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
EXTREME EASTERN MOHAVE COUNTY BUT COVERAGE WILL BE QUITE SPARSE.

ON WEDNESDAY...AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO CARVE
ITSELF OUT ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST STATES WHICH WILL INDUCE A
STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. THIS MEANS
WIND WILL BECOME STRONGER AND GUSTIER WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL BE
STRONGEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND INYO COUNTY MOUNTAINS
WHERE WIND GUSTS MAY APPROACH 40 MPH IN ISOLATED POCKETS. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY. AS THE TROUGH INTENSIFIES TO OUR
NORTH...HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY FALL RESULTING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY ONWARD...ANYWHERE BETWEEN 4 AND 8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH A CLOSED LOW OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON WITH
AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH EXTENDING ALL THE WAY DOWN THE WEST COAST. THE
CLOSED LOW WILL TRACK SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A TROUGH REMAINING ROUGHLY
ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST
FLOW OVER OUR FORECAST AREA WHICH LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY AND STABLE
WITH AFTERNOON SOUTH/SOUTHWEST BREEZES. WE WILL STILL HAVE TO KEEP
AN EYE ON MOISTURE FROM A CURRENTLY UN-NAMED TROPICAL SYSTEM WHICH
IS FORECAST TO GET PULLED UP INTO ARIZONA. THIS MOISTURE COULD CLIP
EASTERN MOHAVE COUNTY FRIDAY BUT I STILL KEPT NO MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR NOW. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY BRINGING
THE BULK OF THAT MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN ARIZONA AND NEW
MEXICO. THE MODELS REALLY DIVERGE BY MONDAY. THE ECMWF HAS BASICALLY
A DRY WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER OUR AREA WHILE THE GFS HAS MORE OF A
MONSOON LIKE PATTERN WITH HIGH PRESSURE EAST AND A CLOSED LOW OFF
THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS GFS SOLUTION WOULD BRING MOISTURE UP INTO
THE AREA RESULTING IN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR AT LEAST MOHAVE
COUNTY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. I CHOSE TO MAKE NO CHANGES AND KEPT A
DRY FORECAST GOING AS UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH DUE TO SIGNIFICANT MODEL
DIFFERENCES. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM ARE EXPECTED TO BE
JUST A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY FUELS AND LOW MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
ACROSS NYE AND ESMERALDA COUNTIES COLLOCATED WITH AFTERNOON WINDS OF
20-25 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 MPH MAKE FIRE WEATHER A CONCERN
BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BORDERLINE RED FLAG CONDITIONS MAY
BLEED WESTWARD INTO PARTS OF INYO COUNTY AS WELL. A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR NYE AND ESMERALDA COUNTIES FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WHERE THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE EXISTS ON RED FLAG
CONDITIONS MATERIALIZING.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE
NECESSARY. HOWEVER...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...WOLCOTT
SHORT TERM...OUTLER
LONG TERM....HARRISON

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.