Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

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FXUS65 KVEF 231514
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
814 AM PDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY. BREEZY AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA. MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&

.UPDATE...A RIDGE OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY AND
STABLE WITH MAINLY LIGHT WINDS. NO UPDATES NEEDED. -HARRISON-

.PREV DISCUSSION...
302 AM PDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...SENSIBLE WEATHER TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY WILL BE CLOSE COPIES OF EACH OTHER AS A RIDGE AMPLIFIES
FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST UP OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL
PROVIDE TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH GENERALLY
LIGHT WINDS...EXCEPT SOUTH WINDS GUSTING AROUND 25 MPH OVER INYO
COUNTY AND NEARBY WEST CENTRAL NEVADA.

WE WILL START TO FEEL THE INFLUENCE OF THE INCOMING EASTERN PACIFIC
TROUGH THURSDAY WITH SOUTH BREEZES PICKING UP NOTICEABLY IN THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE
OVER NORTHERN INYO...ESMERALDA AND CENTRAL NYE COUNTIES WITH SOUTH
WIND GUSTS APPROACHING 35-40 MPH. THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
PULL INCREASING LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE UP ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN NEVADA BUT THIS SHOULD ONLY LEAD TO SOME
FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS WHICH WILL ALSO BE A NOTICEABLE CHANGE
FROM THE CLOUD FREE SKIES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL
PEAK THURSDAY AND MAY BE THE LAST CHANCE FOR LAS VEGAS TO BRUSH THE
100 DEGREE MARK FOR THE YEAR.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WAS HOPING TO SEE A LITTLE
BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE FINER DETAILS OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST SUCH AS TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF BEST PRECIPITATION
CHANCES...BUT THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE AT ODDS WITH EACH OTHER.
ECMWF REMAINS THE WETTER AND FURTHEST WEST SOLUTION, ALTHOUGH HAS
TRENDED CLOSER TO THE GFS WITH ITS MOST RECENT RUNS. THE GFS REMAINS
CONSISTENT WITH ITS PRIOR IDEA OF A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE TROUGH
PUSHING THROUGH WITH BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAINLY IN THE NORTH
AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

HAVE SIDED WITH THE GFS WHICH HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT PAINTING A
SWATH OF INSTABILITY ACROSS MOHAVE COUNTY WHICH LIGHTS UP WITH
PRECIPITATION AS THE DYNAMICS OF THE TROUGH APPROACH FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.  BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON THE COLD FRONT WILL BE
STRETCHED FROM EASTERN IDAHO DOWN THROUGH CENTRAL ARIZONA WITH MOST
OF THE PRECIPITATION CONFINED TO THOSE AREAS BY LATE SATURDAY. WITH
THE COLD CORE OVERHEAD...SOME INSTABILITY DRIVEN SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. WHILE
THIS IS HOW I TRENDED THE FORECAST...IF THE SLOWER ECMWF WERE TO
VERIFY...HIGHER POPS WOULD BE NEEDED IN FUTURE SHIFTS ACROSS CLARK/
LINCOLN/EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES.

ONE THING THAT IS CERTAIN...MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE ON THE WAY
AS THIS IS THE FIRST MAJOR PACIFIC TROUGH TO IMPACT THE WEST THIS
FALL SEASON. HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WILL CRASH 5 TO 10
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE...WITH EVEN A LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE SIERRA ABOVE 10K FT.

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...TYPICAL DIURNAL WIND CYCLE AGAIN TODAY
EAST/SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHIFTING SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
TONIGHT. WIND SPEED APPROACHING 10 KTS AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON.
CLEAR SKIES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR THROUGH MID-WEEK UNDER A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. LIGHT WINDS WILL FAVOR TYPICAL DIURNAL
PATTERNS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION EXCEPT
NORTHERN INYO COUNTY AND WHERE SOUTH WINDS GUSTING AROUND 25 MPH CAN
BE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...ADAIR
LONG TERM...OUTLER

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