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FXXX12 KWNP 140031

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2016 Feb 14 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
#             Forecast Discussion
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached moderate levels. Region 2497 (N12W35,
Eac/beta-gamma-delta) produced the strongest flare of the period, an
M1/1b at 13/1524 UTC. The region produced several other low-level
C-class flares in the past 24 hours. Region 2497 exhibited dissipation
around its leader and trailer spots and consolidation around its
intermediate spot. All other regions were stable and inactive. No
Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with a chance for M-class
flares (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) over the next three days (14-16 Feb) due
primarily to the flare potential of Region 2497.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal levels and the
greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to
moderate levels on days one through three (14-16 Feb). There is a slight
chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux to reach S1 (Minor)
levels over the next three days (14-16 Feb) due to the complexity and
position of Region 2497.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters, as indicated by the ACE spacecraft, reflected the
transition from a CIR into a weak positive polarity HSS. Bt began the
period at 17 nT and declined to between 6 nT by the days end. The Bz
component was primarily oriented northward. Solar wind speeds gradually
increased from around 350 km/s to 400 km/s at the end of the day. Phi
angle was predominantly positive after 13/0200 UTC.

Solar wind parameters are expected reflect diminishing influence of a
subsiding CH HSS until the arrival of an anticipated 11 Feb CME late on
day one (14 Feb). Enhancements in Bt and solar wind speeds are expected
to persist through day two (15 Feb) and wane as day three (16 Feb)


.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet with isolated periods of
unsettled in response to a period of -Bz orientation in the solar wind.

The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels
until late on day (14 Feb) when minor storm levels (G1-Minor) are likely
to accompany the onset of the 11 Feb CME. Minor storm levels (G1-Minor)
are likely to persist into day two (15 Feb) as the CME continues to
influence Earths magnetic field. CME effects are expected to subside,
likely causing isolated active periods, as day three (16 Feb)
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