Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
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000
FXXX12 KWNP 050031
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2016 May 05 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached low levels during the period. A C1 flare occurred
at 04/1351 UTC from Region 2535 (N07W68, Hax/alpha). A Type II radio
sweep (560 km/s) and CME were associated with this event. Analysis and
WSA-Enlil modeling indicated an Earth-directed component was unlikely.
Another impulsive C1/1n flare took place at 04/2248 UTC from newly
numbered region 2542 (N09E70, Cko/beta). Region 2536 (N15W51, Dao/beta)
showed slight growth and consolidation in its intermediate spots, but
remained inactive. Regions 2541 (N04E39, Cro/beta) and 2539 (N16W18,
Bxo/beta) exhibited slight decay and were quiet throughout the period.

No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels with C-class flares
likely on days one through three (05-07 May) primarily due to the
increased flare potential of new Region 2542.


Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels, reaching a
maximum flux reading of 5,376 pfu at 04/1705 UTC. The greater than 10
MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to
high levels all three days of the forecast period (05-07 May). The
greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background
levels.


Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reflected a
return to nominal conditions. Solar wind speed began the period near 475
km/s and gradually declined to near 400 km/s by periods end. Total
field was between 3 to 5 nT while Bz was variable with no significant
southward deflections. Phi angle was negative until near 04/1700 UTC,
when it switched to a more neutral orientation.

.Forecast...
The solar wind environment is expected to remain near background
conditions for days one and two (05-06 May). Day three (07 May) is
expected to see enhanced levels due to the arrival of a CIR ahead of a
positive polarity CH HSS.


Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.

.Forecast..
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly quiet levels on
days one and two (05-06 May) with a nominal solar wind. Unsettled to
active conditions are likely on day three (07 May) due to the arrival of
a CIR ahead of a positive polarity CH HSS.



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