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000
FXXX12 KWNP 081230
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2014 Mar 08 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity remained at low levels. Region 1995 (S16W82, Cao/beta)
produced a C2 x-ray event at 07/1857 UTC while Region 1991 (S26W54,
Cao/beta) produced a C1/Sf at 08/0544 UTC. Both regions exhibited some
decay during the past 24 hours. New Region 2002 (S19E71, Cao/beta)
produced the largest event of the period, a C3 event at 08/0007 UTC. An
additional C1 x-ray event was observed at 08/1058 UTC from an unnumbered
region beyond the east limb at about S10. Region 1996 (N15W16,
Dai/beta), the largest group on the visible disk, indicated slight decay
and was quiet during the period.  The remaining regions were stable. No
Earth-directed CMEs were detected.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with a chance for M-
class flares for the next three days (08-10 Mar).

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels.
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to
moderate levels for day one (08 Mar), followed by moderate to high flux
levels the following two days (09-10 Mar) in response to a coronal hole
high speed stream (CH HSS). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is
expected to be at background levels for the next three days (08-10 Mar).

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind speed at ACE slowly declined from near 465 km/s at the
beginning of the period to end-of-period speeds of around 375 km/s. The
solar sector remained in a positive (away) orientation. Bz varied
between +/- 3 nT while total field was relatively steady between 2 nT
and 4 nT.

.Forecast...
Solar wind speed is expected to increase on day one (08 Mar) with the
onset of the negative polarity CH HSS, and is expected to persist
through day three (10 Mar).

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet.

.Forecast...
The onset of an expected CH HSS described above is expected to bring
quiet to unsettled conditions for the next three days, with a chance for
active levels on day two (09 Mar).