Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
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000
FXXX12 KWNP 231231
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2016 Jul 23 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity increased to high levels due to three R2 (Moderate)
flares observed from Region 2567 (N05W74, Dao/beta). The first of these
events was an M5 x-ray flare observed at 23/0211 UTC. At 23/0516 UTC,
Region 2567 produced an impulsive M7/2b flare with an associated 310 sfu
Tenflare. Shortly afterward, the region produced another impulsive event
with an M5/3b observed at 23/0531 UTC. Associated with this event was
another Tenflare with a 900 sfu maximum and Type II (729 km/s shock
velocity) and Type IV radio emissions.

SDO/AIA 131,171 and 304 imagery observed material exiting the west limb
at approximately 23/0540 UTC. Initial coronagraph imagery observed a CME
lifting off the west limb at 23/0524 UTC. Further coronagraph imagery is
required to determine any possible Earth-directed component from this
CME.

Region 2567 indicated some slight decay in the northern portion of the
leader spots while Region 2565 (N03W84, Hkx/alpha) showed little change.
The remainder of the disk and limb was quiet and stable.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is likely to be at low levels with a chance for M-class
flares on days one and two (23-24 Jul). M-class probabilities decrease
to a slight chance on day three (25 Jul) as Regions 2565 and 2567 rotate
around the west limb.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at mostly
background levels with a slight enhancement to near 1 pfu observed after
23/0600 UTC due to significant flare activity off the west limb.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to
moderate levels for the next three days (23-25 Jul). There is a slight
chance for S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm for the next three days due
to potential flare activity from Region 2567.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were slightly enhanced with solar wind speeds
averaging about 400 km/s through the period with a peak of 511 km/s
observed at 22/2114 UTC. Total field generally ranged from 3 - 9 nT
while the Bz component was mostly southward varying between +7 nT to -8
nT. Phi angle began the period in a negative sector, switched to a
positive orientation at about 22/1730 UTC and remained positive through
about 23/0130 UTC when it switched back to a negative sector.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to be slightly enhanced on days one
and two (23-24 Jul) and returning to nominal conditions by day three (25
Jul).

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet with isolated
unsettled periods possible for the next three days (23-25 Jul).



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