Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
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000
FXXX12 KWNP 300030
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2017 May 30 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity decreased to very low levels. Region 2659 (N13W86,
Dso/beta) produced a few B-class flares; the largest was a B6 flare
observed at 29/1448 UTC. The region exhibited little change as it
approached the west limb. A B1 x-ray flare was observed at 29/1658 UTC
from an area of enhanced plage near N12E32. No Earth-directed CMEs were
observed in available coronagraph imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels throughout the
forecast period (30 May-01 Jun). A chance remains for an isolated
C-class flare on 30 May as Region 2659 rotates around the west limb.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels
this period in response to enhanced geomagnetic field activity
associated with the influence of the 23 May CME. Electron flux reached a
maximum of 490 pfu observed at 29/1600 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV
proton flux remained at background levels throughout the period.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to
moderate levels on day one (30 May) with the potential to reach moderate
to high levels by days two and three (31 May-01 Jun). This increase is
in response to the enhanced near-Earth solar wind environment associated
with the passage of the 23 May CME. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux
is expected to persist at background levels throughout the forecast
period (29-31 May).

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters, as measured by the DSCOVR spacecraft, reflected
continued enhancement from the 23 May CME. Total magnetic field strength
generally ranged between 9-17 nT through about 29/1500 UTC when field
strength decreased to less than 9 nT. The Bz component was mostly
positive through about 29/0800 UTC when a rotation to mostly negative
occurred. A maximum value of -13 nT was observed at 29/1241 UTC. Solar
wind varied between 330-405 km/s. Note: wind speeds were unreliable
between about 29/1430-1845 UTC and again between 29/2030-2110 UTC. Phi
was generally in a positive sector with a brief negative orientation
observed between about 29/1530-1630 UTC.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to gradually transition from the
trailing end of the 23 May CME back towards nominal conditions by early
on day one (30 May). Background solar wind parameters are expected
on days two and three (31 May-01 Jun) with the return to a nominal solar
wind regime.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active conditions due to the
weakening influence of the 23 May CME.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on
day one (30 May) as CME effects wane. Generally quiet conditions are
expected for days two and three (31 May-01 Jun) with the return of a
nominal solar wind regime.



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