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000
FXXX12 KWNP 261231
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2015 Jan 26 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels.  Only C1 flares were observed from
Regions 2268 (S10E28, Eki/beta-gamma) and 2271 (N18E01, Dai/beta-gamma),
however there was increased flaring occurrences in the latter half of
the period as moderate growth was observed in the intermediate and
trailing area of the two regions.  A spot group rotated around the NE
limb and was numbered as Region 2272 (N13E66, Cao/beta).  Several new
areas of flux emergence are being monitored, whereas one was numbered as
new Region 2273 (S03E09, Bxo/beta).  No Earth-directed coronal mass
ejections were observed.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to remain at low levels with a chance for
M-class (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) flaring over the next three days (26-28
Jan).  The most likely source for any significant flare activity is
Region 2268, 2271, and the return of old Region 2257 (N07, L=322) on or
about 26 Jan.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal to moderate levels with a peak flux of 147 pfu observed at
25/1625 UTC.  The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous
orbit remained at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is forecast
to be at normal to moderate levels through the forecast period
(26-28 Jan).  The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain
at background levels (below S1-Minor) through the forecast period.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters indicated the possible arrival of a co-rotating
interaction region (CIR).  Solar wind speed ranged from 321 km/s to a
high of 403 km/s at 26/0749 UTC.  Total field measurements slowly rose
from 5 nT early in the period to 10 nT before a sudden increase to 17 nT
occurred just after 26/0742 UTC.  The Bz component reached a maximum
southward value of -15 nT at 26/0802 UTC.  Phi angle was mostly negative
(towards).

.Forecast...
Given the higher latitude of the southern polar coronal hole, it is
likely the connection will be weaker than previous rotations.  Solar
wind parameters are likely to become enhanced for the next three days
(26-28 Jan) with solar wind speeds in the 450 to 550 km/s range.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was mostly unsettled after 25/2100 UTC with active
levels observed during the 26/0900-1200 UTC due to CIR effects.

.Forecast...
Quiet to unsettled levels are expected for the forecast period (26-28
Jan) with a chance for further active periods (Below G1-Minor) on days
one and two (26-27 Jan) due to coronal hole high speed stream influence.