Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
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164
FXXX12 KWNP 220053
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2017 Feb 22 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity continued to be very low. Region 2638 (N18E49, Dso/beta)
became more visible as it rotated further onto the visible disc. The
region still appeared to be in a simple bipolar configuration, but
foreshortening effects continued to prevent a better analysis. No
Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to remain very low, with a chance for
C-class flares all three days (22-24 Feb).


Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to high levels, with
a max flux of 1,109 pfu at 21/1905 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton
flux remained at background values.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be from normal to
high on day one (22 Feb) and decrease to normal to moderate
levels on days two and three (23-24 Feb) due to electron redistribution
from CIR effects. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to
continue at background levels all three days.


Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were indicative of slightly elevated solar wind
speeds and mildly enhanced IMF. Solar wind speeds were from 425-475
km/s. Total IMF strength ranged from 3 to 6 nT; while the Bz component
underwent mainly weak deviations until after 21/1500 UTC, when it turned
primarily northward. The phi angle was predominantly positive (away from
Sun).

.Forecast...
The solar wind environment is anticipated to experience an enhancement
in total magnetic field strength on day one (22 Feb) due to likely weak
CIR effects ahead of the eastern, broader heliographic expanse of the
positive polarity CH HSS; followed by increasing solar wind speeds as
this larger area of the CH HSS rotates into a better geoeffective
position. Solar wind speeds are likely to reach 500-600 km/s on day two
(23 Feb) according to the latest WSA model outputs (and in agreement
with recurrence data), as the CH HSS becomes best connected. Solar wind
speed is anticipated to begin a slow decline on day three (24 Feb) as
the CH HSS rotates further westward and away from a fully connected
position.


Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled, with later
active periods on day one (22 Feb) in response to anticipated solar wind
environment enhancements related to CIR and CH HSS onset effects. Day
two (23 Feb) is expected to respond at primarily unsettled to active
levels, with an early isolated period of G1 (Minor) storming likely, in
reaction to the anticipated enhanced and elevated solar wind regime.
Weakening, but still elevated, solar wind conditions are expected to
result in quiet to active levels on day three (24 Feb).



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