Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
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025
FXXX12 KWNP 250031
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2017 Jan 25 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity remained at very low levels. Region 2626 (N08W74,
Axx/alpha) continued to decay, becoming a simple unipolar spot. Region
2627 (N06W25, Cro/beta) exhibited overall decay, while Region 2628
(N13W05, Eao/beta) had decay in its trailer spots. All spot groups
remained mostly inactive throughout the period. New Region 2629 (N15E59,
Cao/beta) emerged in the northeast and appears to be responsible for
some low level B-class activity during the period. No Earth-directed
CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class
flares over the next three days (25-27 Jan) mainly due to the flare
potential from Regions 2627 and 2628.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at moderate to high levels with
a maximum flux of 1,001 pfu observed at 23/1720 UTC. The greater than
10 MeV proton flux continued at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to
moderate levels all three days of the forecast period (25-27 Jan). The
greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background
levels.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters reflect a return to nominal conditions. Solar wind
speed began the period near 410 km/s before decreasing to around 298
km/s near periods end. Total field averaged around 3 nT, while the Bz
component mainly ranged between +2/-4 nT. Phi angle was predominately
oriented in a positive (away) sector.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to remain at mostly nominal levels
on days one and two (25-26 Jan). A slight enhancement is expected late
on day three (27 Jan) due to the anticipated arrival of a recurrent
positive polarity CH HSS.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominately quiet levels
on days one and two (25-26 Jan) under a nominal, background solar
wind regime. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected late on day three
(27 Jan) due to the anticipated arrival of a recurrent positive polarity
CH HSS.



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