Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
000
FXXX12 KWNP 230031
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2018 Jan 23 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was very low. The largest event of the period was a B9/Sf
at 22/0257 UTC from plage Region 2696 (S12W69). An associated CME, on
the southwest limb, was observed in LASCO C2 imagery beginning at
approximately 22/0324 UTC. However, forecaster analysis/WSA Enlil
modeling determined that the CME does not have an Earthward component.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels throughout the
forecast period (22-24 Jan).

Energetic Particles

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels
and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal levels
on day one (22 Jan) with an increase to moderate levels on days two
and three (23-24 Jan) due to CH HSS influence. The greater than 10 MeV
proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the
forecast period.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
The solar wind environment indicated persistent negative polarity CH HSS
influence. Wind speeds have averaged near 525 km/s. Total field peaked
early in the period at 8 nT and decreased to approximately 5 nT by
periods end. Bz has been variable with a few periods of sustained
southward direction at approximately -4 nT. Phi angle was negative.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to remain enhanced but in gradual
decline over the next three days (22-24 Jan) as the CH HSS wanes.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected continue at quiet to unsettled levels
on days one and two (22-23 Jan), with isolated periods of active
conditions possible early on day one, due to continued, but waning
influence of the CH HSS. Mostly quiet levels are expected on day three
(24 Jan) as nominal conditions return.



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.