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000
FXXX12 KWNP 060031
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2015 Mar 06 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached moderate levels this period.  An unnumbered
region behind the southeastern limb produced an M1 (R1-Minor) flare at
05/1811 UTC which was the largest event of the period.  Region 2293
(N05W53, Cao/beta) produced a C4 flare at 05/1955 UTC but continued to
decay this period.  New Region 2295 (S08W53, Bxo/beta) was numbered this
period but was otherwise unremarkable.  No Earth-directed coronal mass
ejections (CMEs) were observed this period.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for M-class
(R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flare activity over the next three days (06-08
Mar).

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at moderate to high levels this
period, reaching a maximum value of 1,110 pfu at 05/1855 UTC.  The
greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels throughout the
period.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to high
levels over the next three days (06-08 Mar).  The greater than 10 MeV
proton flux is expected to remain at background levels over the next
three days (06-08 Mar).

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters at the ACE spacecraft were indicative of a nominal
solar wind environment.  Solar wind velocities steadily decreased from
initial values near 500 km/s to end-of-period values near 400 km/s.  IMF
total field values ranged between 2 nT and 8 nT and Bz reached a maximum
southward component of -6 nT mid-period.  The phi angle was generally
steady in a positive (away from the Sun) solar sector orientation
throughout the period.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to remain near background levels on
days one and two (06-07 Mar) under a nominal solar wind regime.  A minor
solar wind enhancement is expected on day three (08 Mar) as a positive
polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) moves into geoeffective
position.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels this period.

.Forecast...
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to unsettled
levels on days one and two (06-07 Mar) under a nominal solar wind
regime.  The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active
levels with a slight chance for G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm conditions
on day three (08 Mar) as a positive polarity CH HSS become geoeffective.