Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
340 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

...SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK /9/...

THIS IS THE NINTH FLOOD OUTLOOK FOR THE 2014 WINTER/SPRING
SEASON. FLOOD OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED BI-WEEKLY THROUGH THE WINTER
AND SPRING BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BURLINGTON VERMONT
TO SUMMARIZE THE FLOOD POTENTIAL DUE TO SNOWMELT AND BREAK UP OF
RIVER ICE ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN VERMONT...AND NORTHERN NEW
YORK.

...OVERVIEW...

THE NEAR TERM SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK IS NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL.

THE LONG TERM SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK IS NEAR NORMAL.

THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING DUE TO ICE JAMS HAS PASSED FOR
NORTHERN NEW YORK STATE AND NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VERMONT.

RIVERS CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH...GRADUALLY DECREASING WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE KEEPING SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE AREA
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...LAKE CHAMPLAIN WILL CONTINUE
TO RISE AS HIGH FLOWING RIVERS AND STREAMS CONTINUE TO FEED INTO
THE LAKE...WITH MINOR FLOODING OCCURRING.

HIGH SUN ANGLE IN MID TO LATE APRIL WILL CONTINUE THE GRADUAL
SNOWMELT OF NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL SNOW PACK. WITH A MORE ACTIVE
PATTERN NEXT WEEK THROUGH THE END OF APRIL...BRINGING SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION.

...SNOW DEPTHS AND WATER EQUIVALENT...

SIGNIFICANT DECREASE OF SNOW PACK FROM MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EARLIER THIS WEEK...COMBINED WITH SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL HAVE RESULTED IN NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL SNOW DEPTHS.
VALLEY LOCATIONS BELOW 1500 FEET SEEING BARE GROUND TO TWO INCHES
OF SNOW DEPTH...DECREASING IN MID APRIL SUN AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. IN ELEVATED TERRAIN...SNOW DEPTHS INCREASE TO TWO
TO SIX INCHES BETWEEN 1500 AND 2500 FEET...WITH ELEVATIONS ABOVE
2500 FEET SEEING LOCALIZED ONE FOOT PLUS SNOW DEPTHS.

SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT...OR THE AMOUNT OF LIQUID WATER HELD IN THE
SNOW PACK...WAS NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL. VALLEY LOCATIONS UP TO 2500
FEET HELD LESS THAN ONE INCH OF LIQUID WATER WHERE SNOW STILL
EXISTS. ABOVE 2500 FEET ELEVATION...THE SNOW PACK CONTAINED TWO
TO SIX INCHES OF WATER. SNOW DENSITIES ARE 20 TO 40 PERCENT ONLY
IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN.

...RIVER AND SOIL CONDITIONS...

NEAR SURFACE SOIL MOISTURE ANOMALY MAPS SHOW VERMONT AND NORTHERN
NEW YORK WITH NEAR NORMAL SOIL MOISTURE LEVELS. HOWEVER...STREAM
AND RIVER FLOWS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND CENTRAL AND EASTERN
VERMONT ARE ABOVE NORMAL TO HIGH WATER LEVELS DUE TO RECENT
SNOWMELT AND RAINFALL. MINOR FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ON LAKE
CHAMPLAIN AS HIGH FLOW FROM UPSTREAM RIVERS FEED INTO THE
LAKE...WHILE THE RIVERS UPSTREAM GRADUALLY RECEDE.

...WEATHER OUTLOOK...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST TO START THE
PERIOD...ALLOWING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO TO BRING A CHANCE FOR
LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY FRIDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO MELT THE SNOW PACK IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AS VALLEYS CONTINUE TO BE MOSTLY SNOW FREE. THIS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON SATURDAY WILL REMAIN OVER
THE REGION THROUGH EARLY MONDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS ALLOWING
RIVERS TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY RECEDE.

THIS PATTERN OF LOW PRESSURE BRINGING RAINFALL FOLLOWED BY A
COUPLE OF DRY DAYS AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL REPEAT THROUGH THE END
OF APRIL...GENERALLY KEEPING CONDITIONS MOIST.

THE OFFICIAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK VALID
APRIL 24 TO 30 CALLS FOR NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION. THE HIGHER SUN ANGLE WILL
CONTINUE TO WORK AWAY AT MELTING THE WATER LADEN SNOW PACK.

...SUMMARY...

THE SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL IS NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL DUE TO RECENT
SNOWMELT AND SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL.

AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS FORECAST WITH SEVERAL PRECIPITATION EVENTS
ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AS MOSTLY RAIN EVENTS. SOME
ELEVATED SNOW SHOWERS PRODUCING LESS THAN TWO INCHES OF SNOWFALL
IS POSSIBLE THE NIGHT OF GOOD FRIDAY. THIS PRECIPITATION AND
CONTINUED SNOWMELT OF NORMAL MINIMUM SNOW PACK WILL KEEP RIVER
FLOWS NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL.

IT IS IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT VERY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BRING
FLOODING AT ANY TIME OF YEAR...EVEN IN AREAS THAT HAVE LITTLE OR
NO SNOW ON THE GROUND.

THE NEXT WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED ON
THURSDAY MAY 1 2014.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE ACCESS CURRENT WEATHER CONDITIONS
AND FORECASTS ON OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BTV.

$$

KGM

$$









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