Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1146 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

...FLOODING ON THE BLACK RIVER BASIN ONGOING THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...
...OTHERWISE NEAR NORMAL FLOOD RISK...

THIS IS THE EIGHTH WINTER / SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK OF THE
2014 SEASON. FLOOD OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED EVERY TWO WEEKS INTO
EARLY SPRING TO SUMMARIZE BASIN HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS AND
TO ASSESS THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING. THE OUTLOOKS ARE BASED ON
CURRENT AND FORECAST HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS. THIS INCLUDES
SNOW COVER AND SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT...CREEK AND RIVER LEVELS AND
THE AMOUNT OF ICE COVER ON THEM...ALONG WITH THE EXPECTED
PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT TWO WEEKS.

...CURRENT CONDITIONS SUMMARY...
TWO DAYS WITH HIGHS UP INTO THE 70S MELTED THE MAJORITY OF THE
SNOW PACK IN THE BLACK RIVER BASIN. THIS COMBINED WITH ABOUT AN
INCH OF RAINFALL CAUSED MAJOR FLOODING IN THIS BASIN...WHICH IS
STILL ONGOING. THIS WASHED OUT ANY REMAINING ICE...AND MELTED THE
VAST MAJORITY OF SNOW PACK IN PLACE. THERE IS STILL UP TO 3 INCHES
SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT ON THE TUG HILL.

THE FOLLOWING IS A SUMMARY OF CONDITIONS AND OUTLOOK BY BASIN AS
OF THURSDAY MORNING ON APRIL 17TH:

...BUFFALO AREA CREEKS / LAKE ERIE BASIN...
.SNOW COVER..........NONE.
.WATER EQUIVALENT....NONE.
.CREEK FLOWS.........NEAR NORMAL.
.CREEK ICE...........NONE.
.GROUND FROST........NONE.
.GROUND STATE........SATURATED.

...GENESEE RIVER BASIN / FINGER LAKES / ROCHESTER AREA...
.SNOW COVER..........NONE.
.WATER EQUIVALENT....NONE.
.RIVER/CREEK FLOWS...ABOVE NORMAL.
.RIVER/CREEK ICE.....NONE.
.GROUND FROST........NONE.
.GROUND STATE........SATURATED.

...ALLEGHENY RIVER BASIN...
.SNOW COVER..........NONE.
.WATER EQUIVALENT....NONE.
.RIVER/CREEK FLOWS...ABOVE NORMAL.
.RIVER CREEK ICE.....NONE.
.GROUND FROST........NONE.
.GROUND STATE........SATURATED.

...BLACK RIVER BASINS / TUG HILL...
.SNOW COVER..........NONE...EXCEPT UP TO 6 INCHES ON THE TUG HILL.
.WATER EQUIVALENT....NONE...EXCEPT UP TO 3 INCHES ON THE TUG HILL.
.RIVER/CREEK FLOWS...MUCH ABOVE NORMAL.
.RIVER/CREEK ICE.....NONE.
.GROUND FROST........MOSTLY THAWED.
.GROUND STATE........SATURATED.

...TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK...
A RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT
WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL TYPICALLY PRODUCE FREQUENT BUT WEAK
SYSTEMS WHICH BRING GENERALLY LIGHT RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
AVERAGE NEAR TO A BIT ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE NEXT WEEK OR SO.
LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD THROUGH THE END OF APRIL...TEMPERATURES AND
PRECIPITATION ARE FORECAST ABOVE NORMAL.

...FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK...
THERE IS ALREADY FLOODING ONGOING IN THE BLACK RIVER BASIN...AND
THIS IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. REFER TO THE
LATEST WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON THIS
FLOODING.

AFTER THIS...THE MAJORITY OF THE SNOW PACK IS MELTED...HOWEVER
THERE STILL IS SOME ON THE TUG HILL. DURING THE NEXT WEEK THIS
SNOW PACK WILL LIKELY MELT SLOWLY...BUT WITH NO SIGNIFICANT RAINS
IT PROBABLY WILL HAVE ONLY A MODEST IMPACT. HOWEVER WITH CURRENT
FLOWS MUCH ABOVE NORMAL ON THE BLACK RIVER...IT WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH
RUNOFF TO PRODUCE OR PROLONG FLOODING. BECAUSE OF THIS THERE IS
STILL A MODEST RISK FOR FLOODING IN THE BLACK RIVER BASIN THROUGH
NEXT WEEK. BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST...EXPECT ALL OF THE SNOW
PACK TO BE MELTED BY LATE APRIL.

...ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...

REAL TIME RIVER INFORMATION AND PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS FOR
SPECIFIC LOCATIONS ALONG RIVERS ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK CAN BE
FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF BY CLICKING ON THE
RIVERS AND LAKES AHPS LINK ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE PAGE. SINCE
CONDITIONS CAN CHANGE PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD
WARNINGS...WATCHES...AND STATEMENTS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

THIS WILL BE THE LAST OUTLOOK ISSUED FOR THE 2014 SEASON. THANKS
TO ALL THE OBSERVERS AND AGENCIES WHICH HAVE HELPED GATHER DATA IN
SUPPORT OF THIS OUTLOOK.

$$

APFFEL





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