Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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434
FNUS28 KWNS 301947
FWDD38

DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0247 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

VALID 021200Z - 081200Z

THE FIRE-WEATHER RISK COULD BECOME ENHANCED FOR LATE IN THE UPCOMING
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND...AS MEDIUM-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES
SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TROPOSPHERIC FLOW TO OVERSPREAD ANTECEDENT
DRY BOUNDARY-LAYER CONDITIONS. THIS WOULD BE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ADVANCING ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST.
HOWEVER...DIFFERENCES AMONG MODEL SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE EVOLUTION
OF THIS SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED CORRIDORS OF ENHANCED SFC WINDS
YIELD CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL
FIRE-WEATHER CONDITIONS. INFLUXES OF PACIFIC MOISTURE INTO PARTS OF
THE SWRN CONUS...AND AREAS OF RELATIVELY LESS-FAVORABLE FUELS FOR
FIRE SPREAD ACROSS PARTS OF NRN NM/AZ...COULD MITIGATE THE
FIRE-WEATHER POTENTIAL. AS SUCH...PROBABILISTIC DELINEATIONS HAVE
NOT BEEN INCLUDED AT THIS TIME THOUGH THEY COULD BECOME NECESSARY IN
LATER OUTLOOKS. OTHERWISE...LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
GENERALLY MODEST OVER AREAS OF DRY SFC CONDITIONS PRIMARILY
RELEGATED TO PORTIONS OF THE SWRN CONUS.

..COHEN.. 04/30/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

$$



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