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942
FNUS28 KWNS 282034
FWDD38

DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0334 PM CDT THU JUL 28 2016

VALID 301200Z - 051200Z

RIDGING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO
DE-AMPLIFY AND SHIFT EAST AS HEIGHTS FALL ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CONUS
THIS WEEKEND. A MID-LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL THEN MOVE ASHORE THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH AN ENHANCED CHANNEL OF
WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW EXTENDING FROM THE OREGON COAST EASTWARD TO
MONTANA. GENERAL CYCLONIC FLOW WILL POTENTIALLY REMAIN SITUATED
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST THROUGH MID-WEEK.

...D3/SAT-D6/TUE -- GREAT BASIN/PACIFIC NORTHWEST/ROCKY MOUNTAINS...

BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL MATERIALIZE THIS WEEKEND ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST...AS INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW OVERSPREADS DRY AIR SITUATED
ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY THE COLUMBIA BASIN. DRYING
FUELS...SUSTAINED WINDS UPWARDS OF 20-25 MPH...AND RH VALUES BELOW
20 PERCENT WILL LIKELY OVERLAP HERE. AS SUCH...FAR NORTH-CENTRAL
OREGON AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN/CENTRAL WASHINGTON ARE UPGRADED TO
70-PERCENT /CRITICAL/ FOR WIND AND LOW RH.

BREEZY/DRY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST ALONG THE
SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE TROUGH...REINFORCED BY THE
AFOREMENTIONED CLOSED LOW MOVING ASHORE NEXT WEEK. AS SUCH...THE
ONGOING 40-PERCENT AREAS ARE MAINTAINED WITH MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.
FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS AND POTENTIAL UPGRADES MAY BE NECESSARY IN LATER
FORECASTS.

...DRY THUNDERSTORMS...
DRY-THUNDER POTENTIAL WILL ALSO EXPAND ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION ON
SATURDAY...AS MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IS DRAWN NORTH IN RESPONSE TO
FALLING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. THIS POTENTIAL WILL THEN BE
SHUNTED EASTWARD ON D4/SUN AS THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST. FAVORABLE
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES AND VERY DRY FUELS WILL ENCOURAGE
LIGHTNING-INDUCED STARTS...AND THE ONGOING 10-PERCENT AREAS ARE
MAINTAINED WITH MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. ADDITIONALLY...A 10-PERCENT AREA
IS ADDED ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN FOR D5/MON...WHERE A
RESIDUAL DRY-THUNDER THREAT SHOULD EXIST.

A DISTINCT AREA OF DRY-THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL MAY EXIST ACROSS
CENTRAL/NORTHERN WA D5/MON-D6/TUE...AS THE COMPACT CLOSED LOW PUSHES
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AT PRESENT...FORECAST PW
VALUES/MARGINAL FUELS PRECLUDE THE INTRODUCTION OF A 10-PERCENT
DESIGNATION. HOWEVER...CONSIDERING THE STRENGTH OF FORCING FOR
ASCENT...AND ANTECEDENT DRY/WINDY CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND...A
PROBABILISTIC DRY-THUNDER AREA MAY BECOME NECESSARY IN LATER
FORECASTS.

..PICCA.. 07/28/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

$$



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