Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS28 KWNS 272053

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0352 PM CDT Thu Apr 27 2017

Valid 291200Z - 051200Z

An upper trough/low should be centered over the Four Corners region
Saturday morning, and is then forecast to move eastward across the
Plains on Day 4/Sunday, eventually reaching the Upper Midwest by Day
5/Monday. Enhanced mid-level winds associated with this upper
trough/low will remain over parts of the Southwest and southern
Plains through Day 4/Sunday, and will elevate fire weather concerns
across these areas.

Medium-range guidance remains in good agreement depicting
amplification of an upper ridge over the western CONUS and eastern
Pacific from Day 5/Monday through the end of the forecast period.
Another upper trough should develop southeastward from the
northern/central Rockies into the Plains and eventually the MS
Valley in the same time frame.

...Day 3/Saturday - Day 4/Sunday: Portions of the Southwest and
Southern Plains...
Strong/gusty winds and lowered RH values should develop on Day
3/Saturday across portions of the Southwest into the southern Plains
as enhanced mid-level winds remain across these regions. A
40%/marginal area has been maintained with no changes. Uncertainty
remains regarding RH values falling below 15% on a widespread basis,
which precludes higher probabilities at this time.

By Day 4/Sunday, the enhanced mid-level winds associated with the
previously mentioned northeastward-moving upper trough will
overspread mainly west TX to deep south TX along the Rio Grande. A
40%/marginal area has been continued with no changes across this
region as gusty northwesterly winds should develop, with limited
confidence in the occurrence of both sustained winds above 20 mph
and critically lowered RH values precluding a 70%/critical area.

For Day 5/Monday and beyond, weaker mid-level flow is forecast over
the Southwest and southern Plains, which should tend to limit the
prospect for widespread critical fire weather conditions. Therefore,
no probabilities have been included in this time frame.

...Day 3/Saturday - Day 4/Sunday: Portions of the FL Peninsula...
A relatively dry low-level airmass is forecast to remain across much
of the FL peninsula through at least Day 4/Sunday in the wake of a
prior frontal intrusion. RH values may fall near to/below critical
thresholds each afternoon across interior portions of the FL
peninsula. However, forecast wind speeds do not appear sufficiently
strong to support widespread critical fire weather conditions any
day, which continues to preclude the introduction of 40%/marginal

..Gleason.. 04/27/2017

...Please see for graphic product...

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