Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS28 KWNS 022042
FWDD38

DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0341 PM CDT TUE JUN 02 2015

VALID 041200Z - 101200Z

UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS SWD ALONG THE W
COAST TOWARDS SRN CA. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP A CLOSED
CIRCULATION AND REMAIN CENTERED OVER SRN CA THROUGH AT LEAST D5/SAT.
AFTER D5/SAT...MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THE LOW WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
NWD...REACHING NV BY D7/MON. FARTHER DOWNSTREAM...UPPER RIDGING WILL
REMAIN OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH THE MUCH OF THE PERIOD. SOME
DEAMPLIFICATION IS POSSIBLE ON D6/SUN AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
SEWD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.

SOME FIRE WEATHER THREAT APPEARS TO EXIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHWEST AND SRN HIGH PLAINS ON D3/THU -- DISCUSSED BELOW -- WITH
NO OTHER THREAT AREAS CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD.

...SOUTHWEST...SRN HIGH PLAINS...
MOST RECENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL
CYCLONE ACTIVITY IN THE ERN PACIFIC WILL BE TRANSPORTED NEWD INTO
SRN AZ AS EARLY AS D3/THU AFTERNOON. THIS IS A FEW HOURS QUICKER
THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS AND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SUBSTANTIALLY
TEMPERING ANY POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS SRN AZ. AS A
RESULT...THE PREVIOUS 40 PERCENT AREA WAS TRIMMED NWD WITH SOME
ADDITIONAL TRIMMING POSSIBLE IN SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS IF MODEL TRENDS
CONTINUE. FIRE WEATHER TREAT REMAINS FOR PORTIONS OF CNTRL AZ INTO
CNTRL NM ON D3/THU. ADDITIONALLY...GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT REGARDING THE STRENGTH OF THE LEE LOW ACROSS THE CNTRL
HIGH PLAINS WITH RESULTANT GUSTY SWLY WINDS ACROSS THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS. WHILE THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING FUEL
RECEPTIVITY...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH TO EXPAND THE 40 PERCENT
AREA NEWD ACROSS E-CNTRL/NM NM AND INTO THE FAR NW TX/OK PANHANDLES.
EXPECTED INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...CLOUD COVER...AND
PRECIPITATION SHOULD KEEP ANY FIRE WEATHER THREAT AFTER D3/THU.

..MOSIER.. 06/02/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...



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