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FNUS28 KWNS 282047
FWDD38

DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0346 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2016

VALID 301200Z - 051200Z

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ERN PACIFIC/WRN CONUS IS FORECAST TO MOVE
SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE WRN CONUS FROM D3/TUE THOUGH AT LEAST D5/THU.
LATEST MEDIUM-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING
THE TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORECAST TO ROTATE
AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND ACROSS PARTS OF NRN CA...THE WRN
GREAT BASIN...AND INTERIOR PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON D3/TUE. THE
EVOLUTION OF THE WRN CONUS UPPER TROUGH BECOMES LESS CLEAR FROM
D6/FRI ONWARD...AS MODEL SOLUTIONS REGARDING THIS FEATURE DIVERGE.
REGARDLESS...ENHANCED MID-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD OVERLIE PORTIONS OF THE
GREAT BASIN AND INTERIOR PACIFIC NORTHWEST FROM D3/TUE THOUGH AT
LEAST D5/THU.

...D3/TUE - D5/THU: PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN AND INTERIOR PACIFIC
NORTHWEST...
FOR D3/TUE...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE WILL MOVE NEWD
ACROSS NRN CA...THE WRN GREAT BASIN...AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A BELT OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL WINDS ATTENDANT TO
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SPREAD OVER THIS REGION...AND THE
POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A SUFFICIENT OVERLAP OF STRONG/GUSTY
LOW-LEVEL WINDS WITH CRITICALLY LOWERED RH VALUES AND DRY FUELS TO
SUPPORT THE CONTINUATION OF A 40 PERCENT/MARGINAL AREA WITH MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS. IN ADDITION...LOW CONFIDENCE REMAINS IN THE POSSIBILITY
OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING ON D3/TUE ALONG/E OF THE
CASCADES/NRN SIERRAS SUCH THAT A 10 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF ISOLATED
DRY THUNDERSTORMS FOR FAR NERN CA AND PARTS OF CNTRL/ERN ORE HAS
BEEN MAINTAINED. ACROSS THIS REGION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
MARGINAL PWAT VALUES SUPPORTING GENERALLY DRY THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
WITH A WELL-MIXED/DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER AND ENHANCED MID-LEVEL WINDS.
LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CONVECTION MAY STRUGGLE TO DEVELOP...AND
COVERAGE APPEARS ISOLATED AT BEST.

FOR D4/WED AND D5/THU...ENHANCED SWLY MID-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST
TO REMAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL/NRN GREAT BASIN. 40
PERCENT/MARGINAL PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN INTRODUCED FOR BOTH DAYS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THIS REGION WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST IN AN
OVERLAP OF STRONG/GUSTY WINDS WITH LOWERED RH VALUES AND DRY FUELS.

..GLEASON.. 08/28/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

$$



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