Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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000
FNUS28 KWNS 292102
FWDD38

DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0401 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

VALID 311200Z - 061200Z

AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN CHARACTERIZED BY A PAIR OF UPPER TROUGHS AND A
CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE IS LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
THE PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE AN
AMPLIFYING PACIFIC UPPER TROUGH...WHICH IS FORECAST TO BECOME
CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN THIS WEEKEND. AN INCREASE IN WIND
SPEEDS IS LIKELY TO OCCUR OVER PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN AND
INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...BUT GENERALLY COOL
TEMPERATURES SHOULD MITIGATE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW RH ACROSS THESE
AREAS. OF MORE CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR OFFSHORE WINDS
DEVELOPING ACROSS SRN CA EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...MODEL SOLUTIONS
BEGIN TO DIVERGE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...LENDING LOW CONFIDENCE TO
THE MAGNITUDE/TIMING OF THIS EVENT.

...SUN/D5 THROUGH WED/D8 -- SRN CA...
OFFSHORE WINDS APPEAR LIKELY TO DEVELOP AS EARLY AS SUN/D5 ACROSS
PARTS OF SRN CA AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE
GREAT BASIN IN THE WAKE OF A DEEP UPPER TROUGH. THE SFC HIGH IS
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH TUE/D7...WHEN THE OFFSHORE GRADIENT
MAY SUPPORT THE STRONGEST WINDS ACROSS FAVORED AREAS OF SRN CA.

HOWEVER...POTENTIALLY LIMITING FACTORS EXIST THAT PRECLUDE
PROBABILISTIC DELINEATION ATTM. MODEL UNCERTAINTY DEPICTING THE
UPPER TROUGH EVOLUTION...AND ASSOCIATED SFC HIGH PRESSURE...REMAINS
HIGH DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THE ECMWF DEPICTS A SLOWER AND DEEPER
UPPER TROUGH...AND A STRONGER OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT...WHILE
OTHER SOLUTIONS SHOW A MORE PROGRESSIVE EVOLUTION.
ADDITIONALLY...WETTING RAINS ARE POSSIBLE ON SAT/D4...AND
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN COOL THROUGHOUT THE WEEK IN THE
WAKE OF A COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT BASIN...DESPITE
DOWNSLOPE/OFFSHORE WINDS AND A DRYING BOUNDARY LAYER.

..ROGERS.. 10/29/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...




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