Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS21 KWNS 081650
FWDDY1

DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1049 AM CST MON FEB 08 2016

VALID 081700Z - 091200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES
IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SW OK SEWD TO THE CNTRL/ERN TX
COAST...

...SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...
CRITICAL METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS ARE ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF SRN CA
THIS MORNING WITH RECENT OBSERVATIONS DEPICTING SUSTAINED WINDS FROM
20-25 MPH /WITH GUSTS NEAR 30-40 MPH/ AND RH VALUES BELOW 20
PERCENT. RH VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS
TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 80S. THE WINDS WILL LIKELY WEAKEN SOME AS
THE OFFSHORE GRADIENT DECREASES BUT CRITICAL METEOROLOGICAL
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST. FUELS REMAIN THE MOST RECEPTIVE
ACROSS LA AND VENTURA COUNTIES...RESULTING IN A CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER THREAT...WHILE THE THREAT FOR AREAS FARTHER S WILL BE
TEMPERED BY LESS RECEPTIVE FUELS.

...PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AMIDST A DRY...POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS IS STILL
EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO A LARGE AREA WITH MIN RH VALUES BELOW 20
PERCENT...DESPITE COLD ADVECTION AND BELOW-AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES
/GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S/. NWLY WINDS ARE ALREADY
ABOVE 20 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH FOR MOST OF THE REGION. PREVIOUS
CRITICAL AREA WAS EXTENDED NWWD TO INCLUDE AREAS WHERE TEMPERATURES
ARE NOW EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND SEWD TO INCLUDE AREAS
WHERE GUIDANCE INDICATES MIN RH VALUES WILL LIKELY BE BELOW 20
PERCENT. WESTERN EXTENT OF THE CRITICAL AREA WAS DETERMINED BY THE
CONFIDENCE IN SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS GREATER THAN 20 MPH WHILE THE
EASTERN EXTENT WAS DETERMINED BY CONFIDENCE IN MIN RH VALUES BELOW
25 PERCENT. ADDITIONALLY...THE ELEVATED AREA WAS EXPANDED SLIGHTLY
IN ALL DIRECTIONS. THE EWD EXPANSION WAS MADE TO ACCOUNT FOR HIGHER
CONFIDENCE IN SUFFICIENT OVERLAP BETWEEN THE GUSTY WINDS AND MIN RH
VALUES NEAR 25 PERCENT WHILE THE WRN EXPANSION WAS MADE TO INCLUDE
AREAS WHERE CONFIDENCE IN SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN 15-20 MPH
INCREASED.

..MOSIER.. 02/08/2016

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0303 AM CST MON FEB 08 2016/

...SYNOPSIS...
AN AMPLIFIED...YET QUASI-STATIONARY SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE ACROSS THE COUNTRY TODAY AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER
MICHIGAN SPREADS INTENSE CYCLONICALLY-CURVED MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS
THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CONUS.  FARTHER WEST...AN UPPER RIDGE
WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ALONG THE WEST COAST AND AREAS WEST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.  AT THE SURFACE...A COUPLE OF LOW PRESSURE
AREAS...ONE OVER LAKE ERIE AND ANOTHER OVER THE GULF STREAM...WILL
SPREAD BROAD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND A CONTINENTAL AIRMASS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY...WITH DRY AREAS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS EXPERIENCING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS AFTERNOON.
A SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ALSO...RESULTING IN OFFSHORE FLOW AND INCREASED
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IN PARTS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.

...SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...
A CRITICAL ATMOSPHERIC FIRE WEATHER ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
FROM MID-MORNING ONWARD TODAY ACROSS THE AREA.  THE OFFSHORE
GRADIENT CAUSED BY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL
RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS IN THE REGION
/APPROACHING 60 MPH IN TERRAIN-FAVORED AREAS/.  TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE MID 80S F DUE TO FULL SUNSHINE AND THE
NORTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPE...WHILE SURFACE RH VALUES FALL TO 12-18
PERCENT.  AT THIS TIME...THE CRITICAL DELINEATION IS COLLOCATED WITH
THE AREAS OF DRIEST FUELS IN VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES.
SURROUNDING THE CRITICAL AREA...FUELS ARE SOMEWHAT LESS SUPPORTIVE
OF A HIGHER FIRE WEATHER THREAT BUT AN ELEVATED AREA WILL BE
MAINTAINED IN THIS FORECAST GIVEN THE HIGHER-END ATMOSPHERIC
ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE.  THIS REGION WILL BE RE-EVALUATED LATER TODAY.

...PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...
THE STRONG SYNOPTIC-SCALE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW PRESSURE
AREAS IN THE EAST AND HIGH OVER THE WEST WILL CONTRIBUTE TO GUSTY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY.  10-20 MPH WIND
SPEEDS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON IN SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE ELEVATED REGION TODAY...WITH STRONGER GUSTS
/APPROACHING 40 MPH/ EXPECTED FROM NORTH TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS.
 RH VALUES REGION-WIDE SHOULD FALL TO NEAR 20-30 PERCENT DURING PEAK
HEATING PERIODS TODAY.  FUELS IN THIS REGION ARE DRY AND CONDUCIVE
FOR FIRE GROWTH/SPREAD GIVEN A GENERAL LACK OF RAINFALL OVER THE
PAST 30 DAYS /ESPECIALLY IN TEXAS/.  FARTHER NORTH INTO
KANSAS...SURFACE TEMPERATURES /40-45F/ ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONLY
MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR A HEIGHTENED FIRE WEATHER THREAT...BUT DRY
FUELS...FULL SUNSHINE...WINDY CONDITIONS...AND THE PRESENCE OF LARGE
FIRES IN THAT REGION YESTERDAY SUGGEST THAT THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT
THERE JUSTIFIES AN ELEVATED DELINEATION THIS AFTERNOON.

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

$$


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