Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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000
FNUS21 KWNS 251639
FWDDY1

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1038 AM CST Sat Feb 25 2017

Valid 251700Z - 261200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO...

...Portions of eastern/southern New Mexico, far west Texas, and the
Texas Panhandle...
The only change to the previous outlook areas was to expand the
elevated a bit northward into more of central NM where the latest
guidance suggests temperatures will reach the mid 50s with minimum
RH values in the mid teens. Critical conditions are still
anticipated across portions of eastern NM where sustained
southwesterly winds from 20-25 mph will align with minimum RH values
in the low to mid teens. No changes were needed to the critical
delineation. Elsewhere across the region, elevated to locally
critical conditions are anticipated as southwesterly winds around
15-20 mph occur amidst afternoon RH values in the mid to upper
teens.

...Portions of Central Georgia, Southeast AL, Western FL panhandle,
and the Carolinas...
As described in the previous forecast discussion (below), the
airmass across the region is expected to dry quickly after the
passage of the cold front, with minimum RH values dropping below 25
percent. Northwesterly winds are expected to remain around 10-15 mph
with locally higher winds possible, especially just after the
initial frontal passage. Most recent guidance and current surface
observations suggest the elevated fire weather threat will likely
extend farther southwest into south-central/southeast AL and the
western FL panhandle and the outlook was extended southwestward
accordingly.

..Mosier.. 02/25/2017

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0113 AM CST Sat Feb 25 2017/

...Synopsis...
A sharp shortwave trough will become negatively tilted as it
advances across the lower Great Lakes and portions of the
Mid-Atlantic. Trailing to the southwest, a corridor of enhanced
westerly flow aloft will establish across the southern Plains and
Southeast. At the surface, a cyclone will lift northeast into
western Quebec, with a trailing cold front pushing eastward towards
the Atlantic coast. Behind this front, expansive high pressure will
build across the central/eastern US. Along its western periphery,
westerly flow across the southern Rockies will encourage weak lee
troughing over the southern high Plains.

...Portions of eastern/southern New Mexico, far west Texas, and the
Texas Panhandle...
A combination of diurnal mixing and some tightening of the surface
pressure gradient will lead to breezy conditions today. The
strongest winds will likely exist over parts of the eastern plains
of New Mexico, where sustained southwesterly winds around 20 mph
will combine with RH values around 10-15 percent and dry fuels to
produce a critical fire-weather threat. Across southern New Mexico
and parts of Texas, sustained winds around 15 mph and RH values near
10-20 percent will result in primarily elevated fire-weather
concerns.

...Portions of Georgia and the Carolinas...
A dry post-frontal air mass will overspread the region today, with
precipitable-water values falling below 0.25 inches. Downslope
westerly winds will enhance low-level drying such that RH values
fall into the 25-35 percent range. With high pressure building to
the west and increasing westerly flow aloft, breezy conditions
should materialize. Sustained winds around 15-20 mph, with
occasional gusts of 25-30 mph, are expected. Fuels should be
receptive to fire spread, considering the lack of rainfall over the
last week or so. In turn, elevated/locally critical concerns should
develop by late morning/early afternoon.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$


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