Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS21 KWNS 161628
FWDDY1

DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1128 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

VALID 161700Z - 171200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHWEST OK AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SOUTHEAST AZ...SOUTHWEST AND
S-CENTRAL NM...FAR SOUTHWEST TX...

SOME ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE CRITICAL AREAS BASED ON
CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE REGION AND 12Z MODEL
GUIDANCE.  OTHERWISE PREVIOUS FORECAST REASONING IS ON TRACK. PLEASE
SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR DETAILS.

..LEITMAN.. 04/16/2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0349 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014/

...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES
TODAY. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE CNTRL
PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AS ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPS IN THE LEE OF
THE SRN ROCKIES...WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING SEWD THROUGH THE PLAINS.

...AZ...NM...FAR W TX...
MODERATE WLY FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH A WARM AND DRY AIRMASS TO
PRODUCE ELEVATED TO POTENTIALLY CRITICAL CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. FOR THE CRITICAL AREA FROM ERN AZ/WRN NM INTO
FAR W TX...SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-25 MPH EXPECTED AS RH VALUES DROP
TO 5-15 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON. SURROUNDING THIS AREA...SOMEWHAT
LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED...BUT VERY DRY CONDITIONS WILL STILL
SUPPORT ELEVATED CONDITIONS.

...CNTRL/W TX NEWD INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS...
ELEVATED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE DRY
LOW-LEVEL JET REGIME AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FROM PARTS OF CNTRL/W
TX INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-30 MPH WILL DEVELOP
THIS MORNING ACROSS THIS AREA AND PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY...THOUGH SOME WEAKENING IS EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE
EXTENT OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL LARGELY BE DETERMINED BY THE
COVERAGE OF CRITICAL RH. TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE RECENT TENDENCY FOR
MOST MODEL GUIDANCE TO BE TOO MOIST IN THESE TYPES OF REGIMES...THE
GREATEST CONFIDENCE IN DEVELOPMENT OF CRITICAL RH CURRENTLY RUNS
FROM PARTS OF NW TX NEWD INTO S-CNTRL KS. BORDERLINE CRITICAL
CONDITIONS MAY EXTEND FURTHER NORTHEAST...BUT WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE
IN RH AND HEAVIER RECENT RAINFALL COMPARED TO AREAS FURTHER TO THE
SOUTHWEST...ONLY AN ELEVATED DESIGNATION WILL BE MADE IN THIS AREA.

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...



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