Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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000
FNUS75 KGJT 192250
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR CHIMNEY ROCK RX...SAN JUAN NF
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
450 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1030 MDT ON OCTOBER 20.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS FELL OVER THE BURN
SITE SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD END WITH SUNSET. WITH CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT THE INVERSION SHOULD NOT BE STRONG AND WILL BREAK AROUND
BURN TIME. THEN UPSLOPE WINDS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
AFTERNOON BUILDUPS SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN BUT WATCH
FOR NEARBY SHOWERS OR VIRGA THAT COULD PRODUCE ERRATIC WINDS. THEN
THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS INCREASES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS
A PACIFIC TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MARCHES TOWARDS THE REGION.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40%). BUILDUPS IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....66-69 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........30-35%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH IN THE
                    AFTERNOON. GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS POSSIBLE FROM
                    NEARBY BUILDUPS IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1100...THEN GOOD BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1800 FT AGL INCREASING TO 8500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 5 MPH SHIFTING TO SOUTHEAST 2-5 MPH
                    BY 1100...THEN SOUTHWEST 4-8 GUSTS TO 15 MPH
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50%). ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....38-43 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........80-85%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS 5 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR EXCEPT GOOD IN OR NEAR SHOWERS AND
                    STORMS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......COLLAPSING TO LESS THAN 1000 FT AGL
                    EXCEPT UP TO TO 8000 FT AGL NEAR SHOWERS/STORMS.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....ERRATIC...BUT FAVORING EAST 5 MPH.

.TUESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE
                    MORNING...THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....58-63 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........35-40%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST IN
                    THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
                    NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR BECOMING EXCELLENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 8000 FT AGL LATE IN
                    THE MORNING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.

$$
FORECASTER...JOE RAMEY
REQUESTED BY...FRED ELLIS
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20141020.CHIMN.01/GJT



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