Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC

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AGUS74 KFWR 141646
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1045 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

                VALID FEBRUARY 14 THROUGH FEBRUARY 19

...RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO PORTIONS OF EAST TEXAS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW....

                  ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...
Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop late this
afternoon over East Texas in response to an upper level
disturbance approaching from the west. By this evening/tonight,
a cold front is also expected to move into portions of North
Texas. This feature will allow some additional showers and
thunderstorms to develop across North and Northeast Texas during
the overnight hours. Overall, precipitation amounts of 0.25 to 0.50
inch are expected across North and East Texas. Higher precipitation
amounts are expected across extreme Northeast Texas. This activity
is not expected to cause any additional flooding across the area.
All precipitation should be completely out of the area by tomorrow
evening.

By late Tuesday, an upper ridge is expected to return over
the area and will once again bring drier weather to the region
through the end of next week.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Monday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP)
amounts of up to 1.00 inch are forecast for portions of East and
Northeast Texas.

For Monday into Tuesday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Tuesday into Wednesday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Wednesday into Friday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.

Soil moisture has begun to decrease and soils have become somewhat
drier due to the lack of significant precipitation lately and warmer
than normal temperatures.  As a result, it would take a bit more
rainfall than usual for significant runoff to occur. Over Texas,
2% of the state is categorized as abnormally dry, but this amount is
expected to increase given the current dry weather pattern. Over New
Mexico, 9% of the state is abnormally dry, and that is mostly
confined to the western portions of the state.  No precipitation is
expected over the next 5 days so no runoff will occur.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...Trinity Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
CART2 on the Elm Fork is expected to remain in minor flood stage
as dam releases continue to lower their pool elevation. Dam
release changes are expected this week.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
No significant precipitation is expected over the next several
days, so river responses are expected to be minimal.



              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

MCCANTS


$$





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