Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC

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AGUS74 KFWR 291519
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1019 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

                   VALID MARCH 29 THROUGH APRIL 3

           ...ANOTHER DAY OF DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS...

                  ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...
The next 12-24 hours will remain rain free across most of the
WGRFC area. By late tonight/early tomorrow, a cold front is
expected to move into portions of North Texas and stall thereafter.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will begin to develop along
the Red River and extreme Northeast Texas around midnight. Average
rainfall amounts of 0.25 inch or less are expected for this area.
Most of this activity will remain fairly isolated, therefore
no widespread rainfall or flooding is expected.

Another storm system, currently moving over the Pacific Ocean,
will continue moving eastward towards the Baja California...and
eventually towards the WGRFC area early this week. This system is
expected to bring another chance of precipitation to parts of New
Mexico, southern Colorado, and southwest Texas...late tomorrow into
Tuesday morning. A better chance for showers and thunderstorms
exists for the remainder of the WGRFC area....mainly within the
Tuesday-Thursday time frame. At this time, precipitation amounts are
not expected to be significant enough to cause any additional river
flooding across the WGRFC area through Friday. We will continue to
monitor the progress and any changes with this system over the
coming days.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Monday morning, no significant Mean Areal
Precipitation (MAP) amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Monday into Tuesday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Tuesday into Wednesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50
inch are forecast for North and Central Texas. Mainly along the
I-35 corridor.

For Wednesday into Friday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50
inch are forecast for the eastern two-thirds of the WGRFC area.

Moderate or worse drought conditions continue across parts of New
Mexico and Texas. In Texas, about a third of the state is
experiencing moderate or worse drought (36%), and about 14% has
extreme to exceptional drought conditions. In New Mexico, about two
thirds of the state is experiencing moderate or worse drought
(62%). Lake levels in these extreme drought areas are at or near
historical lows for this time of year. Recent precipitation events
have brought some drought relief, with no drought remaining over
deep south, east central and southeast Texas into western Louisiana.
The rainfall which is forecast the next five days over the WGRFC
area will not be heavy enough to create new or additional runoff.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...Neches Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Widespread minor flooding continues throughout the Neches and
Angelina River mainstems and associated bayous. Although minor
flood conditions will continue through this week, all points have
crested and are slowly receding. Sam Rayburn Reservoir has resumed
power generation that will allow flood storage to be slowly
evacuated. Lake Steinhagen releases will continue to hold near
20,000 cfs until Sam Rayburn Lake is able to completely evacuate
the flood pool, likely via generation. This process is expected to
take several weeks.

...Sabine Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Toledo Bend Reservoir releases have decreased over the past few
days. Falling stages are working their way downstream on the
lower Sabine River. Bon Wier (BWRT2) will fall below flood stage
this evening. Minor flooding at very slowly receding levels
continues at Deweyville (DWYT2) with more steadily falling stages
expected by mid week.

...Trinity Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
The Trinity River downstream of Lake Livingston is receding
steadily. Only Moss Bluff (MBFT2) remains above bankfull, and this
will fall below criteria early this coming week.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
Steady to falling stages are expected in most locations because of
a period of dry weather. Soils are very wet over east and southeast
Texas after the recent rainfall episode. However, some additional
reduction in soil moisture is expected in the next few days prior
to a return of rainfall to the area. Significant flooding is not
expected over the next five days.


              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

MCCANTS


$$





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