Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC

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AGUS74 KFWR 141601
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1100 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2014

                    VALID JULY 14 THROUGH JULY 19

...STRONG COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS TEXAS BY MIDWEEK...

                    ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

An upper level trough is currently forming over the Great Lake
region.  This trough is forecast to deepen into north and northeast
Texas Tuesday.

A strong cold front is forecast to move into north Texas tonight
Monday and move slowly across Texas through Wednesday.  A surface low
pressure system will set up over west Texas late Wednesday, feeding
moisture into the eastern half of Texas through Friday.

This upper level trough in conjunction with the cold front will bring
precipitation to the WGRFC area.  Heavy rainfall is forecast to
occur across north and east Texas Wednesday through Saturday morning.

Monsoonal activity is also occurring over New Mexico into southern
Colorado. Rainfall associated with this is helping to alleviate
adverse impacts due to the on-going drought over the region.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Tuesday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP)
amounts ranging from 0.25 to 0.50 inches are forecast over most of
New Mexico, southern Colorado, the Texas Panhandle, east Texas, and
western Louisiana.

For Tuesday into Wednesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inches
are forecast over New Mexico, southern Colorado, and the Texas
Panhandle.  MAP amounts of 0.25 inches are forecast over far east
Texas and western Louisiana.

For Wednesday into Thursday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 2.00
inches are forecast over north Texas into Oklahoma.  MAP amounts of
0.25 to 0.50 inches are forecast over New Mexico and southern
Colorado.

For Thursday into Saturday morning, MAP amounts of 1.00 to 2.00
inches are forecast over north and northeast Texas.  MAP amounts of
0.25 to 0.50 inches are forecast over central Texas, southeast Texas,
and the Texas Panhandle.  MAP amounts of 0.25 inches are forecast
over northern New Mexico and southern Colorado.

Extreme to exceptional drought persists over parts of southwest
Texas, as well as over the western parts of north Texas into the
Texas Panhandle and northeast New Mexico.  Statewide, less than 1%
of New Mexico and about 5% of Texas are in exceptional drought.
But, severe drought conditions are impacting 86% of New Mexico and
37% of Texas.  During the next 5 days the rainfall will not be heavy
enough to produce runoff due to the dry antecedent soil moisture
conditions for Texas.  Expected rainfall over the next 5 days could
produce some runoff over New Mexico.  Mainstem river flooding is not
expected.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...WGRFC Basins...
Rainfall forecasted in the next five days is not expected to cause
significant flooding in the WGRFC area of responsibility. Localized
runoff is possible later in the week.

              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

SHULTZ


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