Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC

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AGUS74 KFWR 231630
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1128 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

               VALID SEPTEMBER 23 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 28

...WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN BY THE END OF THE WEEK...

                   ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

A continued drying trend is expected across much of the WGRFC area
through the end of the week. The latest radar mosaic shows very
little precipitation across the region. Scattered showers are
expected the next 24 hours across portions of New Mexico and the
southeast Texas coast, however widespread significant amounts
are not expected. These areas can expect amounts of
0.25 inch or less with some higher isolated amounts of up to 0.50
inch. Drier air is continuing to move into portions of New
Mexico and West Texas this morning, which should allow the
atmosphere to dry out a bit and help improve flooding conditions
across the Pecos river system.

An upper level system currently moving east across the Northern
Plains, will allow an upper level ridge to build later
this week. As the ridge builds and shifts northeastward, it will
send an upper disturbance westward over portions of Deep
South Texas and the southeast Texas coast. Showers and
thunderstorms are expected over this area beginning tomorrow and
continuing through the end of the week. The higher amounts should
remain offshore and over northern Mexico. Overall, the upper
level pattern should help inhibit some of the areal coverage of
precipitation over the next couple days. However, rain chances
will remain in the forecast for the WGRFC through mid week, with
the exception of Northeast and East Texas, where hot and dry weather
will continue.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Wednesday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP)
amounts of 0.25 inch or less are forecast for portions of
southeastern New Mexico and Deep South Texas.

For Wednesday into Thursday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inch or
less are forecast for portions of the Texas Panhandle and
Deep South Texas

For Thursday into Friday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch
are forecast for portions the southeast Texas coast. Higher amounts
are forecast but expected to remain offshore.

For Friday into Sunday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch are
forecast for portions of southern Colorado, northern New Mexico and
the southeast Texas coast.

Drought persists but is slowly improving over Texas and New Mexico.
Statewide, New Mexico has no areas of exceptional drought, while
less than 2% of Texas remains in exceptional drought. Severe drought
conditions are impacting less than 40% of New Mexico and 35% of
Texas.  Runoff is expected to continue across far west Texas, as
well as over southeastern New Mexico for the few days.  Runoff
leading to significant mainstem river flooding may occur on the
Pecos River in addition to flash flooding in southeast New Mexico
and west Texas. No significant runoff is expected over the eastern
portions of Texas for the forecast period.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...Colorado Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
The Colorado River at Colorado City (CDCT2) has finally crested
and should continue to fall over the next few days. Flooding is
forecast to end this evening as the water continues on downstream.
An informational forecast was issued for Colorado Rvier above Silver
(SILT2) due to the expected rise in the river and the length of time
since the last rise.

...Rio Grande Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
The largest concern in the Rio Grande basin continues to be
potential flows from the Rio Conchos out of northern Mexico into the
Rio Grande at Presidio.  Current forecasts are for minor flood
levels at Presido downstream of the International Bridge (PRST2) and
at the weir (PRDT2). Flows in the Rio Conchos have been stable with
little change. No significant rainfall is forecast in the Conchos
basin for the next five days. WGRFC will continue to monitor the Rio
Grande conditions and adjust forecasts accordingly.

...Pecos Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
The storm system over southeastern New Mexico finally dissipated
yesterday evening. Brantley Reservoir continues to hold all inflows
and has adequate flood storage available; it will not be making
releases to contribute to existing downstream flooding. Downstream,
Lake Avalon spillway discharge has crested and continues to slowly
recede. Below Avalon, the Pecos mainstem and associated streams and
tributaries have crested and are now receding.  Model simulations
indicate that inflows into Red Bluff Reservoir have peaked.
Red Bluff reservoir continues to very slowly rise appearing to be
approaching a crest.  Current lake elevation is 2832.27 with a
spillway discharge of around 7500 cfs. Current projection is for
the spillway discharge to crest around 9,000 cfs overnight tonight.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
In a rare reversal, soil states out in Central and West Texas as
well as New Mexico are fully saturated while the basins in East
Texas remain fairly dry. Rainfall forecasts are much lower then
recent days; therefore, all other basins are expected to remain near
normal flow conditions.


              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

MCCANTS


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