Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC

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AGUS74 KFWR 251600
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1100 AM CDT THU AUG 25 2016

                  VALID AUGUST 25 THROUGH AUGUST 30

...RAINS TO CONTINUE THIS WEEK WITH FOCUS ON THE MONSOONAL
ACTIVITIES IN THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE WGRFC...

                  ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

A cold front reached New Mexico overnight and is now advancing east
into the Rio Grande Valley. Additional atmospheric moisture from the
Pacific will enhance the likelihood of storm chances through Friday,
with locally heavy rain and a moderate increase in localized flash
flood potential.  A large subtropical ridge over the Southeast U.S.
will keep the trough from moving east any time soon so storm chances
will linger through the week. The potential for heavy rain should be
monitored as a high levels of atmosphere moisture remains in place
through the weekend.  The heaviest amounts of rain are expected
over west Texas and eastern New Mexico from today into Friday.

North and Central Texas has been relatively dry pattern for much of
the week, as the subtropical upper high over the southeastern US
continued to expanding westward over the area.  The upper level
high, though, is going to shift slightly eastward the next few days.
As a result, by Friday morning an easterly wave of low pressure may
will move over east Texas which will likely bring a chance for
showers to east Texas and most of Louisiana.  Then by Saturday this
wave may produce some rain closer to southeast Texas and the
entire Texas Gulf coast.

A drying trend will begin Sunday, then intensify roughly the first
half of the work week. The eastern US ridge of high pressure will
build back westward once again and deliver mostly dry conditions to
most of Texas away from the Gulf shoreline.  But over the west high
pressure off Baja California is forecast to build toward New Mexico
and camp out for at least a while over the four corners area by
midweek next week.  Since there will continue to be high amounts of
atmospheric moisture present from the eastern Pacific the latter half
of this week, diurnal showers and thunderstorms will be possible
especially across far west Texas.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Friday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP)
amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 of an inch are forecast for far west Texas
and the eastern half of New Mexico and for a small portion of
southeast Texas.

For Friday into Saturday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 of an
inch are forecast for the eastern third of Texas.

For Saturday into Sunday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 of an
inch are forecast for the El Paso area and for the Houston area.

For Sunday into Tuesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 are forecast
for the El Paso across the southeastern section of New Mexico and
into the Texas Panhandle and for the Texas coast.

After the widespread rain the past seven days over parts of New
Mexico and Texas, drought conditions have eased somewhat.  The U.S.
Drought Monitor has categorized Texas as 29% abnormally dry, with
less than 1% in severe drought. Over New Mexico, 88% of the state is
abnormally dry, and 24% remains in the moderate drought category.
The showers and thunderstorms forecast this week will keep more
serious drought conditions from developing over the WGRFC region,
while many sections continue drought-free.  Since topsoil has become
moister, some runoff is possible where the heaviest rain is forecast.
However, as the weather dries out some this week most of the runoff
will be insignificant across the majority of the WGRFC area.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...San Antonio Basin...
...Major Flooding...
The San Antonio River at Runge has crested and is falling rapidly.
That water has reached Goliad (GLIT2) and should be cresting later
today near major flood before receding rapidly as well.

...Guadalupe Basin...
...Moderate Flooding...
Lower end of the Guadalupe River continues to move flood waters to the
Gulf. Sandies Creek (WHOT2) has crested and is expected to fall below
minor flood later today. The Guadalupe at Victoria (VICT2) has
crested and will continue to stay elevated as water from upstream
works through the area. Bloomington (DUPT2) still on the rise but
should crest later today in moderate flood before receding.

...Nueces Basin...
...Moderate Flooding...
The upper Nueces basin continues to deal with the heavy rainfall that
fell over the weekend which will create out of bank flow at a few
sites. The Nueces River at Three Rivers (THET2) is in moderate flood
now and should crest shortly before a fairly rapid recession over the
next couple of days.

...Trinity Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Out of bank to minor flooding continues in the upper West Fork of
the Trinity River from releases from Bridgeport.  This should continue
for the next several days.

...Brazos Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
Middle Yegua Creek near Dime Box (DMYT2) has crested and continues to
fall below flood stage. The Brazos River at Hempstead (HPDT2) has
crested and is falling with Richmond (RMOT2) cresting now above
action stage. No further rises are expected.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
Rainfall has tapered off for the area, so all other sites will remain
in bank and on the recession as water works its way downstream.  Soils
are back to being fairly saturated which will lead to more frequent
flooding if rainfall were to occur over the next 5 days.



              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org/reservoirs/statewide

CAZIER


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