Hazardous Weather Outlook
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FLUS43 KSGF 250949
HWOSGF

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
449 AM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-261000-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
449 AM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Elevated Hail risk.
  Elevated Thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Limited Flooding risk.
  Significant Lightning risk.
  Limited Non thunderstorm wind risk.

DISCUSSION...

  Southerly wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph can be expected from
  mid-morning through this afternoon.

  Thunderstorms will develop early this evening across
  eastern Kansas and northeastern Oklahoma. This activity is
  expected to form into a broken line of thunderstorms which
  will then track east across portions of the outlook area
  later tonight. The leading edge of these thunderstorms will
  likely reach the U.S. 65 corridor after midnight.

  Moderate amounts of instability and wind shear will result
  in a threat for strong to severe thunderstorms, especially
  west of a Warsaw to Bolivar to Monett line. Damaging wind
  gusts over 60 mph and hail up to the size of half dollars
  will be the primary severe weather threats.

  Frequent lightning and locally heavy rainfall can also be
  expected with these storms. There will be a limited risk
  for flooding over locations that receive multiple rounds
  of thunderstorms overnight across western Missouri and
  southeastern Kansas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

  The threat for severe storms will then continue into
  Wednesday and Wednesday evening, especially along and east
  of a Rolla to Ava to Branson line. The threat for severe
  storms will be highly dependent on how much thunderstorm
  activity occurs tonight, and whether or not this activity
  reaches the eastern Missouri Ozarks Wednesday morning.

  If thunderstorms reach the eastern Ozarks by Wednesday
  morning, the threat for severe storms may diminish for
  the remainder of Wednesday. However, if thunderstorms
  remain absent tonight and Wednesday morning across south-
  central Missouri and the eastern Ozarks, there will be
  an elevated threat for severe storms Wednesday afternoon
  and evening. Damaging winds and large hail would be the
  primary potential hazards across the eastern Ozarks,
  with a limited threat for a tornado or two. A limited
  risk for flooding will also exist on Wednesday generally
  along and east of the U.S. 65 corridor.

  Confidence then continues to increase in the potential for
  widespread heavy rainfall from later Friday into the weekend.
  With soils nearly saturated, excessive runoff will be likely and
  will lead to an increasing risk for flooding. While details
  remain unclear regarding where the eventual axis of heaviest
  rainfall will develop, it does appear that widespread flooding
  will become possible beneath this axis of heaviest rainfall.

  Additionally, there will be at least a limited risk for
  strong to severe thunderstorms from Friday into Saturday
  across southern Missouri.

  Those with outdoor and travel plans for this upcoming
  weekend should pay close attention to the forecast as there
  is the potential for multiple weather hazards, including
  the potential for widespread flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  Spotter activation may be needed this evening and overnight
  tonight across western Missouri and extreme southeastern
  Kansas.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/sitrep

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

$$

Schaumann



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