Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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000
AGNT40 KWNM 150742
MIMATN

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N ATLANTIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
345 AM EDT MON 15 SEP 2014

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 50W FROM 30N TO 50N.

02Z HI RES ASCAT-A INDICATED LOW PRES INVOF 37N70W ALONG STNRY
FRONT AND ALSO HAD SOME WINDS TO 20 KT OVER N QUAD IN GULF
STREAM. NOT SURPRISINGLY...OF THE 00Z MDLS ONLY THE 13KM RAP AND
NAM CAPTURED THESE 20 KT WINDS. PSN OF FRONT IN RELATION TO
LOCATION TO GULF STREAM WILL RESULT IN COUNTERFLOW SCENARIO TDA
AS WEAK LOWS MOVE NE ALONG FRONT SO PLAN TO POPULATE WITH THE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER 00Z NAM WINDS TDA INTO TUE WHICH OFFER
COMPROMISE BETWEEN STRONGER 05Z RAP AND WEAKER 00Z GLOBAL MDL
CONSENSUS. 00Z HI RES ECMWF IS ALSO PICKING UP ON THE SLIGHTLY
STRONGER LOW OVER NERN NT2 WATERS LATE TNGT AND TUE AS SEEN IN
00Z NAM. FRONT SHOULD DRIFT E OF MID ATLC OFFSHORE WATERS TNGT
AS HIGH PRES MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGL COAST AND RIDGE EXTENDING SW
ALONG MID ATLC COAST. 00Z MDLS IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN MOVING
ANOTHER COLD FRONT OFF THE MID ATLC COAST TUE INTO TUE NGT THAT
SHOULD STALL OVER SRN NT2 WATERS WED. MDLS THEN DIVERGE LATER
WED THRU THU WITH SFC LOW DVLPMNT ALONG FRONT. 00Z UKMET HAS
BECOME A STRONG OUTLIER WHILE 00Z GFS WAS MOSTLY CONSISTENT AND
REMAINS WEAKER. IN ADDITION 00Z UKMET SFC LOW TRACK AND FRONT
PSN LOOK SUSPECT AT THAT TIME. 00Z ECMWF APPEARS AS GOOD
COMPROMISE BETWEEN ABOVE MDLS. BY FRI/FRI NGT MDLS ALL MOVE
STRONG HIGH PRES THRU NEW ENGL AND OFF THE NEW ENGL COAST
RESULTING IN E TO NE OFFSHORE PRES GRADIENT. MAIN DETERMINISTIC
MDL DIFFERENCES LIE WITH STRENGTH OF E TO NE WINDS OVER SRN NT2
WATERS FRI AND FRI NGT...WITH 00Z ECMWF A BIT WEAKER THAN 00Z
GFS OR 00Z UKMET. 00Z GLOBAL GEM LOOKS TOO STRONG WITH YET
ANOTHER SFC LOW OVER SERN NT2 WATERS FRI AND EVEN INDICATES NE
WINDS REACHING GALE. FOR FRI/FRI NGT AND WILL BLEND 00Z ECMWF
AND 00Z GFS.

BOTH 00Z MWW3 AND 12Z ECMWF WAVE MDL SIG WV HGTS HAVE BEEN IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LATEST W ATLC SIG WV HGT OBS OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL HRS. HOWEVER MWW3 APPEARS TO HAVE MUCH BETTER HANDLE
WITH SWELL ASSOCICATED WITH HURCN EDOUARD OVER NEXT FEW DAYS.
WILL BE USE 00Z MWW3 THRU TUE NGT BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO A 3:1
ECMWF WAVE MDL TO MWW3 BLEND AS PREFER HIGHER ECMWF SIG WV HGTS
IN STRONG E TO NE WINDS AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...BY LATE THU 00Z ESTOFS
ALREADY BEGINS TO INDICATE SURGE ONE HALF TO ONE FT ALONG SE
COAST WHEREAS 00Z ETSS IS CLOSE TO ZERO. ESTOFS BUILDS SURGE
OVER ONE FT FRI AND FRI NGT WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE.

.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.NT1 NEW ENGLAND WATERS...
     NONE.

.NT2 MID ATLC WATERS...
     NONE.

$$

.FORECASTER CLARK. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.


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