Marine Interpretation Message
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000
AGNT40 KWNM 280152
MIMATN

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N ATLANTIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
952 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 50W FROM 30N TO 50N.

ASIDE FROM CRISTOBAL...NO SIG CHANGES EXPECTED IN THE UPCOMING
FCST. WILL AWAIT FOR 03Z ADVISORY FROM NHC AND MAKE APPROPRIATE
CHANGES TO TRACK AND INTENSITY OF CRISTOBAL...IF ANY...AT THAT
TIME.

SEAS...WNA VERSION OF WWIII WITHIN A FT OR TWO OF CURRENT OBS.

-----------------------------------------------------------------
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

SUMMARY...HURRICANE CRISTOBAL LOCATED NEAR 31.8N 72.2W AT 11 AM
EDT WAS MOVING N AT 10 KT. CRISTOBAL WILL MOVE N TO 34.5N 69.2W
BY 2 AM THU...TO 37.4N 63.8W BY 2 PM THU...TURN NE TO 41.0N 56.0W
BY 2 AM FRI...THEN ACCELERATE OFF TO THE NE LATER FRI. SEE LATEST
NHC ADVISORY ON HURCN CRISTOBAL. OTHERWISE...A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE SE OVER THE NT1 AND NRN NT2 WTRS TONIGHT INTO THU. A HI PRES
RDG WILL BUILD SE INTO THE AREA THU NITE AND FRI...EXPAND ACROSS
THE WTRS FRI NITE AND SAT...DRIFT E SAT NITE INTO SUN NITE...THEN
PERSIST OVER THE NT2 WTRS MON AND MON NITE. ANOTHER COLD FNT WILL
MOVE E AND APRCH THE NEW ENG CST SUN NITE...THEN DRIFT E OVER THE
NT1 WTRS MON AND MON NITE.

MODELS...THE 12Z MED RNG MDLS ARE IN GUD OVERALL AGREEMNT THRU
THE FCST PRD...WITH THE 12Z GFS/UKMET CLOSEST TO THE LATEST NHC
OFCL TRACK FCST. WILL BE USING THE 12Z GFS FOR THE WIND GRIDS
BECAUSE IT HAS STG SUPPORT FROM THE 12Z ECMWF/UKMET MDLS. AM NOT
PLANNING TO MAKE ANY SIGNIF CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FCST TREND.

.SEAS...18Z RP1 SEA STATE ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE SEA HTS ARE
GENERALLY WITHIN A FOOT OR SO OF THE 12Z MULTIGRID WW3 MDL
GUIDANCE. WILL USE THE WNA VERSION OF THE 12Z MWW3 FOR THE WAVE
HT GRIDS...SINCE IT HAS BEEN DOING A GUD JOB WITH THE SEA HTS ASCD
WITH HURCN CRISTOBAL.

.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...ESTOFS INDICATES A SURGE IN
THE 1 TO 2 FT RNG ALONG THE CAROLINA CST TODAY...WHICH GRADU
DIMINISHES TONIGHT. ETSS SHOWS A SURGE OF LESS THAN 1 FT.


.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.NT1 NEW ENGLAND WATERS...
     NONE.

.NT2 MID ATLC WATERS...
.ANZ910...EAST OF THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL AND SOUTH OF 39N...
     TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT INTO THU.
.ANZ925...OUTER WATERS FROM BALTIMORE CANYON TO HATTERAS CANYON...
     TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT.
.ANZ930...OUTER WATERS FROM HATTERAS CANYON TO CAPE FEAR...
     HURRICANE TONIGHT.

$$

.FORECASTER ACHORN/SCOVIL. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.



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