Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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AGNT40 KWNM 281341
MIMATN

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N ATLANTIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
841 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 50W FROM 30N TO 50N.


AT 12Z 992 MB LOW WAS LOCATED ALONG THE SRN COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA AND
IS MOVING NE AT 10 KT. TRPL PNT LOW IS LOC ALONG THE NE COAST OF
NOVA SCOTIA AND IS MVNG INTO THE GF OF ST LWRNC. COLD FRONT
EXTENDS FM THIS TRPL PNT LOW SSW TO 35N 66W TO 31N74W. WINDS CONT
TO SLOWLY DMNSH OVR THE GULF OF MAINE BUT AT 12Z...WINDS AT MISM1
WERE STILL SUSTAINED AT 35 KT. BY THE INITIAL FORECAST TIME...BLV
GALES MAY STILL BE NIPPING AT THE EXTREME NE CRNR OF THE GULF OF
MAINE SO WILL BE STARTING TODAY WITH GALE WARNINGS...BUT OTW NO
WARNINGS TODAY ELSEWHERE WITH MOD N TO NW FLOW.

A REMARKABLE AND EXTREME INCREASE IS OCCURING IN SOME LOCATIONS ALONG
THE MAINE COAST. BUOY 44032 SEAS JUMPED FM 6 FT AT 5 SEC TO 15 FT
AT 11 SEC PERIOD BTWN 11Z AND 12Z. THE WAVEWATCH SHORT RANGE FCST
LOOKS GOOD...EXCEPT IMMED OFF THE MAINE COAST WHERE SEAS ARE 3 TO
5 FT ABV THE WV MODEL.

OTW...WILL MAKE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE FCST. AFT THE 12Z MODELS
ARE IN...MAY HV TO MAKE SIG CHANGES TO FCST FOR SUN MN TO REFLECT
MORE ALONG THE ECMWF/UKMET FCST.


-----------------------------------------------------------------
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AT 1 AM EST STG LOW PRES WAS NR 43N 67W AND MOVG SLOWLY OFF TO
THE NE AND WL PASS E OF THE OFFSHR IN THE NEXT SVRL HRS. GFS/GEM
ARE WKR WITH THE LOW PRES WHILE UKMET IS ABT 4 MB DEEPER AND ECMWF
IS ABT 2 MB DEEPER. LATEST SFC ANALY HAS AN 988 MB FAVORING THE
GFS. ALL OF THE MDLS ARE SMLR WITH WEAKENING THE LOW PRES QUICKLY
TDA AS IT CONTS OFF TO THE NE THRU TNGT. MDLS LOOK SMLR OVERALL IN
THE SHORT TERM AND PLAN TO CONT TO FAVOR THE GFS 30M WINDS THRU
TNGT AS A HIGH PRES RDG MOVS TO THE COASTLN AND MOVS OFFSHR LATER
TNGT. ON THU AND THU NGT ANOTHER DVLPG LOW PRES AND CD FNT WL
QUICKLY APPROACH THE WTRS. GFS/UKMET CONT TO TRACK DVLPG LOW ACRS
THE NRN NEW ENGLAND OFFSHR WTRS WITH THE GEM AND ECMWF FURTHER N
WITH THEIR TRACKS COMPARED TO 12Z GUID. PLAN TO CONT TO FAVOR THE
GFS AND USE 30M WINDS AS STG CAA OCCURS FRI AFTN THRU SAT NGT.
HIGH PRES MOVS E ACRS THE OFFSHR WTRS SUN AND PASSES E OF THE AREA
SUN NGT. ANOTHER STGR DVLPG LOW WITH STG CD FNT APPROACHES FM THE
W LATE SUN NGT INTO MON. THERE ARE SOME DIFFS BETWEEN THE MDLS.
THE UKMET WHICH WAS QUICKER MOVG THE LOW PRES E OVR THE NRN MID
ATLC WTRS HAS SLOWED SOMEWHAT COMPARED TO 12Z. THE GFS WHICH
USUALLY SEEMS TOO FAST WITH MOVG LOW PRES INTO THE WTRS HAS ALSO
SLOWED AND IS WELL INLAND OVR OH/KY BY EARLY MON. THE 00Z ECMWF IS
SOMEWHAT FASTER THAN 12Z AND IS CLOSER TO THE UKMET WITH MOVG LOW
PRES E OVR THE WTRS. PLAN TO USE THE GFS ALTHO WL BE A BIT QUICKER
WITH GALES LATER SUN NGT INTO EARLY MON. THIS WL BE CONSISTENT
WITH EARLIER FCST GRIDS FOR SUN NGT WITH DVLPG GALES OVR THE MID
ATLC WTRS ALTHO NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS EARLIER.

.SEAS...AT 06Z THE 00Z ECMWF CONTS TO BE HIGHER THAN 00Z MULTIGRID
WWIII...ALTHO DIFFS BECOM LESS BY EARLY TDA. WL LN MORE TOWARDS
THE ECMWF INIT...THEN USE A 50/50 BLEND OF WWIII/ECMWF LATER THIS
AFTN THRU FRI INTO SAT NGT. THE WWIII/ECMWF WAM LOOK OK INTO SUN
NGT...ALTHO BY LATE SUN NGT ECMWF IS NOTICEABLY HIGHER. WL GO MORE
TOWARDS THE ECMWF WAM TOWARDS THIS PD OF TIME.

.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...THE 00Z ESTOFS AND ETSS
FCST POSITIVE SURGE NOW ACRS THE SW GULF OF MAINE TO CONT TO DMNSH
IN A SMLR FASHION THRU EARLY TDA. THE STG NWLY GRAD FCST TO DVLP
FRI INTO SAT CONTS TO SHOW A MR SIG NEGATIVE SURGE TO DVLP FM THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY TO LONG ISLD SOUND THAN FCST ETSS. GFS IS FAVORED
FOR THIS TIME PD.


.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.NT1 NEW ENGLAND WATERS...
.ANZ800...GULF OF MAINE...
     GALE TODAY.
     GALE POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT.
.ANZ805...GEORGES BANK WEST OF 68W...
     GALE POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT.
.ANZ900...GEORGES BANK EAST OF 68W...
     GALE POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT.
.ANZ810...SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND...
     GALE POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT.
.ANZ815...SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND...
     GALE POSSIBLE FRI INTO SAT.

.NT2 MID ATLC WATERS...
.ANZ820...HUDSON CANYON TO BALTIMORE CANYON...
     GALE POSSIBLE FRI INTO SAT.
.ANZ915...HUDSON CANYON TO THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL...
     GALE POSSIBLE FRI INTO SAT NIGHT.
.ANZ920...BALTIMORE CANYON TO THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL...
     GALE POSSIBLE FRI INTO SAT NIGHT.
.ANZ905...THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL TO THE HAGUE LINE...
     GALE POSSIBLE FRI INTO SAT NIGHT.
.ANZ910...EAST OF THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL AND SOUTH OF 39N...
     GALE POSSIBLE FRI INTO SAT NIGHT.
.ANZ825...INNER WATERS FROM BALTIMORE CANYON TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT...
     GALE POSSIBLE FRI INTO SAT.
.ANZ828...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE CHARLES LIGHT TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT...
     GALE POSSIBLE FRI INTO FRI NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT.
.ANZ925...OUTER WATERS FROM BALTIMORE CANYON TO HATTERAS CANYON...
     GALE POSSIBLE FRI INTO SAT.
     GALE POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT.
.ANZ830...INNER WATERS FROM CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT TO CAPE HATTERAS...
     GALE POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT.
.ANZ833...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE HATTERAS TO CAPE FEAR...
     GALE POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT.
.ANZ930...OUTER WATERS FROM HATTERAS CANYON TO CAPE FEAR...
     GALE POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT.
.ANZ835...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE FEAR TO 31N...
     GALE POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT.

$$

.FORECASTER PROSISE/ROWLAND. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.


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