Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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000
AGNT40 KWNM 080111
MIMATN

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N ATLANTIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
811 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 50W FROM 30N TO 50N.

PER IT CLASSIC SIGNATURE ON CURRENT WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY...THE LOW PRES CENTER NR 34N 75W CONTS TO STRENGTHEN. AT
00Z BUOY 41025 HAD A PK GUST TO 56 KT AND AT 23Z SHIP WDB54 AT
33.6N 76.2W HAD 350/60 KT. PER THESE OBS BELIEVE HURRICANE FORCE
WINDS ARE LKLY PRESENT IN THE VCNTY OF THE GULF STREAM NR THESE
OBS. MAX ASCD SEAS ARE LKLY IN THE MID TO UPPPER 20S IN THE VCNTY
OF THE GULF STREAM.

OVER THE SHORT TERM...THE LATEST MDLS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGRMT IN
RGRDS TO THE FCST TRACK OF THE STRONG LOW WITH IT MOVG NE TO JUST
E OF THE CNTRL NT2 WTRS LATE TONITE...PASS SE OF GEORGES BANK
MON...THEN MOVE OFF TO THE NE MON NITE. IN RGRDS TO THE ASCD FCST
GRADIENTS WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE 18Z GFS RMNG CONSISTENT...WL
CONT TO USE THE PREVLY POPULATED 12Z GFS 30M BL WINDS WITH JUST SM
MINOR ADDITIONAL EDITS PER THE 18Z GFS/12Z ECMWF.

THEN QUICKLY IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM...BY LATE MON NITE THE
LATEST MDLS ARE IN RSNBL AGRMT THAT ANOTHER DVLPG SFC LOW AND
STRONG COLD FRONT WL MOV OFSHR INTO THE NT2 WTRS...PASS SE OF
GEORGES BANK TUE...THEN MOV OFF TO THE NE TUE NITE. AGAIN WITH THE
18Z GFS RMNG CONSISTENT...WL CONT WITH THE PREVLY USED 12Z GFS 30M
BL WINDS WITH SM MINOR ADDITIONAL EDITS.

IN THE LONG RANGE...WHL THE LATEST GLOBAL MDLS GNRLY AGREE THAT A
BROAD UPR L/W TROF WL TRANSLATE SLOWLY E ACRS THE ERN CONUSE WED
INTO FRI NITE...THEY HV SM SIG DIFFERENCES IN HOW THE ASCD SFC
PATTERN WL PLAY OUT. IN GNRL THE GLOBAL MDLS AGREE THAT A MOD TO
STRONG WLY GRADIENT WL PERSIST ACRS THE NT2 WTRS...BUT BY FCSTG
DIFFERENT TRACKS FOR THE ASCD SFC LOWS MOVG OFSHR THEY DIFFER IN
ITS FCST LOCATION. LATE TUE NITE/WED BY FCSTG A MR NRLY TRACK FOR
A SFC LOW CROSSING THE NT1 WTRS THE 18Z/12Z GFS SPREAD GALES INTO
THE SRN NT1 WTRS. WITH THE 12Z UKMET/ECMWF FCSTG A MR SLY TRACK HV
LOW FCST CONFIDENCE IN THE PREVLY FCSTD GALES. SO FOR NOW WL CONT
TO USE THE PREV 12Z GFS BL WINDS...BUT WL MAKE SM AT TIMEA SIG
EDITS IN DEFERENCE TO MAINLY THE 12Z ECMWF THRU THE LONG RANGE
WHICH WL RESULT IN SIG LONG RANGE CHNGS IN THE NEXT OFSHR FCST
PACKAGE.



-----------------------------------------------------------------
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

SUMMARY...12Z NCEP SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A DVLPG LOW CNTRD JUST S OF
THE NT2 AREA NEAR 30N78W...WHICH IS FCST TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY
OVER THE NXT 24 HOURS INTO A HURCN FORCE LOW IN THE SRN NT2 WTRS.
A WARM FRONT EXTNDS E FROM THE LOW ACROSS THE FAR SRN PART OF THE
NT2 AREA...THEN BENDS NE INTO THE BERMUDA AREA. THE ANALYSIS ALSO
SHOWS A WEAK HI PRES RIDGE OVER THE NT1 AND NRN NT2 WTRS...AND A
NRN STREAM LOW PROGRESSING INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY
WHILE PULLING A COLD FRONT SE TOWARDS THE MAINE COAST. LATEST
AVAIL ASCAT HI-RES PASSES FROM THIS MORNING SHOW AN AREA OF 35 TO
45 KT WINDS IN N TO NW FLOW OVER THE SW PART OF THE NT2 AREA...WITH
SWATHS OF 25 TO 35 KT WINDS AROUND THE DVLPG LOW AND OVER THE
CNTRL AND SRN NT2 WTRS. LIGHTNING DENSITY PRODUCT DATA AT 1900Z
SHOWS A LINE OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS AHEAD OF THE LOW AND
ALONG THE ERN EDGE OF THE OUTER ZONES OF THE SRN NT2 WTRS...WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE INNER AND OUTER SRN ZONES OF THE NT2
AREA.

MODELS...THE 12Z MED RANGE MDLS ARE IN VRY GUD OVERALL AGREEMNT
ACROSS THE OFHSR WTRS THRU THE FCST PRD...EXCEPT THEY VARY
SOMEWHAT REGARDING THE MAX INTENSITY OF THE RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING
LOW...AND THERE ARE SOME MINOR TIMING DIFFS OVER THE WED NITE THRU
FRI NITE TIMEFRAME. THE GFS HAS SHOWN VRY GUD RUN TO RUN
CONTINUITY AND THE 12Z GFS HAS STRONG SUPPORT FROM THE LATEST WPC
MED RANGE FCSTR GUIDANCE AND GEM/UKMET SOLNS. THE 12Z GFS 30M SOLN
SEEMS TO BE DOING THE BEST JOB OF REFLECTING WHAT IS EXPCTD TO BE
VRY STRONG N TO NW FLOW OVER THE GULF STREAM ASSOCD WITH THE HURCN
FORCE LOW...SO IT WILL BE USED TO POPULATE THE WIND GRIDS THRU
THE ENTIRE FCST PRD. AM NOT PLANNING TO MAKE ANY SIGNIF CHANGES TO
THE CURRENT FCST TREND.

SEAS...THE 12Z ECMWF WAM BOTH INITIALIZED WELL OVER THE OFSHR
WTRS VERSUS THE BUOY OBS...WHILE THE 12Z WAVEWATCH III MDL UNDER
INITIALIZED BY 3 OR 4 FT IN THE STRONGER N TO NE FLOW OFF THE SE
COAST. ALSO THE 12Z ECMWF WAM BUILDS UP THE SEA HTS MORE QUICKLY
THAN THE 12Z WAVEWATCH III MDL DURING THE FCST PRD...SO THE MORE
ROBUST 12Z ECMWF WAM WILL BE USED FOR THE SEA HT GRIDS.

.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...ESTOFS AND ETSS STILL HAVE A
NEGATIVE SURGE OF 2 TO 2.5 FT NEAR THE SE COAST INTO TONIGHT...WITH
A POSITIVE SURGE OF 1.5 TO 2.5 FT NEAR THE MID ATLC AND NEW
ENGLAND COASTS FOR THIS EVNG INTO EARLY MON. ALTHO THE MDLS LOOK
REASONABLE IT IS POSSIBLE THEY COULD END UP BEING UNDERDONE NEAR
THE SE COAST.


.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.NT1 NEW ENGLAND WATERS...
.ANZ800...GULF OF MAINE...
     GALE TONIGHT.
     STORM MON.
     GALE MON NIGHT.
.ANZ805...GEORGES BANK WEST OF 68W...
     STORM TONIGHT INTO MON.
     GALE MON NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT INTO WED.
.ANZ900...GEORGES BANK EAST OF 68W...
     STORM TONIGHT INTO MON NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE WED.
.ANZ810...SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND...
     STORM TONIGHT INTO MON.
     GALE POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT INTO WED.
.ANZ815...SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND...
     GALE TONIGHT.
     STORM MON.
     GALE POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT.

.NT2 MID ATLC WATERS...
.ANZ820...HUDSON CANYON TO BALTIMORE CANYON...
     GALE TONIGHT INTO MON.
     GALE POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE THU NIGHT.
.ANZ915...HUDSON CANYON TO THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL...
     STORM TONIGHT INTO MON.
     GALE POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT INTO WED.
     GALE POSSIBLE THU INTO THU NIGHT.
.ANZ920...BALTIMORE CANYON TO THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL...
     STORM TONIGHT INTO MON.
     GALE TUE.
     GALE POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT INTO WED.
     GALE POSSIBLE THU INTO THU NIGHT.
.ANZ905...THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL TO THE HAGUE LINE...
     STORM TONIGHT INTO MON NIGHT.
     GALE TUE.
     GALE POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT INTO WED.
     GALE POSSIBLE FRI.
.ANZ910...EAST OF THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL AND SOUTH OF 39N...
     STORM TONIGHT.
     GALE MON INTO MON NIGHT.
     STORM TUE.
     GALE POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT INTO WED.
     GALE POSSIBLE THU INTO THU NIGHT.
.ANZ825...INNER WATERS FROM BALTIMORE CANYON TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT...
     STORM TONIGHT.
     GALE MON.
     GALE POSSIBLE THU NIGHT.
.ANZ828...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE CHARLES LIGHT TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT...
     HURRICANE FORCE TONIGHT.
     GALE MON.
.ANZ925...OUTER WATERS FROM BALTIMORE CANYON TO HATTERAS CANYON...
     HURRICANE FORCE TONIGHT INTO MON.
     GALE MON NIGHT INTO TUE.
     GALE POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT.
.ANZ830...INNER WATERS FROM CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT TO CAPE HATTERAS...
     HURRICANE FORCE TONIGHT.
     GALE MON.
     GALE TUE.
     GALE POSSIBLE WED INTO WED NIGHT.
.ANZ833...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE HATTERAS TO CAPE FEAR...
     HURRICANE FORCE TONIGHT.
     GALE MON INTO TUE.
     GALE POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT INTO WED NIGHT.
.ANZ930...OUTER WATERS FROM HATTERAS CANYON TO CAPE FEAR...
     HURRICANE FORCE TONIGHT.
     STORM MON.
     GALE MON NIGHT INTO TUE.
     GALE POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT INTO THU.
.ANZ835...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE FEAR TO 31N...
     HURRICANE FORCE TONIGHT.
     GALE MON NIGHT INTO TUE.
     GALE POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT INTO THU.
.ANZ935...OUTER WATERS FROM CAPE FEAR TO 31N...
     HURRICANE FORCE TONIGHT.
     GALE MON INTO TUE.
     GALE POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT INTO THU.

$$

.FORECASTER VUKITS/SCOVIL. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.


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