Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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000
AGNT40 KWNM 261900
MIMATN

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N ATLANTIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
200 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 50W FROM 30N TO 50N.

OVER THE SHORT TERM...THE NEW 12Z MDLS GNRLY REMAIN CONSISTENT
IN FCSTG THE DVLPG SFC LOW NOW JUST OFF THE MID ATLC COAST TO
CONT INTENSIFYING WHL TRACKING NNE TO THE S OF LONG ISLD BY EARLY
THIS EVENING...PASSING NE ACRS THE NT1 WTRS TONITE...THEN MOVG OFF
TO THE NE THU. THEREFORE THE FCST TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT A
SIG PROBLEM AND THE 12Z NAM/GFS TRACKS LOOK REPRESENTATIVE. THE
BIGGER FCST PROBLEM WL THE FCST GRADIENTS ASCD WITH THIS LOW. THE
12Z MDLS ARE BETTER BUT STIL HV NOT INITIALIZED THIS LOW DEEP
ENUF. PREVLY THOUGHT THAT THE 06Z GFS WAS TOO SLOW TO INTENSIFY
THIS LOW AND NOW THE 12Z GFS AND GFSP HAVE INITIALIZED BETTER AND
DO FCST A MR RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING LOW AS IT PASSES NE ACRS THE NRN
OFSHR WTRS TONITE...WHICH IS VERY SMLR TO THE 12Z NAM. THE 12Z
UKMET WHICH HAS BEEN DOING THE BEST JOB FCSTG THE INTENSIFICATION
OF THIS LOW NOW JUST FCSTS SLIGHTLY MR RAPID DEEPENING THAN THE
12Z GFS. THE 12Z GLOBAL GEM AND 12Z ECMWF BOTH LOOK TOO WEAK AND
WL BE DISREGARDED. THEREFORE PLAN ON POPULATING OUR IMMED SHORT
TERM FCST WIND GRIDS WITH THE STRONGER 12Z GFS 30M BL WINDS WHICH
WL RESULT IN LIMITING THE PREVLY FCSTD STORM WRNGS TO ZONES ANZ815
AND ANZ800 EARLY TONITE...WITH NO APPRECIABLE TIMING AND/OR AREAL
COVERAGE CHNGS TO THE OTHER PREVLY FCSTD ASCD GALE WRNGS...WHICH
ARE STIL FCST TO END ACRS THE ERN MOST NT1 AND NE MOST NT2 WTRS
EARLY THU. SO OVERALL NO MAJOR CHNG WL BE MADE TO THE PREV OFSHR
FCSTS RGRDG THIS SYSTEM.

OTHERWISE IN THE SHORT TERM THE 12Z MDLS IN RESPONSE TO AN UPR
S/W TROF ROTATING THRU THE BASE OF THE UPR L/W TROF AS ITS FCST
TO MOV OFSHR TO VARYING DEGREES FCST A SCNDRY COLD FRONT AND ASCD
SFC LOW TO DVLP AND RACE ACRS THE NT2 WTRS THU INTO THU NITE. THO
THE 12Z MDLS DIFFER IN RGRDS TO HOW FAST THIS SFC LOW WL
INTENSIFY...THEY FCST A SMLRLY STRONG ASCD WNWLY GRADIENT TO DVLP
IN ITS WAKE ACRS THE NT2 WTRS. BASED ON THE MOD STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND NEGATIVE STATIC STABILITY FCST TO DVLP IN THIS
GRADIENT ACRS WARM WTRS...WL FAVOR THE SLIGHTLY STRONGER 12Z
GFS/GFSP SOLUTIONS. THEREFORE DUE TO THE CAA AND LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY EXPECTED...WL CONT TO POPULATE WITH THE STRONGER 12Z
GFS 30M BL WINDS FOR THU/THU NITE. AS A RESULT WL NOW FCST
MARGINAL GALES TO DVLP ACRS THE SRN NT2 WTRS THU INTO EARLY THU
NITE...WHICH SHULD MAINLY BE CONFINED TO THE NT2 WTRS FM THE GULF
STREAM EWD...BEYOND THE NRBY CSTL WTR DOMAINS. SO THEN BY LATE FRI
INTO FRI NITE AS THE MDLS ALL FCST HIGH PRES TO BLD IN FM THE W
AND REACH THE COAST...IT WL JUST BE A MATTER OF HOW FAST TO FCST
CONDS TO DMNSH AND WL JUST CONT TO POPULATE WITH THE 12Z GFS 30M
BL WINDS THRU THEN.

IN THE LONG RANGE...AS THE 12Z MDLS RMN IN GOOD AGRMT IN FCSTG
THE HIGH AND ITS ASCD RIDGE TO PASS OFSHR SAT/SAT NITE GNRLY LITE
ASCD CONDS WL CONT. THEN SUN/SUN NITE AS A COLD FRONT APRCHS FM
THE NW THE 12Z GLOBAL MDLS ALL FCST A STRENGTHENING SSWLY GRADIENT
TO DVLP ACRS THE NRN WTRS WITH THE 12Z GFS/GFSP/GEM FCSTG A
STRONGER GRADIENT THAN THE 12Z UKMET/ECMWF. THEN MON/MON NITE THE
12Z GFS/GFSP ARE FASTER IN FCSTG THE COLD FRONT TO MOV OFSHR THAN
THE OTHER 12Z GLOBAL MDLS WHICH IS LKLY TOO FAST AS INDICATED BY
THE 12Z GEFS MEAN. THEREFORE IN THE LONG RANGE PLAN ON POPULATING
WITH A 50/50 BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS 10M/12Z ECMWF BL WINDS FOR LATE
FRI NITE THRU SUN NITE...THEN WL TRANSITION TO ALL 12Z ECMWF FOR
MON/MON NITE.

SEAS...OVER THE 12Z WAVEWATCH III FCST SEAS LOOK REPRESENTATIVE
THRUT THE SHORT TERM AND THEN EARLY INTO THE LONG RANGE...THO
LIKLY SMWHT TOO LOW TONITE INTO THU ACRS THE NRN WTRS. THEREFORE
WL LKLY USE A 50/50 BLEND OF THE 12Z WAVEWATCH III AND 12Z ECMWF
FOR TONITE THRU SUN NITE...THEN TRANSITION TO ALL 12Z ECMWF WAM
FOR MON/MON NITE.

.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...AS THE DVLPG LOW TRACKS NE
ACRS THE NT1 WTRS TONITE...THE 12Z ESTOFS CONTS TO FCST A
SLIGHTLY MR SIG SURGE FM LONG ISLAND SOUND TO UP THE SRN NEW ENGLD
COAST VS THE 12Z ETSS WHICH LOOKS RSNBL.

.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.NT1 NEW ENGLAND WATERS...
.ANZ800...GULF OF MAINE...
     STORM TONIGHT.
     GALE THU.
.ANZ805...GEORGES BANK WEST OF 68W...
     GALE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
.ANZ900...GEORGES BANK EAST OF 68W...
     GALE TONIGHT INTO THU.
.ANZ810...SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND...
     GALE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
.ANZ815...SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND...
     GALE TODAY.
     STORM TONIGHT.

.NT2 MID ATLC WATERS...
.ANZ820...HUDSON CANYON TO BALTIMORE CANYON...
     GALE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
.ANZ915...HUDSON CANYON TO THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL...
     GALE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
.ANZ920...BALTIMORE CANYON TO THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL...
     GALE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
.ANZ905...THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL TO THE HAGUE LINE...
     GALE TODAY INTO THU.
.ANZ910...EAST OF THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL AND SOUTH OF 39N...
     GALE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
.ANZ825...INNER WATERS FROM BALTIMORE CANYON TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT...
     GALE TODAY.
.ANZ925...OUTER WATERS FROM BALTIMORE CANYON TO HATTERAS CANYON...
     GALE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
.ANZ830...INNER WATERS FROM CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT TO CAPE HATTERAS...
     GALE TODAY.
.ANZ833...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE HATTERAS TO CAPE FEAR...
     GALE TODAY.
     GALE THU.
.ANZ930...OUTER WATERS FROM HATTERAS CANYON TO CAPE FEAR...
     GALE TODAY INTO THU NIGHT.
.ANZ835...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE FEAR TO 31N...
     GALE THU.
.ANZ935...OUTER WATERS FROM CAPE FEAR TO 31N...
     GALE TODAY.
     GALE THU.

$$

.FORECASTER VUKITS. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.



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