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000
AGNT40 KWNM 201936
MIMATN

Marine Weather Discussion for N Atlantic Ocean
NWS Ocean Prediction Center Washington DC
336 PM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017

.FORECAST DISCUSSION...Major features/winds/seas/significant
.weather for the North Atlantic Ocean W of 50W from 30N to 50N.

Note: Warnings are preliminary, and will be modified based on
the next NHC advisory for Hurricane Jose.

Current Conditions...The 12z ncep surface analysis shows
Tropical Storm Jose centered about 215 nm E of Cape May, with a
stationary front meandering NE towards the Gulf of Maine. The
analysis also indicates a broad low pres trough extending NE to
SW across the southern nt2 waters. Latest available ascat and
ascat hi-res passes from a few hours ago show 35 to 50 kt winds
in zone 920, 35 to 45 kt winds in zone 910, and 25 to 35 kt
winds in zones 905/915/925 of the nt2 area. Lightning density
product data at 1840z shows isolated to scattered tstms over
zones 900 and 905 around the NE part of the nt2 area.

Models/Forecast...The 12z medium range models are not in good
agreement, and have not been showing good run to run consistency.
The medium range models all take Jose on a westward track for
Thu through Sun night, although the 12z gem/gfs move Jose more
quickly than do the 12z ecmwf/ukmet. The 12z gfs has the best
support of the latest NHC forecast track of any of the models for
tonight through Fri night, while the 12z ecmwf has the best
support from the NHC track for Sat through Mon night. So am
planning to use the 12z gfs 10m solution for the wind grids for
tonight through Fri night, then go with the 12z ecmwf for Sat
through the rest of the forecast period.

Seas...The 12z wna wavewatch and 12z ecmwf wam both initialized
a bit low in the vicinity of Hurricane Jose, although the
wavewatch looks pretty close to the max wave height value on our
RA1 analysis now. Will use the 12z wavewatch for the wave height
grids for tonight through Fri night, in order to be consistent
with the preferred 12z gfs for this timeframe. Then will go with
the 12z ecmwf wam for Sat through the rest of the forecast
period since the 12z ecmwf is preferred for that period.

.Extratropical Storm Surge Guidance...Please refer to the latest
NHC advisory and local NWS WFO guidance in reference to any
potential tropical storm surge.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. While the center of Jose is forecast to remain offshore of the
U.S. east coast, the large cyclone is expected to cause some direct
impacts in portions of New England, and a tropical storm warning
is in effect for Cape Cod, Block Island, Martha`s Vineyard, and
Nantucket. Any deviation to the left of the NHC forecast track would
increase the likelihood and magnitude of impacts along the coast
from Long Island to southern New England.

2. Minor to moderate coastal flooding is possible from Delaware to
southern New England during the next several days.  Please see
products issued by local National Weather Service forecast offices.

3. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas, and
much of the U.S. east coast.  These swells are likely to cause
dangerous surf and rip current conditions for the next several days
in these areas.

4. Jose will produce total rainfall accumulations of 1 to 3 inches
are expected over eastern Rhode Island and southeast Massachusetts.
2 to 4 inches are expected in Nantucket and Cape Cod, and 3 to 5
inches in Martha`s Vineyard. This rainfall could cause isolated
flash flooding.

.WARNINGS...Preliminary.

.NT1 New England Waters...
.ANZ805...Georges Bank west of 68W...
     Tropical Storm today into Thursday night.
     Tropical Storm Possible Friday into Friday night.
.ANZ900...Georges Bank east of 68W...
     Tropical Storm today into Thursday night.
     Tropical Storm Possible Friday.
.ANZ810...South of New England...
     Tropical Storm today into Thursday night.
     Tropical Storm Possible Friday into Sunday.
.ANZ815...South of Long Island...
     Tropical Storm today into Thursday night.
     Tropical Storm Possible Friday into Saturday night.

.NT2 Mid-Atlantic Waters...
.ANZ820...Hudson Canyon to Baltimore Canyon...
     Tropical Storm today.
     Tropical Storm Possible Friday night into Saturday.
.ANZ915...Hudson Canyon to the Great South Channel...
     Tropical Storm today into Thursday night.
     Tropical Storm Possible Friday into Sunday.
.ANZ920...Baltimore Canyon to the Great South Channel...
     Tropical Storm today into Thursday night.
     Tropical Storm Possible Friday into Saturday night.
.ANZ905...The Great South Channel to the Hague Line...
     Tropical Storm today into Thursday night.
     Tropical Storm Possible Friday into Saturday.
.ANZ910...East of the Great South Channel and south of 39N...
     Tropical Storm today into Thursday night.
     Tropical Storm Possible Friday into Saturday.
.ANZ930...Outer Waters from Hatteras Canyon to Cape Fear...
     Tropical Storm Possible Sunday night.
.ANZ935...Outer Waters from Cape Fear to 31N...
     Tropical Storm Possible Sunday.
     Hurricane Possible Sunday night.

$$

.Forecaster Scovil. Ocean Prediction Center.



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