Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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AGNT40 KWNM 290702
MIMATN

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N ATLANTIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
302 AM EDT THU SEP 29 2016

.FORECAST DISCUSSION...MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 50W FROM 30N TO 50N.

OVER THE SHORT TERM...AN EARLIER 0153Z HI RESOLUTION ASCAT-A
SCATTEROMETER PASS CONFIRMED THAT GALE FORCE WINDS ASCD WITH THE
DVLPG SFC LOW EXITING THE NT2 WTRS WERE PRESENT IN ZONE ANZ905 AS
PREVLY EXPECTED. ALL OF THE NEW 00Z MDLS FCST THIS SFC LOW AND ITS
ASCD GALE FORCE WINDS TO BE WELL E OF THE OFSHR WTRS BY THE START
TO THE TODAY FCST PERIOD. OTHERWISE THE 00Z MDLS AGREE THAT THE
MAIN SHORT TERM WEATHER FEATURE WL BE THE ENELY GRADIENT ACRS THE
NT1 AND NRN NT2 WTRS BETWEEN A STNRY FRONT FCST TO DRIFT N TONITE
INTO FRI NITE AS A WARM FRONT ACRS THE NRN NT2 WTRS AND STRONG
HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FM THE N. SMLR TO THEIR PREV RESPECTIVE
RUNS...THE 00Z GFS/NAM/12Z GEM REMAIN CONSISTENT IN FCSTG GALE
FORCE BL WINDS TO DVLP IN THIS ENE GRADIENT BY TONITE INTO FRI.
WITH THE USUALLY CONSERVATIVE 00Z UKMET/ECMWF FCSTG SOLID 25-30 KT
BL WINDS IN THIS GRADIENT ALSO...HV MOD TO HI FCST CONFIDENCE IN
THE PREVLY FCSTD GALE WRNGS AND AS A RESULT WL KEEP THEM IN PLACE.
THEREFORE SMLR TO THE PREV OFSHR FCST PACKAGE...WL POPULATE OUR
FCST WIND GRIDS WITH THE 00Z GFS 10M BL WINDS...WITH SM ADDITIONAL
MINOR EDITS IN DEFERENCE TO THE 00Z NAM/GEM...FOR TODAY THRU FRI
NITE. SO AS A RESULT ANTICIPATE MAKING ONLY MINOR SHORT TERM CHNGS
TO THE PREV OFSHR FCSTS.

IN THE LONG RANGE...TO VARYING DEGREES THE 00Z MDLS ALL FCST THE
STRONG HIGH PRES N OF THE WTRS TO GRADLY WEAKEN SAT INTO SUN
ALLOWING THE ENELY GRADIENT TO WEAKEN WHILE THE FRONT STALLS ACRS
THE SRN NT2 WTRS. WULD THEN PREFER THE MR CONSISTENT AND NOW
SIMILAR 00Z GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS (WHICH ARE SUPPORTED BY THE 00Z
GEFS MEAN) OF A WEAK SFC LOW TRACKING E ALONG THE FRONT SAT
NITE/SUN...THEN PASSING E OF THE OFSHR WTRS SUN NITE. THEREFORE WL
CONT TO POPULATE WITH THE 00Z GFS 10M BL WINDS INTO SUN NITE. THEN
MON/MON NITE THE DISPARITY BTWN THE 00Z GLOBAL MDLS INCREASES. BY
FCSTG A STRONGER CLOSED UPR LOW/TROF MOVG OFSHR THAN FCST BY THE
00Z GFS...THE 00Z UKMET/ECMWF FCST A SECOND STRONGER FRONTAL LOW
TO PASS ACRS THE NT1 WTRS MON INTO MON NITE WHILE PULLING THE
FRONT BACK S AS A COLD FRONT. SO FOR NOW WITH LOW FCST CONFIDENCE
WL FAVOR THE 00Z UKMET/ECMWF SOLUTION AND WL TRANSITION TO
POPULATING WITH THE 00Z ECMWF BL WINDS ON LATE SUN NITE THRU MON
NITE...TONED DOWN SLIGHTLY IN DEFERENCE TO THE WEAKER 00Z GFS
SOLUTION.

SEAS... THE 00Z WAVEWATCH III AND 00Z ECWMF WAM HV BOTH
INITIALIZED THE SEAS ACRS THE SRN/CNTRL NT2 WTRS VERY WELL...BUT
ACRS THE NT1 AND NRN NT2 WTRS THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER ECMWF WAM IS
BETTER INITIALIZED THAN THE WAVEWATCH III. THEREFORE WL POPULATE
OUR FCST WAVE GRIDS WITH THE 00Z ECMWF WAM FOR TODAY INTO TONITE.
THEN AS THE DIFFERENCES BTWN THE MDLS NARROW WL POPULATE WITH A
50/50 BLEND OF THE 00Z WAVEWATCH III AND 00Z ECMWF WAM LATE TONITE
INTO SUN NITE. THEN SINCE THE 00Z ECMWF SOLUTION WL BCM
FAVORED...WL TRANSITION TO POPULATING WITH ALL 00Z ECMWF WAM FCST
SEAS LATE SUN NITE THRU MON NITE.

.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...IN THE STRONG ENELY
GRADIENT THE 00Z ESTOFS AND ETSS MDLS BOTH FCST SIMILAR SURGES...
IN THE 1.0-1.5 FT RANGE...TO DVLP ALONG THE COAST FROM THE
VIRGINIA CAPES UP TO LONG ISLAND SOUND LATE TODAY INTO EARLY FRI
NITE...WHICH MAY BE SLIGHTLY UNDERDONE.

.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.NT1 NEW ENGLAND WATERS...
.ANZ810...SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND...
     GALE FRI.
.ANZ815...SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND...
     GALE TONIGHT INTO FRI.

.NT2 MID-ATLANTIC WATERS...
.ANZ820...HUDSON CANYON TO BALTIMORE CANYON...
     GALE TONIGHT INTO FRI.

$$

NOTE: ON OCTOBER 06, 2016...THE NWS FTPMAIL SERVICE WILL DISABLE
THE CURRENT EMAIL ADDRESS. THE NEW EMAIL ADDRESS IS LIVE NOW.
PLEASE TRANSITION TO IT AS SOON AS POSSIBLE TO AVOID A SERVICE
DISRUPTION.

NEW EMAIL ADDRESS...NWS.FTPMAIL.OPS@NOAA.GOV
/ALL LOWER CASE LETTERS/

FOR THE SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE...PLEASE GO TO
HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OS/NOTIFICATION/SCN16-37FTPMAIL.HTM
/ALL LOWER CASE LETTERS/

.FORECASTER VUKITS. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.



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