Marine Interpretation Message
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000
AGNT40 KWNM 021347
MIMATN

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N ATLANTIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
847 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 50W FROM 30N TO 50N.

INTENSIFYING LOW WAS NR NOVA SCOTIA THIS MRNG WITH A CD FNT
TRAILING SWD INTO THE ERN NEW ENGLAND AND ERN MID ATLC WTRS. STGST
NW WINDS APR TO BE OVR THE WRN AREAS OF THE NRN MID ATLC INTO THE
NEW ENGLAND WTRS WITH WINDS TO 30 KT. HIGHEST SEAS WERE INADVOF
THE CD FNT WITH SEAS TO 14 FT. BEHIND THE CD FNT WINDS TDA INCRS
TO GALE FORCE LATER THIS MRNG INTO THE AFTN. STGST GALES TO 40 KT
DVLP ALG THE ERN AREAS OF THE NEW ENGLAND AND NRN MID ATLC LATER
THIS AFTN INTO TNGT. STG HIGH RDG BUILDS EWD OVR THE WTRS LATER
THIS AFTN INTO TNGT. MDLS LOOK SMLR WITH TRENDS WITH THE 30M GFS
WINDS BEING USED FOR TDA AND TNGT IN THE CAA. A WM FNT LIFTS NE
OVR THE WTRS TUE NGT INTO WED WITH SWLY GALES DVLPG INADVOF NEXT
CD FNT. MDLS ARE CONSISENTENT AND SMLR WITH NO ADJSTMT TO PREV
GRIDS NEEDED. MDLS ARE NOT IN GREAT AGRMT WITH SVRL LOW PRES CNTRS
THAT DVLP ALG THE CD FNT THAT MOVS S INTO THE MID ATLC WED NGT AND
THU. MDLS DO SEEM AGREE WITH THE LOW PRES MOVG E OVR THE WTRS THU
WITH STG HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FM THE W.

FEW CHANGES WL BE MADE TO PREV FCST GRIDS WHICH LOOK RSNBL THRU
THE FCST PD.

-----------------------------------------------------------------
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

00Z GLOBAL MODELS IN GOOD AGRMT THRU THE FCST PERIOD. WILL
POPULATE WIND GRIDS FROM 00Z GFS THRU THE FCST PERIOD. GFS HAS
GOOD SUPPORT FROM BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE UKMET.

DVLPG LOW PRES MOVING NE OVR NT1/NRN NT2 WATERS...AND IS PUSHING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. LATEST ASCAT PASS SHOWING
WINDS TO 30 KT ACROSS NRN AND CNTRL NT2 WATERS IN THE SE QUAD OF
THE LOW...AS WELL AS IN THE SLY FLOW E OF THE FRONT. MODELS STILL
SHOWING GALES DVLPG ACROSS NRN AND INTO CNTRL NT2 WATERS IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS IN THE SLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT. POPULATED SLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH 10M WINDS FROM THE GFS AS MIXING LESS
LIKELY IN THE COOLER SSTS ACROSS NT1 WATERS. MODELS ALSO CONTINUE
TO SHOW STRONG CCA BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE NT1 AND NRN NT2 WATERS
LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. WILL POPULATE NLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT
FROM THE GFS 30M WINDS DUE TO STRONG CCA. GALES SHUD BE E OF THE
AREA BY TUE MORN.

NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES COAST TUE NIGHT INTO WED.
GFS/ECMWF/UKMET ALL IN DECENT AGRMT WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF
THE FRONT. POPULATED WIND GRIDS WITH 10M WINDS FROM THE GFS IN
THE SLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS STILL PRODUCES GALES OVER
THE NRN AND CNTRL NT2 WATERS...AS WELL AS INTO THE FAR SE PORTION
OF THE SRN NT1 WATERS. TUE NIGHT INTO WED. FRONT PUSHES OFFSHR WED
AND STALLS OVER THE CNTRL NT2 WATERS WED NIGHT INTO THU BEFORE
PUSHING SE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE NT2 WATERS THU NIGHT.
MODELS DO SUGGEST A FRONTAL WAVE TO MOVE QUICKLY NE ALONG THE
FRONT WED NIGHT INTO THU. FOR THE WIND GRIDS...POPULATED WITH 30M
WINDS FROM THE GFS IN THE NLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. WILL
CONTINUE TO HAVE GALES FOR PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL AND SRN NT2
WATERS THU INTO THU NIGHT.

HIGH PRES THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.


.SEAS...WILL POPULATE WAVE GRIDS WITH 50/50 BLEND OF THE ECMWF
WAVE AND THE WNA THRU THE FCST PERIOD. THIS CONTINUES TO BE A GOOD
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE HIGHER ECMWF WAVE AND THE LOWER WNA VALUES
IN THE AREAS OF GALES OVER THE OFFSHR WATERS.


.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.



.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.NT1 NEW ENGLAND WATERS...
.ANZ800...GULF OF MAINE...
     GALE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
.ANZ805...GEORGES BANK WEST OF 68W...
     GALE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
     GALE TUE NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE WED.
.ANZ900...GEORGES BANK EAST OF 68W...
     GALE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE WED.
.ANZ810...SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND...
     GALE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
     GALE TUE NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE WED.
.ANZ815...SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND...
     GALE TODAY.

.NT2 MID ATLC WATERS...
.ANZ820...HUDSON CANYON TO BALTIMORE CANYON...
     GALE TODAY.
.ANZ915...HUDSON CANYON TO THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL...
     GALE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
     GALE TUE NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE WED.
.ANZ920...BALTIMORE CANYON TO THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL...
     GALE TODAY.
     GALE TUE NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE WED INTO THU.
.ANZ905...THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL TO THE HAGUE LINE...
     GALE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
     GALE TUE NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE WED.
.ANZ910...EAST OF THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL AND SOUTH OF 39N...
     GALE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
     GALE TUE NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE WED INTO THU.
.ANZ825...INNER WATERS FROM BALTIMORE CANYON TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT...
     GALE TODAY.
     GALE TUE NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE WED INTO THU.
.ANZ828...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE CHARLES LIGHT TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT...
     GALE TUE NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE WED INTO THU NIGHT.
.ANZ925...OUTER WATERS FROM BALTIMORE CANYON TO HATTERAS CANYON...
     GALE TODAY.
     GALE TUE NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE WED INTO THU NIGHT.
.ANZ830...INNER WATERS FROM CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT TO CAPE HATTERAS...
     GALE POSSIBLE WED INTO THU NIGHT.
.ANZ833...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE HATTERAS TO CAPE FEAR...
     GALE POSSIBLE WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT.
.ANZ930...OUTER WATERS FROM HATTERAS CANYON TO CAPE FEAR...
     GALE POSSIBLE THU INTO THU NIGHT.
.ANZ835...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE FEAR TO 31N...
     GALE POSSIBLE THU NIGHT.
.ANZ935...OUTER WATERS FROM CAPE FEAR TO 31N...
     GALE POSSIBLE THU NIGHT.

$$

.FORECASTER ROWLAND/ACHORN. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.


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