Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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AGPN40 KWNM 271428
MIMPAC

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N PACIFIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
728 AM PDT THU AUG 27 2015

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH PACIFIC N OF 30N AND E OF 150W.

ASCAT FM 07Z INDC GALES W OF THE OFSHR WTRS...IN THE W QUAD OF LOW
PRES NR 44N138W. ASCAT ALSO INDC A WND SHIFT AND INCRS OF WND
INTNSTY OVR THE N PTN OF THE OFSHR WTRS...SHOWING THE LOC OF A WK
FRNTL BNDRY. THE LTST NCEP SFC ANALYS INDC THE FRNT ACRS THE C PTN
OF PZ5 AND FAR NW PZ6. THE CRNT SFC RPRTS AND 06Z GFS MDL WNDS
INDC HAV DCRSD SLGTLY FM THE TIME OF THE ASCAT PASS...WITH WNDS UP
TO 15 KT IN THE OFSHR WTRS. THE 06Z/00Z GFS/NAM/ECWMF/UKMET/GEM
ALL INDC THE SFC LOW WL DRIFT S IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE TRACK OF
THE ASSOC UPR LVL LOW/TROF TDA INTO FRI...AS THE FRNT WKNS TDA
INTO TNGT. THE 06Z GUID HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH FM THE 00Z RUN IN THE
SHORT TERM...SO THE GFS WL RMN THE MDL OF CHOICE OVR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

THE BIGGEST FCST PRBLM CONT TO BE THE HNADLG OF THE MID LVL ENERGY
WITH THE UPR LOW JUST W OF THE AREA. THE GFS CONT TO INDC A SECOND
WK H5 VORT ON THE E SIDE OF THE TROF WL DVLP A SFC LOW...AND TAKE
IT THRU THE OFSHR WTRS LATE FRI INTO SAT. THE GFS DVLPS GALES AHD
OF THE FRNT ON SAT...MAINLY IN THE CHANNELING FLOW BTWN THE FRONT
AND THE COAST. THE REST OF THE 00Z GUID IS WKR WITH THE SFC
LOW...AND THE NAM/UKMET/GEM TAKE THE WK SECOND LOW TO THE SE OF
THE GFS TRACK. ONLY THE 00Z GEM INDC GALES WITH THE LOW...WHICH
ARE MRGNL...AND SEEM A LTL SUSPECT CONSIDERING THE HIGH BIAS OF
THE GEM WNDS. IN COMPARISON...THE GFS IS A BIT OF AN OUTLIER SOLN
WITH THE LOW AND GALES...AND ALHTO NOT COMPLETELY DISCOUNTING THE
PSBLTY...ESP WITH THE CHANNELING AHD OF THE FRNT...CONFDC IS VRY
LOW. HOWEVER...CONFDC IS A LTL HIGHER FOR THE CSTL WTRS...BUT LOC
IS A BIT OF A PRBLM SINCE THE MDLS DO NOT AGREE WELL ON THE TRACK
OF THE SECOND LOW. AS A RESULT...PLANNING ON CONTG WITH PREV
POPULATED GFS SOLN...BUT WL DROP GALES FOR SAT AS SPRT IS VRY WK.
OTRW...NOT PLANNING ON MAJOR CHANGES FOR THE UPDATE PKG.

-----------------------------------------------------------------
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

THE SAT IMG INDC CLDY AREAS MOSTLY OVR THE NRN WTRS AND PARTS FO
THE CNTRL WTRS THAT ARE ASCCTD WITH A FRNT TO THE W OF THE REGION
WITH A FEW LIGHTNG STRIKES FARTHER W OF THE NRN WTRS. THE RADAR
DOES NOT HV ANY INDC OF TSTMS CELLS OVR THE REGION. AT 06Z LOW
PRES 1009 MB 240 NM W OF NRN WTRS HAS A CLD FRNT THAT LIES OVR THE
FAR WRN PARTS OF THE NRN WTRS. HGH PRES 1020 MB JUST W OF THE SRN
WTRS HAS RIDGE XTNDG NE ACRS THE CNTRL WTRS AND THE S-ERN PARTS OF
THE NRN WTRS WHILE THE OTHER RIDGE XTNDS SE ACRS THE SRN WTRS.
INLAND TROF STRETCHES NW ACRS CA STATE FROM LOW PRES 1008 MB OVR
SRN CA. THE PRES GRDNT IS VERY SLCK AND MAX WINDS ARE 15 KT. THE
LATST ASCAT PASS AT 0610Z HAD NO WINDS ABOVE 15 KT ACRS THE
REGION.

THE GLBL MDLS ARE STILL IN AGRMNT IN THE SHORT TERM ON THE HGH
PRES OVR THE SRN WTRS BUT STILL MNR DIFFS ON THE PATH AND TIMING
OF THE LOW PRES TO THE W OF THE WTRS. MDLS ALSO HV SOME DIFFS OVR
THE LOW PRES PASSING OVR THE NRN WTRS IN THE XTNDD PRD. MOST OF
THE MDLS ARE STILL SUGGSTNG GALES JUST E OF THE REGION BUT IT IS
VERY LIKLEY THAT GALES WIL SPILL OVR INTO THE XTREME ERN PARTS OF
THE FRCST REGION AND SO WILL INCLUDE A SHORT PRD OF GALES IN THE
FRCST WITH LOW CONFDNC. OTHERWISE WILL STAY WITH GFS. IN THE SHORT
TERM HGH PRES CNTR WILL SHIFT INTO THE CNTRL WTRS WHILE THE LOW
PRES WILL SLIGHTLY MOVE SW AND STALL BEFORE TURNING N. THE PRES
GRDNT WILL REMAIN SLCK AND SO NO WNGS UNTIL THE XTNDD PRD WHEN
WILL HV GALES OVR THE ERN PARTS OF THE CNTRL WTRS.

.SEAS...THE SEAS ARE EQUALLY SMALL WITH ONLY 7 FT SEAS AS HGST
OVR THE WRN PARTS OF THE NRN WTRS. ELSEWHERE SEAS RANGE BTWN 3 AND
6 FT. BOTH NWW3 MULTI GRID AND THE ECMWFWV MDLS FIT WELL WITH THE
OBSVD SEAS PATTERN AND HAVE BEEN QUITE CONSSTNT IN THE PREVIOUS
RUNS. WILL CONTINUE THE TRDTION AND STAY WITH ENPWAV.


.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.



.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.PZ5 WASHINGTON/OREGON WATERS...
     NONE.

.PZ6 CALIFORNIA WATERS...
     NONE.

$$

.FORECASTER KELLS/MUSONDA. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.



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