Marine Interpretation Message
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000
AGPN40 KWNM 181401
MIMPAC

Marine Weather Discussion for N Pacific Ocean
NWS Ocean Prediction Center Washington DC
701 AM PDT Wed Oct 18 2017

.FORECAST DISCUSSION...Major features/winds/seas/significant
.weather for the North Pacific N of 30N and E of 150W.

No changes are planned for the morning update. The 06z GFS is in
very good agreement with the previous 00z which is reflected in
the current wind grids. The 12z surface analysis indicates strong
cold front just west of the Washington and Oregon waters with
high pressure ridge across the California waters. The 12z sea
state analysis indicated that overall the observed seas matched
up well with the WaveWatch III and ECMWF WAM, so will also not be
making any changes to wave grids.

-----------------------------------------------------------------
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

The most recent satellite pictures show a cold front moving into
the Washington and Oregon waters. The ASCAT pass from 06Z
indicates gale conditions in advance of the frontal boundary,
while a ridge axis extends over the northern California waters.
The overall forecast pattern will remain very progressive over
the PZ5 and northern PZ6 area, while a stable regime persists
further S. For the most part the 00Z global models are in pretty
good agreement given the progressive pattern. I will populate the
wind grids using primarily the GFS throughout the period. Of the
three main global models the GFS shows the best agreement with
the UKMET, while the ECMWF is the outlier during small portions
of the forecast period. I will edit some of the grids to temper
some of the winds in certain spots, and get rid of gales in
others.

Seas...The WAM and ENP initialized well at 00Z. Given the
differences in wave height forecast, especially in areas of
highest seas, I will populate the wave grids using a 50/50 blend
of the two wave models throughout the forecast period.

.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.

.WARNINGS...Preliminary.

.PZ5 Washington/Oregon Waters...
.PZZ800...Inner Waters from Cape Flattery to Cape Shoalwater...
     Gale today.
     Gale Possible Friday night into Saturday.
.PZZ900...Outer Waters from Cape Flattery to Cape Shoalwater...
     Gale today into tonight.
     Gale Possible Friday night into Saturday.
.PZZ805...Inner Waters from Cape Shoalwater to Cape Lookout...
     Gale today into tonight.
     Gale Possible Friday night into Saturday.
.PZZ905...Outer Waters from Cape Shoalwater to Cape Lookout...
     Gale today.
     Gale Possible Friday night into Saturday.
.PZZ810...Inner Waters from Cape Lookout to Florence OR...
     Gale today into tonight.
     Gale Possible Friday night.
.PZZ910...Outer Waters from Cape Lookout to Florence OR...
     Gale today into tonight.
     Gale Possible Friday night.
.PZZ815...Inner Waters from Florence OR to Point St. George...
     Gale Possible Friday night.
.PZZ915...Outer Waters from Florence OR to Point St. George...
     Gale today into tonight.
     Gale Possible Friday night.

.PZ6 California Waters...
.PZZ920...Outer Waters from Point St. George to Point Arena...
     Gale Possible Friday night.
.PZZ840...Inner Waters from Santa Cruz Island, CA to San Clemente Island, CA...
     Gale Possible Friday night.

$$

.Forecaster Kosier/Shaw. Ocean Prediction Center.


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