Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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000
AGPN40 KWNM 281518
MIMPAC

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N PACIFIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
818 AM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH PACIFIC N OF 30N AND E OF 150W.

THERE IS NO INDC OF CONV CLDS AND THE RADAR DOES NOT HAV ANY
TSTMS CELLS OVR MOST OF THE REGION EXCEPT THE FAR SRN REGION WHERE
SOME LIGHTNG IS SHOWING. HERMAN NOW A TS IS STILL MOVING TWD NW
AND GETTING CLOSER TO THE SRN WTRS BUT STILL WILL NOT BE CLOSE
ENOUGH TO POSE ANY MJR THREAT TO THE FCST WTRS IN THE SHORT TERM
AND THE NHC HAS MORE INFO UNDER TCMEP3. AT 1200Z HGH PRES 1026 MB
W OF THE CNTRL REGION NR NEAR 38N136W HAS A VERY SLACK RIDGE NE
ACRS THE NRN WTRS AND ALSO SE ACRS THE SRN WTRS. LOW PRES 1014 MB
ABOUT 300 NM W OF THE WASH WTRS IS PART OF THE BROAD LOW PRES AREA
THAT SPANS INTO THE GULF OF AK. INLAND LOW PRES OVR AZ HAS A TROF
STRETCHING NW ACRS CAL STATE INTO OREG. THE MAX OBS WINDS ARE 15
KT. THE LAST ASCAT PASS AT 0545Z HAD MAX WINDS OVR THE OREG AND
NRN CAL WTRS AT 20 KT. THE SEAS RANGE BTWN 4 AND 9 FT WITH GST
SEAS OVR THE CNTRL REGION. THE GLB MDLS ARE IN A DECENT AGRMNT OVR
THE SHORT TERM AND SO WILL CONTNE WITH GFS FOR THIS UPDATE. IN THE
SHORT TERM THE LOW PRES W OF THE NRN REGION WILL MOVE NE INTO THE
COAST OF CANADA WHILE THE HGH PRES PRES WILL REMAIN NRLY STNRY W
OF CNTRL REGION. THE PRES GRDNT WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SLOWLY AS
HGH STRENGTHENS BUT WINSD WILL STIL REMAIN BELOW GALE FORCE.

-----------------------------------------------------------------
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

HI RES 0545Z ASCAT PASS RETURNED SWATH OF NLY 17-27 KT FN CAPE
SHOALWATER AREA TO THE CENTRAL CA OUTER WTRS INCLUDING CSTL WTRS N
OF PT ARENA...WITH HIGHEST CONDS NRN CA AND SRN OREGON INNER WTRS.
NEAR THIS TIME A SHIP NR 42N126W RPTD N 28 KT. THESE CONDS ARE
CLOSE TO 00Z GFS 30M WNDS. 06Z NCEP FINAL ANAL SHOWS LTLCHG OVR
AND ADJ TO OFSHR WTRS. THERE IS FNTL WAVE W OF PZ5 AREA NR 46N140W
TRACKING NE TWD A COUPLE OF WK LOWS IN GLF OF AK ASCD WITH AN UPR
LOW. WK ELY WAVE OFF SRN CA HAS SOME CONV CLDS AND AND LTG WITH IT
MAINLY IN CSTL WTRS. THE THE S T.S. HERNAN...JUST DOWNGRADED FM A
HURCN...IS S OF BAJA NR 20N114W HEADING NW WITH A WKNG TREND.

WX PTRN OVR EPAC EXPECTED TO CHANGE LTL OVR FCST PRD WITH HIGH
PRES OVR OR TO THE W AND SW OF PZ5 AREA AND JUST W OF PZ6 AREA
WHILE THERMAL TROF CONTG OVR CA TO SW OREGON. SLO CHANGE EXPECTED
LATE WED INTO FRI AS THE UPR LOW OVR ERN GLF OF AK RETREATS TO W
AND SW ALLOWING UPR RDG OVR WRN STATES TO SW CANADA TO BUILD MORE
WITH ASCD SFC TROF AND RDG TO W TO EXTEND NWD. FOR REASON NOTED
ABV PREFER 00Z GFS 30M WNDS WITH GFS OVERALL IN AGRMT WITH MDL
CONSENSUS AND SPRTD BY WPC MED RNG PROGS OUT TO DAY 5. EARLY IN
FCST WITH EARLY WKNG OF CSTL TROF LOOKING AT MAX WNDS ARND 25 KT
SE OREGON TO NRN CA INNER WTRS WITH A TREND TWD EXPANSION OF AREA
LATER WED INTO FRI NIGHT WHEN STRONGEST WNDS EXPECTED...STILL
SUBGALE UP TO 30 KT NRN CA INNER WTRS N OF PIGEON PT. BY FRI NIGHT
WNDS 20 OR 25 KT EXPECTED MORE WDSPRD WITH NWD BLDG OF SFC TROF
INTO PAC NW STATES FM PT CONCEPTION AREA NWD INCLUDING SOME OF
OUTER OFSHR ZONES.

SEAS ARE HIGHEST OFF NRN CA CLOSE TO CSTL WTRS WITH MAX 8 OR 9 FT
PT ST GEORGE AREA NR BNDRY WITH CSTL WTRS. A SHIP HAS BEEN RPTG
HIGHER CONDS OF 11 TO 12 FT DURING NIGHT IN THIS AREA BUT LOOKS A
BIT HIGH. INITIALLY 00Z ENP WW3 IS CLOSE MATCH TO OBSVD CONDS AND
WILL STAY CLOSE TO ITS GUIDANCE FOR MON INTO MON NIGHT. THEN WILL
TRANSITION TO 00Z ECMWF WAM AS IT DVLPS SLGTLY HIGHER CONDS IN
MUCH OF REMAINDER OF FCST IN THE SLOWLY INCRG NLY FLOW.

.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.


.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.PZ5 WASHINGTON/OREGON WATERS...
     NONE.

.PZ6 CALIFORNIA WATERS...
     NONE.

$$

.FORECASTER MUSONDA/BANCROFT. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.



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