Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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000
AGPN40 KWNM 251451
MIMPAC

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N PACIFIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
751 AM PDT WED MAY 25 2016

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH PACIFIC N OF 30N AND E OF 150W.

MODEL AGREEMENT REMAINS GOOD THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...WITH SOME
QUESTION AS TO THE EXTENT OF THE GALES LATER IN THIS WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...PREVIOUS FORECAST CONTINUES TO FOLLOW THE
LATEST MODEL TRENDS SO WILL NOT MAKE CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE.

-----------------------------------------------------------------
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

00Z GLOBAL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
WILL POPULATE WIND GRIDS WITH 10M WINDS FROM THE 00Z GFS THROUGH
MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION FROM 00Z FRI TO 00Z SUN
WHERE WILL CONTINUE WITH 30M WINDS AS IN PREVIOUS FORECAST. 00Z
GFS HAS GOOD SUPPORT FROM BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE UKMET THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

ONLY A FEW MINOR CHANGES NOTED IN THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE
CONCERNING GALE EVENT ALONG CALIFORNIA LATER THIS WEEK AND INTO
THIS WEEKEND. MODELS STILL SHOWING STRENGTHENING GRADIENT SETTING
UP ALONG THE NRN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST INTO THU...WITH PEAK
INTENSITY STILL IN THE THU NIGHT INTO SAT TIME FRAME. GFS STILL
INDICATING 30M GALES IN THE COASTAL WATERS AND EXTENDING INTO THE
OFFSHORE WATERS FROM NEAR CAPE MENDICINO TO NEAR PIGEON POINT
BEGINNING THU NIGHT AND LASTING INTO SAT. UKMET DOES INDICATE A
FEW 10M GALES THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT...BUT IS IN THE COASTAL
WATERS NR PT ARENA...WHILE THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW 10M WINDS
TO 30 KT IN THE REGION. REASONING STILL THE SAME AS LAST NIGHT IN
HIGHEST CHANCES OF GALES WILL BE IN THE COASTAL WATERS...WITH A
MEDIUM CHANCE OF GALES EXTENDING INTO THE ADJACENT OFFSHORE
WATERS. THERE WAS A SLIGHT CHANGE IN THE BOTH THE TIMING AND THE
AREA OF GALES...WHERE GFS HAD GALES ENDING IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS
LATE SAT INSTEAD OF SUN...WITH THE AREA OF GALES SHIFTING SLIGHTLY
TO THE N OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. BOTH TRENDS ARE REFLECTED IN
THE UPDATED WIND GRIDS. SLOW WEAKENING TREND STILL EXPECTED
TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.

.SEAS...ENP VERSION OF WWIII WITHIN A FT OR TWO OF LATEST SFC OBS.
WILL POPULATE WAVE GRIDS FROM 00Z ENP THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD...WITH SOME MINOR MODIFICATIONS IN THE GALE AREA THU NIGHT
INTO SAT NIGHT...AND UP IN THE NE PORTION OF THE PZ5 WATERS
TONIGHT INTO THU NIGHT.


.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.



.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.PZ5 WASHINGTON/OREGON WATERS...
     NONE.

.PZ6 CALIFORNIA WATERS...
.PZZ820...INNER WATERS FROM POINT ST. GEORGE TO POINT ARENA...
     GALE THU NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE THU NIGHT INTO SAT.
.PZZ825...INNER WATERS FROM POINT ARENA TO PIGEON POINT...
     GALE THU NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE THU NIGHT INTO SAT.
.PZZ830...INNER WATERS FROM PIGEON POINT TO POINT PIEDRAS BLANCAS...
     GALE POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT.

$$

.FORECASTER SOMMERVILLE/ACHORN. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.


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