Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
AGPN40 KWNM 271514
MIMPAC

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N PACIFIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
714 AM PST FRI FEB 27 2015

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH PACIFIC N OF 30N AND E OF 150W.

NO CHANGES IN STORE TO THE MORNING UPDATE OF THE OFSHR FCST PKG.
ONGOING GRIDS AND TEXT PRODUCTS LOOK EXCELLENT.

AM SLIGHTLY CONCERNED ABT POSSIBLE GALES CLIPPING THE FAR NW
PORTION OF THE WASH WTRS THIS AFTN AS LOW PRES MVS S IN THE PZ5
CSTL ZNS. FOR NOW THE STGST GRADIENT STILL LOOKS TO BE JUST W OF
THE OUTER WTRS OR RIGHT ALONG THE BORDER. WILL LET THE FCST RIDE
FOR NOW BUT MAY NEED TO ADD GALE HEADLINES FOR FAR W PORTIONS OF
ZNS 900 AND 905 AS 12Z GUID ARRIVES...OR AS POSSIBLY A WELL
PLACED ASCAT AND/OR RAPIDSCAT PASS OCCURS ACRS THE AREA OF
CONCERN.

-----------------------------------------------------------------
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

THE RAPID SCAT PASS FROM 01Z SHOWS GALE WINDS OVR INNER OFFSHORE
WATERS W OF PT REYES. UNFORTUNATLEY THE ASCAT PASS FROM 06Z MISSES
THE AREA OF HIGHEST WINDS. THE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
OVERNIGHT AND BE SUB GALE BY MORNING...IF IT ISNT SO ALREADY. THE
INITIAL OUTPUT FROM THE ECMWF WAVE GUID IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN
ENP OVR THIS REGION...AND THIS SEEMS MORE REASONABLE GIVEN CURRENT
OBS AND 30-35 WINDS. OVR THE NEXT 24 HRS EXPECT A STRONG N/S RIDGE
TO BUILD ALONG 140W AND PERSIST FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 4 DAYS
BEFORE BEGINNING TO BREAK DOWN AS A FRONT WEAKENS THE NRN
PORTION. DURING THE NEXT 3 DAYS A S/WV WILL DIG SE ALONG THE W
CST...WHILE THE ASSOCIATED LOW CENTER MOVES S ALONG THE CST AND
INLAND OVR NRN CA...FURTHER ENHANCING THE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION.
THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
PERIOD....IN PARTICULAR THE GFS/ECMWF. THERE REALLY ISNT A WHOLE
LOT TO CHOOSE FROM HERE. WHEN POP THE WIND GRIDS WILL USE A BLEND
OF 75 PERCENT 30M GFS TO 25 PERCENT ECMWF. GIVEN THE PERSISTANT NW
FLOW DURING THE PERIOD I FAVOR THE SPEED OF THE 30M GFS...ALTHOUGH
BY BLENDING IN THE ECMWF WILL LOWER THE WIND SPEED AND AREAL
OUTPUT OF GALE WINDS EVER SO SLIGHTLY. AFTER 12Z TUE I WILL USE
100 PERCENT 30M GFS AS THE ECMWF BECOMES SLIGHTLY OUT OF PHASE
ACROSS THE NRN AREAS.

SEAS...THE WAVE OUTPUT FORM BOTH THE ENP AND ECMWF WAVE BOTH
APPEAR REASONABLE. WILL USE A 50/50 BLEND OF THE TWO MODELS WHEN
POP THE WAVE GRIDS.

.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A


.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.PZ5 WASHINGTON/OREGON WATERS...
.PZZ815...INNER WATERS FROM FLORENCE OR TO POINT ST. GEORGE...
     GALE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT.

.PZ6 CALIFORNIA WATERS...
.PZZ820...INNER WATERS FROM POINT ST. GEORGE TO POINT ARENA...
     GALE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT.
.PZZ920...OUTER WATERS FROM POINT ST. GEORGE TO POINT ARENA...
     GALE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT.
.PZZ825...INNER WATERS FROM POINT ARENA TO PIGEON POINT...
     GALE POSSIBLE MON NIGHT.
.PZZ925...OUTER WATERS FROM POINT ARENA TO PIGEON POINT...
     GALE SAT NIGHT.

$$

.FORECASTER COLLINS/SHAW. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.