Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS48 KWNS 191002
SWOD48
SPC AC 191000

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0400 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

VALID 221200Z - 271200Z

...DISCUSSION...
MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT A SYNOPTIC UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MS VALLEY
WILL AMPLIFY TUESDAY /DAY 5/ BEFORE EJECTING NEGATIVELY TILTED
THROUGH THE SERN U.S. OVERNIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
CYCLOGENESIS WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT REACHING THE ERN CAROLINAS
SWWD INTO NRN FL EARLY DAY 6. IT CURRENTLY APPEARS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE STORMS WILL UNDERGO SOME INCREASE TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE FL PENINSULA...BUT ALSO POSSIBLY INTO SRN PARTS OF THE GULF
COAST STATES. RICHER GULF MOISTURE WILL ADVECT NWD THROUGH FL WITH
MID-UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS LIKELY. A MORE LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN MAY
OCCUR FARTHER WEST INTO THE CNTRL GULF COAST STATES. PRIMARY
UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME IS DEGREE OF INSTABILITY GIVEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND RELATIVELY EARLY ONSET OF
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION OVER A PORTION OF THIS REGION. HOWEVER...IF
MODELS CONTINUE TO DEMONSTRATE CONSISTENCY...AN UPGRADE TO A
CATEGORICAL RISK AREA IS LIKELY IN THE DAY 4 UPDATE ESPECIALLY OVER
THE FL PENINSULA.

BEYOND DAY 5 SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW UNTIL POSSIBLY
DAY 8.

..DIAL.. 12/19/2014



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