Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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ACUS48 KWNS 190930
SWOD48
SPC AC 190929

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0329 AM CST Sun Nov 19 2017

Valid 221200Z - 271200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Synoptic upper pattern will remain dominated by a trough over the
eastern U.S. with an upstream ridge in the west. Severe potential
will remain generally low with this regime. An exception might be
over the FL Peninsula around day 5 (Thursday) when models indicate a
vorticity maximum moving through the base of the southern-stream
trough will induce a weak cyclone over the eastern Gulf, along with
some increase in vertical shear near a warm/stationary front.
However, solutions differ regarding the strength of this feature,
and the thermodynamic environment will likely remain very marginal
which lowers overall predictability and severe potential.

..Dial.. 11/19/2017



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