Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS48 KWNS 010800
SWOD48
SPC AC 010759

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0259 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015

VALID 041200Z - 091200Z

...DISCUSSION...
MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT GENERAL BLOCKING PATTERN WILL PERSIST MUCH
OF THE 4-8 PERIOD WITH A LARGE-SCALE TROUGH OVER THE ERN STATES.
SYNOPTIC FRONT WILL SETTLE SWD AND STALL FROM THE MID ATLANTIC WWD
INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS AREA DAYS 4-6. SEVERAL IMPULSES WILL CREST
UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES THEN CONTINUE SEWD THROUGH THE
CNTRL PLAINS AND INTO BASE OF ERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE OH
AND TN VALLEYS. THIS REGIME WILL PROMOTE EPISODES OF STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS AND MCS DEVELOPMENT ANYWHERE FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS EWD
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. HOWEVER...OVERALL PREDICTABILITY
REMAINS LOW WITH THIS PATTERN DUE IN LARGE PART TO POTENTIAL FOR
EXTENSIVE ANTECEDENT CONVECTION WHICH WILL DETERMINE WHERE THE FOCUS
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ON SUBSEQUENT DAYS.

..DIAL.. 08/01/2015


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