Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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ACUS48 KWNS 300738
SWOD48
SPC AC 300736

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0236 AM CDT FRI SEP 30 2016

VALID 031200Z - 081200Z

...DISCUSSION...
A POTENT LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WRN U.S. WILL EMERGE IN
THE HIGH PLAINS ON TUESDAY /DAY 5/.  A SLOW TO ABATE SURFACE RIDGE
INTO THE NWRN GULF BASIN WILL LIKELY LIMIT QUALITY MOISTURE RETURN
PRIOR TO TUESDAY OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS.  BY TUESDAY
/DAY 5/...MEDIUM-RANGE DETERMINISTIC MODELS /GFS-ECMWF-UKMET/ AND
TIME-LAGGED VERSIONS OF THESE MODELS STRONGLY SUGGEST A CORRIDOR OF
NORTHWARD-RETURNING MOISTURE FROM THE GULF WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK
BUOYANCY FROM THE NORTH-CENTRAL PLAINS SOUTHWARD INTO OK/TX WHERE
BUOYANCY WILL BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER.  THE RISK FOR SOME SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY EXTEND AS FAR NORTH AS THE NORTH-CENTRAL PLAINS
BUT MODERATE BUOYANCY AND SHEAR PROFILES SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS
WILL SEEMINGLY FOCUS THE GREATEST RISK FOR SEVERE ACROSS ADJACENT
PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN TX/WESTERN OK AND INTO PARTS OF
WEST-CENTRAL KS.

..SMITH.. 09/30/2016



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