Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS48 KWNS 291001
SWOD48
SPC AC 291000

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0400 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

VALID 011200Z - 061200Z

...DISCUSSION...
MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT IN THE MEAN...SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN
DOMINATED BY AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO LIMIT A SIGNIFICANT INLAND RETURN OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...EXCEPT POSSIBLY FL WHERE AT LEAST A MODEST
THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS COULD DEVELOP BY DAY 7. HOWEVER...EXTENT OF
ANY SEVERE THREAT WILL DEPEND ON THE EVOLUTION OF CUTOFF UPPER LOW
CURRENTLY OVER THE ERN PACIFIC. MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER IN HOW
THEY HANDLE THIS FEATURE AS IT PHASES WITH NRN STREAM TROUGH AND
DEAMPLIFIES WHILE IT EJECTS THROUGH THE NRN GULF LATER IN THE 4-8
PERIOD.

..DIAL.. 01/29/2015


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