Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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ACUS48 KWNS 240821
SWOD48
SPC AC 240820

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0320 AM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016

VALID 271200Z - 011200Z

...DISCUSSION...
LONG-RANGE ENSEMBLE MEAN AND DETERMINISTIC GFS/ECMWF FORECASTS
DEPICT A RELATIVELY CONSISTENT PATTERN FEATURING A MIDLEVEL
ANTICYCLONE NEAR THE GREAT BASIN/FOUR CORNERS...AND A MEAN TROUGH
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
NWLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE CNTRL CONUS...AND MAY FEATURE BOUTS OF
STRONG CONVECTION AS EARLY AS WED/D4...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
CNTRL/NRN PLAINS. HOWEVER...PREDICTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH
SMALLER-SCALE UPPER IMPULSES AND SUBSEQUENT EFFECT ON MESOSCALE
DETAILS REMAINS QUITE LOW...PRECLUDING ANY PROBABILISTIC DELINEATION
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

..ROGERS.. 07/24/2016


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