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000
ACUS03 KWNS 240731
SWODY3
SPC AC 240730

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
OZARKS...

...SUMMARY...
An active severe weather day appears possible on Friday from parts
of Nebraska and Iowa southward into parts of the southern Great
Plains and Ozarks. A few tornadoes, large to very large hail, and
damaging winds will all be possible.

...Synopsis...
A negatively tilted mid/upper-level shortwave trough and associated
occluding surface low are forecast to move northeastward toward the
upper Great Lakes from Friday into Friday night. A trailing Pacific
front/dryline will move eastward through the day across the
central/southern Plains, before retreating westward Friday night. A
warm front will move northward in advance of the surface low across
MO into parts of IA, though its progress may be slowed by convective
outflow resulting from extensive D2/Thursday convection.

...Central/southern Plains into the mid MS Valley...
A relatively active severe weather day appears possible from eastern
portions of the Great Plains into parts of the mid MS Valley and
Ozarks on Friday. However, uncertainty remains regarding the impact
of extensive antecedent convection on the quality of the warm
sector.

Thunderstorms that develop late on D2/Thursday may be ongoing during
the morning from eastern KS into central/eastern OK and north TX. At
least some severe threat may persist through the morning with this
convection, as it spreads into parts of MO/AR. With favorable
deep-layer shear across the warm sector, some intensification of
early convection will be possible during the afternoon, though there
may be a tendency for storms to move eastward out of the primary
instability axis. The strongest storms across eastern portions of
the warm sector could pose at least some threat for all severe
hazards, though magnitude of the threat remains uncertain.

With the dryline not expected to make a strong eastward push, some
redevelopment cannot be ruled out later in the day. Depending on
heating and destabilization trends, supercell development will be
possible from eastern NE/western IA southward into the ArkLaTex
region. Large hail (potentially in excess of 2 inches in diameter)
and could accompany any supercell development in this area, given
the persistence of rich low-level moisture beneath steep midlevel
lapse rates. Persistent moderate to strong low-level flow/shear will
also support tornado potential, especially if supercells can be
sustained near the ejecting shortwave and surface low across
northern portions of the risk area.

Southwestward extent of the severe threat during the
afternoon/evening remains uncertain. Development cannot be entirely
ruled out from central OK into north/central TX along the nearly
stalled dryline, though coverage would likely remain very isolated
in the wake of the departing shortwave trough.

..Dean.. 04/24/2024

$$