Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
000
ACUS03 KWNS 160731
SWODY3
SPC AC 160730

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

VALID 181200Z - 191200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST EASTWARD
ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE
STORMS COULD DEVELOP IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHERE HAIL AND STRONG
WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN THE
OZARKS...LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND IN SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD.

...NRN PLAINS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS ON
THURSDAY AS A SHORT-TROUGH TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. AT
THE SFC...A LEE TROUGH WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED IN THE CNTRL AND NRN
HIGH PLAINS ALONG WHICH SFC DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE IN THE 50S F. AS SFC
TEMPS HEAT UP THURSDAY...A NARROW CORRIDOR OF MODERATE INSTABILITY
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON. A CAPPING INVERSION SHOULD
LIMIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT UNTIL EARLY EVENING AS THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHES THE DAKOTAS FROM THE WEST. IN ADDITION TO THE
INSTABILITY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 03Z/FRIDAY IN WRN ND SHOW 0-6 KM
SHEAR IN THE 35 TO 45 KT RANGE WITH 850 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES
APPROACHING 8.0 C/KM. THIS ENVIRONMENT COULD SUPPORT A MARGINAL
SEVERE THREAT AS CELLS INITIATE DURING THE EVENING. ALTHOUGH
MID-LEVEL TEMPS WILL BE WARM...THE INSTABILITY AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A HAIL WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS. A FEW
MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY EVENING.

..BROYLES.. 09/16/2014




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.