Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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ACUS03 KWNS 040708
SWODY3
SPC AC 040707

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0207 AM CDT WED MAY 04 2016

VALID 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW SEVERE...ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
INTERIOR WEST FROM PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN COLORADO INTO EASTERN
OREGON.  HAIL IS THE PRIMARY THREAT.

...INTERIOR WEST...

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT UPPER LOW OFF THE CA COAST WILL
SHIFT EAST INTO THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY BY THE END OF THE DAY3
PERIOD.  WHILE STRONGEST MID-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD TRANSLATE ACROSS NRN
MEXICO INTO THE SRN ROCKIES...ADEQUATE ELY FLOW ALOFT WILL EXTEND
ACROSS UT INTO THE NRN INTER-MOUNTAIN REGION.  WHILE TIMING
INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES WILL BE DIFFICULT...THERE IS REASON TO
BELIEVE A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH COULD ROTATE NWWD ACROSS THIS REGION
DURING THE DAY.  IF SO...LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WOULD AID CONVECTION
WITHIN A SHEARED REGIME CAPABLE OF SUSTAINING ORGANIZED MULTI-CELL
UPDRAFTS.  FORECAST INSTABILITY IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG BUT
ROBUST UPDRAFTS COULD PRODUCE HAIL.  FOR THIS REASON HAVE INTRODUCED
SEVERE PROBS.

...ELSEWHERE...

STRONG SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL DIG SEWD ACROSS MB/ON LATE IN THE
PERIOD.  HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES
COULD AID CONVECTION ALONG COLD FRONT AS IT PROGRESSES INTO THIS
REGION DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD.  EXPECTED WEAK
INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT UPDRAFT STRENGTH.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG WRN PERIPHERY OF EAST COAST
UPPER TROUGH.  DIURNAL HEATING WITHIN STRONG NNWLY FLOW COULD
GENERATE A FEW ORGANIZED TSTMS.  HOWEVER...MARGINAL
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY APPEAR INADEQUATE FOR SUSTAINING ORGANIZED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

..DARROW.. 05/04/2016

$$



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