Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS03 KWNS 260659
SWODY3
SPC AC 260658

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0158 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

VALID 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE FAR ERN CAROLINAS AND
EXTREME SERN VA...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
APPEAR LIKELY ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN CAROLINAS AND ACROSS EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA. AN ISOLATED WIND THREAT MAY EXIST ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND EARLY...AND A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES.

...SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN OVER NEW ENGLAND AS THE PRIMARY SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EJECTS NEWD OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. TO THE SW...A SURFACE
FRONT/TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM FAR ERN VA ACROSS THE ERN CAROLINAS BY
AFTERNOON...THEN WWD ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF COAST STATES. A VERY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY...WITH AMPLE
SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS OVER THE ERN CAROLINAS.

...ERN CAROLINAS INTO EXTREME SERN VA...
STRONG INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND BENEATH
40-60 KT MID TO UPPER LEVEL WLY FLOW AT THE BASE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH. GIVEN THE FOCUSED FORCING FOR ASCENT...PERHAPS AIDED BY A
SEA-BREEZE NEAR THE COAST...A ZONE OF VIGOROUS CONVECTION IS LIKELY
IN THE FORM OF SUPERCELLS OR SMALL CLUSTERS. THE STRONGEST CELLS
SHOULD BE CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL UP TO GOLF
BALL/HEN EGG SIZE.

...NEW ENGLAND EARLY...
WHAT REMAINS OF AN MCS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SURFACE LOW WILL
QUICKLY MOVE NWD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
THAT THESE STORMS WILL BE DECOUPLED FROM A RELATIVELY STABLE/COOLER
BOUNDARY LAYER. STILL...SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE VERY STRONG AT THIS
TIME...AND A LOCALIZED SEVERE WIND GUST CANNOT BE RULED OUT. IF A
MORE UNSTABLE/MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER CAN GET INLAND AND INTERACT WITH
THESE EARLY STORMS...A BRIEF WINDOW FOR A TORNADO COULD EXIST BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW FOR A SLIGHT RISK.

...CNTRL AND SRN MS/AL/GA...FL PANHANDLE AND ERN LA...
SCATTERED DAYTIME STORMS ALONG THE FRONT ARE LIKELY MAINLY FROM MS
INTO GA. STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SUBSTANTIAL INSTABILITY
DESPITE MARGINAL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL POTENTIAL.
A FEW SWD-MOVING CLUSTERS OF CELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE. PORTIONS OF
THIS AREA MAY EVENTUALLY BE IN A MINIMAL SLIGHT RISK IN LATER
OUTLOOKS WHEN CONFIDENCE INCREASES.

..JEWELL.. 07/26/2014




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