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Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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ACUS11 KWNS 011858
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011857
MAZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-020000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0110
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1257 PM CST SUN MAR 01 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST COAST

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION

VALID 011857Z - 020000Z

SUMMARY...SNOWFALL RATES ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND
LONG ISLAND ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
WITH SNOWFALL RATES OCCASIONALLY EXCEEDING 1 INCH PER HOUR. A
TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS
DE...CNTRL/SRN NJ...AND FAR ERN PA. FREEZING RAIN RATES MAY TOP 0.05
INCH PER HOUR WITH TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS AROUND 0.10 TO 0.20
INCH...LOCALLY HIGHER...POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY
INDICATE AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN ACROSS NE MARYLAND WITH MODERATE
SNOW NEWD ACROSS NJ...LONG ISLAND...AND INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
OVERALL UPPER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS -- ASIDE FROM A GENERAL INCREASE IN MID/UPPER WIND
SPEEDS -- WITH PERSISTENT MID-LEVEL WAA FAVORING A CONTINUATION OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION AMIDST GRADUALLY WARMING MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES. AS SUCH...A TRANSITION FROM SNOW/SLEET TO MOSTLY
FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED OVER DE AND MOST OF NJ WITHIN THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO. ONCE THIS TRANSITION OCCURS...FREEZING RAIN RATES MAY
TOP 0.05 INCH PER HOUR. GIVEN THE EXPECTED PERSISTENCE OF THE
PRECIPITATION...THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS --
AT OR ABOVE 0.25 INCH -- IS POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH ACCUMULATIONS CLOSER
TO 0.15 INCH APPEAR MORE LIKELY.

FARTHER N /LONG ISLAND...SRN NEW ENGLAND/...SNOWFALL RATES ARE
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE AS THE MID-LEVEL FLOW AND RESULTANT
WAA INCREASE. SNOWFALL RATES WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN ONE INCH
PER HOUR BUT THE POTENTIAL EXIST RATES IN EXCESS OF ONE INCH PER
HOUR WITHIN ANY BANDS THAT SET UP.

..MOSIER/CORFIDI.. 03/01/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...

LAT...LON   40927194 40417364 39627416 38577533 39007614 39837655
            40747575 41357477 42047257 41927052 40927194

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