Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 250817
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250817
TXZ000-251215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0757
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0317 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PERMIAN BASIN...CONCHO VALLEY...EDWARDS PLATEAU

CONCERNING...01Z OUTLOOK UPGRADE

VALID 250817Z - 251215Z

SUMMARY...CONVECTION DEVELOPING FROM THE TRANS-PECOS TO COAHUILA
SHOULD INTENSIFY AS IT SPREADS EWD IN PARTS OF W TX THIS MORNING.
LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD INITIALLY...BUT A TORNADO
AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
ERN EDWARDS PLATEAU. MONITORING FOR POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE...WITH AN
EFFECTIVE UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK THROUGH 12Z.

DISCUSSION...FORCED ASCENT AHEAD OF A COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CROSSING INTO THE TRANS-PECOS IN CONJUNCTION WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
SURGING NW ALONG THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY HAS AIDED IN TSTM INITIATION
SINCE 07Z ACROSS FAR W TX TO NRN COAHUILA. CAM GUIDANCE IS QUITE
CONSISTENT WITH SUGGESTING TWO DISTINCT TSTM CLUSTERS EVOLVING E/NE
FROM THESE AREAS THROUGH THE MORNING /ALBEIT WITH VARYING LEVELS OF
INTENSITY/.

THE NWRN PORTION MAY REMAIN PREDOMINATELY ELEVATED GIVEN THE DEGREE
OF MLCIN ON THE NWRN PERIPHERY OF THE RETURNING GULF MOISTURE PLUME.
BUT VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONGEST DCVA SHOULD
SUPPORT AT LEAST A LARGE HAIL RISK OVER THE PERMIAN BASIN/CONCHO
VALLEY. THE SERN PORTION SHOULD HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL TO MAINTAIN
SURFACE-BASED CHARACTER GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
DEW POINTS ALREADY FROM DRT TO JCT ON S. WITH 0-1 KM SHEAR OF 35 KT
SAMPLED IN DFX VWP DATA AND LARGE INSTABILITY...A MORNING TORNADO
RISK MIGHT DEVELOP DESPITE SOME DEGREE OF MLCIN. OTHERWISE...LARGE
HAIL AND ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE THE MAIN HAZARDS.

..GRAMS/HART.. 05/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...

LAT...LON   31730281 32050221 32340142 32440102 32340065 32040053
            31510045 30779994 30599957 30519918 30229893 29769888
            29349902 28769980 28550049 29640132 30380174 30800299
            31210324 31730281



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