Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
ACUS11 KWNS 051747
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051746
LAZ000-MSZ000-TXZ000-051945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1305
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1246 PM CDT SUN JUL 05 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...MOST OF LA...FAR SW MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 051746Z - 051945Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...TSTM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON WITH A RESULTING INCREASE IN THE DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL.
A WW MAY BE NEEDED IF AN ORGANIZED SVR THREAT BEGINS TO DEVELOP.

DISCUSSION...CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE
NEXT HOUR OR SO ACROSS CNTRL LA AS DAYTIME HEATING CONTINUES AND
CONVERGENCE ALONG MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES INCREASES. REGIONAL RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWS A CLUSTER OF TSTMS ACROSS BEAUREGARD PARISH IN SW LA
MOVING NEWD WHILE AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE TSTMS ACROSS CNTRL MS
PUSHES SWWD. THIS OUTFLOW PLUS THE ANTICIPATED OUTFLOW FROM THE
ACTIVITY IN SW LA WILL LIKELY PROVIDE THE IMPETUS FOR ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
ARE CONTRIBUTING TO A STRONG INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION WITH
RECENT MESOANALYSIS ESTIMATING MLCAPE GREATER THAN 3000 J PER KG.
WHILE THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS GOOD...THE KINEMATIC
ENVIRONMENT IS RATHER ANEMIC. LCH 12Z SOUNDING SAMPLED NO WINDS
ABOVE 30 KT BELOW 300 MB /ROUGHLY 10 KM/. SOME STRONGER ANVIL LEVEL
WINDS ARE NOTED BUT THIS SHOULD BE OF LITTLE BENEFIT TO STORM
ORGANIZATION GIVEN THE LACK OF WINDS BELOW ANVIL LEVEL.

GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...THE
ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR PRECIPITATION LOADING AND A RESULTING
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. CURRENTLY...CONFIDENCE REGARDING
AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT IS LOW BUT TRENDS ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE
MONITORED AND IF ORGANIZATION ALONG A COOL POOL BEGINS TO OCCUR...A
WW MAY BE NEEDED.

..MOSIER/MEAD.. 07/05/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

LAT...LON   29989242 31049349 31909396 32569375 32799286 32679229
            32169185 31619100 31509078 31209028 30489021 30029073
            29839154 29989242




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.