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000
ACUS11 KWNS 250123
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250123
NDZ000-MTZ000-250300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1465
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0823 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/WRN ND AND FAR ERN MT

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 439...

VALID 250123Z - 250300Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 439
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE SVR-TSTM RISK CONTINUES ACROSS REMAINING-VALID
PORTIONS OF WW 439. WHILE A WEAKENING TREND IN THE ONGOING ACTIVITY
MAY OCCUR...THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY THAT LOCAL EWD EXTENSION OF
THE WW MAY BE NECESSARY.

DISCUSSION...A BROKEN BAND OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS INVOF THE
MT/ND BORDER WILL CONTINUE TRACKING EWD AT 35-50 KT IN TANDEM WITH A
SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT. CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED COLD POOLS ARE
ENCOURAGING STRONG SFC PRESSURE RISES IN ITS WAKE -- E.G. 3.0-5.5 MB
PER 2 HOURS. THE ATTENDANT ISALLOBARIC FORCING HAS HAD A RECENT
HISTORY OF SUPPORTING MEASURED SVR WIND GUSTS WITH BOWING SEGMENTS
IN THE BAND. AS THIS ACTIVITY SPREADS EWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF ND...IT
WILL EXPERIENCE PROGRESSIVELY STRONGER CAPPING -- REF. 00Z BIS RAOB
-- AND PERHAPS WEAKEN. NOCTURNAL SFC COOLING AND ASSOCIATED PBL
STABILIZATION MAY ALSO PROVE DELETERIOUS IS SUSTAINING ANY
APPRECIABLE SVR RISK BEYOND AN HOUR OR TWO FROM PRESENT.
HOWEVER...WITH STRONG ASCENT AT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE CONVECTIVELY
AUGMENTED SYNOPTIC COLD POOL AMIDST STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...THERE
IS SOME POSSIBILITY THAT SVR WINDS MAY EXTEND E OF THE WW. THIS
COULD REQUIRE LOCAL EWD EXTENSION OF THE WW.

..COHEN.. 07/25/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BIS...GGW...

LAT...LON   46310366 48480413 48970272 48930106 48040041 46510119
            46310366