Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 270544
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 270544
ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-270645-

Mesoscale Discussion 0341
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1244 AM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

Areas affected...Parts of northeast TX...far southeastern OK...and
southwestern AR

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 88...

Valid 270544Z - 270645Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 88
continues.

SUMMARY...An isolated damaging wind and large hail threat continues
across northern portions of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 88. A brief
tornado also remains possible. An eastward extension in area of the
watch may be needed based on current radar trends.

DISCUSSION...Several clusters of thunderstorms with occasional
bowing characteristics are moving northeastward around 40 kt across
far southeastern OK/northeast TX into southwestern AR as of 0540Z.
While the airmass downstream is not overly unstable (MLCAPE up to
500 J/kg), continued strong low-level warm air advection associated
with a 40-50 kt low-level jet and effective bulk shear around 45-50
kt will probably be sufficient to support continued maintenance of
these clusters for the next few hours. Isolated damaging winds
should be the main threat given the storm mode and recent radar
trends, although some large hail and perhaps a brief tornado cannot
be ruled out. Given the current track on ongoing strong/severe
convection, an extension in area of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 88
into more of southwestern AR may be warranted soon.

..Gleason.. 03/27/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...

LAT...LON   33329548 34259473 35279375 35289348 34949314 34239313
            33179342 32979421 33019551 33329548



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