Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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FNUS71 KALY 221503
FWSALY

Spot Forecast for Lafayetteville Rx Fire...NYSDEC
National Weather Service Albany NY
1103 AM EDT Fri Mar 22 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1200 EDT on March 22.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at alb.stormreport@noaa.gov, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...
Weak high pressure passing overhead today will yield dry but
cool conditions across the region with gradually subsiding
winds. A pair of low pressure systems will bring widespread
moderate to heavy precipitation Friday night through Saturday.
Hazards associated with plowable snows, light ice or sleet
accumulations, and flooding rains are possible across portions
of the forecast area. Dry weather returns Sunday into next week.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent).
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Max temperature.....Around 37.
Min humidity........30 percent.
Dewpoint............6.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......West winds 5 to 6 mph shifting to the southwest
                    late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......3700 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 6 to 8 mph shifting to the southwest
                    around 6 mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (17100 knot-ft).
LVORI...............2.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Pcpn amount.........0.00 inches.

TIME (EDT)      12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........52  59  65  65  64  64
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0   10  10  10  10  10
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............29  31  33  35  36  36
Dewpoint........4   5   6   7   8   8
RH..............34  32  31  30  30  30
20 FT wind dir..W   W   W   SW  SW  S
20 FT wind spd..6   6   5   5   6   6
20 FT wind gust.8   7   7   6   8   8
Mix hgt (kft)...3.4 3.4 3.4 3.6 3.7 3.5
Transp wind dir.NW  W   W   W   SW  SW
Transp wind spd.8   7   6   6   6   6
LVORI...........1   2   2   2   2   2
Haines index....4   4   4   4   4   4
Vrate kt-ft/1K..23  20  17  17  18  17
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Slight chance of
                    snow in the evening, then rain, freezing rain
                    and snow likely overnight.
Chance of pcpn......70 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Min temperature.....Around 31.
Max humidity........97 percent.
Dewpoint............12 increasing to 28.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......South winds around 6 mph increasing to 5 to 10
                    mph.
Mixing height.......500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 5 to 14 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (13000 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (1700 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
LVORI...............4.
Haines Index........2 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.
Pcpn amount.........0.22 inches.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........67  70  73  77  82  87  90  94  98  98  98  98
Weather cov.....                    SCH CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY
Weather type....                    SN  SN  SN  ZRS RN  RN  RN
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).10  10  10  10  10  20  30  40  60  60  70  70
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............36  34  32  32  31  32  31  31  31  32  32  33
Dewpoint........10  11  12  14  16  19  21  23  26  27  28  30
RH..............33  38  43  47  53  58  66  72  81  81  85  89
20 FT wind dir..S   SE  SE  S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..6   5   5   6   6   8   9   10  10  10  10  10
20 FT wind gust.8   6   6   7   10  12  13  15  15  14  15  15
Mix hgt (kft)...2.7 1.6 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.9
Transp wind dir.S   SE  SE  SE  S   S   S   S   S   S   SE  SE
Transp wind spd.6   5   5   5   6   7   9   12  14  14  14  14
LVORI...........2   2   2   2   2   2   3   3   4   4   4   5
Haines index....4   4   3   3   3   3   3   3   2   2   2   2
Vrate kt-ft/1K..13  8   3   2   2   4   7   10  12  13  12  11
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR

$$
Forecaster...Rathbun
Requested by...Lt Kevin Slade
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2407869.2/ALY
.DELDT 03/22/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL kevin.slade@dec.ny.gov


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