Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID

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000
FXUS65 KBOI 011602
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
902 AM MST SUN FEB 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...HIGH CLOUDS CAME IN DURING THE NIGHT AND HALTED
RADIATIONAL COOLING IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN PARTS OF OUR CWA.
LOW TEMPS THIS MORNING WERE 25 TO 30 AT MOST SITES.  SOME
EASTERN BASINS GOT QUITE COLD...FAIRFIELD WAS 5 BELOW ZERO.
CLOUDS ALSO LIMITED FOG FORMATION BUT THERE WERE PATCHES IN ERN
ZONES.  PACIFIC TROUGH HAS COME ONSHORE IN OREGON AND LOOKS MOIST
ENOUGH FOR LIGHT PCPN IN OUR CWA LATE TODAY AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT.
HIGHER MET POPS LOOK MUCH BETTER THAN MAV POPS WHICH CAN HARDLY SEE
ANY PCPN...ALTHOUGH THE RAW GFS DOES OUTPUT SOME IN OUR CWA TONIGHT.
PCPN-TYPE TONIGHT SHOULD BE RAIN BELOW 4000 FEET MSL...MIXED RAIN
AND SNOW BETWEEN 4000 AND 5000 FEET...AND SNOW ABOVE 5000 FEET.
AFTER A BREAK MONDAY MORNING A STRONGER PACIFIC TROUGH WILL BRING
MORE SIGNIFICANT PCPN LATE MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...SNOW LEVEL HOLDING
STEADY.  ENOUGH QPF IN NRN MOUNTAINS FOR A FOOT OF NEW SNOW THROUGH
TUESDAY ABOVE 5500 FEET MSL. VALLEYS WILL HAVE GENERALLY .10 INCH OR
LESS QPF LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT UP TO .30 INCH IN NRN-MOST
VALLEYS. QPF MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WILL BE HEAVIER... GENERALLY
.25 TO .50 INCH IN IDAHO NORTH OF THE SNAKE BASIN AND .05 TO .25
INCH IN THE SNAKE BASIN AND SOUTH.  SIMILAR AMOUNTS IN OREGON...
GREATEST IN BAKER COUNTY.  CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD ON ALL THIS
...NO UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. INCREASING AND LOWERING CLOUDS THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS IN VALLEY RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW AFTER 20Z. SNOW LEVELS GENERALLY 4500-5500 FT MSL NEAR
THE NEVADA BORDER...LOWERING TO 3000-4000 FT MSL NEAR KBKE AND KMYL.
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY. SE TO SW SURFACE WINDS
GENERALLY 15 KTS OR LESS. WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL AVERAGE 20 KTS
THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...BY MONDAY AFTERNOON EXPECT
VALLEY RAIN /SOME AREAS RAIN-SHADOWED/ AND MOUNTAIN SNOW. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING NORTHERN ZONES A THREAT OF RAIN OR SNOW TODAY
AND ANOTHER BIT STRONGER SYSTEM CROSSES SE OREGON THIS EVENING AND
WEAKENS AS IT CROSSES SW IDAHO TONIGHT...DUE TO THE LONG WAVE
WESTERN U.S. RIDGE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BUT MOUNTAINS
WILL COOL OFF FROM RECENT WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. SNOW LEVELS
GENERALLY 3500 TO 4500 FEET NORTH AND 5500-6500 FEET SOUTH.

LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...WET CONDITIONS MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AS WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PUMPS
MOISTURE INLAND. SNOW LEVELS WILL RANGE FROM 4500 FT TO 6500 FT
MSL FOR PERIODS OF BOTH RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS ELEVATED VALLEYS.
DRIER OVERALL ON THURSDAY...AS A PACIFIC RIDGE SHIFTS INLAND OVER
OREGON/IDAHO. HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL REMAIN
PROGRESSIVE AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS QUICKLY EASTWARD AND MOIST
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW /ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE/ BRINGS MORE
PRECIPITATION BEGINNING LATE FRIDAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE
NOTABLE...ALLOWING SNOW LEVELS TO RISE TO 6000 TO 7500 FT MSL.
EXPECT MILD TEMPERATURES AND RAIN /EVEN ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN/
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....JDS
PREV SHORT TERM...VM
PREV LONG TERM....MT



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