Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID

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FXUS65 KBOI 300926

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
326 AM MDT Tue May 30 2017

.SHORT TERM...Today through Wednesday...The well-above normal
temperatures today, which are typical for late July/early August,
will be short-lived as the upper ridge shifts east. Mid and upper
level moisture will increase today ahead of an upper trough and
cold front, while lower levels remain dry. This setup is conducive
for high-based convection, capable of producing gusty winds and
little rainfall. Isolated showers and thunderstorms (with gusty
winds) will be expanded to include most of SE Oregon and the
Owyhees of SW Idaho this afternoon and evening. Cooler
temperatures will funnel into SE Oregon and most of SW Idaho with
the arrival of the trough and cold front. Moisture will increase
resulting in more clouds and a better chance of showers, along
with a slight chance of thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon across
most of SE Oregon and the West Central mountains of SW Idaho.
Temperatures will be 10-15 degrees cooler in SE Oregon and 5-10
degrees cooler in SW Idaho (except little change in s-central ID
which includes the Western Magic Valley). Strong winds are not
anticipated with the front, with post-frontal westerly winds of
5-15 mph in the afternoon.

.LONG TERM...Wednesday night through Tuesday...The upper level
trough and associated precipitation will impact the CWA for the
beginning of the extended period. Precipitation still looks to
favor the higher elevations with Thursday afternoon looking to be
the most favorable. Instability with the trough is enough to fire
off some afternoon thunderstorms. A brief period of drying Friday
as the upper level trough presses eastward and a transitional
ridge begins to build over the area. The next upper level trough
begins pressing into the area Saturday night. Models are differing
on precipitation placement initially, but then come in a little
better alignment by Sunday evening. Still looks to favor the
higher elevations. The ECMWF wants to push this Low, which it
closes up to our northeast, while the GFS holds it a little
further south. The GFS suggests precipitation to hang around a
little longer for the West Central Mountains. Have a mention of
slight chances of showers for this area for the end of the period.
Temperatures dance around a bit for the extended with some
warming to the low 80`s for valley locations for next weekend, but
another slight cool down as the next upper level trough pushes


.AVIATION...VFR with an increase in mid to upper level cloud
cover through the day. Slight chances of showers for the
afternoon, mostly in the higher elevations of our Oregon zones
around KBKE and KBNO. Surface winds variable 5-10 kts through
Tuesday afternoon, then 10-25 kts. Winds aloft to 10k feet MSl,
southerly 10-35 kts.





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