Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID

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FXUS65 KBOI 270231

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
831 MDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.DISCUSSION...Some high-based clouds were moving across northwestern
Nevada through southern Idaho this evening, but skies were clear
elsewhere.  As expected, today was about 10 degrees warmer than
Saturday.  Monday will be another 7 to 10 degrees warmer than today,
and probably the hottest day of the coming week, but only by a
small margin.  A weak short wave trough from the southwest will
cool us slightly Tuesday while pushing the hottest air to our east.
Just enough instability and moisture for a slight chance of
thunderstorms Monday afternoon and evening in the Idaho central
mountains.  Gradual cooling late in the week as an upper trough
from the Gulf of Alaska edges inland into the northwest states.
No updates.


.AVIATION...VFR with clear skies. Surface winds will be variable at
10 kts or less. Winds aloft at 10k ft MSL: SSW 5-15 kts.


SHORT TERM...Tonight through Tuesday...Southwest flow aloft is
currently in place over the forecast area as warmer temperatures
aloft continue to move into the region. Expect another 10 degrees
of warming on Monday afternoon, with temperatures near 100
degrees in the Snake Plain. A weak shortwave present on water
vapor satellite imagery near 135W and 37N will move across
southeast Oregon and southwest Idaho on Monday afternoon. Enough
instability is present with this shortwave, combined with surface
heating, to trigger an isolated thunderstorm over the central
Idaho mountains Monday afternoon and evening. As the shortwave
moves east, upper level heights decrease slightly for Tuesday
afternoon, with temperatures slightly cooler on Tuesday compared
to Monday. Enough instability present Tuesday afternoon will allow
clouds to form over the higher terrain with a chance of thunderstorms
mainly over the central Idaho mountains, with mostly clear skies
in the Snake Plain.

LONG TERM...Tuesday night through Friday night...An upper level
ridge with its axis almost directly overhead will dominate the
weather through at least Wednesday. As an upper low off the
British Columbia coast begins to push the ridge east, shortwaves
in the flow will tap into some monsoon moisture and present the
chance of showers on Thursday and Friday afternoons. However,
models are showing the majority of this convective activity
staying mostly to the south and east of the forecast area, so
confidence is low on any showers or thunderstorms.  Temperatures
are expected to remain well above normal through the period with
some abatement on Friday possible with showers andincreased
cloud cover.

Friday night through Sunday...The upper low off the British
Columbia coast continues to shift the upper level ridge eastward
through the period, keeping the hottest temperatures south and
east of the area. Some instability is present in the afternoons
for both Saturday and Sunday, so thunderstorms are not out of
the question. Temperatures remain around 5 degrees above normal
through this period.





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