Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID

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000
FXUS65 KBOI 022041
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
241 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...CONTINUED HOT THROUGH SATURDAY WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON/
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE NEVADA BORDER...BUT A LITTLE FARTHER
NORTH SATURDAY.  DRY ELSEWHERE.  LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN WITH UPPER HIGH STILL OVER THE GREAT BASIN...BUT A SLIGHT
DIFFERENCE IN THE FAR NORTH WHERE UPPER WINDS WILL TURN TO WNW
AND BRING SLIGHT COOLING.  FOR BOISE...SATURDAY SHOULD REACH 100F
AND TIE THEIR RECORD FOR MOST CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH NINE.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
WRN CANADA WILL PUSH THE GREAT BASIN HIGH FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO COOL
TEMPS ABOUT 5 DEGS SUNDAY AND FINALLY KEEP MAX TEMPS BELOW 100F...
EXCEPT IN THE LOWEST VALLEYS AND NEAR BRUNEAU AND GRANDVIEW IN
IDAHO.  THUNDERSTORMS IN SRN-MOST ZONES SATURDAY EVENING MAY SEND
OUTFLOW WINDS NWD INTO THE TREASURE AND MAGIC VALLEYS.  CLOUDS WILL
KEEP TEMPS WARM SATURDAY NIGHT.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...RIDGE HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN SUPPRESSED
/BY THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER/ THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY BE SHORT-LIVED...HOWEVER...AS THE TROUGH
AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD MONDAY AND THE UPPER RIDGE REAMPLIFIES IN ITS
WAKE. EXPECT VALLEY TEMPERATURES TO PEAK IN THE MID-TO-UPPER 90S
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH STRONG
HEATING IN THIS PATTERN - WARRANTING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS /ACROSS SE ORE AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF SW ID/EACH
AFTERNOON. THERE REMAINS SOME HOPE FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES LATE
NEXT WEEK AS THE 12Z ECMWF BRINGS A CLOSED PACIFIC LOW INLAND LATE
FRIDAY...BUT MODEL DISCREPANCIES ABOUND AND CONFIDENCE IN COOLER
CONDITIONS REMAINS LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE OREGON-NEVADA
BORDER THROUGH 04Z. N/NW SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 5 TO 10 KTS -
BECOMING LIGHT AND TERRAIN-DRIVEN AFTER 04Z. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
ALOFT WILL AVERAGE 15 KTS THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....LC/MT
AVIATION.....MT



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