741
FXUS65 KBOI 120809
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
209 AM MDT Sun May 12 2024

.SHORT TERM...Today through Tuesday night...An upper level ridge
axis is over the area this morning, and it will shift east
during the day, allowing SW flow ahead of an approaching trough
to move into the area late this afternoon and tonight. This
trough is now showing up stronger than in previous runs, and we
have increased the chance of showers and thunderstorms for both
this evening and Monday. The best chance (10-30%) this
afternoon/evening is over southeast Oregon, while the best
chance Monday is in/near the eastern mountains and Owyhee and
Twin Falls counties. The trough will move out of the area Monday
afternoon/evening, pushing a cold front through the region, and
leaving us with dry NW flow aloft Tue and Tue night. After a
very warm day today with highs 10-15 degrees above normal,
temps will drop down a few degrees Monday, and then a few more
Tue. Tuesday`s highs will only be about 5 degrees above normal.

.LONG TERM...Wednesday through Sunday...Models are finally
coming into better agreement concerning the evolution of flow
coming into the PacNW next week. A new large ridge off the
coast will bring warming temperatures and dry conditions Wed
through Fri, after which a trough is expected to move in Sat or
Sun. This trough will result in a low chance of precipitation
mainly in the higher terrain Sat and Sun (10-30%). Northwest
winds will be a little stronger than normal each day in the long
term.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR with clear skies this morning. Increasing mid-
level clouds across SE Oregon this afternoon with isolated
showers and thunderstorms late this afternoon and this evening.
Surface winds: W-NW 5-15 kt, strongest KMUO to KJER/KTWF this
afternoon with gusts to 25 kt possible. Winds at 10kft MSL:
W-NW 10-25 kt.

KBOI...VFR under clear skies. Surface winds: light overnight,
becoming NW around 10kt with gusts to 15 kt this afternoon.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.

&&

$$

www.weather.gov/Boise

Interact with us via social media:
www.facebook.com/NWSBoise
www.twitter.com/NWSBoise

SHORT TERM...SP
LONG TERM....SP
AVIATION.....SP