Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID

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000
FXUS65 KBOI 312100
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
300 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...NO LIGHTNING YET IN OR NEAR OUR CWA. THE NEAREST
LIGHTNING AS OF 2 PM MDT WAS STILL IN THE CENTRAL SIERRA NEVADA NEAR
TRUCKEE CALIFORNIA.  MID AND HIGH-LEVEL MONSOON MOISTURE WAS STILL
FLOWING NORTH IN THE SIERRA THEN NE ACROSS CENTRAL OREGON.  MOISTURE
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ALONG THIS TRACK LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
WHILE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE.  SATURDAY NOW LOOKS WARMER
THAN SUNDAY AS CLOUDS MAY LIMIT HEATING SUNDAY.   THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE LATE SUNDAY ALONG OUR SRN CWA BORDER AS
WELL AS IN THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS AND BLUE MOUNTAINS IN OREGON.
LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURE FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE SHIFTING EAST OF THE ROCKIES...AVERAGE DAILY TEMPERATURES WILL
TREND DOWNWARD FROM A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY TO A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR WILL PROVIDE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...TRIGGERED BY WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MODELS DIFFER ON
TIMING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AS IT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST
COAST. BUT THEY DO AGREE THAT DRIER MORE STABLE AIR FROM THE WEST
WILL DECREASE THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH WILL BE MAINLY
CONFINED TO THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR UNDER CLEAR SKIES. WINDS SURFACE AND ALOFT...
VARIABLE 10 KTS OR LESS.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK...VFR. EASTERN OREGON...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY...AND AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOUTHWEST
IDAHO...ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEST
CENTRAL IDAHO AND BOISE MOUNTAINS...AND SOUTH OF THE SNAKE RIVER
VALLEY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....JT/JC
AVIATION.....JT


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