Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID

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000
FXUS65 KBOI 010245
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
845 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...STORMS TONIGHT HAVE BEEN PROLIFIC RAINFALL
PRODUCERS...WITH 1.49 INCHES REPORTED AT IDAHO CITY...FOR EXAMPLE.
ACTIVITY IS WINDING DOWN FOR THE MOST PART AS OF 830 PM MDT...BUT
STORMS ARE STILL MOVING INTO SE OREGON...SPECIFICALLY HARNEY
COUNTY. THERE IS A SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO OREGON...SO THERE IS
ABOVE-NORMAL CONFIDENCE FOR CONTINUING CONVECTION WELL PAST
SUNSET. GRIDS MAY NEED TO HAVE POPS RAISED IN HARNEY COUNTY. WILL
EVALUATE AND UPDATE BY 10 PM IF NEEDED.

&&

.AVIATION...TRW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH APPROX 08Z VCNTY KBNO.
EXPECT WIND GUSTS TO 40 KTS. OTHERWISE VFR WITH BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MID AND HIGH LEVELS CLOUDS. GUSTY WINDS TO 30 KTS NEAR
KBOI WILL DIMINISH BY 04Z. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AWAY FROM
STORMS. WINDS ALOFT TO 10 KFT WILL BE VARIABLE LESS THAN 8 KTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...ACTIVE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL
IN WESTERN BAKER COUNTY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON NEAR A NEWD-MOVING
SHORT WAVE TROUGH. ANOTHER WAVE WILL FOLLOW LATER THIS AFTERNOON
SO BAKER COUNTY IS THE AREA OF MAIN CONCERN. WE HAVE ISSUED A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR WRN AND NRN BAKER COUNTY AND NEARBY PORTIONS
OF NRN MALHEUR AND HARNEY COUNTIES UNTIL 8 PM PDT. THUNDERSTORMS
IN CENTRAL IDAHO HAVE TENDED TO DEVELOP LATER IN THE AFTERNOON SO
WE WILL WATCH FOR THEM AS WELL. SOME MOISTURE FROM EX-TS HERNAN
ALSO APPEARS TO BE MOVING NEWD ACROSS THE SRN SAWTOOTHS. FORECAST
WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS...WITH LOCAL HEAVY
RAIN...SMALL HAIL...AND GUSTY WINDS.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS SHOW THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION GRADUALLY WEAKENING. BY
TUESDAY NIGHT LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO CUT OFF THE
SUPPLY OF MONSOON MOISTURE...DECREASING THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
UNTIL THEN WE CAN EXPECT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM MDT /8 PM PDT/ THIS EVENING
     ORZ061>063.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION.....SP
PREV SHORT TERM...LC
PREV LONG TERM....JT/AB


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