Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

000
FGUS75 KBOU 131946 RRA
ESFBOU
COC001-005-013-014-019-031-035-039-047-049-057-059-069-073-075-087-
093-095-115-117-121-123-272300-

WATER SUPPLY OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
146 PM MDT MON MAY 13 2013

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STREAMFLOW FORECASTS FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST COLORADO AS OF MAY 2013.

WITH THE WET WEATHER PATTERN THIS SPRING...MOUNTAIN SNOWPACK IN
NORTHERN COLORADO ROSE DRAMATICALLY AND BY LATE APRIL THE BASINS IN
NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO HAD REACHED 95 TO NEAR 100 PERCENT OF THEIR
ANNUAL AVERAGE PEAK SNOWPACK. THE EARLY MAY SNOWPACK HELD FAIRLY
STEADY AS STORMS CONTINUED TO MOVE OVER THE AREA. ON MAY 13TH THE
SNOWPACK WAS 121 PERCENT OF AVERAGE IN THE SOUTH PLATTE BASIN...113
PERCENT OF AVERAGE IN THE UPPER COLORADO RIVER BASIN AND 91 PERCENT
OF AVERAGE IN THE NORTH PLATTE BASIN.

TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RUNNING 4 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE THE
PAST MONTH. THESE COLD TEMPERATURES CONTRIBUTED TO LESS SNOWPACK
RUNOFF AND LOWER STREAMFLOWS ALONG WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN RESERVOIR
STORAGE. COMBINED RESERVOIR STORAGE WAS ONLY 67 PERCENT OF AVERAGE
IN THE UPPER COLORADO RIVER BASIN AND 87 PERCENT OF AVERAGE IN THE
SOUTH PLATTE BASIN AT THE END OF APRIL.

STREAM VOLUME FORECASTS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO INCREASED
SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE IMPROVED SNOWPACK. FOLLOWING ARE MAY THROUGH
JULY FORECASTS AT SELECTED LOCATIONS:

                             MOST PROBABLY FORECAST
                           RUNOFF     VOLUME      PERCENT
STREAM AND STATION         PERIOD     1000 AF      OF AVG
__________________         ______     _______     _______
SOUTH PLATTE RIVER
 ANTERO RESERVOIR INFLOW   MAY-JUL       9          69
 SPINNEY MTN RES INFLOW    MAY-JUL      40          91
 11-MILE CANYON RES INFLOW MAY-JUL      40          89
 CHEESMAN LAKE INFLOW      MAY-JUL      76          88
 SOUTH PLATTE              MAY-JUL     132          85

BEAR CREEK
 EVERGREEN ABV             MAY-JUL      12.5        88
 MORRISON                  MAY-JUL      15.7        87

CLEAR CREEK
 GOLDEN                    MAY-JUL      87          87

ST VRAIN CREEK
 LYONS                     MAY-JUL      69          86

BOULDER CREEK
 ORODELL                   MAY-JUL      44          86

SOUTH BOULDER CREEK
 ELDORADO SPRINGS          MAY-JUL      32          91

BIG THOMPSON RIVER
 CANYON MOUTH              MAY-JUL      77          91

CACHE LA POUDRE
 CANYON MOUTH              MAY-JUL     192          91

NORTH PLATTE RIVER
 NORTHGATE                 MAY-JUL     155          83

COLORADO RIVER
 LAKE GRANBY               MAY-JUL     170          83
 KREMMLING                 MAY-JUL     610          78

WILLOW CREEK
 WILLOW CREEK RES          MAY-JUL      46         107

FRASER RIVER
 WINTER PARK               MAY-JUL      14          75

WILLIAMS FORK RIVER
 WILLIAMS FORK RES         MAY-JUL      68          76

BLUE RIVER
 DILLON RES                MAY-JUL     117          76
 GREEN MTN RES             MAY-JUL     190          75

MUDDY CREEK
 WOLFORD MTN RES BLW       MAY-JUL      40          87

THESE FORECASTS REFLECT NATURAL FLOW ONLY. ACTUAL OBSERVED FLOW WILL
LIKELY BE AFFECTED BY UPSTREAM WATER MANAGEMENT.

ADDITIONAL SUPPORTIVE INFORMATION (WEB ADDRESSES ARE IN LOWER CASE):
-VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOU FOR MORE LOCAL
WEATHER...CLIMATE AND STREAM INFORMATION.
-LONG RANGE PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURE OUTLOOKS ARE AVAILABLE AT
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREDICTIONS/.
-SNOWPACK AND RESERVOIR DATA ARE AVAILABLE FROM THE NATURAL
RESOURCES CONSERVATIONS SERVICE AT HTTP://WWW.CO.NRCS.USDA.GOV/SNOW/.
-THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR IS AVAILABLE AT
HTTP://DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/MONITOR.HTML.

$$
TH