254
FXUS65 KLKN 121027 CCA
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Elko NV
327 AM PDT Sun May 12 2024

.SYNOPSIS...A weak upper level trough may allow for isolated
showers or a thunderstorm across western Humboldt county this
afternoon and evening. Other locations will see quiet weather
conditions as high pressure remains across the region. A weak
upper-level disturbance moving through the area Monday will bring
a few showers and afternoon thunderstorms to portions of central
and northeastern Nevada but significant precipitation is not
anticipated. Lingering showers will exit central Nevada Tuesday
with highs in the 70s and 80s with lows in the 40s for the rest
of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Monday night. Skies are clear over
northern and central Nevada this morning. This is due to an upper
level ridge moving across the region today. Skies will be mostly
sunny, though later in the afternoon clouds will be on the
increase. A weak wave is being analyzed in the flow that will move
in Humboldt county that will aid in the development of very
isolated showers or a thunderstorm or two. Highs today will be in
the 70s to low 80s with light winds. Sprinkles or virga can be
expected along the border with Idaho this evening, otherwise, most
locations will see mostly clear skies with lows in the 40s.

Models show the shortwave trough moving across the area for
Monday. This will bring isolated to scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms for the afternoon. Winds will be breezy in the north
with gusts to 25 mph. Highs will be in the 70s and 80s. Some light
showers will continue during the early evening hours but are
expected to dissipate as lows dip into the 40s.

.LONG TERM...Tuesday through Sunday.

Shortwave energy dropping through eastern Oregon and western
Idaho on Tuesday will produce gusty northwesterly winds of
10-15mph gusting 20-30mph across most of northern Nevada. Weaker
flow over central NV on Tuesday will be slightly unstable, with a
15-25% chance of light rain showers and at 10-15% chance of
thunderstorms across White Pine county and northern Nye county
into early Tuesday evening. Winds across central NV will become
gusty by the mid afternoon hours with winds reaching NW10-15mph
gusting 15-20mph. Well above normal temperatures on Tuesday, with
most locations in the 70s to low 80s which will be roughly 10
degrees above normal. Winds, showers and thunderstorm activity
will all diminish Tuesday evening.

Wednesday and Thursday are expected to be dry and storm-free
across the entire CWA. Some uncertainty Friday into next weekend
with respect to thunderstorm development, which for now is in the
10-15% range each afternoon. Temperatures remain well above normal
through next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions expected for the next 24 hours with
light winds of 5KT to 15KT at all terminals. Cumulus build-ups
will develop during the afternoon but the probability of showers
remains below 10%.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...Snowmelt is likely to accelerate through early next
week as temperatures continue to climb over the next couple of
days. This will keep streams, creeks, and rivers elevated.
Spring-time temperatures with daytime highs in the 70s and
possibly the low 80s for some locales. Overnight lows across the
high elevations are also likely to remain above freezing, further
aiding snow melt. Otherwise, dry conditions are expected SUnday
with a few showers across the area Monday. However, the
probability of wetting rains Monday is less than 10% even in
higher terrain so substantial hydrologic impact from falling
precipitation is not expected. Dry conditions are expected
statewide Tuesday through the latter part of the week.

The Humboldt River at Comus is in action stage and is forecast to
remain in action stage for the next few days.

Wildhorse Dam Reservoir currently resides in action stage and is forecast
to remain in action stage for the next several days.

Other rivers and creeks that are showing signs of increased flows
are Lamoille Creek and the Jarbidge River. Though stream gage
heights are not at bankfull stage, these streams are flowing fast
and cold. With the warm temperatures expected this week, these
stream heights will continue rising.

&&

.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

86/96/92