Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000
FXUS61 KBOX 282349
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
649 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY BUT COLDER WEATHER OVERSPREADS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH A LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE. BEHIND THE
FRONT MUCH MILDER WEATHER IS ON TAP FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A POLAR
FRONT WILL THEN SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION LATER MON...BRINGING A
RETURN TO COLDER WEATHER TUE. A WARM FRONT MAY THEN BRING ANOTHER
RISK OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
649 PM UPDATE...

3.9 MICRON IMAGERY DEPICTING LOWER CLOUDS OVER THE SNOWPACK THE
BEST THIS EVENING. WE ARE LOOKING AT A BAND OF LOWER CLOUDS
CONNECTED ALL THE BACK TO THE GREAT LAKES SPILLING EAST OF THE
SPINE OF THE BERKSHIRES. FOR MOST LOCATIONS...THAT WILL MEAN
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING. COLUMN EVENTUALLY DRIES OUT
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO EAT AWAY AT
WHATEVER LOWER CLOUDS ARRIVE FROM THE WEST.

ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE NEAR-TERM FORECAST TO BRING IT
BACK IN LINE WITH OBSERVED TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

EXPECT THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE FALL TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVERHEAD...CALM WINDS...CLEAR SKIES...AND FRESH SNOWPACK.
THE MAV GUIDANCE IS SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER THAN THE MET
GUIDANCE...BUT NOT SURE I COMPLETELY BUY INTO THE MAV TEMPS...SO
BLENDED IT WITH THE MET BUT WENT A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN THE
BLEND. THIS GAVE LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE
NORTHWESTERN ZONES AND TEENS EVERYWHERE ELSE AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST AND ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE SLOWLY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
GREAT LAKES.  QUIET BUT COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED AGAIN WITH LIGHT
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS.  LATE IN THE DAY AS WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST
EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* MUCH MILDER SUNDAY AND MONDAY
* RETURN TO CHILLY WEATHER TUESDAY
* SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL GUIDANCE EVALUATION...

DECENT LARGE SCALE AGREEMENT AMONG THE 28/12Z GUIDANCE SUITE.
RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK CALLS
THE TIMING OF VARIOUS FEATURES INTO QUESTION. THE USA MODELS
MAINTAIN A FLATTER MID LEVEL FLOW LONGER THAN THE INTERNATIONAL
GUIDANCE. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE HANDLING OF A POTENT SHORTWAVE
PROJECTED TO ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC. SINCE THIS IS A
DAY 6/DAY 7 PROBLEM...WILL FAVOR THE CONSENSUS BLEND UNTIL THE
ENERGY OF THIS SHORTWAVE CAN BE BETTER SAMPLED.

DAILY SENSIBLE WEATHER DETAILS...

SATURDAY NIGHT...WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. THUS INCREASING
CLOUDS WITH THE CHANCE OF SOME SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIPITATION. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ANY LIGHT PRECIP WOULD BEGIN AS LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES THEN TRANSITIONING TO SLEET...AND PERHAPS SOME FREEZING
RAIN...BEFORE COMPLETING THE TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN. COLUMN
STRUGGLES TO SATURATE SO ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIGHT AND
SPOTTY. HENCE NOT A HIGH IMPACT EVENT.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BRIEFLY BUILDS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES AND THIS PUSHES MILDER AIR NORTHWARD INTO NEW
ENGLAND WITH HIGHS INTO THE 50S ACROSS RI AND EASTERN MA BOTH
DAYS. A POLAR COLD FRONT MAY YIELD THE RISK FOR A FEW RAIN SHOWERS
/POSSIBLE ENDING AS SNOW SHOWERS/ LATE MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY...1042 MB HIGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED POLAR AIRMASS SETTLE OVER
NEW ENGLAND...WITH TEMPS NEARLY 20 DEGS COLDER THAN MONDAY.

WEDNESDAY...OVERRUNNING PRECIP POSSIBLE WITH A WINTRY MIX GIVEN COLD
AIR WILL INITIALLY BE SLOW TO DISLODGE.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...TREND IS FOR DRIER BUT A RETURN TO COLDER...
BUT SEASONABLE...WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS MOST OF TONIGHT. LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE HIGHER RIDGES OF WESTERN MA AND SOUTHERN NH.

SATURDAY...VFR.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...LOWERING CLOUDS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN WIDELY SCATTERED PCPN LATE AT
NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. LOW LEVEL WINDS...AROUND 2000 FEET...
WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY TO 40-45 KNOTS AND MAY CREATE
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR.

MONDAY...VFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE OR AT NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL SWITCH
TO NORTHWEST AFTER THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

TUESDAY...VFR WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS.

WEDNESDAY...SCATTERED MVFR WITH MAINLY SOUTHEAST WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...N-NW WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE MORNING WITH GUSTS UP
TO 25 KT MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN AREAS. SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD AGAIN
UP TO 5-6 FT MAINLY OVER THE OPEN WATERS. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY GUST
TO 25 FT ACROSS CAPE COD BAY AND NANTUCKET SOUND AROUND MIDDAY SO
HAVE PUT UP SMALL CRAFT THERE. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATE
IN THE DAY.

TONIGHT...W-NW WINDS WILL DIMINISH EARLY TONIGHT BUT SEAS WILL
REMAIN AOA 5 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT BEFORE FINALLY
SUBSIDING.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY NIGHT...SMALL RISK OF A FEW SHOWERS OF RAIN OR SNOW AS A
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE.

SUNDAY...WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE REGION. MODEST SW
WIND DEVELOPS...BUT MAINLY DRY WEATHER.

MONDAY...COLD FRONT REMAINS WEST OF NEW ENGLAND...SO MODEST SW
WINDS CONTINUE.

TUESDAY...COLD HIGH PRES DRIFTS ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. LIGHTER NORTHEAST WINDS WITH GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING SEAS.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER NORTHEAST INTO THE
MARITIMES. WINDS SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY.
RELATIVELY LIGHT SEAS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ231-232-
     256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ250-251-
     254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/RLG
NEAR TERM...BELK/RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/RLG
MARINE...BELK/RLG


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