Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBOX 250752
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
352 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...FOLLOWED BY WARM
AND MUGGY CONDITIONS LASTING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE THREAT FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FROM LATE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
345 AM UPDATE...AN ILL-DEFINED WARM FRONT STRETCHED FROM EASTERN
MICHIGAN SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS TO NEAR DELMARVA
EARLY THIS MORNING. HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS COVERED SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AHEAD OF IT. THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND ACROSS
OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON.

THE CLOUD COVER...ALTHOUGH PRESENT...IS NOT EXPECTED TO BLOCK OUT
ALL SUNSHINE. THUS THE WARM LATE-MAY SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S. 925 MB TEMPS HIT 17C ON
SUNDAY AND THEY ARE FORECAST TO HIT 20C THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE GONE
A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE. EXCEPTIONS WILL BE ON CAPE COD
AND THE ISLANDS WHERE IT WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S AND
ON THE TIP OF CAPE ANN WHERE A SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH WIND OFF THE
COOL OCEAN WILL LIKELY HOLD TEMPERATURES TO THE 70S. THICKER CLOUD
COVER COULD HOLD TEMPERATURES BACK...BUT AM THINKING THAT WOULD
MAINLY BE OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WHERE THE BETTER LIFTING
PROCESSES ARE. ALTHOUGH THE GFS HAS SOME PRECIPITATION FOR
NORTHERN MA...AM EXPECTING A COMPLETELY DRY MEMORIAL DAY.

ALL MODELS SHOW THE GRADIENT TIGHTENING UP AND SOUTHWEST WINDS
INCREASING TO 30-35 KNOTS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. BUFKIT SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD OF WIND GUSTS TO 20-28 MPH OVER LAND AREAS WITHIN AN
HOUR OR TWO OF 5 PM. THE WIND GUSTS REMAIN LESS THAN 20 KNOTS OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS DUE TO A PRONOUNCED INVERSION NEAR THE SURFACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH OVERNIGHT WILL HELP
INCREASE DEWPOINTS TO THE UPPER 50S AND ALLOW OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN IN THE 60S. A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET
OF AROUND 40 KNOTS AT 925 MB WILL BE JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE BUT
THE AIR SHOULD BE DECOUPLED ENOUGH TO PREVENT STRONG WIND GUSTS AT
THE GROUND. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING ALONG THE SOUTH
COAST/CAPE COD/ISLANDS. VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER ALONG THE
MA/NH BORDER. AGAIN...MOST OF THE ENERGY WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH.

TUESDAY...SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND REMAINS IN INCREASINGLY WARM AND
MOIST AIR FLOW AROUND A BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. HIGH CLOUDS
IN THE MORNING MAY THIN ALLOWING SUNSHINE FOR A TIME. IT WILL BE
BREEZY AND VERY WARM. WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS HOLDING IN THE 60S...IT
WILL NOT TAKE LONG FOR TEMPERATURES TO ZOOM INTO THE 80S...MAXING
OUT IN THE UPPER 80S ESPECIALLY IN THE CONNECTICUT AND MERRIMACK
VALLEYS...BUT STILL UPPER 60S AND 70S AT THE SOUTH COAST/CAPE COD/
ISLANDS. LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...THERE COULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY
IN NORTHWEST CT AND WESTERN MA TO POP SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
WE HAVE A 20 TO 30 PERCENT PROBABILITY IN THOSE AREAS...BUT
REMAINING DRY IN EASTERN SECTIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS
 - THREAT OF MARINE STRATUS / FOG ALONG THE S COAST
 - SHOWER / THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BEGINNING LATE WEDNESDAY
 - THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER
 - POTENTIAL LULL IN ACTIVITY FRIDAY
 - ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS / THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE WEEKEND

*/ DISCUSSION...

TUESDAY NIGHT - WEDNESDAY NIGHT: RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY
DEAMPLIFIES ALLOWING MID-LEVEL ENERGY ALONG WITH LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
SW-CONVERGENT FLOW AND RRQ OF AN UPPER-LEVEL JET TO SLINK SE TOWARDS
SNE. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES INCREASE. INITIAL ACTIVITY LOOKS
TO DEVELOP ACROSS PA / UPSTATE NY BY AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HEATING.
FOCUS APPEARS TO BE ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY PARALLEL WITH LOW-
LEVEL THETA-E/INSTABILITY AXES PRESSING E WITH THE WSW STEERING FLOW
INTO N/W NEW ENGLAND LATE INTO THURSDAY MORNING. LIKELY SOME SEVERE
TO THE W. OUTCOMES UNCERTAIN FOR HERE. PER BUFKIT CAPPING INVERSION
ALONG WITH LOW- TO MID-LEVEL DRY AIR LINGERS. H925-85 SW-FLOW IS
DIVERGENT. SHOWER ACTIVITY LIKELY PUSHES E INTO THE FORECAST AREA
BUT LOSES ITS PUNCH AS IT DOES SO. SHOWERS POTENTIALLY LINGERING
INTO THE FOLLOWING MORNING. WITH ANTICIPATED ELEVATED INSTABILITY
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. OTHERWISE... WARM /
MUGGY CONDITIONS WITH S-FLOW OF HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR N...THOUGH MID-
TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD DECKS MAY LIMIT HEATING. MARINE STRATUS / FOG
LIKELY TO BE AN ISSUE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR S/SE-
COASTAL COMMUNITIES AS MOISTURE POOLS BENEATH A STOUT WARM-DRY-
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.

THURSDAY - THURSDAY NIGHT: MAIN DRIVING FORCE OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY
AND ATTENDANT JET-STREAK LIFTS NE RESULTING IN A COOL FRONT PUSHING
SE OUT OF CANADA TO BECOME DIFFUSE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS IN
ADDITION TO POSSIBLE CLOUD COVER LEFT-OVER FROM WEDNESDAY PUTS INTO
QUESTION OF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THOUGH THE BOUNDARY-
LAYER MAY NOT DESTABILIZE...MID-LEVEL COOLING LENDING TO INCREASED
ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND THE SUGGESTION OF PERHAPS SOME MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL FORCING /IN ADDITION TO THE CONSENSUS OF DECENT THETA-E
AND INSTABILITY AXWS ACROSS SNE/ YIELDS CONTINUED CHANCE SHOWER /
THUNDERSTORM THREAT. DECENT SHEAR SO A SEVERE THREAT IS POSSIBLE BUT
HAVE GREATER CONFIDENCE TOWARDS A HEAVY RAIN THREAT. PWATS IN EXCESS
OF 1.5-INCHES WITH FREEZING LEVEL HEIGHTS OF 11-12 KFT. CONTINUING
WITH A WARM-MUGGY THEME WITH RESPECT TO CONDITIONS AS WELL AS MARINE
STRATUS / FOG BEING AN ISSUE ALONG THE S/SE-COAST.

FRIDAY - FRIDAY NIGHT: DISCREPANCIES AMONG FORECAST GUIDANCE. WHILE
THE ENVIRONMENT LOOKS PRIME FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...
NOT A LOT OF FORCING APPARENT. OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BE
INFLUENTIAL AS RIDGING ENHANCES ALOFT EVER SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF A
WEEKEND DISTURBANCE. BIGGEST DISCREPANCY CENTERS AROUND MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY TO WHICH GFS BUFKIT PROFILES SUGGEST CAN DESTABILIZE.
WILL KEEP WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE PERIOD.

WEEKEND - EARLY NEXT WEEK: AGREED UPON THAT ENERGY DIVING S ROUND
THE N CANADIAN VORTEX MEETS UP WITH ENERGY OUT OF THE CENTRAL CONUS
PUSHING A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY S ACROSS THE NE CONUS. UNCLEAR AS
TO ITS EVOLUTION...WHETHER IT STALLS. FORECAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
BECOMES COMPLICATED. OF CERTAINTY IS THAT A PRIMED ENVIRONMENT LOOKS
TO EXIST AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BENEATH DEEP-LAYER FORCING.
THIS SHOULD YIELD LIKELY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. BUT WITH
TIMING AND LONGEVITY UNCERTAIN WILL KEEP WITH CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...VFR. ANY PATCHES OF MVFR VSBY IN FOG ALONG THE S COAST/
CAPE COD/ISLANDS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD DISSIPATE BY MID
MORNING. SW WINDS MAY GUST TO 25 KT OVER THE INTERIOR 20-23Z.

TONIGHT...VFR. MAY SEE PATCHY FOG WITH MVFR VSBYS LATE S COAST/
CAPE COD/ISLANDS. SW WINDS WILL BE UP TO 40 KT AT 1000-2000 FT
ABOVE THE SURFACE. NOT QUITE STRONG ENOUGH FOR LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR TO BE INSERTED INTO TERMINALS...BUT IMPORTANT TO BE AWARE
OF.

TUESDAY...VFR. COULD STILL HAVE SOME PATCHY MVFR VSBYS IN FOG NEAR
THE S COAST...MAINLY EARLY. CHANCE OF A TSTM WITH MVFR VSBYS IN
NW CT AND WESTERN MA...INCLUDING BDL/BAF AND IN THE BERKSHIRES
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...MODERATE
CONFIDENCE.

BREEZY SW-FLOW WITH 20 KT GUSTS AT TIMES. IFR STRATUS / FOG POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE S/SE-COAST. INCREASING CHANCES FOR -SHRA/TSRA BEGINNING
LATE WEDNESDAY TO W...MOST EVERYWHERE THURSDAY...CONCLUDING EARLY
FRIDAY. TEMPO MVFR-IFR WITH ANY ACTIVITY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...SW WINDS CONTINUE...GUSTING UP TO 20 KT ESPECIALLY IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON. SEAS MAINLY 2 TO 4 FT.

TONIGHT...SW WINDS INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT. EXPECTING LOW LEVEL
INVERSION TO PREVENT STRONGER WINDS ALOFT FROM MAKING IT DOWN TO
THE SEA SURFACE. SEAS BUILD TO 5-6 FT ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS THIS
EVENING AND THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS THROUGH
TUE.

TUESDAY...GUSTY SW WIND FLOW OF 20 TO 25 KT CONTINUES OVER THE
OUTER WATERS...AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF A BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM. HAVE INCLUDED NANTUCKET SOUND IN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR TUE AS WIND GUSTS COULD REACH 20 TO 25 KT THERE AS WELL.
A FEW FOG PATCHES WITH RESTRICTED VISIBILITY POSSIBLE ON THE
SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...MODERATE
CONFIDENCE.

PERSISTENT SW-FETCH WITH GUSTS AROUND 20-25 KTS AT TIMES.
STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE NEAR-SHORE WATERS. WAVE HEIGHTS IN
EXCESS OF 5-FEET WITH SWELL AND WIND-WAVE MOSTLY ON THE OUTER
WATERS BUT GETTING INTO THE S INNER SOUNDS. DENSE FOG ANTICIPATED
LENDING TO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
EXPECT DEWPOINTS TO SLOWLY BUT STEADILY RISE INTO THE 50S TODAY.
SW WINDS OF 10-20 MPH ARE EXPECTED... HOWEVER THERE COULD BE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF 25 MPH GUSTS WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO OF 5 PM.
FORECASTED MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BE FROM 35 TO 40 PERCENT OVER
THE INTERIOR TODAY...AND 45 TO 55 PERCENT ON THE SOUTH
COAST/CAPE COD/ISLANDS. WITH THE INCREASING HUMIDITY...EXPECT
LOWERED FIRE WEATHER RISK SO WILL NOT BE ISSUING A STATEMENT AT
THIS TIME.

ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE WARMER ON TUE...DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO BE RISING
KEEPING MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FROM 40 TO 50 PERCENT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ232.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FIELD/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...FIELD
SHORT TERM...FIELD
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...FIELD/SIPPRELL
MARINE...FIELD/SIPPRELL
FIRE WEATHER...FIELD


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