Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 301138 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 738 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY AND WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK ON FRIDAY. THIS UPPER LOW WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 600 AM EDT THURSDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING SOME RAIN SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTH CENTRAL VERMONT. HAVE UPDATED THE ZONE FORECASTS FOR THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES TO THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 450 AM EDT THURSDAY...MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING AS WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. SEE BREAKS IN THIS CLOUDY COVER ACROSS SOUTHEAST ONTARIO...SO COULD SEE SOME PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY. CLOUD COVER KEEPING TEMPERATURES FAIRLY MILD ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT...SO WILL SEE SOME MILD TEMPERATURES AGAIN TODAY...BUT NOT AS WARM AS YESTERDAY. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 450 AM EDT THURSDAY...MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...AS WIND FLOW WILL BE LIGHT AS WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION. ON FRIDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TAKING A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY EARLY SATURDAY. THUS...THIS TAKES THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. THIS IS A CHANGE FROM A FEW DAYS AGO WITH HAD THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR OVER OR REGION. MODEL SHOWING THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK...ESPECIALLY THE ADIRONDACKS AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. ON SATURDAY...MODELS DEVELOP A LOW PRESSURE AREA OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND THEN TAKE IT NORTHEAST WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL JUST HAVE LOW TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS. EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE MAINLY IN THE 40S ON SATURDAY...WITH THE UPPER 30S OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ON SATURDAY. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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AS OF 402 AM EDT THURSDAY...MODELS HAVE COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HANDLING POTENT S/W ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED DIGGING TROF AND DEVELOPING SFC LOW PRES ON SAT INTO SUNDAY. CONSENSUS SHOWS DEEP FULL LATITUDE TROF ACRS THE EASTERN SEABOARD AT 12Z SUNDAY MORNING WITH SFC LOW PRES DEVELOPING 50 TO 75 MILES EAST OF THE 40/70 BENCHMARK. THIS IS AN UNFAVORABLE TRACK FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIP ACRS OUR CWA...AS BEST MOISTURE/DYNAMICS WL BE EAST OF OUR CWA...HOWEVER BOTH GFS/ECMWF SHOW SOME MID LVL RH AND BACKSIDE VORT SLIDING ACRS OUR CWA LATE SAT INTO SUNDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH NORTHERLY WINDS WL SUPPORT A FEW LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACRS OUR CWA. STILL LOOKING AT A LIGHT ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE IN THE MTNS BY SUNDAY MORNING. PROGGED 85H TEMPS DROP BTWN -7C AND -9C BY 12Z SUNDAY...ON BRISK NORTH WINDS. EXPECTING HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S MTNS TO M30S/L40S VALLEYS ON SUNDAY...WITH NORTH WINDS AT 15 TO 25 MPH. SUNDAY NIGHT-WEDS...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NE CONUS...AS TROF LIFTS INTO EASTERN CANADA. THIS WL RESULT IN RISING HGHTS AND WARMING THERMAL PROFILES AS SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS ACRS THE MID ATLANTIC. DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH GRADIENT ACRS OUR CWA...BUT VERY DRY AIR ALOFT. THINKING LOWS WL RANGE FROM NEAR 20F SLK/COLDER VALLEYS TO NEAR 30S ACRS THE CPV. IF WINDS ARE LIGHTER THAN PROGGED...TEMPS COULD FALL INTO THE TEENS AT OUR COLDER LOCATIONS. LLVL WAA RESULTS IN PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARMING TO NEAR 0C BY 00Z TUES AND BTWN 2-4C BY 00Z WEDS AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM. HIGHS WL WARM INTO THE M/U 30S MTNS TO M/U 40S VALLEYS ON MONDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS. EXPECT SHARP INVERSION ON MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...AS WARMING ALOFT OCCURS. LOWS WL RANGE FROM M20S TO M30S ON MONDAY NIGHT...COLDEST TEMPS WL BE ACRS THE NEK OF VT...WITH SOME INCREASING CLOUDS OVER THE SLV/DACKS. NEXT SYSTEM WL PRODUCE MORE CLOUDS ON TUESDAY WITH CHCS FOR RAIN ACRS NORTHERN NY BY LATE TUES INTO WEDS. TEMPS WITH SOUTHWEST FLW WL WARM INTO THE U40S TO M50S FOR TUES/WEDS AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 30S AND 40S.
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&& .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...WATER VAPOR SHOWS WEAK S/W AND ASSOCIATED MID LVL MOISTURE MOVING ACRS OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN TAF SITES ATTM...WITH SOME SPRINKLES/FLURRIES SHOWING UP ON LATEST RADAR IMAGERY. CRNT OBS SHOW VFR AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT IFR CIGS AT SLK. SOUNDINGS CONT TO SUPPORT IFR CIGS AT SLK THRU 14Z...BEFORE LIFTING TO MVFR THEN VFR BY THIS AFTN. ELSEWHERE...COULD SEE MVFR CIGS DEVELOP AT MPV THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH NW FLW BEHIND SFC BOUNDARY. REST OF TAF SITES WL EXPERIENCE VFR CONDITIONS WITH CIGS HGHTS BTWN 4000 AND 6000 FEET. LOOK FOR NORTHWEST WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS TODAY...BECOME LIGHT TRRN DRIVEN TONIGHT WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING. OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... MOISTURE WL APPROACH OUR WESTERN TAF SITES BY 12Z FRIDAY...WITH SOME LIGHT VALLEY RAIN AND MTN SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY AFTN INTO SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY AT MSS/SLK. EXPECT PLENTY OF CLOUDS ON SATURDAY WITH SPRINKLES AND FLURRIES...AND SOME MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY AT MPV/SLK. IN ADDITION...AS SFC LOW PRES DEVELOPS OFF- SHORE...BREEZY NORTH WINDS WL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE ALIGNED NORTH TO SOUTH VALLEYS.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WGH NEAR TERM...WGH SHORT TERM...WGH LONG TERM...TABER AVIATION...TABER

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