Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 181128 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 628 AM EST Wed Jan 18 2017 .SYNOPSIS... The wintry mix will taper off during the day today, with most precipitation limited to the mountains by tonight. Low pressure south of Long Island early this morning will move slowly eastward south of New England today. A ridge of high pressure will slowly build into the north country on Thursday and will remain over the region through this weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 617 AM EST Wednesday...Forecast tracking along so far so good. Will send updated grids/text products right at 12z to expire the advisory. Otherwise precipitation continuing across the forecast area. Mostly snow from northern Adirondacks into Lake Champlain Valley eastward, with some rain in St. Lawrence County and freezing rain at Massena in cold NE wind and 28 degree surface temp. Boundar layer winds have turned westerly, and Froude number less than 0.5 based on local study indicate blocked flow and snow to continue on western slopes of Green Mountains for at least next several hours. Snow winding down overnight, radar coverage has definitely changed from organized band of snow when the mid- shift started to more of a spotty coverage. Weak surface low moving up the St. Lawrence Valley is starting to fizzle out as 500 mb shortwave trough reaches the coast and spins up surface low south of Long Island. Later today the forecast area will be under shortwave ridging from about 18z to 06z with little organized ascent and only orographic lift continuing precip chances. A second 500 mb shortwave trough will move across the region 06-12z Thursday to continue precip chances mainly in northern higher terrain. Precip type: Temperatures a few degrees either side of freezing, although wetbulb effects making precip type mostly snow. Temperatures today will warm above freezing most everywhere, with wintry mix of sleet/snow/rain. Freezing rain and any significant icing less of a threat from here on out with warming temperatures. Freezing drizzle a possibility mainly southern areas of the forecast area this afternoon through this evening as daytime heating cools off and thermal profile not conducive to ice crystals/snow growth. Further north thermal profile colder and more conducive to snow. Only trace amounts of icing. No airmass change with the passage of the low, and temperatures will see little diurnal change from highs in the 30s and lows 25 to 30. Saturated below about 700 mb and overcast skies for the duration of the near term period. Although heaviest wintry precip has ended will continue headlines for the time being as snow continues and will affect the morning drive. Northern NY advisory expires 7 am and will evaluate with next update. Rest of the area will continue to 1 pm. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 314 AM EST Wednesday...Generally looking at improving conditions for the Thursday/Friday timeframe with some lingering upslope light rain/snow showers focused over the high terrain diminishing Thursday, and strong 500mb ridging building in aloft for Thursday night and Friday, offering dry conditions to end the work week. Even though strong subsidence will be shifting in with the ridge, forecast soundings are indicating abundant moisture trapped beneath a low-level inversion holding tough through much of Friday and potentially longer into the weekend. Thus, have adjusted sky cover to indicate cloudier skies and subsequently lower temperatures slightly with highs both days in the mid/upper 30s and lows Thursday night in the mid 20s to low 30s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 314 AM EST Wednesday...Aforementioned upper ridge and surface high pressure continue to dominate the North Country`s weather going into the weekend with decaying shortwave energy shifting out of the central CONUS into the Ohio Valley falling apart as it hits the ridge and providing nothing more than some clouds. Subsidence aloft looks to finally win out over low level moisture as well so looking at partly cloudy skies through the weekend along with above normal temperatures in the upper 30s to low 40s. Next potential system looks to impact the region early next week as a shortwave trough pulling east out of the lee of the Rockies Saturday night develops a strong surface low over the southeast states Sunday, then tracks northeastward along the east coast during the Monday/Tuesday timeframe. Ptype could be an issue with this one with blocking high pressure in place over Nova Scotia keeping low levels close to or below freezing, especially east of the Green Mountains Monday evening, but eventually a strong low/mid level jet pushes a warm front through the region Monday night transitioning precip to rain. At least that`s what the models are telling us now, but there`s lots of time for things to change so stay tuned. For certain though, temperatures look to remain very mild by late- January standards with highs continuing to push into the 40s, and lows in the 20s/30s. && .AVIATION /12Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/... Through 02Z Thursday...MVFR ceilings most locations except LIFR KMSS. Low level moisture will remain locked in the area during the TAF period and see little improvement in ceiling heights. Mainly snow to continue over most of the area except KMSS where northeast flow locks in upper 20s temperatures and light freezing rain/mist. Precipitation to gradually come to an end this afternoon when upper trough moves out of area. Winds will be southerly at 5-10 knots for most of the area with KRUT seeing some gusts around 20 knots. KMSS will be the lone exception as northeasterly flow stays locked in though most of the period with winds 05-15 knots. 12Z Thursday through 00Z Friday...VFR with brief MVFR/IFR rain/snow showers. 00Z Friday through 00Z Monday...VFR, as a ridge of high pressure will be over the region. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for VTZ006>012-017>019. NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for NYZ029- 087. Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for NYZ028-030-031-034-035. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hanson NEAR TERM...Hanson SHORT TERM...Lahiff LONG TERM...Lahiff AVIATION...Hanson is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.