Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KBTV 201952 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 352 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A MOSTLY CLOUDY AND BREEZY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT CLEARS THE REGION OVERNIGHT SUNDAY WITH UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY. THE BELOW- NORMAL TEMPS WILL BE BRIEF HOWEVER AS WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS THEN RETURN FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... AS OF 350 PM EDT SATURDAY...GUSTY AFTN ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH SKY COVER CONTINUING TO RANGE FROM FILTERED SUNSHINE ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS TO OVERCAST ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTHERN VT. STRONG LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLIES BETWEEN SHARP PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM RIDGING TO THE EAST AND APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES HELPING TO MAINTAIN THE GUSTS AND AREAS OF CLOUD COVER. I THINK THERE WILL BE SOME BREAKS ACROSS INTERIOR VT BUT WILL ONLY FILL BACK LATER IN THE EVENING IN AS LOW CLOUDS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND PASS NORTHWARD THROUGH A WEAKNESS IN AFOREMENTIONED SFC RIDGING. CLOUDS WILL ALSO FILL BACK IN LATER THIS EVENING WITH WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. REGARDING POPS/WX: CURRENT RADAR SHOWS A LINE OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES NOW MOVING ACROSS THE OTTAWA VALLEY...HOWEVER DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW LIKELY TO KEEP THIS ACTIVITY NORTH AND WEST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY. HOWEVER POPS INCREASE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK UP TO LIKELY BETWEEN 06-12Z WITH THE COLD FRONT. WITH ONGOING LIGHTNING TAKING PLACE AND AS AN AXIS OF SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE SHOWALTER INDICES ASSOCIATED WITH 850 MB WARM ADVECTION EVIDENT IN NAM/GFS GUIDANCE OVERSPREADS NORTHERN NEW YORK...HAVE KEPT IN SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OF THUNDER. RELATIVELY MILD NIGHT FOR LOWS AS GUSTY SOUTHWEST FLOW...INCREASING CLOUDS AND WARM ADVECTION KEEPS TEMPS FROM FALLING SIGNIFICANTLY. LOWS LIKELY TO BE COOLEST IN NORTHEAST/EAST VT WITH THE COLDER START /GENERALLY 50S/. IN THE VALLEYS OPTED TO ADD A COUPLE DEGREES EVEN TO THE WARMER METMOS GUIDANCE...YIELDING LOW-MID 60S LOWS. && .SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 349 PM EDT SATURDAY... FOR SUNDAY: MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. EXPECT A RATHER SOLID LINE OF SHOWERS/POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER TO BE ONGOING ACROSS ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY/ADIRONDACKS. COLD FRONT ITSELF LIKELY TO MAKE SLOW EASTWARD INROADS...NOT BRINGING LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY UNTIL THE AFTN HOURS. THOUGH 850 TEMPS CONTINUE WARMING TO +15C MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES LIKELY TO PREVAIL. HIGHS TO RANGE LOW-MID 70S FOR VT AND ONLY UPPER 60S/AROUND 70 FOR NORTHERN NY. SUNDAY NIGHT: COLD FRONT FINALLY MOVES THROUGH VT OVERNIGHT. LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT TAPER TO CHANCE/LIKELY. HIGHEST POPS BECOME MORE CLOSELY TIED TO OROGRAPHY OVERNIGHT. STRONG POST-FRONTAL NORTHWESTERLY CAA /850 TEMPS FALL TO AROUND +4 TO +7C/ CONTRIBUTES TO LOW FROUDE NUMBERS FOCUSING LEFTOVER SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS. STORM TOTAL QPF WITH THE FRONT RANGES FROM .75-.8" ACROSS ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND ADRIONDACKS /MUCH OF THAT FALLING SUN AFTN/ TO A MIN OF A TENTH OR SO IN SOUTHEAST VT. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S ACROSS VT AND UPPER 40S ACROSS NORTHERN NY. MONDAY: LOOKS TO BE A COOL DAY AS THERMAL TROUGH ALOFT GRADUALLY BUILDS INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE. CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL CAA /850 TEMPS FALLING BELOW ZERO/ WILL OFFSET ANY DIURNAL HEATING ONCE INITIAL CLOUDY SKIES AND MTN SHOWERS BREAK. HIGHS LOOK TO STRUGGLE TO CLIMB EVEN A COUPLE DEGREES FROM OVERNIGHT LOWS...UPPER 40S/LOW 50S FOR ADIRONDACKS/NORTHERN NY TO MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS VT. HIGHS SOME 10-13 DEGREES COLDER THAN CLIMO AND NORTHWEST WINDS MAKING IT FEEL COLDER THAN THAT. MONDAY NIGHT: CLOUDS CONTINUE TO CLEAR AS SFC RIDGING BUILDS IN. I HAVEN`T PUT IN ANY RADIATIONAL RIVER VALLEY FOG BUT CERTAINLY POSSIBLE PENDING CLEARING. DRY WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 349 PM EDT SATURDAY...IDEA OF A WARMING AND DRYING TREND REMAINS ON TRACK IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA AND MOVES VERY LITTLE...THUS THE REASON FOR THE DRY WEATHER. AT THE SAME TIME...LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE SUGGESTS WARMING TEMPERATURES EACH DAY UNDER PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. HIGHS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THEN READINGS WILL BE 4 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. && .AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...MVFR TO VFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD...BUT AN AREA OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO KMSS BY 10Z AND REACH KPBG AND KBTV BETWEEN 16Z AND 18Z. VFR VISIBILITIES WILL PERSIST DESPITE THE RAIN. GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 12Z WITH GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 30 KNOT RANGE. OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON SUNDAY...WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS. UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE WITH POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MAY SEE SOME PERIODS OF CONTINUING MVFR CEILINGS DURING SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY. GENERALLY TRENDING VFR MONDAY NIGHT ONWARD WITH DEVELOPING STRONG SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGE BY MID-WEEK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. && .MARINE... AS OF 315 PM SATURDAY...STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS LAKE CHAMPLAIN THIS EVENING AND RIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. SPEEDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KNOTS AT TIMES. WAVES WILL BUILD INTO THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE MAKING FOR ROUGH BOATING CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS BEFORE A COLD FRONT PASSES AND THE WINDS TURN NORTHWEST FROM 10 TO 20 KNOTS LATER SUNDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT AND LIKELY THROUGH SUNDAY. PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO NEAR TERM...LOCONTO SHORT TERM...LOCONTO LONG TERM...EVENSON AVIATION...BANACOS/EVENSON MARINE...LAHIFF/MUCCILLI

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.