Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 260157 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 957 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY ACCOMPANIED BY SOME SHOWERS AND HIGHER SUMMIT SNOW SHOWERS. PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH GENERALLY DRY WEATHER AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
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AS OF 951 PM EDT SATURDAY...VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MODERATE RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXITING ACROSS FAR EASTERN VERMONT AT 0145Z. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE LOW- LEVEL FLOW HAS TURNED SW-W WITH A FEW BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST. FOLLOWING A LULL OF SEVERAL HOURS...EXPECTATION IS FOR STRATUS TO RETURN LATE TONIGHT IN ASSOCATION WITH TRAILING UPR LOW AND MORE NWLY FLOW NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. AS FLOW TRENDS WEST/NORTHWESTERLY ALOFT LATER TONIGHT...FREEZING LEVELS WILL DROP TO AROUND 3000 FT OR SO AND SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE A BIT MORE IN THE WAY OF OROGRAPHIC ASCENT AS WELL. THUS...ANY OROGRAPHIC PRECIPIATION WILL MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW AT THE SUMMIT LEVEL OR SLIGHTLY BELOW. LOWS FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S BELOW THE 2000 FT LEVEL. MAY SEE A DUSTING TO AN INCH OF SNOW BY DAYBREAK ACROSS THE HIGHER SUMMITS. IN THE VALLEYS THROUGH THE REST OF TONIGHT...GENERALLY DRY WITH A BRIEF SPRINKLE OR TWO POSSIBLE. THE OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED W-NW SLOPES OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND CENTRAL TO NORTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING ANY ADDITIONAL MEASUARABLE RAINFALL OVERNIGHT. EARLY MORNING LOWS GENERALLY 39-44F AT ELEVATIONS BELOW 1000 FEET.
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&& .SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 345 PM EDT SATURDAY...FOR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING WE REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LOW WITH CYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT RESULTING IN PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND THE CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SUMMITS. FLOW WILL BECOME BLOCKED OVER TIME SUCH THAT SHOWER COVERAGE WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WHERE SOME LIGHT ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL STILL POSSIBLE ABOVE AROUND 2500 FT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40. IMPROVING CONDITIONS DURING MONDAY AS UPPER LOW MOVES AWAY FROM REGION UP THROUGH CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS ALLOWS FOR UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST ALONG WITH WEAK SURFACE RIDGE AS WELL. THE RESULT WILL BE DIMINISHED NORTHWEST FLOW. STILL SOME LINGERING CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST VERMONT WHERE A SPRINKLE WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPS NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. SOME CLOUDS MONDAY NIGHT AS RIDGE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA LATE. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 315 PM EDT SATURDAY...EXTENDED PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH AREA UNDER VERTICALLY STACKED RIDGE FROM SURFACE UP THROUGH 500 MB. RIDGE SHIFTS EAST DURING THE DAY TUES WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING AHEAD OF NEXT LOW. 850 MB TEMPS MAX OUT AROUND +12C DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. BUMPED UP MAX FORECASTS A BIT, BUT 850 TEMPS COULD SUPPORT TEMPS EVEN WARMER THAN THE 60S ALREADY FORECAST...WILL NEED TO WATCH TO SEE IF TREND PERSISTS. TIMING FOR COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING STILL ON TRACK. GFS AND ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT...FOR A QUICK HIT OF RAINFALL AT FROPA. LOW LEVEL WINDS TURN MORE WESTERLY/NORTHWEST TO BEGIN COLD AIR ADVECTION IN EARNEST. TEMPERATURES TREND DOWNWARD THROUGH REST OF EXTENDED PERIOD TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. WITH WEST TO NW FLOW AND LOW LEVEL HUMIDITY WILL GET SOME TERRAIN INFLUENCED RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LATE IN THE EXTENDED TOWARDS SATURDAY MODELS BRING DEEP TROUGH INTO THE EASTERN US WITH CUT OFF LOW SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. MODELS DIFFER WITH THIS FEATURE AS GFS KEEPS IT MORE PROGRESSIVE AND MOVING EAST IN NORTHERN STREAM...WHILE ECMWF DIGS IT FURTHER SOUTH. ECMWF HAS TRENDED TOWARD GFS SOLUTION BETWEEN 00 AND 12Z RUNS...AND GIVEN THIS TREND PUTTING MORE WEIGHT ON THE GFS FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. POPS COME UP TO CHANCE CATEGORY LATE FRIDAY AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. PRECIP TYPE TO START OFF AS RAIN ON FRIDAY THEN AS TEMPERATURES COOL FRIDAY NIGHT CHANGE TO SNOW DURING OVERNIGHT HOURS. && .AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...PRIMARILY VFR THIS EVENING WILL TREND DOWNWARD INTO AREAS OF VFR/MVFR LATER TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY. BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AND WILL EXIT ALL TAF SITES BY 02Z. VISIBILITIES ARE MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR IS POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...ONLY SOME SCATTERED TERRAIN-DRIVEN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL EARLY MORNING...MAINLY AT MPV/SLK. NEXT AREA OF SOMEWHAT MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND SECONDARY FRONT WILL AFFECT MSS/SLK AFTER 09Z AND LASTING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT...THE REST OF THE TAF SITES AFTER 12Z...BECOMING MORE TERRAIN- ORIENTED. CEILINGS WILL LOWER OVERNIGHT AND ON SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH EXPECTED TO REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY VFR AT BTV/PBG/RUT. MVFR WILL DEVELOP AT MSS/MPV/SLK...WITH A PERIOD OF IFR ALSO LIKELY SUNDAY MORNING AT SLK. GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW (5-10 KNOTS) THIS EVENING WILL TURN WESTERLY OVERNIGHT AND WEST/NORTHWESTERLY ON SUNDAY FROM 09-15 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-22 KNOTS. OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... 00Z MONDAY - 12Z MONDAY...A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR CONTINUES ASSOCIATED WITH LINGERING LOWER CEILINGS AND TERRAIN-DRIVEN SHOWERS. 12Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...VFR UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. 12Z TUESDAY - 18Z WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH SOME AREAS OF MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. 18Z WEDNESDAY - 00Z FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR CIGS IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RJS NEAR TERM...BANACOS SHORT TERM...RJS LONG TERM...HANSON AVIATION...MUCCILLI/HANSON

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