Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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663 FXUS61 KBTV 282331 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 731 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A closed upper low over the western Great Lakes will move slowly south into the Ohio River Valley tonight, and will linger there through Saturday. Meanwhile, a ridge of high pressure over eastern Quebec and Labrador will slowly build southwest into the region through Friday, with mostly fair and dry weather expected over the North Country. As the closed low moves back north into the Great Lakes this weekend, there will be increasing chances for rain showers from Friday night through this weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 731 PM EDT Wednesday...Going forecast in good shape with no real big changes needed at this time. There were a few showers earlier...but have since dissipated and not expecting any redevelopment for the rest of the night. Previous Discussion... For tonight, the upper low currently over the southern tip of Lake Michigan only dives slightly south into the Ohio River Valley, while a dirty ridge of high pressure over eastern Quebec and Labrador builds over portions of the northeast. I call it "dirty" because it won`t be your classic high pressure providing clearing skies, rather easterly flow off the Atlantic will persist with variable cloudiness expected through the overnight. This will make for a tricky min temp forecast as areas with more clouds will be warmer than those that are clearer. Have opted for a model blend approach, which will offer min temps generally close to climo ranging through the 40s in general, except a few upper 30s in the colder hollows of the Adirondacks and Northeast Kingdom. Thursday will be almost a repeat of today in regards to temps as southeasterly areas will once again only be in the low/mid 60s and areas northwest pushing into the low 70s. We`ll be under the ridge I mentioned above which will keep us dry, and most areas should see about the same amount of sunshine or more than we saw today. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 414 PM EDT Wednesday...Models continue to show ridge of high pressure over southern Quebec persisting Thursday night in to Friday, keeping mid-upper level cutoff low over the Ohio Valley to our south and west along with the bulk of the moisture and precipitation associated with it. Pieces of energy will continue to rotate about the low keeping clouds and slight POPs across south central Vermont and the Adirondacks Thursday night, increasing to low chance in extreme southern areas of the forecast area as the low gains slow momentum northward toward the Great Lakes region on Friday. Temperatures continue to be slightly above normal with light easterly flow. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 414 PM EDT Wednesday...The closed 500mb low will bring rain showers from south to north Friday night through the weekend as the low moves from the Great Lakes Region shifting northeastward Sunday night. Surface winds shift from the southeast to the south Friday night, continuing to shift Southwest and west Sunday night. Greater precip rates possible as the occluded front moves across the area Sunday. QPF totals through Saturday expected to be quarter inch or less, with an additional half inch possible Sunday. As the low pressure system lifts out of the area late Monday into Monday night, drier air will begin to filter in aloft. low level moisture will linger on Tuesday as high pressure returns to the region. && .AVIATION /00Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/... Through 00Z Thursday...VFR conditions are expected overall throughout the period with widely variable ceilings. The lone exception is MVFR ceilings at RUT right now which should last for a few more hours before clearing out for the rest of the night. Overnight, mid clouds will advance from the south which should mitigate any fog development. Winds will generally not be an issue in regards to strength, but will be very variable in direction for most stations. KMSS will again see gustier winds tomorrow with 10-20 knot northeasterlies while KRUT will see a similar period of gusty winds overnight tonight but from the southeast. Outlook 00z Thursday through Monday... 00z Thu - 12z Sat: VFR under an increasing mid/high deck. 12z Sat - 00z Tue: Mix of VFR/MVFR in scattered rain showers, mainly from 00z Sun onward. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Lahiff NEAR TERM...Evenson/Lahiff SHORT TERM...KGM LONG TERM...KGM AVIATION...Lahiff/MV is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.