Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 020805 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 405 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION BRINGING RAIN BY NOON. THE LOW WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST AND AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING AND RAIN WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH DRIER WEATHER...BUT UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES LATER IN THE WEEK WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 405 AM EDT MONDAY...THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH JUST A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE OR LIGHT SHOWERS THIS MORNING. TEMPS WILL REMAIN STEADY OVERNIGHT WITH CLOUDS. ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND ENERGY ARRIVES LATE MORNING ASSOCIATED TROF MOVING IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL REDEVELOP RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS OUR REGION BY NOON TODAY AND WILL TAPER OFF BETWEEN 5 AND 8 PM. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AXIS ACROSS OUR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN REGIONS WHERE UP TO ANOTHER HALF INCH OF RAIN WILL FALL WHILE ONLY A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED IN THE FAR NW/ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. HIGHEST POPS 80-100 %/CATEGORICAL WILL BE DURING MIDDAY THEN TAPERING OFF TOWARDS BY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY RISE A 5-10 DEGREES TODAY WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN EXPECTED. COOL HIGHS AGAIN TODAY IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50 WITH LIGHT WINDS IN MOST PLACES. TONIGHT THINGS WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT FOR THE MOST PART AS SHORT WAVE TROF MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. BUT EXPECTING CLOUDS TO PERSIST ALONG WITH SOME BLOCKED LIGHT UPSLOPE NORTHERLY FLOW. COULD ALSO BE A LINGERING SHOWER OR DRIZZLE ON THE NW SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS BUT NO SIGNIFICANT QPF. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME CLEARING WILL BE IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. LOW TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. && .SHORT TERM / TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 405 AM EDT...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY. MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE DRY...BUT THERE COULD BE SOME SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS OVER NORTHEAST AND SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT. TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS...UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. UPPER TROUGH OVER ONTARIO PROVINCE TUESDAY NIGHT WILL DIG SOUTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS ON WEDNESDAY. UPPER DIFFLUENCE IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE WILL DEVELOP OVER OUR AREA AND BEGIN TO ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK ON WEDNESDAY. DESPITE THE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 405 AM EDT MONDAY...MAIN ITEM THAT WILL AFFECT THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE THE UPPER LOW THAT DEVELOPS SOMEWHERE AROUND THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. OUR AREA WILL STILL BE INFLUENCED BY THIS SYSTEM AND CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUS HAVE KEPT THAT IDEA GOING IN THE FORECAST. THE LOW MAY FINALLY GET FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND EAST TO HAVE LITTLE INFLUENCE ON OUR AREA IN THE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT TIME PERIOD. THIS COULD VERY WELL BE OUR ONLY STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER BEFORE ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES DOWN FROM CANADA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY INTO SUNDAY. THEREFORE...HAVE CONTINUED THE IDEA OF A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA ON SUNDAY. DESPITE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS FOR A BETTER PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD FROM THE UPPER LOW DEVELOPING AND MOVING SOUTH OF OUR AREA...THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS SUGGEST AN OVERALL WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S WITH EVEN SOME LOCATIONS HAVING A SHOT AT 70 IN THE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY TIME PERIOD. && .AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...MAINLY MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL IFR INTERVALS FROM VERY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE, MIST AND STRATUS. LOW CEILINGS WILL OBSCURE MTNS. WARM FRONTAL RAIN IS LIFTING NORTHWARD, WITH ONLY A COUPLE MORE HOURS OF STEADY LIGHT RAIN THROUGH THIS EVENING. AFTER 03Z, UNSATURATED CONDITIONS ALOFT SUPPORT AREAS OF DRIZZLE (INTERSPERSED WITH MIST) LASTING THROUGH LATE MORNING MONDAY (14-16Z) MONDAY. IT`S DURING THIS 03-14Z TIME PERIOD WHERE CEILINGS/VIS MAY DIP INTO THE IFR RANGE. I`VE TRIED TO HINT AT THIS WITH SCT IFR CEILINGS IN PREVAILING MVFR DECK. WINDS SOUTH/SOUTHEAST 4-8 KTS TRENDING LIGHT/VARIABLE. ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE BRINGS NEXT SHOT OF STEADIER LIGHT RAIN AFTER 14Z LASTING THROUGH ABOUT 00Z. MVFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE WITH 3-5 SM RAIN BUT STILL A THREAT OF IFR CIGS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING AS FLOW TURNS FROM LIGHT NE/SE TO LIGHT NORTHERLY. CONFIDENCE IN THE IFR IS LOW BUT HIGH FOR MVFR. RAIN SHOULD BE ENDING AFT 00Z WITH TREND TOWARD VFR AT KMSS/KPBG BY 03-06Z BUT PERSISTENT MVFR ELSEWHERE. OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... 06Z TUE - 12Z TUE: MVFR IN RAIN. HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURED FROM LOW CEILINGS. TUE - WED: GENERALLY VFR. CHANCE MVFR SHOWERS WEDS AFTERNOON. THU: MVFR LCL IFR IN SHOWERS WITH LOW PRESSURE IN NY. FRI: VFR. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SISSON NEAR TERM...SISSON SHORT TERM...EVENSON LONG TERM...EVENSON AVIATION...SISSON

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