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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
663
FXUS61 KBTV 282331
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
731 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A closed upper low over the western Great Lakes will move slowly
south into the Ohio River Valley tonight, and will linger there
through Saturday. Meanwhile, a ridge of high pressure over
eastern Quebec and Labrador will slowly build southwest into the
region through Friday, with mostly fair and dry weather expected
over the North Country. As the closed low moves back north into
the Great Lakes this weekend, there will be increasing chances
for rain showers from Friday night through this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 731 PM EDT Wednesday...Going forecast in good shape with no
real big changes needed at this time. There were a few showers
earlier...but have since dissipated and not expecting any
redevelopment for the rest of the night.

Previous Discussion...
For tonight, the upper low currently over the southern tip of
Lake Michigan only dives slightly south into the Ohio River
Valley, while a dirty ridge of high pressure over eastern Quebec
and Labrador builds over portions of the northeast. I call it
"dirty" because it won`t be your classic high pressure providing
clearing skies, rather easterly flow off the Atlantic will
persist with variable cloudiness expected through the overnight.
This will make for a tricky min temp forecast as areas with more
clouds will be warmer than those that are clearer. Have opted for
a model blend approach, which will offer min temps generally
close to climo ranging through the 40s in general, except a few
upper 30s in the colder hollows of the Adirondacks and Northeast
Kingdom.

Thursday will be almost a repeat of today in regards to temps as
southeasterly areas will once again only be in the low/mid 60s and
areas northwest pushing into the low 70s. We`ll be under the ridge
I mentioned above which will keep us dry, and most areas should
see about the same amount of sunshine or more than we saw today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 414 PM EDT Wednesday...Models continue to show ridge of
high pressure over southern Quebec persisting Thursday night in to
Friday, keeping mid-upper level cutoff low over the Ohio Valley to
our south and west along with the bulk of the moisture and
precipitation associated with it. Pieces of energy will continue
to rotate about the low keeping clouds and slight POPs across
south central Vermont and the Adirondacks Thursday night,
increasing to low chance in extreme southern areas of the forecast
area as the low gains slow momentum northward toward the Great
Lakes region on Friday. Temperatures continue to be slightly above
normal with light easterly flow.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 414 PM EDT Wednesday...The closed 500mb low will bring rain
showers from south to north Friday night through the weekend as
the low moves from the Great Lakes Region shifting northeastward
Sunday night. Surface winds shift from the southeast to the south
Friday night, continuing to shift Southwest and west Sunday night.
Greater precip rates possible as the occluded front moves across
the area Sunday. QPF totals through Saturday expected to be
quarter inch or less, with an additional half inch possible
Sunday.

As the low pressure system lifts out of the area late Monday into
Monday night, drier air will begin to filter in aloft. low level
moisture will linger on Tuesday as high pressure returns to the
region.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
Through 00Z Thursday...VFR conditions are expected overall
throughout the period with widely variable ceilings. The lone
exception is MVFR ceilings at RUT right now which should last for
a few more hours before clearing out for the rest of the night.
Overnight, mid clouds will advance from the south which should mitigate
any fog development. Winds will generally not be an issue in
regards to strength, but will be very variable in direction for
most stations. KMSS will again see gustier winds tomorrow with
10-20 knot northeasterlies while KRUT will see a similar period of
gusty winds overnight tonight but from the southeast.

Outlook 00z Thursday through Monday...

00z Thu - 12z Sat: VFR under an increasing mid/high deck.

12z Sat - 00z Tue: Mix of VFR/MVFR in scattered rain showers, mainly
from 00z Sun onward.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Lahiff
NEAR TERM...Evenson/Lahiff
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...Lahiff/MV