Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 290244 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 1044 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES AND COLD TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. A SUNNY SUNDAY IS EXPECTED BUT WITH TEMPERATURES STILL BELOW NORMAL. TO START THE WORK WEEK A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA. AFTER A BRIEF COOL DOWN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY A WARMING TREND WILL LEAD TO TEMPS IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S BY THE END OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... AS OF 1044 PM EDT SATURDAY...CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AT THIS TIME...SO NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE. && .SHORT TERM /9 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 359 PM EDT SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER SUNDAY WITH PLENTY OF SUN AND TEMPERATURES STILL BELOW NORMAL IN THE 30S. LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING AN ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY PUSH INTO THE REGION WITH DECENT QG FORCING FROM 06Z-18Z. IT WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK BEFORE OVERSPREADING INTO VERMONT BY EARLY MORNING ON MONDAY. EXPECT THE TEMPS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO SUPPORT COMPLETE MELTING OF THE PRECIP IN VALLEYS BY 15-18Z BEFORE CHANGING BACK TO SNOW BY 00Z IN THE EVENING. MODELS SHOWING STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND EVEN SOME LOW VALUES OF CAPE, SO SOME GUSTY RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVE THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY. TEMPS DURING THE DAY WILL WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S UNDER MODERATE AND GUSTY SOUTH WESTERLY FLOW OF 25 TO 30 KTS WITH OVERCAST SKIES. MONDAY NIGHT...COLDER POST FRONTAL NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS AND WITH FROUDE NUMBERS EXPECTED ABOVE 1 MOST OF THE SNOW SHOWER EXPECTED AT THE SUMMITS AND SLIGHTLY ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE GREENS. A DUSTING TO COUPLE INCHES POSSIBLE WITH A BIT MORE ON THE MOUNTAIN SUMMITS. LOWS IN THE 20S. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 343 PM EDT SATURDAY...CHANGEABLE WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. DRY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY THEN WARMING AND WARM AIR ADVECTION RAINS THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT. POST FRONTAL SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY THEN A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK SYSTEM FOR SATURDAY YET TO BE RESOLVED. THERE WERE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR THE THURSDAY NIGHT FRONTAL PASSAGE AND WARMTH OR LACK OF FOR FRIDAY HOWEVER 12Z ECMWF HAS COME IN LINE WITH THE COOLER GFS. TUESDAY STARTS WITH FAMILIAR LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US AND NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW BEHIND A DEPARTING SURFACE LOW. CARRYING SLIGHT CHC POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY WITH LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR BEHIND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING BY MAINLY TO SOUTH LATE TUESDAY. DRY WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH BRIEF SURFACE RIDGING AND A SHORTWAVE RIDGE AT 500 MB. SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF NEXT UPPER LOW MOVING IN NORTHWEST FLOW OUT OF CANADA...AND SURFACE LOW PASSING BY TO NORTH. AREA WILL BE CLIPPED BY WARM AIR ADVECTION RAINFALL THURSDAY, FOLLOWED BY COLD FRONT PASSAGE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. AS NOTED BY PREVIOUS FORECASTER GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT IN STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT, ESPECIALLY CHANNELING IN CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS. AREA WILL BE WILL INTO THE WARM AIR FOR A 24 HOUR PERIOD FROM 12Z THURSDAY TO 12Z FRIDAY WITH 850 MB TEMPS MAXING OUT NEAR +3 TO +5C. QUICK HIT FROM PRECIPITATION AND BRIEF WARMUP WILL GIVE US MINIMAL HYDRO CONCERNS FOR EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM PRECIP OR SNOWMELT. RIVERS SHOULD BE ABLE TO CONTAIN ANY RISES WITH LITTLE IF ANY ICE BREAKUP. COLD FRONT DROPS THINGS BACK BELOW FREEZING FRIDAY NIGHT, AND THEN A SECOND VORT MAX ROUNDS THE BOTTOM OF THE 500 MB TROUGH ON SATURDAY. GFS A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH WITH THIS FEATURE TRACKING IT ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WHILE ECMWF SEEMS A LITTLE TOO FAR NORTH TAKING THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS NORTHERN NY/VT. TEMPS START OFF BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS TO 20S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MUCH WARMER THURSDAY IN STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50. FROM FRIDAY ONWARD TEMPERATURES TREND BACK DOWN TOWARD NORMAL. && .AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. ANY LINGERING CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH SKY CLEAR EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY WITH ONLY A FEW HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH SOME SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SO WINDS 5-10 KNOTS OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST EXPECTED AFTER 15Z...WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS AT MSS. OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... 00Z MONDAY THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...PERIODS MVFR CIGS/VSBY IN RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WITH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING WEST TO EAST OUT OF GREAT LAKES. 06-12Z MONDAY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 KTS POSSIBLE IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...BUT LOCALIZED MVFR WITH SCATTERED MTN SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY (POSSIBLY INCLUDING SLK/MPV)...DIMINISHING LATE IN THE DAY TUESDAY. HIR TRRN OBSCD AT TIMES. 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...MVFR CIGS/VSBY IN LIGHT SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SISSON NEAR TERM...WGH SHORT TERM...SISSON LONG TERM...HANSON AVIATION...MUCCILLI/HANSON

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