306
FNUS73 KABR 132212
FWSABR

Spot Forecast for Andrisen GPA RX...SD GFP
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
512 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1200 CDT on May 14.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

Winds will be out of the southeast throughout the day Tuesday with
gusts between 15 and 20 mph. Showers and possibly some weak
thunderstorms move into the area between 6 and 8PM CDT. Tuesday
afternoon humidity will be between 35 and 40 percent.

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (30-40 percent).
CWR.................1 percent.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 69.
Min humidity........39 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 12 to 14 mph.
Mixing height.......3200-4400 ft agl.
Transport winds.....Southeast 14 to 18 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (38300 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to good (70700 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or (low) to (moderate).

TIME (CDT)      12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........30  30  30  32  39  43
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............63  65  66  67  68  68
RH..............48  43  42  40  39  39
20 FT wind dir..SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
20 FT wind spd..12  13  13  13  14  13
20 FT wind gust.15  16  17  17  17  17
Mix hgt (kft)...3.2 3.4 3.7 4.0 4.4 4.3
Smoke Dispersal.PR  FR  FR  FR  GD  GD

.TUESDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (45-55 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers in the evening. Chance of rain
                    showers overnight.
CWR.................6 percent increasing to 28 percent overnight.
Chance of pcpn......50 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 52.
Max humidity........86 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 9 to 12 mph.
Mixing height.......500-4500 ft agl.
Transport winds.....Southeast 13 to 16 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (63600 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (5900 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
Haines Index........4 (low).

TIME (CDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........46  49  52  62  71  81  82  83  84  86  87  89
Weather cov.....    SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....    RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).10  20  20  20  20  20  30  40  40  50  40  40
Temp............68  67  63  59  58  57  56  55  54  53  53  53
RH..............39  43  52  60  62  62  66  69  74  77  80  80
20 FT wind dir..SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
20 FT wind spd..12  10  10  9   9   10  10  10  12  12  12  10
20 FT wind gust.16  16  16  17  20  20  20  20  20  21  21  20
Mix hgt (kft)...4.5 4.2 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6
Smoke Dispersal.GD  FR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers in the morning. Slight chance of
                    thunderstorms. Rain showers likely in the
                    afternoon.
CWR.................27 percent increasing to 57 percent.
Chance of pcpn......70 percent.
LAL.................1 until 0700, then 2.
Max temperature.....Around 64.
Min humidity........66 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 12 to 13 mph shifting to the
                    southwest around 13 mph early in the afternoon,
                    then shifting to the northwest late in the
                    afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......600-2400 ft agl.
Transport winds.....South 13 to 15 mph shifting to the west around
                    13 mph in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (7500 knot-ft).
Haines Index........3 to 4 or (very low) to (low).

TIME (CDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........89  82  84  87  89  87  85  83  79  75  71  66
Weather cov.....CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........    SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
Chc of pcpn (%).40  50  50  50  50  50  50  70  70  70  70  70
Temp............52  52  53  55  57  58  59  60  61  62  63  63
RH..............86  86  86  83  80  80  78  75  72  70  67  67
20 FT wind dir..SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  S   S   SW  W   NW  NW
20 FT wind spd..12  12  12  12  12  12  13  13  13  13  13  13
20 FT wind gust.18  17  17  17  17  18  18  20  20  20  20  20
Mix hgt (kft)...0.6 0.7 0.8 1.1 1.4 1.7 2.1 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.0 1.8
Smoke Dispersal.PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR

$$
Forecaster...KK
Requested by...Owen McElroy
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2414040.0/ABR
.DELDT 05/13/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL owen.mcelroy@state.sd.us