000
FXUS61 KBUF 181155
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
755 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE EAST ALONG A MID-LEVEL FRONT OVER LAKE
ONTARIO INTO THE NORTH COUNTY THIS MORNING. IMPROVING WEATHER WILL
ARRIVE LATER TODAY AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER
THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS IS OBSERVED ON AREA RADARS THIS MORNING
EXTENDING ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO EAST OVER THE NORTH COUNTY.
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS 850MB BOUNDARY/FRONT LOCATED WHERE THE SHOWERS
ARE OBSERVED WITH SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW SOUTH OF THE PA LINE. ALOFT
A TROUGH AXIS IS LOCATED JUST TO THE WEST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS 850MB BOUNDARY HAS HELPED TO FORCE THE RAIN
SHOWERS ALONG WITH DECENT MOISTURE FOUND OVER MUCH OF OUR AREA IN
THE FORM OF PWATS AROUND AN INCH. THE ONLY MODEL WHICH PICKED UP ON
THIS BAND OF RAIN WAS THE RGEM MODEL WHICH SHOWS THIS RAIN SHIFTING
EAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND SHIFTING EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

SOME CLOUDS/SHOWERS WILL LINGER THIS MORNING THEN ONCE THE TROUGH
AXIS SWINGS TO OUR EAST OUR WEATHER WILL IMPROVE. EXPECT TO SEE A
CLEARING TREND WITH SUNSHINE WORKING IN FROM  NORTH TO SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE COOLER TEMPS FOUND ALOFT AND NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL MAKE FOR A BIT COOLER DAY TODAY. HIGHS WILL REACH INTO
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. A COOLER NIGHT THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS IS
ON TAP FOR TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND DRY NORTHERLY FLOW HELPING
TEMPS TO QUICKLY DROP TONIGHT. LOWS WILL REACH THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SUNNY AND DRY WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THE BULK OF THE PERIOD AS A BROAD
DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SHIFTS ACROSS
ACROSS THE REGION AND ULTIMATELY OFF THE EAST COAST BY THE WEEKEND.
COOL AND DRY NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SURFACE HIGH
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND LOW DEWPOINTS
WILL PROVIDE AN IDEAL SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB ABOUT 5 DEGREES PER DAY THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OVERHEAD AND THEN TO THE EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA...SETTING UP WEAK SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW THAT WILL
NONETHELESS PUSH HIGHS TO AROUND 80 BY FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL ALSO REFLECT THIS TREND WITH
READINGS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S THURSDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S AS SURFACE DEWPOINTS INCREASE THANKS TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED RETURN FLOW. THE INCREASING MOISTURE WILL ALSO ALLOW
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIMITED DIURNAL CU THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH
MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS INCREASING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE COUPLED WITH A SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO DROP ACROSS THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY INTO UPSTATE NEW YORK COUPLED POTENTIALLY RESULT
IN A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT DRY
WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A CONTINUATION OF FAIR WEATHER LOOKS TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD
AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO REMAIN IN CONTROL. A BIT MORE HUMIDITY
SHOULD START TO WORK BACK INTO THE REGION...AT LEAST INTO WESTERN
SECTIONS FRIDAY AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH BEGINS TO SHIFT OFF TO
THE EAST ALLOWING A WEAK RETURN FLOW TO SET UP.

AFTER THIS...THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK THE
WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO BE A FAIRLY ACTIVE ONE ACROSS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NEW YORK. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES LOOK TO RIDE OVER THE TOP
OF THE RIDGE. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH A SURFACE WARM FRONT
LIFTING ACROSS THE REGION WILL BRING SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IT WILL BE CERTAINLY WARMER AND MORE
HUMID WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S TO THE LOWER 80S AND LOWS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
TO BE EVEN WARMER AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES TOP OUT IN THE MIDDLE
TEENS TO NEAR 20C. HOWEVER...WILL PLAY IT ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE
DUE TO QUESTIONS OVER THE ACTUAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION/CLOUDS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS IS FOUND OVER LAKE ONTARIO EAST TO KART AREA.
THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH SOME ELEVATED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL SWING EAST OF OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
CLEARING TREAD OCCURRING AT ALL TAFS. NORTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG
THE SOUTHERN SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME SPOTTY IFR
CIGS BUT THIS WILL ALSO CLEAR THIS MORNING.

LATER TODAY...DRY WEATHER WITH LIFTING/SCATTERING CIGS WILL PREVAIL
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FOUND SHIFTING EAST ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES THIS MORNING. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE OBSERVED ON ONTARIO TO
THE NORTH OF THE FRONT. CONVERGENCE OF THESE WINDS WITH THE LAKE
SHORE ON THE WESTERN END OF THE LAKE HAS INCREASED WINDS TO ALLOW
FOR LOW END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE LOWER NIAGARA EAST TO
HAMLIN BEACH.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL
THEN RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS AND NEGLIGIBLE WAVES INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LOZ030-
         042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH