803
FXUS62 KCAE 151501
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1101 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and thunderstorms will be possible again today with
isolated strong to severe storms. Upper ridging will provide a
brief break in the unsettled conditions on Thursday. Shower and
thunderstorms chances increase again Friday and especially on
Saturday with unsettled weather lingering into early next week.
Ridging builds in during the middle of next week resulting in
decreasing rain chances and a gradual increase in temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Low clouds have cleared or lifted quickly across the forecast
area as daytime heating has begun. Temps have been raised over
the next several hours as we were running a bit low and I expect
mid to upper 80s for the majority of those along and south of
I-20 this afternoon. The real weather maker is expected to push
into the region over the next several hours. A robust shortwave,
noted in satellite imagery, continues to push southeastward
from southern TN this morning. Ahead of this, warm and moist
low-levels are expected to help yield moderate instability
(~1000-1500 j/kg of CAPE) across much of the area, especially
as mid-level temps cool on the approach of the shortwave. Shear
looks relatively weak, but sufficient for organized multi-cell
clusters this afternoon. Guidance has been a bit slow to
initiate convection with recent events, and this event looks no
different. Raised PoPs beginning at 18z because the shortwave is
going to approach the area around this time, with convection
increasing in coverage thereafter. As it pertains to severe
weather, instability will be more than sufficient and shear will
be merely sufficient. Looking at DESI mean soundings, westerly
storm relative shear favors hailers, but mid-level moisture
looks to increase in coincidence with improving forcing through
the afternoon. But low-level look to dry a bit, which would help
as well and should help promote near severe downdrafts. So
overall, the slight risk for the northern and northeastern FA is
reasonable, with strong to marginally severe storms (max
threats of 0.75"-1.25" hail, 55-65 mph wind gusts) possible
through the afternoon hours.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: Tonight, any lingering convection should
wane and shift to the Coastal Plain by midnight with drier air
and high pressure building into the area behind a weak cold
front. Clearing skies overnight should favor radiational cooling
and expect overnight lows slightly cooler than tonight with
lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Thursday and Thursday Night: Upper ridging begins to build in
from the west on Thursday resulting in a short break in the
unsettled weather pattern. Skies clear out in the morning with
sunny to mostly sunny skies expected. The sunshine will result
in warmer temperatures than today with slightly above normal
highs likely. High clouds associated with the next storm system
will move in Thursday Night with slightly above normal
temperatures continuing into the overnight hours.

Friday and Friday Night: Upper ridging slowly moves east in
response to an upper level low moving out of the Central CONUS.
Clouds will lower and thicken through the day as PWATs increase
ahead of the surface cyclone. A few showers or thunderstorms are
possible later in the day but the majority of the precipitation
should hold off until Friday night and especially Saturday.
Temperatures on Friday will be dependent on the timing of
afternoon convection but highs should end up near to slightly
above normal. The clouds and precipitation result in above
normal temperatures at night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
While there remains a moderate level of discrepancy in the
model guidance, confidence in rain and thunderstorms on Saturday
continues to increase as the upper low and its associated storm
system move east into our area. The GFS is on the slower end
with the potential for showers and thunderstorms lingering into
Sunday as well while the Euro clears out for Sunday. Opted to
cap PoPs on Saturday in the Likely category due to lingering
uncertainty with PoPs in the Chance category on Sunday. PWATs
remain elevated early next week which could result in isolated
to scattered convection each afternoon but another ridge should
build in late in the extended decreasing rain chances and
increasing temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions generally expected through the forecast period
outside of some early morning fog/stratus.

Overnight convection has dissipated and fog and stratus has also
dissipated or shifted away from the terminals. However,
satellite imagery showing some stratus moving northward through
GA which may impact AGS/DNL so included a tempo group through
15z and also at OGB where some stratus is still lingering
nearby. Light southerly winds pick up to around 10 knots by 15z
from the southwest with gusts to 20 knots through the
afternoon. Isolated afternoon convection possible as the upper
trough moves through the region but coverage not high enough to
include in this forecast.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Showers and thunderstorms and
associated restrictions are possible again Friday and Saturday.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...