803
FXUS62 KFFC 091815
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
215 PM EDT Thu May 9 2024

...New 18Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 335 AM EDT Thu May 9 2024

Active weather anticipated again today as a second MCS moves through
the CWA.

Early morning convection (MCS #1) is moving off to the east.

MCS #2 is currently winding up across western TN. This system will
advance eastward through the overnight hours and move through the
CWA today. Models have been fairly consistent on the timing of this
system over the last couple of days. The MCS should approach the far
NW corner of the CWA around 10-12Z and then continue southward. The
far northern portion of the outlook area should be well worked over
as the MCS approaches, but a few strong storms with isolated severe
storms will continue to be possible.

As the MCS moves south of the north GA mtns, the potential for
severe weather will increase fairly rapidly as this area is not
worked over and there will be plenty of moisture and instability to
work with. In addition, plenty of deep layer shear will be present
and lapse rates remain impressively steep. Damaging wind gusts,
large hail and a few tornadoes will all be possible. The MCS should
travel southward across the entire CWA through the early afternoon
hours.

The models are progging a late period MCS (MCS #3) approaching from
the west late tonight/every early Friday. The HRRR seems to be the
most reasonable hi-res model regarding this convective complex.
There will likely be some timing changes and some slight track
adjustments, but do think the bulk of strong/severe storms with this
system could remain south of the CWA. The entire CWA should be well
worked over from the MCS (#2) from earlier in the day. Not sure if
the atmos across the southern quarter of the CWA will have enough
time to recover for strong/severe thunderstorms. However, due to the
uncertainty regarding these types of systems, will leave in some
higher pops in that area. Can`t rule out the potential for strong
and/or isolated storms in that area, but the potential should be low
during the early morning hours.

The early morning MCS (#1) has produced some locally heavy rainfall
across northern portions of the CWA. Radar estimates/observations
show some 3"-4" amounts across far NW GA...with a axis of 1"-2"
extending further eastward. The second MCS is expected to be a fast
mover, but will be capable of producing additional locally heavy
rainfall. Will hold off issuing a FFA at this time, but do expect
locally higher amounts of rainfall.

NListemaa

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 335 AM EDT Thu May 9 2024

Previous Discussion Below

A brief period of dry and slightly cooler weather is expected
this weekend as we return to northwest flow aloft. Rain chances
look to return to the region next week as another low pressure
system developing in the Southern Plains moves eastward.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 207 PM EDT Thu May 9 2024

Earlier thunderstorm activity has played havoc with wind directions,
but winds should return to more solidly SW in the Atlanta metro area
and AHN within the next hour or two. Thunderstorm activity has
mostly cleared the Atlanta metro area and AHN. Farther to the S,
thunderstorms are still ongoing at CSG and near and S of MCN.
Thunderstorm activity is expected to continue slowly sinking S for
the remainder of the afternoon. Cigs will continue to improve across
the N terminals through the afternoon, with improving conditions
across the S by evening. However, another area of showers and
thunderstorms is forecast to sweep rapidly across the area late
tonight and Fri morning. Best chances of thunderstorms (as well as
the strongest storms) are expected to be across S GA, but have a
brief period of gusty winds and cig/vsby reductions associated with
this activity at all terminals.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium regarding exact timing and intensity of thunderstorms late
tonight and Fri morning, high for other elements.

SEC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          65  83  52  77 /  10  30   0   0
Atlanta         66  82  54  76 /  40  30   0   0
Blairsville     58  74  46  69 /  10  20   0  10
Cartersville    62  80  49  76 /  30  20   0   0
Columbus        67  85  57  80 /  70  60   0   0
Gainesville     65  80  53  75 /  10  30   0   0
Macon           67  83  56  79 /  40  60   0   0
Rome            63  80  51  76 /  30  20   0   0
Peachtree City  65  83  52  78 /  50  40   0   0
Vidalia         69  83  59  80 /  40  90   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

$$

SHORT TERM...SEC
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...SEC