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000
FXUS64 KHGX 262330
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
630 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday Night)
Issued at 331 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

An upper level trough & associated surface low is currently tracking
northeasterly across the Central/Northern Plains this afternoon. SE
Texas has ample instability available this afternoon, with MU CAPE
ranging from 2000-3000 J/KG and midlevel lapse rates of 7.5-8
DegC/km. PWs range from 1.3-1.6" and dewpoint are currently in the
upper 60s to lower 70s. A 30-40 knot LLJ remains in place overhead,
and should continue to bring gusty conditions across SE Texas
tonight. 6km bulk shear values range from 25 to 40 knots across the
north/northwestern portions of our CWA, near the Brazos Valley/Piney
Woods area. Meanwhile, 1km SRH remains generally under 150 m2/s2.
Thunderstorms, some severe, are currently ongoing near
Central/Northeast Texas. High-res guidance suggests that the
strongest forcing for these storms will remain further north, just
outside of our CWA. Even still, it is possible that a few strong to
severe storms develop over portions of the Brazos Valley/Piney
Woods area late this afternoon through later tonight. SPC has
this area under a Marginal (level 1/5) risk of severe weather
throughout the remainder of today. If any storms do develop in
this area, the main threats will be damaging wind, large hail, and
possibly locally heavy rainfall.

A cold front associated with the aforementioned system stalls out
near Central Texas, allowing humid conditions to persist overnight
as dewpoints remain in the upper 60s to lower 70s. This, with cloudy
skies should keep lows for Saturday morning in the upper 60s to mid
70s. Another mid/upper level trough will dig into the Four Corners
on Saturday, though once again the strongest forcing remains north
of our area during this period. Slightly stronger capping and lack
of forcing should keep rain chances slim across SE Texas during the
daytime hours. A 30-40 knot LLJ will continue to bring gusty winds
during the day, which could warrant the need for a Wind Advisory,
mainly in areas along the coastline/barrier islands. Otherwise,
highs should be in the 80s area-wide.

The aforementioned upper level trough should fill NE across the
Plains during the late afternoon/evening hours on Sunday. This will
push the aforementioned stalled boundary towards SE Texas, which may
produce isolated showers/storms over portions of the Brazos Valley
heading into early Sunday morning.

03

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 331 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

There are a number of features we will need to watch for Sunday
and Monday. The first is the aforementioned frontal boundary that
will slowly creep into our neck of the woods from the west on
Sunday. The other is a mid/upper trough currently digging
southward over western CONUS. We will also need to monitor smaller
disturbances embedded in the flow the aloft that could further
enhance lift. By Sunday, the trough is expected to take on a
negative tilt, with its axis roughly extending from eastern
Colorado down to central Texas. Mid/upper south-southwest to
southwest shear will increase through the day on Sunday as a
result. Meanwhile in the low levels, deepening low pressure over
the central plains coupled with continued high pressure over
eastern CONUS will steepen the LL gradient and enhanced deep moist
LL onshore flow (sfc-850mb). You will feel this via a strong
breeze and plentiful humidity. The confluence of these features
are expected to result in scattered showers and thunderstorms on
starting late morning / early afternoon on Sunday, continuing into
the morning and possibly the afternoon on Monday. The Weather
Prediction Center has put most of our region under a Marginal Risk
(Level 1 of 4) of excessive rainfall while our northern counties
are under a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 4). An isolated strong to
severe thunderstorm cannot be ruled out in our northern counties
on Sunday.

Both the mid/upper trough and sfc low pressure system pull
northeastward and gradually lose their influence over the area on
Monday. Despite the loss of larger scale forcings, continued high
PWATs and the presence of weak mid/upper disturbances may suffice
for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday and
Wednesday. Global models indicate a more well defined mid/upper
shortave could bring a better chance of showers/thunderstorms on
Thursday. However, the best lift may remain north and west of our
region.

Regarding temperatures, the forecast is pretty warm and humid with
highs generally in the 80s with lows mostly in the low 70s.  &&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

CIGS should continue to scatter & lift this afternoon, with most
locations expected to reach VFR levels. MVFR CIGS may linger in
areas south of the I-10 corridor this afternoon. Isolated showers
could develop in these areas too, through one or two isolated
stronger storms cannot be completely ruled out. Isolated showers
will also be possible further north (near KCLL and KUTS) as well,
with a higher possibility of stronger thunderstorms for these
locations. Southeasterly winds of 10-20 knots with gusts of 25-35
knots will be possible throughout the day, relaxing slightly this
evening as MVFR CIGS fill back in from the coastline. MVFR
conditions persist overnight into Saturday morning, with CIGS
improving heading into the afternoon.

03

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 627 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Coastal terminals at MVFR CIGs with all other terminals at VFR.
Expect MVFR conditions to develop again tonight/overnight as low
clouds fill into the area. VFR CIGs expected to return during
afternoon hours with a repeat of MVFR CIGs expected again tomorrow
night. Winds will remain gusty out of th SE the rest of today and
into tomorrow with gusts to above 30 kts possible.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 433 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Strong onshore flow will continue through the weekend along with
enhanced seas. Small Craft Advisories are in effect through Sunday
morning. Minor coastal flooding cannot be ruled out Saturday
morning of in the bays, particularly upper portions of bays. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are possible on Sunday and Monday.
Onshore winds will gradually decrease late Sunday into Monday.
However, there will likely be a lag in the decreasing seas.
Therefore, it is possible that advisories will need to be extended
into Monday for areas offshore. Moderate onshore flow is expected
to persist through much of the upcoming week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  73  85  73  82 /  20  10  20  80
Houston (IAH)  74  84  74  83 /  30   0   0  60
Galveston (GLS)  73  79  74  79 /  30   0   0  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Sunday for GMZ330-335-350-
     355-370-375.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...03
LONG TERM....Self
AVIATION...Adams
MARINE...Self