433
FXUS66 KLOX 122349
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
449 PM PDT Sun May 12 2024

.SYNOPSIS...12/131 PM.

Quiet weather will continue the next several days with near
to slightly below normal temperatures. Widespread night and
morning low clouds are expected across coast and valleys as
onshore flow increases. Temperatures will cool slightly through
Wednesday, then warm slightly the end of the week. Gusty winds are
likely across the mountains and Antelope Valley each afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-WED)...12/151 PM.

Overall a very quiet pattern this coming week. Weak high pressure
over the area today will be replaced by a slow moving weak upper
low through Wed. During this time onshore flow will be increasing,
as will the marine layer depth and daily clearing times. Like the
last couple days areas within a few miles of the coast will
struggle to clear at all, especially from Malibu north.
Temperatures will begin a slow decline, especially inland, with
most areas either at or slightly below normal. Main exception will
be the Antelope Valley and mountains which will be 3-6 degrees
above normal through the period. Onshore afternoon breezes will
be increasing, possibly to near advisory levels by Tue/Wed in the
AV. There`s a very small chance (10% or less) for showers and
thunderstorms over the mountains each afternoon. Possibly slightly
higher chances Tue as the upper low is closest in proximity
before it moves southeast Wed.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...12/201 PM.

Deterministic models are closely following the ensembles mean
solution for the end of the week and into next weekend, which is
high pressure pushing closer to the West Coast Thu and Fri, then
retreating to 140w next weekend as another trough falls out of
the Gulf of Alaska and into the Pac NW. For coast and valleys
probably not much change in the drab night and morning low clouds
and fog pattern and minimal variations in daytime temps.
Mountains and interior areas will see some warming later in the
week as the high gets closer and onshore flow weakens. But then
turning slightly cooler again next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...12/2348Z.

At 2345Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 2200 feet deep. The top of
the inversion was around 3200 feet with a max temp of 21 C.

Low to moderate confidence in coastal/valley TAFs, high confidence
in desert TAFs. Low clouds failed to clear today at KSBA, KOXR,
and KCMA and is expected to make a quick surge into remaining
coastal TAF sites and KBUR/KVNY through the evening hours.
Timing of flight cat changes may be off by +/- 2 hours. There is
a 30 percent chc of flight cats being 1 category lower than fcst
after 03Z. LIFR conditions becoming likely later tonight for
KSMX/KSBP, with a 20% chance of VLIFR conditions between 06z-14z.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. Timing of flight cat changes
could be off by +/- 2 hours, and 1 cat lower than fcst. MVFR cigs
likely to linger into Monday afternoon at KLAX. There is a 30
percent chc of a 6 kt east wind component 09-17Z Monday.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. Timing of flight cat changes
could be off by +/- 2 hours.

&&

.MARINE...12/210 PM.

For the Outer Waters, moderate confidence in forecast. There is a
60-80 percent chance of Small Craft Advisory (SCA) winds south of
Point Sal and a 30-40 percent chance across the waters north of
Point Sal this evening into tonight and Monday afternoon through
Monday night. Otherwise, SCA conditions are not expected through
Thursday over the Outer Waters.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, high confidence in
forecast as winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA
levels through Thursday.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate
confidence in forecast for today, then high confidence. Through
Thursday, winds and seas will remain below SCA levels for most
areas. The only exception will be the western third of the Santa
Barbara Channel, where there is a 30-50 percent chance of SCA
winds at this evening through tonight.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 5 AM PDT Monday for
      zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...Gomberg
MARINE...Munroe/Lund
SYNOPSIS...MW

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox