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000
FXUS65 KMSO 230726
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
126 AM MDT Tue Apr 23 2024

.DISCUSSION...The warming trend persists through today and
Wednesday, with temperatures reaching the upper 60s to mid 70s by
midweek.

By Wednesday afternoon into Thursday, southwest flow will usher
mid-level moisture into the Northern Rockies, bringing about
scattered shower chances. While the greatest likelihood of showers
lies south of I-90, the dry low levels should keep precipitation
amounts minimal. Additionally, expect an increase in westerly
pressure gradient mid-week, resulting in afternoon breezes.

Ensemble models continue to indicate a sizable trough settling
over the western U.S. from Friday through the upcoming weekend,
although details remain subject to disagreement. While much of the
trough`s energy is anticipated to dig into the Great Basin,
there`s roughly a 60% chance for a mid-level low to form just
south of our region, particularly late Friday into early Saturday.
Should this low materialize, widespread precipitation could
ensue; otherwise, scattered daily showers are the alternate
scenario. Snow levels are currently projected between 5500-6500
feet but may trend lower, around 4500 feet, if a robust closed low
passes just south of the region. The potential implication would
be impacts on pass-level roads if these lower snow levels come to
fruition. Monitoring closed low development and location remains
crucial, as they are challenging to forecast accurately at this
juncture.

Looking ahead into the first week of May, the pattern favors
continued unsettled conditions and opportunities for closed lows,
aligning with typical Spring climatology in the Northern Rockies.



&&

.AVIATION...
A developing easterly pressure gradient is emerging across the
region, indicating a shift towards easterly winds expected to
persist through at least the morning hours. Compared to the
preceding two days, overall wind speeds are anticipated to be
lighter today. Projections from the High-Resolution Ensemble
Forecast (HREF) suggest a gradual uptick in high cloud cover from
the western direction throughout the day.




&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$