284
FXUS64 KOHX 120701
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
201 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 200 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024

Dry conditions will continue through early overnight hours
tonight due to continued building of ridging influences surface
and aloft. Afternoon high temperatures today will be around or
slightly warmer than seasonal normal values ranging upper 70s to
lower 80s, mid 70s Cumberland Plateau Region. Look for increasing
cloudiness from southwest to northeast as tonight progresses ahead
of next weather system to influences mid state`s weather with
some isolated to scattered light showers moving into southwestern
and western portions of our area late tonight. Lows tonight will
be around seasonal normal values in mid to upper 50s. Upper level
flow will become increasingly southwesterly orientated as Monday
progresses with southerly low level atmospheric flow becoming
increasingly established supportive of embedded multiple shortwave
passages. Isolated to scattered showers should spread across all
of area as morning hours progress with scattered to numerous
showers and isolated to scattered thunderstorms prevailing as
afternoon hours progress. Not expecting any organized strong to
severe storm potential at this time. With expected cloud coverage
and rainfall, highs will drop down into the lower 70s, upper 60s
to around 70 for locations just west of and across Cumberland
Plateau Region.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through next Saturday)
Issued at 200 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024

Weather pattern will continue to be conducive to a continuance of
shower and thunderstorm chances through Wednesday afternoon as
progressive southwesterly upper level flow continues and a
vertically stacked surface/upper level low system Tuesday night
into the day on Wednesday. Total rainfall amounts from late
tonight through Wednesday afternoon though look to generally
range from around 0.75" up to 1.5." Some strong thunderstorms
could be possible as Tuesday progress. Mild lows in low to mid
60s, upper 50s to around 60 Cumberland Plateau Region are expected
on Monday night. High temperatures will span the 70s on Tuesday
and Wednesday. A surface front will drop in from the northwest and
upper level ridging will build across our area as Wednesday night
through Thursday afternoon progress bringing temporary dry
conditions to our area with high temperatures continuing to warm.
A surface frontal passage looks to occur west to east across mid
state region as Friday progresses with upper level flow once again
taking on southwesterly flow characteristics with possible
multiple embedded shortwave passages and a potential more
pronounced upper level trough approaching our area by late
Saturday afternoon from the west. Shower and thunderstorm chances
will return to mid state region. Total rainfall amounts during
this time period look to range from greater than 0.50" up to
around 1.25." as a warming trend once again commences on Saturday
after highs on Friday are expected to be around seasonal normal
values.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1224 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024

Predominately VFR conditions expected through the current TAF
period. Patchy fog may develop in some locations between now and
12Z, but not enough confidence to include at this time. Light
winds throughout the TAF period with some variability, generally
variations between SW and SE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      81  58  73  65 /   0  10  60  80
Clarksville    79  56  72  64 /   0  10  70  80
Crossville     73  53  68  57 /   0   0  60  70
Columbia       80  59  72  63 /   0  20  70  70
Cookeville     75  56  70  61 /   0   0  60  70
Jamestown      74  54  71  58 /   0   0  50  70
Lawrenceburg   79  59  71  63 /   0  20  60  70
Murfreesboro   80  58  73  63 /   0  10  60  70
Waverly        81  60  73  63 /   0  20  70  80

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JB Wright
LONG TERM....JB Wright
AVIATION.....Adcock