423
FXUS64 KOHX 110529
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1229 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 824 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024

A much appreciated dry and cool air mass was in place across the
area this evening. High pressure will bring light winds and
mainly clear skies through the night. The forecast has been
updated to include patchy fog. The dryness of the air will keep
the fog from becoming widespread, but there could be some patches
of thick fog in valleys and other low lying areas thanks to lots
of lingering surface moisture from recent rainfall. Otherwise,
lows will dip several degrees below normal, from the mid 40s to
lower 50s.

The rest of the weekend looks good. A weak front will pass
through tomorrow with patchy clouds across the area and maybe a
brief shower for the Upper Cumberland. Sunday (Mothers Day) looks
fantastic with sunshine and light winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Saturday)
Issued at 1028 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024

High pressure centered out west is producing a cool, north flow
across Middle Tennessee today, which comes as a welcome reprieve
coming off this week`s heavy rain and severe storms. An upper
trough will finally come through early this afternoon and we can
expect some additional cloudiness as a result, and maybe also a
light shower or two along the Upper Plateau. And a weak surface
boundary coming through tomorrow may also produce a few light
showers in the same general area. Otherwise, the forecast through
the weekend is mercifully free of rain and storms with pleasant,
spring-like temperatures. This will give our rivers and streams
the chance to recede, as we still have some gages that are in
flood or at least above action stage.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night through next Friday)
Issued at 1028 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024

The wet pattern will return next week as a low pressure system
comes out of the Great Plains beginning early Monday and keeps us
active through midweek. At this time, we are not outlooked for
severe storms with this system, nor is there any concern about
heavy rainfall, as storm total QPF values are generally running
around an inch or less. A subsequent frontal system will bring
additional convection to the mid state Thursday and Friday with
similar QPF values. Temperatures next week will stay close to or
slightly above seasonal normals.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1229 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024

VFR conditions currently, but patchy to locally dense fog may
develop overnight causing some flight category restrictions. Any
locations with vis impacts will quickly improve after sunrise. VFR
through the remainder of the TAF period thereafter. Winds will
pick up in speed by the afternoon, shifting from SW/W to W/NW
after 00Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      78  53  81  59 /  10   0   0  10
Clarksville    76  51  80  58 /   0   0   0  10
Crossville     70  46  73  53 /  30   0   0   0
Columbia       78  51  80  58 /   0   0   0  10
Cookeville     72  48  75  55 /  30   0   0   0
Jamestown      70  46  73  52 /  30   0   0   0
Lawrenceburg   78  51  79  58 /  10   0   0  10
Murfreesboro   78  48  80  56 /  30   0   0  10
Waverly        78  51  81  59 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE.......13
SHORT TERM...Rose
LONG TERM....Rose
AVIATION.....Adcock