046
FXUS62 KRAH 181545
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1145 AM EDT Sat May 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
The region will remain in a warm, humid, and unsettled weather
pattern through tomorrow. Cool high pressure will build in from
the north tomorrow afternoon through Monday, then shift off the Mid
Atlantic coast late Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1145 AM Saturday...

Water vapor imagery depicts a shortwave over western TN and northern
MS and mid/upper ridging over the western Atlantic, with central NC
under the influence of southwesterly flow in between these two
features. This is helping bring deep Gulf moisture into the area
with PW values ranging from 1.3 to 1.6 inches, and they will reach
as high as 1.75 to 2 inches (or over 150% of normal) later today. A
plume of convection extends NE from the central Gulf Coast to the FL
panhandle, southern GA and eastern SC, along and north of a stalled
boundary. The northern extent of that convection may affect our far
southern counties late this morning and early this afternoon, and it
is already exhibiting a small amount of lightning. Elsewhere across
central NC, mainly dry conditions are expected until after 18z when
showers and storms will start popping up. The focus of this
convection will likely be a boundary that is currently analyzed over
our far northern counties close to the VA border, separating S winds
and dew points in the upper-60s to lower-70s from E winds and dew
points in the upper-50s to lower-60s.

The CAMS have been consistently showing a W-E oriented line of
showers and storms developing along this boundary that sinks south
this afternoon and evening as the front sinks south, clearing our
area by around 06z. So went with categorical POPs with this line,
and the rain could be heavy at times. 12z HREF PMM totals depict
potential for 1.5 to 2 inches in localized spots. There were
localized spots in the NE Piedmont that received 2+ inches of rain
in the last 24 hours, particularly around northern Durham/Orange and
southern Granville counties. However, these totals were isolated
enough and the high totals today are expected to be isolated enough
to prevent widespread flash flooding. Even still, isolated flash
flooding is certainly possible and the WPC has all of central NC in
a marginal (level 1 of 5) risk for excessive rain. The line will
clear our CWA by around 06z, but isolated showers will still be
possible overnight as the shortwave approaches from the west.

As for the severe threat, SPC also has all of central NC in a
marginal risk for severe storms, with a primary threat of damaging
winds. Not expecting a tornado threat given the very weak 0-1 km
shear of around 5 kts or less. The 0-6 km shear is better but still
marginal for severe weather, around 30-35 kts. Instability will also
be limited somewhat by the widespread cloud cover in place across
the area, but the 12z HREF still shows as much as 1000-1500 J/kg of
SBCAPE by late this afternoon. The greatest instability will be
across our south, while our far northern counties to the north of
the boundary will be mostly stable and the severe threat looks much
lower there.

High temperatures today will range from lower-to-mid-70s in the far
NE to near 80 in the far south. Lows tonight will be upper-50s to
mid-60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 215 AM Saturday...

An upper trough axis directly over central NC Sunday morning will
quickly pivot east and offshore through Sunday night. At the sfc, a
front will continue to move south of our area through late Sunday
morning. Behind the front, high pressure off the northeast coast
will extend cooler nely flow down into our area. Some anomalous PWAT
will linger near the boundary early Sunday warranting some slight to
chance POPs for showers in the forecast through about 18Z (highest
near SC). However, drier air will quickly fill in behind the front
effectively reducing rain chances through the afternoon/evening.
Given the nely flow, however, expecting an extensive stratocu
deck to develop (thickest across the east). As such, highs on Sunday
will cool off nicely into the upper 60s/lower 70s.  Dry weather
continues Sunday night with lows in the mid 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 215 AM Saturday...

Upper pattern through the extended: Mid-level ridging will largely
hold over the eastern US before shifting offshore through Wednesday
evening. The next series of upper troughs will then lift through the
Great Lakes Thursday and potentially the TN Valley on
Friday/Saturday.

Monday through Wednesday: At the sfc, cool nely flow will continue
on Monday as high pressure extends down the eastern seaboard. Expect
dry weather with highs in the mid 70s Monday afternoon.

By Tuesday, the air mass will start to moderate some as flow turns a
bit more ely, and then sely/swly Wednesday into Thursday.  However,
overall Tuesday and Wednesday should be dry with temperatures
warming into the lower to mid 80s.

Thursday/Friday: While the details are uncertain at this point, it
does appear that the conditions will turn hotter and wetter Thursday
into Saturday.  Upper forcing from the approaching troughs along
with pre-frontal/frontal lower-level forcing should produce periods
of rain in this time period. Again, the spatial and temporal details
are hard to discern at this point, but the signal for wetter and
hotter conditions compared to the early part of the extended is
there.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 602 AM Saturday...

An organized band of showers has pushed east of the forecast area
this morning, but scattered showers have developed across the
Sandhills and I will include at least a few hours of VCSH mention at
RDU/RWI/FAY through mid morning. Meanwhile, widespread IFR cigs will
gradually rise to MVFR, then VFR by early afternoon. Later this
afternoon, another round of showers and storms should develop
generally along I-85 and push southward through central NC. Brief
periods of IFR vsbys will be possible within any thunderstorms that
form during the afternoon. Showers are likely to continue into the
evening hours as well, not exiting the area completely until close
to 12Z Sunday.

Outlook: IFR cigs possible once again late tonight into Sunday as a
slow moving boundary moves out of the area. Some moisture will
linger during the day Sunday with at least MVFR cigs possible Sunday
night. A return to VFR is more plausible from Monday onward.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hartfield/Leins
NEAR TERM...Danco
SHORT TERM...Luchetti
LONG TERM...Luchetti
AVIATION...Leins