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000
FXUS62 KRAH 160748
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
348 AM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A backdoor cold front settling across the region this morning will
linger today and then lift north as a warm front tonight and
Wednesday. A weakening cold front will move across the region late
Wednesday with a stronger front expected to move across the area
over the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 325 AM Tuesday...

* A good deal of uncertainty with the coverage and location of
  showers and possible storms late this afternoon and evening.
* SPC has removed the marginal risk of severe storms.

The latest surface analysis shows a cold front dropping south across
central VA early this morning. A weak surface boundary driven
by convection across southeastern VA on Monday evening and into
the overnight is moving across the northern Coastal Plain.
Otherwise, generally fair weather is noted across central NC
early this morning with a few high clouds.

The front across VA is expected to drop south into central NC this
morning and then linger through the day, bisecting the area from
west to east. North of the front, a northeasterly flow will
transport cooler and more stable air into the area while south of
the front, it will be warmer and a bit more unstable. The upper flow
will become a bit more westerly today with a series of disturbances
forecast to move across the area late this afternoon and evening.
The combination of the upper air disturbances and the front should
result in a few showers and storms. NWP guidance has struggled a bit
with this pattern but the best signal is for some showers and a few
storms to develop across the western/southern Piedmont late
this afternoon and then push east across the southern Piedmont
during the evening and perhaps into the Sandhills before
dissipating. The HRRR/Nam Nest and other guidance are centering
in on the southern tier from east of KCLT to near KFAY as the
region with the best instability. The greatest convective
coverage is expected from about 22Z to 02Z but with the
uncertainty have opted to keep PoPs in the chance range. SPC has
backed off the marginal risk that was in place for today likely
resulted from the limited convective coverage and instability
although fairly steep lapse rates could still support a stronger
wind gust or two.

With the cold front extending across the area from west to east,
expect a good spread in max temperatures today with cooler upper 70s
expected across the northern Coastal Plain, the lower 80s in the
Triad and Triangle to the upper 80s near the SC border. Lows tonight
should be moderated by a good deal of cloud cover and a light
southeast wind with lows mainly in the upper 50s to lower 60s. -Blaes

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 340 AM Tuesday...

A short wave ridge axis will move across the Carolinas and VA
early Wednesday morning with a west to southwest flow aloft
expected later Wednesday and Wednesday night. A weak short wave
trough will move east across central NC on Wednesday. At the
surface, the combination of surface high pressure across the
southwestern Atlantic and a decaying cold front moving across
the southern Appalachians will result in a southwesterly low
level flow across the area. Increasing moisture at various
levels will result in an good deal of cloud cover for much of
the period. While forcing for ascent is weak, NWP guidance
suggests there may be a few sprinkles on Wednesday morning with
perhaps a shower or storm possible across the eastern areas
during the afternoon or evening. Highs on Wednesday should range
mainly in the upper 70s to lower 80s although if the cloud
cover is a bit thicker or a little bit more precipitation
develops, high temperatures may not get out of the 70s. Lows on
Wednesday night will mainly range in the lower 60s. -Blaes

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 310 AM Tuesday...

Upper pattern through the extended: Weak mid-level ridging will move
over the southeast Thursday into Friday promoting nwly flow aloft
over central NC.  A series of short-wave perturbations will
periodically pass over central NC Friday through Sunday, followed by
a potentially more vigorous short-wave Monday into Tuesday.

Thursday:  A brief period of drying is expected as flow turns nwly
aloft on Thursday.  Downslope warming will promote another day of
above normal highs in the mid to upper 80s. Decent mixing will
promote wly gusts of up to 20 mph at times Thursday afternoon.

Friday through Sunday: Flow aloft will generally remain wly Friday
through Sunday. However, ensembles are hinting at a few passing
short-waves potentially moving over our area in this time period.
These features could trigger scattered showers and thunderstorms
Friday and Saturday afternoon/evening. Forcing for ascent does like
pretty muted as guidance maximizes mid-level height falls well to
our north. This may limit coverage both afternoons, but scattered
showers and storms appear plausible.

Flow aloft turns a bit more swly Sunday and Monday increasing low-
level moisture advection into the southeast. However, guidance is in
a bit of disagreement wrt to rain and thunderstorm chances in this
period. The GEFS/GFS shunt instability and heavier rain to our
south. Conversely, the Euro/EPS/GEPS are more convectively active
over central NC. For now, maintained high chance to low likely POPs
favoring our southern zones Sunday through Monday.

Temperatures Saturday through Monday will largely depend whether CAD
will set up or not (the raw 18Z GFS has highs in the upper 40s in
the Triad Monday afternoon). For now will favor a blend of cooler
and warmer solutions Sunday and Monday with highs in the mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 255 AM Tuesday...

24 hour TAF period: VFR conditions are generally expected during the
period although there is a small chance of a few showers or perhaps
a thunderstorm late this afternoon and evening.

A back-door cold front will drop into the region early this morning
and then linger across the area. No precipitation and only a few
clouds are expected this morning with VFR conditions dominating.
Light winds will shift to northeasterly behind the front at 7 to 10
kts with a few stronger gusts. Uncertainty is greater than typical
with the potential for a few showers or even a thunderstorm this
afternoon as an upper level disturbance and the lingering front may
provide a focus for some weak convection. The best chance of
precipitation is from 21 to 03 across the Piedmont. Given the
limited confidence have opted to include just a mention of vicinity
showers and no thunderstorms. The front will lift north tonight and
some low stratus may move into southeastern areas toward daybreak
Wednesday, otherwise a mix of mid and high clouds is expected with
the northeast flow become east and southeast overnight.

Outlook: Generally fair weather and VFR conditions are expected for
Wednesday into Friday with perhaps some early morning stratus
possible. Another cold front will approach the area on Friday and
resulting in a chance of some unsettled weather with showers and
perhaps a thunderstorm. &&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Blaes
NEAR TERM...Blaes
SHORT TERM...Blaes
LONG TERM...Luchetti
AVIATION...Blaes