Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 270540 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1140 PM MDT FRI AUG 26 2016

Most vigorous SHRA/TSRA to persist across portions of southeast
and south-central NM through at least 10Z, generally along and
50 mi either side of a line extending from Portales to Roswell to
Dunken. MVFR and IFR conditions will be brief and very localized
with highest confidence for areas immediately near the NM/TX line
and west of KROW. Latest high resolution model data suggests this
activity will quickly diminish just before daybreak although areas
of MVFR/IFR cigs may briefly develop along and east of the Pecos
River Valley. Elsewhere, VFR mid-level cloudiness to increase
during the overnight with bands of -SHRA possible from the Four
Corners SEWD into central areas. Confidence too low to include VC
placeholders for ABQ area terminals. KJ


The coverage of showers and thunderstorms with locally heavy
rainfall will increase through the weekend over central and eastern
New Mexico. A deeper surge of moisture is expected to shift north
out of Mexico Monday through Wednesday of next week. This may become
one of the more impressive plumes of monsoon moisture of the summer
season. This period will see an increasing threat for flash flooding.
Temperatures through the next 5 days will be below normal for most
of New Mexico.


GOES high density winds indicating a 50kt upper level jet moving
across northern NM within the base of a larger scale upper trough
over the western CONUS. This upper level forcing is acting together
with low level convergence along the central mt chain and afternoon
heating to produce a decent crop of storms today. Lower cloud bases
are an indication of improving moisture over the region and will
lead to increasing potential for locally heavy rainfall. The 12Z SPC
SSEO along with the ABQ WRF/TTU WRF and latest HRRR show activity
tonight focusing mainly from the Gila region into the middle RGV
across the high plains and the TX/OK panhandles. Increased POPs
for these areas through the overnight.

The main feature to watch over the coming days is already taking
shape within the aforementioned larger scale upper trough over the
western CONUS. This well defined upper wave is shifting south toward
AZ and model guidance is coming into very good agreement on the wave
becoming nearly stationary over eastern AZ Sunday through Tuesday.
This will allow for stronger upper diffluence beginning Saturday as
deep layer flow backs to the S/SE. 700-500mb layer mixing ratios
surge upward Sunday through Wednesday and model PWs increase to
around 0.75" along the AZ border, 1" in the central valley, and
over 1.5" along the TX border. Several vort maxes are progged to
lift northward from Mexico within this flow pattern and result in
an extended period of high rainfall chances for NM. Raised POP
values rather significantly for much of the first 5 days of the
forecast, which is much closer to the latest MOS and SuperBlend
gridded guidance. It will be interesting to see how the Pecos
basin and larger tributaries for the Rio Grande respond to this
next period of heavy rainfall.

Heavy rain chances may actually remain over the area through the
end of next week. The GFS and ECMWF continue to trend farther east
with a 594dm H5 high drifting slowly west from TX/LA. This would
result in stretching of the monsoon plume over central and western
NM with weak steering flow and strong moisture recycling.



The stream of monsoon moisture over the state will continue through
at least the middle of the coming week as the mid level high
pressure center remains east of New Mexico.  A couple of upper level
weather systems west of NM will help draw moisture into the state
from the south and southeast, causing daily rounds of scattered to
numerous thunderstorms that may linger into the late night hours.
First, an upper low will form over the Great Basin tonight and drift
over AZ Saturday before weakening and drifting southward over the
Baja Peninsula Monday night and Tuesday. An inverted trough will
extend northwestward from this feature over NM leaving our state
susceptible to vertical motion and convection, especially with the
persistent moisture influx underway.  Then, an upper level trough
will deepen on the west coast around mid week, drawing moist low
level air northwestward over NM. Forecast precipitation amounts
tonight through Wednesday call for 1 to over 2 inches of rain across
our southern tier of fire weather zones, with amounts around 0.5 to
1.5 inches farther north, except for lighter amounts around the Four

Due to the cloud cover and precipitation associated with the monsoon
moisture plume, high temperatures are forecast to be near normal to
several degrees below normal for the next 7 days. Low temperatures
will generally range near normal to several degrees above normal.
Minimum humidities will remain above 30%, except for some lower
values near the Four Corners at times. Humidity recoveries will be
good to excellent each night. Haines indices will generally vary
from 2 to 4.





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