Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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971
FXUS65 KABQ 300013 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
613 PM MDT THU SEP 29 2016

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
Low confidence terminal forecast thru the overnight as near-term
and 12Z model guidance poorly captured the current -SHRA/TSRA and
gusty winds moving east across central NM. Followed the 12Z ABQ
WRF model which has lined up the best with current scenario. As
such, mentioned precip thru the entire night at KAEG & KABQ with
potential for it to develop into KSAF as well. -RA to linger thru
06Z for KGUP and KFMN with potential for MVFR to even IFR cigs
before sunrise. Friday looks to be another dynamic day as drier
air invades from the west and scours out moisture in the form of
-SHRA/TSRA with very gusty winds. Greatest confidence area for
precip aft 20Z will stretch from KSJN to KABQ south to KONM and
KSRR.

Guyer

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...327 PM MDT THU SEP 29 2016...
.SYNOPSIS...
As moisture continues northward from the remnants of Roslyn,
showers with embedded thunderstorms will continue favoring areas
west of the central mountain chain through this evening. Shower
activity will then shift eastward Friday impacting western and
central areas. Shower activity will diminish over the weekend as
drier, warmer air filters in from the west just in time for the
start of the Balloon Fiesta. An upper level low churning over the
Great Basin will bring cooler and windier conditions to the state
during the early half of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Current IR satellite imagery shows post tropical cyclone Roslyn
continuing to weaken SE of the Baja Peninsula; whereas the remnant
moisture is persisting northward into central Arizona and western
New Mexico. Current radar imagery shows showers with embedded
thunderstorms across western portions of the state. Storm motion will
be north to northeast around 15 to 20mph. Although 12z PWATS were
below normal, moderate to locally heavy showers will favor western
areas through this evening.

Showers with embedded storms, with aid from subtropical moisture
shifting eastward, will focus across central and northeastern areas
Friday into Friday evening. Over the weekend, 500mb winds will
become westerly helping to usher in drier air into the state
although minimal surface moisture may linger Saturday before
completely drying out Sunday. Expect a warming trend in
temperatures as they gradually climb to near to above normal
readings central and east.

The approaching Pacific low over the Great Basin will dig as it
continues eastward before reaching central Colorado by Tuesday. As
the low digs and heads east, 500mb winds will pick up speed as
they shift southwesterly late Sunday into Monday. By Monday,
a Pacific front will move to the New Mexico/Arizona border. As
the front gains strength, SW winds will become strong and gusty
along the front as it pushes eastward. Meanwhile, a moisture
gradient will set up with the front developing a possible dryline
east of the central mountain chain. Showers will be possible
ahead of the front with potential of thunderstorms near the TX
border late Monday into Tuesday. Cooler temperatures will also
follow behind the front with Tuesday being drier and breezy. Wrap
around moisture from the upper low crossing Colorado could also
develop high mountain snow across the northern mountains according
to the latest GFS model run. If the Euro has it way, the low will
be much farther north over Wyoming with little to no snow chances
across the northern mountains.

32

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Remnant moisture plume from what was once Tropical Storm Roslyn
continues streaming from southwest to northeast across western New
Mexico this afternoon. The northern portion of the plume will
gradually shift east-southeastward tonight and Friday. Favored areas
for showers and thunderstorms Friday will shift to a swath extending
from the southwest mountains northeast to the mid RGV and northeast
highlands/plains.

Dry air will begin filtering in from the west Friday night into
Saturday. Mainly dry condtions with light winds will prevail through
the weekend. A few showers or thunderstorms are possible across the
mountains and far northeast plains Saturday afternoon.

Big changes remain on track for early next week. An unseasonably
strong upper low is forecast to drop southeastward through northern
California Sunday night and then through the southwest Great Basin
Monday morning. Southwest winds out ahead of the upper low and
associated surface cold front will increase markedly Monday. GFS,
ECMWF and Canadian models differ on how whether or not the main low
will track eastward through the northern Rockies (ECMWF and
Canadian) or whether it digs farther south, remains consolidated,
and tracks east through southern UT and CO (GFS). Both ECMWF and
Canadian  bring an upper level short-wave trough through northern NM
around the same time the GFS brings the main closed low through.
Sensible weather from all the models is similar on Monday with all
models brining a surface cold front through western NM Monday
afternoon and through the remainder of the area Monday evening and
Monday night. Strong northwest winds are forecast for Tuesday in the
wake of the system, especially across the central mountain chain
crest eastward.

Models agree that a dry northwest flow aloft will develop over NM
Wednesday through Friday. It appears the westerlies have returned
for more than a brief period and the 2016 North American Monsoon has
ended.

&&

33

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$



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