Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK

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FXAK69 PAFG 041311
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
411 AM AKST Sun Dec 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Aloft...
The long wave trough along the Alcan Border will move east into NW
Canada today. The long wave ridge over the Bering Sea and West
Coast of Alaska will build east over mainland Alaska through
tonight and then slowly evolve into an omega block by Wed with a ridge
over NW Alaska and a trough over southern Alaska and the southwest Bering.
Will see generally clear and cold conditions under the ridge
through the week in the Interior with closer to normal
temperatures along the Arctic and West Coasts.

A short wave trough stretching from McGrath to Barter Island will
move to Minchumina to Old Crow by 3pm Sun...to Denali to Eagle by
3am Mon...and to Denali to Chicken by 3pm Mon...and then
persisting in place through Tue and possibly through late in the
week. Skies are mostly cloudy with stratus and flurries to the
southeast of the trough with temperatures moderated by the clouds.
Along and northwest of the trough skies are clear with
temperatures generally in the 20s and 30s below. The clearing and
cooling will move east across the Interior along and northwest of
the trough.

Surface...
A 1045 mb high over northeast Alaska will build to a 1048 mb
center of the Yukon Flats by 3pm Sun...and to 1050 mb by late
tonight and then persist into Tue and possibly into Wed.

A low in the NE Gulf Of Alaska will move south today and tonight.
An Occluded front stretching from this low to Glennallen to
Northway will dissipate by this afternoon. Light snow along this
front will diminish to flurries by this afternoon. Less than 1
inch of snow will fall with this in zones 226 and southern 224.

The strong gradient between the high and low is causing north
winds gusting to 40 mph and blowing snow through Alaska Range
passes that will decrease through tonight as the low moves south
and the gradient weakens. The high will cause east drainage winds
to develop tonight such down the Tanana Valley and down Rampart
Canyon which will persist through Tue.

A weak surface trough from Point Hope to just NE of Utqiagvik
(Barrow) will move north today. Snow showers along this trough
will move north with the trough.

A 990 mb low in the western Bering Sea will move to Anadyr as a
1005 mb low by 3am Mon...to just west of Wrangel Island by 3pm Mon
and then continue NW. An occluded front stretching from this low
to Cape Navarin with a warm front from Cape Navarin to Cold Bay will
occlude and move to Anadyr to St Matthew Island by 3pm Sun...to
the northern Gulf of Anadyr to just east of St Matthew Island by
3am Mon...to Provideniya to 100 NM E of St Matthew Island by 3pm
Mon...and then weaken in place Mon night. Southeast gales along
and just north of this front will are now occuring and will spread
north with the front through tonight then decrease Mon as the
front starts to weaken. Light Snow ahead of the warm front will
has just spread to St Lawrence Island. Heavier snow will spread to
St Lawrence Island this afternoon and continue through Mon. When
the snow picks up expect Blizzard Conditions to develop at St
Lawrence island this afternoon and continue through Mon. Will
issue Blizzard Warning for this. &&

.DISCUSSION...
At 500 mb and 700 mb models initialize well and show similar
details through Tue. Models remain similar on the long wave
pattern from Wed through next weekend with slight differences in
details. Models Initialize well at surface at 06Z Sun and show
similar solutions through Tue as well.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Blizzard Warning for AKZ213.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.

Gale Warning for PKZ210.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ220-PKZ225.
&&

$$

JB DEC 16


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