Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK

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000
FXAK69 PAFG 251310
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
510 AM AKDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ALOFT...LONG WAVE TROUGH FROM PRUDHOE BAY TO ANCHORAGE WILL PERSIST
THROUGH SAT WHILE A LOW IN THE TROUGH ABOUT 150 MILES NORTHWEST
OF FAIRBANKS ALSO PERSISTS. RIDGE OVER THE BERING SEA WITH SEVERAL
SHORT WAVES MOVING OVER THE TOP. THE FIRST SHORT WAVE OVER THE
GULF OF ANADYR WILL MOVE TO NUNIVAK ISLAND TONIGHT AND THEN
DISSIPATE. THE SECOND SHORT WAVE OVER FAR EAST RUSSIA WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CHUKCHI SEA SUN.

SURFACE...1022 MB HIGH COVERING THE CHUKCHI AND NORTHERN BERING
SEA WILL MOVE EAST AND EXPAND TO A 1025 MB CENTER NORTH OF BARROW
SAT AM WHICH THEN DRIFTS NORTHEAST. COLD FRONT FROM INUVIK CANADA
TO FORT YUKON TO EIELSON AIR FORCE BASE TO DENALI PARK WILL MOVE
TO EAGLE TO GULKANA THROUGH 4AM SAT...AND TO DAWSON TO NORHTWAY
THROUGH 4AM SUN. WARM FRONT FROM THE GULF OF ANADYR EXTENDING
SOUTHEAST WILL MOVE EAST TO EXTEND FROM THE BERING STRAIT TO
BETHEL AT 4PM SAT...WITH A 1009 MB LOW DEVELOPING NEAR THE BERING
STRAIT 4AM SUN.

MODELS...AGREE FAIRLY WELL THROUGH SAT THEN SOME DIFFERENCES
ALOFT BY SUNDAY ON HOW THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WEAKENS. IN THE MEDIUM
TERM THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN FAVOR THE TROUGH SPLITTING AND MOVING
OFF TO THE NORTH WITH A RESULTANT LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA THAT
PRODUCES EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR. THE GFS
HOWEVER MAINTAINS THE LONG WAVE TROUGH AND DRIFTS IT EAST TO NEAR
TO CANADA.

NORTH SLOPE...THE UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL INTERIOR WILL
PRODUCE SOME PRECIPITATION TODAY OVER THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE
EASTERN BROOKS RANGE THOUGH EXPECT ONLY AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION ABOVE 2000 FEET...AND REMAINING RAIN AT THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. THE RAIN AND SNOW WILL DIMINISH TODAY WITH SOME MINOR
AMOUNTS CONTINUING SAT EAST OF THE SAG RIVER. COASTAL WINDS
SWITCHING TO EASTERLY BY SAT AM AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO
NORTHEAST OF BARROW...BUT REMAINING BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

WESTERN ALASKA...THE SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTH BERING SEA
WILL BRING SOME RAIN TO SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND TODAY AND POSSIBLY
THE YUKON DELTA TONIGHT. THE SECOND WAVE WILL SPREAD RAIN ACROSS
THE REMAINING COASTAL AREAS LATE SAT AND SAT NIGHT...INTO THE
LOWER KOBUK VALLEY AND LOWER AND MIDDLE YUKON VALLEY AND YUKON
DELTA ON SUN.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...RAIN FROM ARCTIC VILLAGE...FORT
YUKON AND EIELSON EASTWARD TO NEAR EAGLE TO PAXSON TODAY. HEAVY
RAIN POSSIBLE IN THE EASTERN ALASKA RANGE FROM THE RICHARDSON
HIGHWAY WEST TODAY. THIS BAND OF RAIN WILL DRIFT EAST WITH THE
COLD FRONT TONIGHT WHILE DIMINISHING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH
SATURDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ELSEWHERE TODAY....WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE CANADA BORDER OVER THE UPPER TANANA VALLEY.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WHILE CONDITIONS ARE DRYING OVER THE WESTERN
INTERIOR...THE COOL AIRMASS UNDER THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL KEEP
HUMIDITIES HIGH. ISOLATED WET THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER
THE UPPER TANANA VALLEY...EAST OF THE COLD FRONTAL RAIN BAND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...OVERNIGHT RAINFALL ACROSS THE ALASKA RANGE...AND
MORE EXPECTED TODAY...WILL CAUSE STREAMS THERE TO RUN HIGH INTO
THE WEEKEND. MODEL RAINFALL AMOUNTS CONTINUE TO BE QUITE HIGH OVER
THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE ALASKA RANGE...SO THIS BEARS WATCHING.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210.
&&

$$

JL JUL 14


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