Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK

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FXAK69 PAFG 042013
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1213 PM AKDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS INITIALIZED WELL AND VERIFIED WELL AGAINST THE 12Z
ANALYSIS. MODELS CONTINUE TO PERFORM WELL IN THE THE SHORT RANGE
BUT CONTINUE TO DISPLAY LARGE SPREAD BOTH BETWEEN MODEL FAMILIES
AND FROM RUN TO RUN IN BOTH THE MID RANGE AND IN THE LONG RANGE.

ALOFT AT 500 HPA...A 543 DAM LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN
BERING SEA WILL MOVES SOUTH AND EAST TO BE LOCATED OVER THE
CENTRAL BERING SEA AS A 548 DAM LOW SATURDAY MORNING AND THEN AS A
552 DAM LOW OVER BRISTOL BAY SUNDAY MORNING. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH AND EAST OVER KODIAK ISLAND SUNDAY
EVENING AND INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA MONDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER 543 DAM LOW MOVES INTO THE WESTERN BERING SEA AS A DEEP
TROUGH DIVES SOUTH AND EAST TOWARD THE NORTHWEST COAST MONDAY
MORNING. THESE TWO FEATURES PHASE WELL TUESDAY CREATING A DEEP
COLD LONG WAVE TROUGH ALONG A BARROW TO ST PAUL ISLAND AXIS.

ON THE SURFACE A 1009 MB LOW OVER THE CENTRAL BERING CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN AND WILL MOVE ON SHORE SATURDAY MORNING NEAR UNALAKLEET
AND MERGE WITH THE REMNANTS OF A WEAK FRONT OVER THE YK DELTA WHICH
IS CURRENTLY PRODUCING LIGHT RAIN OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY OVER THE SOUTHERN
WESTERN INTERIOR AND WEST COAST AS THIS FRONT CONTINUES TO
DISSIPATE. DRY AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR THROUGH THE WEEKEND NORTH OF A LINE
FROM TOK TO FAIRBANKS TO NOME.

FOCUS CONTINUES TO CENTER ON STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST
OUT OF THE HIGH ARCTIC AND ONTO THE NORTH SLOPE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL INTERIOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR POTENTIAL FOR HIGH SURF ALONG
THE NORTHWEST COAST BEGINNING TUESDAY AND CONTINUING WEDNESDAY AS
MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHWEST ON SHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW IN THE
BROOKS RANGE LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW MAY
ADD TO SNOW TOTALS ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE INTO
WEDNESDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE DROPPING OVER THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL INTERIOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY HOWEVER ONLY LIGHT PRECIP
IS EXPECTED WITH MINIMAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ANTICIPATED OVER THE
WESTERN INTERIOR AT THIS TIME.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE
CONTINUE TO MONITOR POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS ALONG THE NORTHWEST COAST DEVELOPING TUESDAY AND CONTINUING
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.



&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NONE

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

$$

CCC SEP 15


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