Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK

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FXAK69 PAFG 292108
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
108 PM AKDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...INITIALIZE WELL AGAIN TODAY WITH GOOD RUN TO RUN
CONTINUITY THROUGH THE MID RANGE. A BLEND OF THE MODELS WILL BE
USED FOR THE SHORT TERM AGAIN TODAY. STILL SOME CONCENSUS IN THE
EXTENDED PERIODS WITH THE MODELS KEEPING A LOW OVER THE HIGH
ARCTIC...AS IT PINBALLS AROUND...WITH RIDGING OVER THE PACIFIC
AND ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE STATE.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...512 DAM CLOSED LOW OVER 73N 165W WILL
PINBALL AROUND TO BE NEAR 75N 165W BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THEN
REMAIN QUASI STATIONARY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. CYCLONIC FLOW
WILL REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA INTO NEXT WEEK. A SHORTWAVE
WILL MOVE OVER THE WEST COAST DURING THE DAY SATURDAY MOVING TO
LIE OVER WAINWRIGHT TO NOATAK TO NOME TO NUNIVAK ISLAND BY
SATURDAY EVENING...THEN CONTINUE TO EAST TO LIE FROM OVER PRUDHOE
BAY TO ARCTIC VILLAGE TO MANLEY HOT SPRINGS TOKING SALMON BY
SUNDAY MORNING...THEN EXIT THE INTERIOR BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
AT 850 HPA...ZERO ISOTHERM WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN WORK NORTH IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
WHICH WILL PUSH IT SOUTH OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY.

SURFACE...WEAK TROUGHING REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR THROUGH
THE EVENING THEN EXITS EAST. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ASSOCIATED
WITH AT 1012MB CENTER OVER ST LAWRENCE ISLAND WILL WORK IN OVER
THE INTERIOR BY SATURDAY MORNING. 993MB LOW IN THE HIGH ARCTIC
WILL KEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER THE COASTAL AREAS AS IT PINBALLS
AROUND REMAINING IN THE SAME GENERAL AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. THE RIDGING OVER THE INTERIOR WILL BE PUSHED SOUTH AS
A WEATHER FRONT MOVES OVER THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA SATURDAY NIGHT
AND OVER THE WEST COAST ON SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH
SOUTH THROUGH MONDAY THEN PULL OUT TO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY
MORNING WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN BEHIND IT.

ARCTIC COAST...WITH THE LOW REMAINING JUST NORTH OF THE COAST INTO
NEXT WEEK THERE WILL BE A MIXED BAG OF WEATHER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. EXPECT PERIODS OF SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS...LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG...SOME CLEARING...BREEZY CONDITIONS. TIMING WHEN ANY OF THESE
WILL OCCUR IS IMPOSSIBLE FOR THE MOST PART. WE DO HAVE A HANDLE
ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT WHICH WILL BRING THE SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING
THROUGH SUNDAY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST AT
10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS TO 30 MPH AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A LITTLE SATURDAY...THEN FALL AS
THE COLD AIR IS REINFORCED BEHIND THE FRONT. LOOK FOR ANOTHER
BOUT OF SNOW IN THE BROOKS RANGE THAT COULD BRING ANOTHER 2 TO 4
INCHES.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN OVER THE COAST AND WORKING INTO THE INTERIOR TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL BE NORTHWEST 5 TO 15 MPH IN KOTZEBUE SOUND AREA...AND LIGHT
SOUTH OF THERE THROUGH SATURDAY. FRONT MOVING TO THE COAST
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO MOST OF
THE AREA AND SOME GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL
REBOUND A LITTLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY THEN FALL ON MONDAY AFTER
THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA.

INTERIOR...SHOWERS ENDING BY EARLY EVENING...THEN SOME CLEARING
WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING OVERNIGHT TO 20 TO 35 DEGREES. COLDEST
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NORTH OF THE YUKON RIVER. PARTLY CLOUDY OVER
MOST OF THE AREA SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD TEMPERATURES
ON SUNDAY MORNING. INCREASING CLOUDS SUNDAY AS THE NEXT FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BUT PASSES IN THE ALASKA RANGE COULD SEE SOME GUSTY
NORTH WINDS. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES DEVELOPMENT OF
FOG OVER THE AREA WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE RIVERS
AND OVER THE FLATS IN THE MORNINGS.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NORTHWEST WINDS AND WAVES
PERSIST OVER THE NORTHWEST COAST...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...RIVERS WILL REMAIN WELL WITHIN THEIR BANKS.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FROST ADVISORY FOR AKZ222.

&&

$$

SDB AUG 14



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