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000
FXAK69 PAFG 191039
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
239 AM AKDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.DISCUSSION...
ALOFT...THE MAJORITY OF ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WITH AXIS FROM WRANGEL ISLAND TO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND CONTINUES TO
LIFT TO THE NORTH WHILE SOME ENERGY IN THE BOTTOM OF THE TROUGH
DOES MOVE NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND SOUTHERN ALASKA.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA MONDAY. THE RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BUILD NORTH TO COVER MOST OF MAINLAND ALASKA BY MID
WEEK. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH LARGE SCALE FEATURES WITH THE RIDGE OVER MAINLAND ALASKA AND
MULTIPLE LOW CENTERS OVER THE BERING SEA.

SURFACE...THE LOW CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL YUKON CONTINUES TO
MOVE NORTHEAST TODAY WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOW OVER THE EASTERN
INTERIOR AND EASTERN BROOKS RANGE EXPECTED TO WIND DOWN BY MID
DAY. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR TODAY
WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF RECORD BREAKING LOW TEMPERATURES LIKELY.
INCREASING CLOUDS IN THE WESTERN INTERIOR. MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TODAY ON THE NORTH SLOPE.

WEATHER FOCUS TURNS TO THE WEST COAST TODAY ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
SEWARD PENINSULA AND POINTS NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS MOISTURE
RUNNING ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF SURFACE RIDGE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
ALASKA MOVES IN. SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHEAST MOVING SHORT WAVE
IS ONGOING OVER MUCH OF THE WEST COAST NORTH OF THE SEWARD
PENINSULA. GENERALLY 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW ARE ARE EXPECTED TODAY.
NEXT SHORT WAVE MOVES IN TONIGHT WITH WARNING LEVEL SNOW EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP TONIGHT IN ZONES 207 AND 208 WHERE UPSLOPE WILL
ENHANCE. ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW EXPECTED IN ZONES 217 AND 209.
WARNING LEVEL SNOW IS NOT EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE
SEWARD PENINSULA WHERE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MIX WITH THE SNOW
MONDAY AS THE ZERO LINE AT 850 MB MOVES INTO NORTON SOUND. WILL
NEED TO MONITOR AS MODEL QPF AMOUNTS OF OVER ONE HALF INCH WOULD
APPROACH WARNING CRITERIA FOR SNOW ALONG THE SOUTHERN SEWARD
PENINSULA IF ALL QPF FELL AS SNOW.

MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING ACROSS THE INTERIOR TO SEASONAL LEVELS BY MID TO LATE WEEK
AND POSSIBLY RISING TO ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEKEND.



&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NONE

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WATCH FOR THE YUKON RIVER AT CIRCLE REMAINS IN EFFECT
THROUGH TUESDAY AND A FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM
SUNDAY FOR THE CHENA RIVER DOWN RIVER FROM NORDALE ROAD BRIDGE AND
UP RIVER FROM FORT WAINWRIGHT.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ207-AKZ208-AKZ218.

FLOOD WATCH FOR AKZ220.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ209-AKZ217-AKZ224.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ245.
&&

$$

CCC MAY 13