Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
000
FXAK69 PAFG 110123
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
423 PM AKST WED FEB 10 2016

.DISCUSSION...

LITTLE TO DISCUSS WITH ANY CHANGES TO THE LONG WAVE
PATTERN...WITH PERSISTENT TROUGHING IN THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA
AND DOWNSTREAM RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS EXTENDING
NORTHWESTWARD INTO SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA. A 525 DM UPPER CUTOFF LOW
WAS OBSERVED OVER THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE...WHICH IS SLOWLY
MOVING WESTWARD AFTER STATIONARY OR EASTWARD MOVEMENT OVER THE
NORTH SLOPE FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS. AT THE SURFACE...1044 MB HIGH
REMAINS CENTERED JUST WEST OF THE CANADIAN ARCHIPELAGO. BROAD LOW
PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED NEAR 49N 155W IN THE WESTERN GULF WITH
SEVERAL EMBEDDED CENTERS ROTATING AROUND THE PARENT CIRCULATION.

12Z MODEL RUN IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT 60 HOURS...WITH
SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN THE LARGER SCALE FEATURES THROUGH ABOUT
120 HOURS. FOR THE SHORTER TERM...UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN
BROOKS RANGE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD...TO BE OVER NORTHWESTERN
ALASKA AT AROUND 510 DM BY 3 PM FRI. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT
NORTHWESTWARD FROM PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED BROAD LOW IN THE GULF
TONIGHT...CROSSING THE ALASKA RANGE AROUND 3 PM THU...CROSSING THE
BROOKS RANGE BY AROUND 3AM FRI AND BEING ABORBED BY THE LOW IN NW
ALASKA. THE NW ALASKA LOW IS PROGGED TO REMAIN STATIONARY NEAR
POINT HOPE THIS WEEKEND...WITH RIDGING REMAINING OVER THE EASTERN
INTERIOR INTO THIS WEEKEND. A SECOND WEAKER SHORT WAVE WILL EJECT
OUT OF THE GULF...TO MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN INTERIOR
AND THE YUKON ON SATURDAY.

NORTH SLOPE...EMBEDDED TROUGHS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW WILL
SWING FROM EAST TO WEST OVER THE NORTH SLOPE LATE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...WHICH WILL PROVIDE THE REGION WITH PERIODS OF FLURRIES
AND SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. THE FALLING SNOW IN
COMBINATION WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE ARCTIC COAST
WILL KEEP WINDS THERE BETWEEN 15 TO 25 MPH THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY...LEADING TO VISIBILITIES BELOW A MILE A TIMES IN BLOWING
SNOW. CURRENTLY EXPECTING VISIBILITIES TO PREDOMINANTLY REMAIN
ABOVE ONE HALF MILE...WITH NO MAJOR INCREASES IN WIND SPEED OR
PRECIPITATION INTENSITY ANTICIPATED...SO WILL HOLD OFF ON WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY HEADLINES FOR NOW. WILL HAVE TO WATCH IF THIS
TREND CONTINUES FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH ADDITIONAL PIECES OF
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY EXPECTED OF AFFECT THE NORTH SLOPE...ALTHOUGH
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOKS TO RELAX ON THE ARCTIC COAST FOR A BIT
ON FRIDAY.

WEST COAST...NO REAL SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO SPEAK OF FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. A WEATHER FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ALASKA RANGE ON THURSDAY...WILL MOVE
FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA ON THURSDAY
AND INTO THE WEST INTERIOR THURSDAY NIGHT...SLOWING AND BECOMING
NEARLY STATIONARY ON THE WEST COAST BY SATURDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL
BRING AT LEAST A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE WEST COAST ZONES
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH SNOW AMOUNTS AROUND AN INCH OR TWO FOR
THE EVENT. THE FRONT WILL BECOME MORE DISORGANIZED AS IT MOVES TO
THE WEST COAST. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST TO AROUND 25 MPH
THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY THURSDAY FOR THE LOWER YUKON
VALLEY BEFORE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEFORE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
THERE RELAXES SOMEWHAT.

INTERIOR...A WEATHER FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD
THROUGH THE EAST AND CENTRAL INTERIOR TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING NORTH OUT OF THE
GULF OF ALASKA. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW TO
THE REGION THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH ABOUT 1 TO 2 INCHES
ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM MINCHUMINA TO ARCTIC VILLAGE.
ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE TANANA
VALLEY AND GREATER FAIRBANKS AREA AT THIS TIME...AS STRONG WINDS
OVER THE ALASKA RANGE WILL CREATE A SHADOW EFFECT DOWNSTREAM.

WINDS...LOCAL GUSTS ON SUMMITS ARE EXPECTED FOR ZONES 219...220
AND 221 TONIGHT BEFORE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS
SOMEWHAT...AS 982 MB LOW SHIFTS WESTWARD AROUND THE PARENT
CIRCULATION TOWARD BRISTOL BAY. A CHINOOK FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE ALASKA RANGE IN RESPONSE TO THE SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE ALASKA RANGE
TOMORROW. FREQUENT GUSTS TO 40 TO 45 MPH ARE EXPECTED IN PASSES
AND NEAR DELTA JUNCTION DUE TO DEVELOPING TANANA VALLEY JET.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ245.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235-
PKZ240.
&&

$$

NTS FEB 16


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.