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FXAK67 PAJK 140536
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
936 PM AKDT Sun Jul 13 2025

.UPDATE...6z Aviation Discussion

&&

.SHORT TERM.../Through Monday night/... The previous low
pressure impacting the southern panhandle has almost completely
dissipated, but not before continuing light rain and lower
ceilings for the central and southern panhandle through the
afternoon. An upper level low situated over the northern panhandle
has slowly moved south through the day, pulling in drier air and
clearing up skies in its wake. By the end of the day Sunday, a
majority of the panhandle will look more clear and dry. These
conditions will continue into Monday, with partly cloudy skies and
warming temperatures. Highs in the mid to upper 60s and lows in
the 50s will accompany this much needed good weather. Some areas
may even see temps reach the 70s tomorrow. Winds remain light with
most areas at 15 kts or less.

Tonight we will mainly be looking at marine layer low clouds
forming over a good portion of the gulf. Boundary layer RH
guidance indicates that these clouds will likely not make much
headway into the northern inner channels tonight (likely only
getting to Gustavus through Icy Strait) due to some offshore flow
there, but the southern inner channels may see low cloud advance
as far as Wrangell, Petersburg, and Clarence Strait. With the
clearer skies and low winds tonight, some fog is also likely for
the panhandle, especially for the central and southern areas where
the atmosphere has not had a chance to dry out from recent rains
yet.

.LONG TERM.../Wednesday through Sunday/...

Key messages:
 Building ridge blocking panhandle from main storm flow flattening
to more zonal flow by Friday across the Gulf.

Details:
Ridge that builds up over the central gulf by Wednesday looks to
hang one while possibly letting a trough to run over the top of
the ridge late Wed and early Thursday. Models have slightly
differing strength on this, but have gone with a weak trough over
the northeast panhandle, and then models suggesting a fairly flat
zonal flow developing Friday to weekend.

Precipitation Wednesday primarily for the Northeast Gulf Coast,
and then just slight change ( 20 PoP or less into the panhandle )
Thursday to the weekend. Flow pattern may direct shortwaves to
the panhandle for the weekend, but Timing may be an issue that wee
need to watch. No significant feature is expected to the weekend
at this time.

&&

.AVIATION.../ Through Monday evening / Building ridge over the
central Gulf will move flow pattern away from the SE Alaska over
next few days. For tonight, the southern half of the panhandle
still has widespread MVFR CIGs AOA 1500 ft. However, ridging aloft
with some drying has lead to some breaks down south. Expect to
see these clouds move out overnight.

Overall winds should be light tonight, with sea breezes forming over
the coastal areas on Monday. A marine layer is expected to develop
in the NE gulf coast, which is expected to advance over Yakutat
and into Icy Strait to cover Gustavus. With this layer, IFR
conditions are expected to develop over these TAF sites. There is
the possibility that this cloud deck could move into Sitka,
although Kruzof Island will keep most of the cloud deck from
moving in.

&&

.MARINE...

Outside: A ridge of high pressure in the Gulf will keep more
clear, dry weather in the forecast. Light and gentle northwesterly
breezes (4 to 10 kts) prevail through Monday afternoon before
picking up to moderate to fresh breezes (11 to 21 kts) as the
ridge begins to tighten. Wave heights slowly decrease from 6 ft to
around 4 ft before beginning to pick back up again with the
higher wind speeds. Very light southwesterly swell through the
period. A marine boundary layer is looking to develop in the gulf
and along the coast with the clearing skies and warming
temperatures.

Inside: The ridging over the gulf has helped to clear out skies
and calm conditions in the channels. Onshore flow continues for a
majority of the panhandle with Clarence Strait being the only
exception. Expecting comparatively warmer temperatures and sea
breezes to develop late morning to early afternoon tomorrow. This
means that Icy Strait, Point Couverden, Point Craven, and Lynn
Canal are expected to increase up to 15-20 knots. Southern
Clarence Strait will also increase tomorrow night as the pressure
gradient begins to tighten over the panhandle and funnels the wind
into Dixon Entrance. Fog is possible tonight in Icy and Clarence
straights, potentially reaching Wrangell and Petersburg as the
marine layer attempts to push inland.

A marine layer could develop tomorrow evening, causing changes in
wind speed in Icy Strait and visibility impacts to the outer
coast and entrances to the inner waters; however confidence is low
at this time.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZTK
LONG TERM....Bezenek
AVIATION...NC
MARINE...ZTK

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