Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
FXAK67 PAJK 242353
Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
353 PM AKDT Mon Oct 24 2016
.SHORT TERM...Forecast is running on track and the model runs this
morning are maintaining the current thinking.
A trough dissipated over the northern panhandle today and the few
showers have ended with clearing of the mid level clouds. This
will put a little more low level moisture in the area... but with
drier outflow do not think fog will be an issue.
A large low is moving slowly north along 130 west to a nearly
quasi stationary position to the southwest of Haida Gwaii by
Tuesday afternoon. High pressure continues to build into Northwest
Canada, and as such the pressure gradient in the panhandle is
increasing and should see the gale persist over the Lynn Canal
Marine waters Tonight and Tuesday.
The bigger forecast item is the High Wind Warning for the Taku
Wind event tonight and Tuesday, continues to look like favorable.
Expect the gusts to develop late tonight and continue through the
Only small changes were made to the forecast today.
.LONG TERM...The forecast remains unchanged but quiet trends in
the models were detectable. First the low offshore of Haida Gwaii
mentioned above may take a more westward track into the central
gulf and potentially will fall apart quicker. This would also
decrease both wind and shower opportunities for the south in the
near mid-range. However, another wave will move up behind. This
one may follow a track closer to the Panhandle. While we carry a
chance of rain for Thursday and Friday for much of the south, the
NAM now is carrying a deformation band as far north as Juneau by
Thursday evening. Will this make up the record October
precipitation deficit? Time will tell. But the southern and
central coastal areas of Southeast still look to receive the best
shots of rain in the near term.
Friday and Saturday looks drier than our current forecast with
much lighter gradients and wind. The uncertainty begins Sunday
into Halloween day...when a potent system well to our west
potentially drives a wave into the western gulf. Any onshore flow
that sets up has a potential to carry at least a chance of rain.
And the GFS in particular indicate some sort of pre-system wave
sliding across as early as Sunday. Fans of a dry October and those
wishing for records to be broken may be chewing their nails on
Halloween at any rain that does set in across the Panhandle.
We only made small local effect changes. The forecast is in good
PUBLIC...High Wind Warning from midnight tonight to 4 PM AKDT Tuesday for
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ012-013-051.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011-021-022-031>033-041>043.
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