Area Forecast Discussion
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FXAK67 PAJK 242337
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
337 PM AKDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...A LOW ABOUT 150 NM W OF HAIDA GWAII WILL SLOWLY
WEAKEN AND BEGIN TO DRIFT SE SAT. A TROF WILL EXTEND NW FROM THE
LOW INTO THE EASTERN GULF...BUT GRADUALLY WEAKEN THRU SAT. USED
THE 12Z NAM FOR THE TONIGHT AND SAT PERIODS AS IT HAD A GOOD
HANDLE ON THE MAIN FEATURES.

MAIN FORECAST ISSUES WILL BE PRECIP POTENTIAL...WINDS...AND FOG
POTENTIAL. RIGHT NOW A BAND OF SHOWERS IS OVER THE CENTRAL
PANHANDLE...WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE S. ALSO...A NARROW
BAND OF SHOWERS IS FORMING NEAR PAYA. THE BAND OF SHOWERS OVER THE
CENTRAL AREA WILL DRIFT NNW TONIGHT...EVENTUALLY MOVING OFFSHORE
AND N OF THE MAIN PART OF THE PANHANDLE SAT. THE SMALL BAND OF
SHOWERS DEVELOPING NEAR PAYA WILL REMAIN THERE THIS EVENING THEN
DIMINISH SOMEWHAT LATER TONIGHT. THE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE
SRN HALF OF THE AREA WILL DIMINISH OVER ALL BUT THE FAR SRN AND
ADJACENT COASTAL AREAS TONIGHT. INCREASING NLY FLOW WILL DRY
THINGS OUT OVER MUCH OF THE PANHANDLE DURING THE DAY SAT...BUT
SOME SHOWERS WILL REMAIN OVER THE ERN GULF/NE GULF COAST AREAS.

AS FOR WINDS...STRONGEST WINDS ARE OVER THE SE GULF AND SRN INNER
CHANNELS. THEY HAVE SE 20-30 KT WINDS RIGHT NOW...AND THESE WINDS
WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL PROBABLY DROP BELOW SCA
LEVELS OVER THE SE GULF BY SAT MORNING...AND BY LATE TONIGHT OVER
THE SRN INNER CHANNELS. ALSO HAVE AROUND 20 KT OF E-NE WIND THRU
CROSS SOUND AND WRN ICY STRAIT...AND THIS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH SAT.
THE MORE N-S CHANNEL WINDS OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE AREA WILL
SLOWLY PICK UP TONIGHT AS GRADIENT ORIENTATION BECOMES MORE
FAVORABLE FOR THOSE CHANNELS...BUT DO NOT EXPECT MORE THAN 20 KT
THERE. FINALLY...LOOKS LIKE A NARROW BAND OF E-SE 15-20 KT WINDS FROM
THE PAYA AREA WWD OVER THE NRN GULF. THIS BAND WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH THROUGH SAT.

AS FOR FOG POTENTIAL...INCREASING BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL ALLOW
FOR SOME FOG TO FORM OVER THE ERN INNER CHANNELS TONIGHT IN WIND
SHELTERED AREAS. DENSITY OF THE FOG WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE
THOUGH DUE TO NEARBY WINDS ALOFT. IF THE DEPTH OF LIGHT WINDS WAS
DEEPER AND MORE WIDESPREAD...WOULD BE A DECENT DENSE FOG EVENT.
THE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE SAT MORNING.

OTHERWISE...CLOUDS WILL BE DECREASING OVER THE ERN AREAS SAT AS
INCREASING OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE A
FEW DEGREES HIGHER SAT THAN THEY WERE TODAY.

.LONG TERM...DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
NEXT WEEK.

 THE START OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL FEATURE A WEAK
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF. THIS MEANS PRETTY TRANQUIL WEATHER
OVER THE PANHANDLE FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
BECOME ISOLATED WITH DECREASING SKY COVER THROUGH THE NIGHT. ON
SUNDAY AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
GULF INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. THIS WILL CREATE MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

 ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE, A SHARP BUT
SKINNY RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY.
AT THE SAME TIME, THE REMNANT OF TROPICAL STORM ANA WILL HEAD EAST
TOWARDS VANCOUVER ISLAND. THE COMBINATION OF THESE WEATHER SYSTEMS
WILL CREATE A NORTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT. WITH NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW, DO EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE.
THERE WILL STILL BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE EXTREME
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE FROM THE OUTER FRINGES OF FORMER TROPICAL STORM
ANA.

 BEYOND NEXT MONDAY, THE WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS SLOW TO CHANGE.
THERE WILL BE HIGHER PRESSURE OVER THE INTERIOR, WITH LOWER
PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS PATTERN WILL FEATURE
GENERALLY NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE AREA, PROMOTING DRIER THAN
NORMAL CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE FAIRLY SEASONABLE, WITH
HIGHS IN THE 40S, AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. FOR THE NORTHERN
AREAS, THE OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BELOW 32 F FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SNOW WILL MIX IN FOR HIGHER ELEVATION LOCATIONS
AND DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.

 FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOUT AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. FORECAST CONFIDENCE THEN DECREASES TO BELOW
AVERAGE BEYOND THAT. VARIOUS WEATHER MODELS START TO DIVERGE IN
THEIR SOLUTION STARTING EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEY AGREE THAT THERE
WILL BE A GENERAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF ALASKA.
HOWEVER, THEY ARE STRUGGLING TO PROVIDE THE DETAILS SUCH AS THE
INDIVIDUAL DISTURBANCES MOVING UP TOWARDS THE PANHANDLE. THESE
DISTURBANCES WILL LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN WIND AND
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ033-035-036-041-042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ043.

&&

$$

RWT/RCL

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