Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 102345
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
645 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL...CONTINUED LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND COLD.

NORTHERN MI REMAINS BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE IN NEW ENGLAND...AND HIGH
PRESSURE NOSING SE-WARD FROM CENTRAL CANADA. TROFFING REMAINS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE LAKES REGION...PRODUCED IN PART BY THE GREAT
LAKES THEMSELVES. A SLIGHT TENDENCY FOR THIS TROFFING TO RELAX
TONIGHT AS RIDGING TO OUR WEST BECOMES STRONGER. THAT WILL BACK
1000-850MB WINDS EVER SO SLIGHTLY...TO A BORDERLINE NW/NNW BY
MIDNIGHT. LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUES IN NW LOWER...AND VERY SMALL
PORTIONS OF NE LOWER (ROGERS TO APN) AND EASTERN UPPER (FAR
WESTERN MACK). ONGOING ACTIVITY APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN SOMEWHAT
DISRUPTED BY DIURNAL HEATING (SUCH AS IT IS). SNOW TRENDS ARE THE
MAIN CONCERN.

THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING SHOW ALLOW FOR SOME REORGANIZATION
TOWARD LATE EVENING...THOUGH A CONTINUED DEEPLY DRY AIRMASS WILL
KEEP THINGS FROM GETTING INSANELY OUT OF LINE. LATEST HRRR RUN LINES
UP NICELY WITH RECENT RADAR/OB TRENDS AND PREVIOUS FORECAST
THINKING. IN PARTICULAR...DOMINANT BANDS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TO SET
UP EITHER SIDE OF TVC. LOCALIZED 4-6 INCH ACCUMS AGAIN LIKELY...
PERHAPS EVEN HIGHER. PRESSURE GRADIENT DOES RELAX A BIT TONIGHT.
COMBINED WITH LOSS OF HEATING/MIXING...WINDS EVERYWHERE BUT
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE WILL TREND DOWNWARD. SO WILL SEE LESS
IN THE WAY OF BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW.

WITH THE ABOVE TRENDS...HEALTHY SNOW AMOUNTS BUT LESS WIND/BLSN...
WILL REPLACE THE ONGOING WARNINGS WITH ADVISORIES. THE CURRENT
ADVISORY COUNTIES WILL REMAIN AS SUCH. ALL ADVISORIES WILL RUN THRU
NOON THURSDAY.

ELSEWHERE...SHSN WILL CONTINUE TO PESTER ROGERS CITY/APN AREA...WITH
1-3 INCH ACCUMS THERE. THE SLIGHT BACKING TO THE WINDS WILL PUSH
SHSN INTO FAR WESTERN CHIP AS WELL AS MACK...WITH 1-3 INCH ACCUMS
ALSO REASONABLE THERE. OUTSIDE OF THE SNOWBELTS...CURRENT CLOUD
COVER HAS A STRONG DIURNAL COMPONENT...AND ANTICIPATE AT LEAST
PARTIAL CLEARING JUST EAST OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR IN BOTH PENINSULAS.

MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 10F IN NW LOWER NEAR LAKE
MI...TO NEARLY -10F AT THE SAULT. HAVE GONE BELOW GUIDANCE MIN TEMPS
WHERE PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: FULL-LATITUDE LONG WAVE TROUGH DOMINATES
EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WITH HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGING ALONG THE WEST
COAST AND UP INTO ALASKA OPENING THE DOOR FOR ARCTIC AIR TO PLUNGE
INTO THE EASTERN CONUS.  PATTERN BREAKS NEXT WEEK WITH RISING
HEIGHTS AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: CONTINUED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...SNOW ALONG THE NEXT COLD FRONT FRIDAY WITH
MORE SNOW SHOWERS/BLOWING SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT.  LOW WIND CHILLS FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

THURSDAY...THERMAL TROUGH BE EAST OF MICHIGAN BY THURSDAY
MORNING...AND BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WEAKENS AS PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES.  INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL DECREASE AS MORE SUBSIDENCE WORKS
INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN.  SNOW SHOWERS TO START THE DAY WEST OF I-75
AND POSSIBLY FAR NORTHEAST LOWER /PRESQUE ISLE-ALPENA/.  WINDS
GRADUALLY BACK THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH THE CHANGING WIND DIRECTION
LIKELY FANNING OUT THE SNOW SHOWERS AND ALSO BRINGING THEM EASTWARD
TOWARD THE I-75 CORRIDOR.  WE MAY ALSO SEE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS MOVE BACK INTO CHIPPEWA COUNTY AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE
WESTERLY.  WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANY LAKE VORTEX DEVELOPMENT GIVEN
THE WEAKENING BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...WHICH COULD DISRUPT THE BANDING.
A FEW ADDITIONAL INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIEST BANDS.

LOW LEVEL WINDS NEARLY DUE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL DICTATE
THE ORIENTATION OF THE SNOW BANDS...FOCUSING ON THE M-32 CORRIDOR.
SECONDARY PUSH OF COLD AIR DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTH EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR/UPPER MICHIGAN DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS FRIDAY.  CONVERGENCE/FRONTOGENESIS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY RAISES
SOME CONCERNS ABOUT SNOWFALL POTENTIAL ACROSS FAR NORTHERN CHIPPEWA
COUNTY AS ADDED LOW LEVEL FORCING PUSHES INVERSION HEIGHTS BACK UP
TOWARD 700MB.  THIS COULD RESULT IN SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION...ESPECIALLY IF THIS BAND IS PERSISTENT OVER A SEVERAL
HOUR PERIOD.

FRIDAY...OUR SECONDARY COLD FRONT ARRIVES WITH THE COLDEST AIR OF
THE WINTER. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BRIEF BURST OF HEAVIER SNOW WITH
THIS BOUNDARY AS IT SAGS SOUTHWARD....WITH A NICE AXIS OF DEEPER
MOISTURE AND MID LEVEL DIV-Q.  IF THE BAND REMAINS TRANSITORY...THEN
GENERALLY AN INCH OR TWO SNOW FOR MOST AREAS LOOKS GOOD...WITH
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE ENHANCEMENT POSSIBLY BOOSTING TOTALS IN
SOME AREAS. THIS BURST OF SNOW COULD HAVE SOME TRAVEL IMPLICATIONS
/ALBEIT BRIEFLY/ AND IS SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.  BEHIND THE
FRONT...EXPECT NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT TO SET UP AS THE
COLDEST AIR OF THE EVENT ADVECTS ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES /850MB
TEMPERATURES BELOW -25C BY FRIDAY EVENING/.  TEMPERATURES LIKELY
FALL DURING THE AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT...AND WITH A BRISK
NORTH/NORTHWEST WIND DEVELOPING...ANTICIPATING WIND CHILLS TO FALL
BELOW ZERO DURING THE AFTERNOON.

SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER TO A 330-
340 DEGREE ORIENTATION.  SET UP SEEMS FAVORABLE FOR A DOMINANT TWO-
LAKE BAND /SIMILAR TO OUR CURRENT SET-UP OF LAKE EFFECT/ THAT
IMPACTS AN AREA ALONG/WEST OF THE US-131 CORRIDOR.  BUT BY THIS TIME
850MB TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW -25C WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON SNOWFLAKE
GROWTH PROCESSES RESULTING IN MUCH SMALLER FLAKE SIZES THAT WILL NOT
ACCUMULATE AS MUCH. SMALL FLAKES ARE ALSO MORE LIKELY TO BLOW AROUND
WITH GUSTY WINDS...WHICH CAN CREATE SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY ISSUES.
SEVERAL MORE INCHES OF ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE.  TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL BELOW ZERO IN MANY AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT /OUTSIDE OF COASTAL
AREAS/...WITH READINGS OF -20 DEGF POSSIBLE IN AREAS THAT SEE SOME
CLEARING.

SATURDAY...ONE WORD TO DESCRIBE TEMPERATURES...BRUTAL.  COLDEST AIR
OF THE WINTER IMPACTING MICHIGAN WITH ARCTIC HIGH GRADUALLY BUILDING
INTO THE REGION. SINGLE DIGIT HIGHS IN MOST AREAS...ALTHOUGH A FEW
LOCATIONS MAY NOT REACH ZERO.  WIND CHILL READINGS OF -15 TO -25
DEGREES DURING THE MORNING...WHICH COULD POTENTIALLY PUT US CLOSE TO
WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA.  SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING IN NORTHWEST
FLOW AREAS...WITH VERY SMALL FLAKE SIZE BUT POTENTIALLY POOR
VISIBILITY IN SOME LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

THE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN CONSENSUS OF SEVERAL AREAS OF UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND A COUPLE SURFACE LOWS PRODUCING CHANCES OF
SNOW THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
HAVING THE BEST CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD WARM ADVECTION SNOW ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE. LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY MAY ALSO SEE SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT ON THE STRONG SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING CLIPPER SYSTEM ALONG THE
LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINES...ESPECIALLY THE US-2 CORRIDOR OF EASTERN
UPPER. THE WINDS VEER TO NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE DEPARTING CLIPPER
SYSTEM BY TUESDAY MORNING WITH MUCH DRIER AIR AND A NARROW RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE. COLD TEMPERATURES WILL VERY LIKELY AT LEAST CREATE
LAKE CLOUDS...IF NOT SQUEEZE SOME LIGHT SNOW OUT AT TIMES TUESDAY.
MODELS THEN HINT AT ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHING THE GREAT
LAKES REGION MID-WEEK.

LOWS SUNDAY MORNING WILL DROP TO 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW ZERO WITH
WIND CHILLS BETWEEN 15 TO 20 BELOW ZERO. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL REACH
INTO THE TEENS ABOVE ZERO SUNDAY AND MODERATE TO THE UPPER 20S TO
MID 30S BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 640 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THE FLOW BACKING WESTERLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
TVC LOOKS TO BE THE MOST IMPACTED BY SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH MBL SEEING SOME ACTIVITY. APN WILL
CONTINUE TO BE IN AND OUT OF ACTIVITY WHILE PLN LOOKS TO REMAIN IN
BETWEEN BANDS...BUT WITH THE BACKING FLOW SOME ACTIVITY MAY IMPACT
THE AIRPORT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE PRIMARILY LOW
END VFR...BUT FALL TO MVFR AT TIMES IN SNOW SHOWERS. DEPENDING
UPON WHERE THE DOMINANT BAND SETS UP...TVC MAY FALL TO LIFR LATER
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SLACKEN JUST A BIT TONIGHT BUT BECOME A LITTLE
GUSTY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 332 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

NW WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH...AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE ADVANCES
FROM CENTRAL CANADA. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE SET TO EXPIRE
EARLY THU MORNING...AND THAT HOLD FOR A LITTLE WHILE. HOWEVER...W
TO NW WINDS WILL INCREASE THU NIGHT...AND ADDITIONAL ADVISORIES
COULD WELL BE NEEDED THEN.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ019>021-
     025>027-031>033.

LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LHZ345>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342-
     344>346.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JZ
SHORT TERM...KEYSOR
LONG TERM...TJL
AVIATION...SULLIVAN
MARINE...JZ


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