Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 262300
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
700 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

...A FEW SNOW SHOWERS AROUND TONIGHT...

ON THE LATEST SURFACE WEATHER MAP...A SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS DRAPED
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN WITH 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER
CENTRAL MANITOBA. MEANWHILE...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
APX RADAR SHOWED A SHRINKING AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHWEST
LOWER MICHIGAN. THE MAIN NEAR TERM FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVES AROUND
POPS AND WHETHER OR NOT THERE WILL BE ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION TONIGHT.

SO FAR MODELS HAVE BEEN WAY...WAY OVERDONE WITH THE AMOUNT AND
EXTENT OF MOISTURE WITH INCOMING COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHORT
WAVE. THIS COMES AS LITTLE SURPRISE AS OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS HAVE
BEEN INDICATING THAT MODELS WERE/ARE OUT OF TOUCH. THEREFORE...HAVE
BEEN AND WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER POPS AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED IF THERE WAS NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
ACCUMULATION...THOUGH ANY LEFTOVER ACTIVITY AFTER DARK COULD LEAD TO
A LITTLE ACCUMULATION. AS FAR AS LAKE EFFECT GOES...EXPECT A BIT OF
NORTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING WHICH SHOULD VEER INTO THE
NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. AGAIN...NOT MUCH ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY FROM PURE ADVECTION AS WINDS REMAIN A
BIT BRISK THROUGH THE NIGHT. THEREFORE RAISED LOWS JUST A TAD WHICH
WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO FAR NORTH TO THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER TEENS ALONG THE NORTHERN LOWER LAKESHORES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

...COLD BUT MOSTLY QUIET THROUGH SATURDAY/RAIN/SNOW AND WIND
SUNDAY...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SOME WET SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE
EASTERN UPPER SUNDAY...ALONG WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: HEMISPHERIC PATTERN SHOWS LONG WAVE
RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS NORTH AMERICA...AND A
FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN OVER THE PACIFIC BASIN WITH SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS NEAR 160W AND 160E.  SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS NORTHWEST ONTARIO BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT STRETCHES ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN/WISCONSIN/SOUTHERN MINNESOTA.  LOW/MID LEVEL
COLD ADVECTION INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...A CHILLY -20C 850MB
TEMPERATURES ON 12Z YPL SOUNDING INDICATIVE OF THE INCOMING AIR
MASS.

SHORT WAVE TROUGHING OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO SLIDES SOUTHEAST TONIGHT
AND ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY...WHILE STRONG RIDGING REMAINS
OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA.  SECONDARY WEAK WAVE CROSSES THE UPPER
LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT...AFTER WHICH HEIGHT FALLS FROM THE PACIFIC MOVE
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/BRITISH COLUMBIA...FLATTENING THE WESTERN
RIDGE AND SETTING UP A MORE PACIFIC-DOMINANT FLOW PATTERN INTO NEXT
WEEK.  SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILDS INTO MICHIGAN FOR SATURDAY...
FOLLOWED BY PACIFIC SHORT WAVE TROUGH REMNANTS FOR THE BACK END OF
THE WEEKEND.  AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA
WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST AND ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY...AND
LINGER SATURDAY BEFORE GIVING WAY TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY.  COLD FRONT ATTENDANT TO PACIFIC SHORT WAVE
REMNANTS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE SOMETIME LATER SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: NUISANCE LAKE CLOUD ISSUES FRIDAY...LOW
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY MORNING...PRECIPITATION TIMING/TYPE ISSUES
AND WINDS FOR SUNDAY.

FRIDAY...FORECAST STARTS FRIDAY WITH PASSAGE OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WHICH SHOULD MOSTLY BE THROUGH THE AREA BY
DAYBREAK.  ACCOMPANYING THIS WILL BE A THERMAL TROUGH WITH 850MB
TEMPERATURES DROPPING TOWARD -20C...SO CONCERNS WITH LAKE INDUCED
CLOUDS/SNOW SHOWERS WILL ABOUND FOR FRIDAY.  AT THIS POINT...LOOKS
LIKE AREAS ALONG/EAST OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR WILL SEE THE BULK OF THE
CLOUD COVER AND SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRY CHANCES WITH MORE OF AN OPEN
WATER FETCH THAN OVER NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN WHICH STILL HAS A GOOD
BIT OF ICE COVER FROM GRAND TRAVERSE BAY NORTHWARD.  SO COMBINATION
OF LAKE AND DIURNAL INFLUENCES EXPECTED TO BRING MORE CLOUDS ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN...ALONG WITH SOME SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES.  OUTSIDE OF THAT EXPECT TO SEE MORE SUN...AND
WILL BE A CHILLY AFTERNOON IN STORE WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO ONLY
REACH THE TEENS-MID 20S.  HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO
MICHIGAN FRIDAY NIGHT...SETTING THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER COLD FRIDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY AS WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE MOST AREAS.  STILL
SOME CONCERNS FOR CLOUDS NEAR LAKE HURON...BUT REMAINING AREAS
SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR AND ALLOW FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
POTENTIAL.  LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO SHOULD BE
COMMON.

SATURDAY...LOOKING PRETTY GOOD WITH SURFACE HIGH SLIDING INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY AND HEIGHT RISES/SHORT WAVE RIDGING ARRIVING FROM THE
NORTHWEST.  STILL COLD BY LATE MARCH STANDARDS...WITH FORECAST HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 20S-MID 30S A GOOD 10-15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.  STILL
QUIET SATURDAY NIGHT THOUGH WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP FROM THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AS SURFACE HIGH PULLS AWAY AND GRADIENT TIGHTENS
BETWEEN THE DEPARTING HIGH AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE MIDWEST.
LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE HIGHER THAN SATURDAY MORNING...AFTER A
QUICK DROP TEMPERATURES SHOULD LEVEL OFF AND/OR RISE OVERNIGHT AS
WINDS PICK UP (LOWS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S EXPECTED).

SUNDAY...SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO THE UPPER LAKES BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A
BAND OF PRECIPITATION ALONG/AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WITHIN
AN AXIS OF HALF-INCH PLUS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES.  THERE ARE SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES IN PRECIP ARRIVAL BETWEEN THE FASTER AMERICAN
GUIDANCE AND SLOWER NON-AMERICAN GUIDANCE (ECMWF/GGEM).  WILL SPLIT
THE DIFFERENCE FOR NOW AND HOLD PRECIP CHANCES OFF UNTIL SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.  PRECIP TYPE IS GOING TO BE AN ISSUE...SOME OF WHICH WILL
BE TIED TO TIMING (AN EARLIER ONSET MAY ALLOW FOR MORE SNOW THAN
RAIN).  FOR NOW WILL LEAN TOWARD MORE FROZEN PRECIP ACROSS EASTERN
UPPER...AND RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER AND ADJUST THE
DETAILS AS WE GET CLOSER.  LOOKING AT A PRETTY WINDY DAY AS WELL
SUNDAY...WITH SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OVER 30MPH EXPECTED (PERHAPS OVER
40 MPH NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN).

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE SIGNIFICANT...RAIN SNOW MIX
POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

AS THE SHORT LIVED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ON SUNDAY...OUR
ENTIRE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS A LITTLE MESSY AND A BIT UNSETTLED...AS
THE PATTERN SHIFTS TO THE TROUGHY SIDE OF ZONAL. THIS WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR PERIODIC CLIPPERS TO PUSH THROUGH EVERY COUPLE DAYS...VERY
MUCH TYPICAL OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN SPRING.

OUR FIRST SYSTEM AND THE MOST WELL DEFINED IS A CLIPPER THAT
TRAVERSES THE GREAT LAKES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
DECENT MOISTURE WITH THE H8 0C ISOTHERM IN THE VICINITY SHOULD
SPELL OUT A RAIN SNOW MIX...AT LEAST FOR THE ONSET. THEN THE
DIURNAL PROCESS SHOULD ENSURE ALL RAIN AS THE DAY WEARS ON. A
SECONDARY TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH ON TUESDAY...THOUGH WITH LESS
SUPPORT...WILL GO DRY FOR NOW BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A FEW
SHOWERS DEVELOP. INSTEAD...WILL FOCUS MORE ON YET ANOTHER CLIPPER
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY THAT WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF RAIN
TO THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES: COOLISH READINGS ON MONDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO MODERATING
TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. NEAR NORMAL IN MOST
CASES...AND EVEN A LITTLE ABOVE ON WEDNESDAY AS LOCALES IN THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA BREAK THE 50 DEGREE MARK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

SNOW SHOWERS AND PERIODIC MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT
ALL NRN LWR MICHIGAN TAF SITES THRU TONIGHT AS A WEAK MOISTURE-
STARVED WAVE SLIDES THRU THE REGION. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO MICHIGAN ON FRIDAY. SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER
ACROSS NE LWR MICHIGAN (APN) ON FRIDAY...OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER
AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR NW LWR MICHIGAN. N/NW WINDS
WILL REMAIN AT 10 TO 20 KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS EXPECTED.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SULLIVAN
SHORT TERM...JPB
LONG TERM...KAB
AVIATION...MLR


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