Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 021042
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
642 AM EDT THU OCT 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT THU OCT 2 2014

A STORM SYSTEM WILL ORGANIZE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY
INTO FRIDAY THEN HANG AROUND THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF WET AND PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WEATHER...WITH
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL LIKELY TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 642 AM EDT THU OCT 2 2014

MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. HAVE TWEAKED TIMING JUST A BIT
BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. ALSO GETTING A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WITH
THIS BATCH OF SHOWERS AND SPC MESOANALYSIS REVEALS A MODEST AXIS
OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN INTO LAKE
MICHIGAN. SO...HAVE ADDED ISOLATED THUNDER TO THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE CWA THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT THU OCT 2 2014

...RAINY END OF WEEK...

OVERVIEW: WELL WE FINALLY MANAGED TO BREAK OUT OF THE STRATUS AND
FOG OVER A GOOD PART OF THE CWA (PARTICULARLY NW LOWER) LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. EASTERN UPPER AND PARTS OF NE
LOWER MICHIGAN WERE NOT SO LUCKY. HOWEVER...SOME STRATUS/FOG HAS
BEEN ABLE TO REDEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF NRN LOWER MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT
WITHIN THE STRENGTHENING SE FLOW.

ON THE LARGE SCALE...BROAD UPPER TROUGHINESS ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS...DOWNSTREAM OF SHARP RIDGING IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC/WEST COAST. ONE SHORT WAVE/SFC LOW PRESSURE AND
SMALL UPPER JET CORE CURRENTLY RUNNING UP THROUGH ONTARIO WITH
TRAILING COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT ANOTHER STRONG SHORT WAVE IS CURRENTLY
ROTATING AROUND THE TROUGH AXIS THROUGH THE 4-CORNERS AREA WITH
ANOTHER ASSOCIATED STRONG UPPER JET STREAK STRETCHING UP INTO THE
MIDWEST/LOWER LAKES. FINALLY...ONE MORE STRONG PIECE OF ENERGY IS
DIVING OUT OF SOUTHWEST CANADA TOWARD THE NRN CONUS. THESE TWO WAVES
ARE STILL ON TRACK TO PHASE AND CARVE OUT A BIG UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE GREAT LAKES HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.

TODAY...LOTS OF STUFF ALREADY HAPPENING ACROSS THE MIDWEST
AND GREAT LAKES. SEVERAL THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES UNDERWAY FROM
OKLAHOMA INTO MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS...ALONG EASTERN SIDE OF
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE WHERE STRONGEST PORTION OF THE LOW LEVEL JET
AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS OCCURRING. NOTHING LIKE THAT UP THIS WAY.
BUT WE DO HAVE A MODEST THETA-E AXIS/CORRIDOR OF WARM ADVECTION
FORCING AND BAND OF SHOWERS EASING INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA
WELL OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. PRECIP COVERAGE HAD NOT BEEN THAT
IMPRESSIVE EARLIER IN THE NIGHT.  HOWEVER...AXIS OF RAINFALL HAS
BEEN STEADILY EXPANDING OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS WITH THE NOSE
OF THE UPPER JET CORE STARTING TO PUNCH UP INTO NRN MICHIGAN.
SO...WILL MAINTAIN INHERITED CATEGORICAL POPS FOR THE MORNING HOURS
ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PART OF THE CWA. JUST HOW FAR EAST
PRECIP GETS TODAY IS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN. STRONGER FORCING LIFTS
ON UP INTO CANADA BY AFTERNOON AND SHOWERS MAY LARGELY DWINDLE AWAY
BEFORE REACHING THE LAKE HURON SHORELINE. WILL KEEP POPS CHANCY
ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES AT THIS POINT AND SEE HOW IT GOES.

TONIGHT...FORECAST LOOKING STRAIGHTFORWARD FOR A CHANGE. FOUR
CORNERS SHORT WAVE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY SWING UP INTO THE MIDWEST
OVERNIGHT...WHILE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO GET CARVED OUT ACROSS
THE PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. ATTENDING SFC LOW DEEPENS
AND LIFTS UP INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY MORNING. STILL EXPECT A
NICE SLUG OF RAINFALL TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND NOSE UP
INTO NRN MICHIGAN DURING THE COURSE OF THE NIGHT. FLAT OUT 100 POPS
STILL WARRANTED WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF RAINFALL (HALF TO ONE INCH) A
GOOD BET ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA BY MORNING...QUARTER TO
HALF AN INCH FOR AREAS EAST. THUNDER...NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSED. BUT
GIVEN SUCH A STRONG DYNAMIC SYSTEM AND AXIS OF REDUCED STABILITY
ALOFT (NEGATIVE SHOWALTER INDICES) FORECAST TO SLIDE UP INTO THE
REGION...WILL CERTAINLY KEEP THUNDER IN THE FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT THU OCT 2 2014

...GET READY FOR LOTS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POSSIBILITIES: POSSIBLE GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO CARVE OUT A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...WHICH WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO
AT LEAST THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AS WELL. HECK THIS TROUGH MAY
END HANGING AROUND RIGHT INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHICH WOULD
NOT BE MUCH OF A SURPRISE GIVEN OUR PERSIST COOL PATTERN OVER THE
LAST YEAR. AS FAR AS THE DETAILS GO...A FAIRLY DEEP AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL RAMP UP OVER THE AREA OR JUST TO OUR NORTH FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT BRINGING RAINY AND WINDY WEATHER FOLLOWED BY VERY
CHILLY AND BRISK WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND WITH LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED
RAIN SHOWERS. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH SOME
SPOTS SEEING UPWARDS OF AN INCH OR MORE. LINGERING SHOWERS FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS ENERGY PIVOTS AROUND THE PARENT TROUGH
CENTERED OFF TO OUR NORTH. IT WILL THEN TURN COLD ENOUGH ALOFT
SATURDAY NIGHT (-2 TO -5 C AT 850 MB) THAT A FEW WET SNOW FLAKES MAY
MIX IN WITH THE RAIN ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN LOWER AND
IN EASTERN UPPER. SO DESPITE MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUING TO INSIST
FAIRLY DEEP MELTING DEPTHS OF NEAR 3000 FEET WILL KEEP IN CURRENT
FORECAST OF THE CHANCE FOR SOME WET SNOW FLAKES (AS CAN NOT RULE IT
OUT) AND MODELS INDICATE THAT A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED
ACROSS THE REGION AT 12Z SUNDAY. IT THEN LOOKS LIKE A VERY SLOW
MODERATING PROCESS IS LIKELY BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE
TROUGH FLATTENING OUT WITH TIME. OVERALL WILL CONTINUE TO BE
GENERALLY UNDER GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD (ESPECIALLY
DURING THE DAY). HIGHS MAY THE 60 MARK FRIDAY BEFORE DROPPING OFF IN
THE AFTERNOON BEHIND A SURFACE COLD FRONT. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE MOST
SPOTS WILL BE STUCK IN THE 40S TO THE LOWER 50S FOR BOTH SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY (WHICH IS A GOOD 15 DEGREES OR SO BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE
DATE). HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THOUGH COULD SEE
A FEW SPOTS NOT MAKING IT OUT OF THE UPPER 40S MONDAY. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY MAY FINALLY MODERATE THROUGH THE 50S WITH A SOME SPOTS
EVEN MAKING IT INTO THE LOWER 60S IF THEY ARE LUCKY. LOWS IN THE 30S
TO LOWER 40S THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 642 AM EDT THU OCT 2 2014

IFR CONDITIONS STILL IMPACTING APN THIS MORNING BUT EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE WITHIN A FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE...NARROW CORRIDOR OF
RAINFALL WILL SLIP INTO NRN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING BEFORE
FIZZLING OUT BY AFTERNOON. PLN/TVC/MBL WILL SEE SHOWERS...BUT RAIN
MAY NOT MAKE IT OVER THAT FAR EAST. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE
OCCURRED WITHIN THIS LINE. HAVE NOT ADDED THUNDER TO ANY TERMINAL
FORECAST JUST YET (DUE TO ISOLATED NATURE OF CONVECTION)...BUT
CHANCES OF A TSTM AT PLN/TVC/MBL ARE NOT ZERO THIS MORNING.

AFTER THE SHOWERS THIS MORNING...MVFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO RETURN
FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY. WIDESPREAD BATCH OF RAINFALL
OVERSPREADS THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH ALL TERMINAL SITES GOING
IFR AT THAT POINT. AGAIN...SOME THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT
BUT HAVE NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAF FORECASTS JUST YET.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 554 AM EDT THU OCT 2 2014

SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH TODAY ALTHOUGH
WINDS/WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS. LOW PRESSURE SWINGS UP THROUGH THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY ACCOMPANIED BY
SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KNOTS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR MANY (IF NOT ALL) NEARSHORE AREAS
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. LATER FRIDAY...COLD FRONT WILL SWING
THROUGH THE REGION TURNING WINDS INTO THE WEST. SOME GALE FORCE
GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER THE FRONT PASSES FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BUT
RIGHT NOW...IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL BE
COMMON OR PERSISTENT. THUS...HAVE NOT ISSUED ANY GALE WATCHES AT
THIS POINT.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ADAM
SYNOPSIS...AS
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...ADAM





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