Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 061143
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
643 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

FOR EARLY MORNING UPDATE HAVE ADDED SOME LOW SHOWER CHANCES A BIT
FURTHER EASTWARD IN LINE WITH LATEST HIGH-RES GUIDANCE AS SHOWERS
OVER NORTHEASTERN MONTANA ARE TRYING TO WORK THEIR WAY EAST.
OTHERWISE...REMAINDER OF FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

THE MAIN IMPACTS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
TODAY...BRINGING GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND POSSIBLE SMOKY/HAZY
CONDITIONS RESULTING FROM FIRES FROM ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN FIRES.

CURRENTLY...AT UPPER LEVELS...TWO LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL LOWS
WERE CUT OFF OR NEARLY CUTOFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW OF THE WESTERLIES -
ONE OVER CALIFORNIA AND THE OTHER OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US. A
BROAD FLATTENED RIDGE BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS WAS OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. A SHORTWAVE IN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS MOVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA.

THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT THAT
EXTENDED FROM A LOW OVER SOUTHWESTERN ONTARIO...SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS
SOUTHERN MANITOBA...NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...AND SOUTHEASTERN
MONTANA. DRY AND COOLER HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WAS CENTERED
OVER ALBERTA. SWIFT CURRENT HAD EARLIER REPORTED VISIBILITY DOWN TO
2-3 MILES...BUT WAS BACK UP TO 9 MILES. GLASGOW AND WOLF POINT IN
MONTANA WERE DOWN TO 6 AND 5 MILES IN SMOKE...WITH FORECASTERS IN
GLASGOW FIELDING SOME PHONE CALLS REGARDING RESIDENTS SMELLING
SMOKE.

ALSO CHECKED THE NATIONAL AIR QUALITY FORECAST REGARDING SURFACE
SMOKE...AND THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE SMOKE TODAY IN NORTH
DAKOTA. THUS WILL ADD THE MENTION OF PATCHY SMOKE TO WESTERN AND
PARTS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY.

GUSTY NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ALLOW GOOD MIXING FROM THE
SURFACE TO AROUND H800...AND TAP INTO A VERY DRY LAYER ALOFT. THIS
WILL ALLOW A QUICK DROP IN RELATIVE HUMIDITY DESPITE COOLER
CONDITIONS (WE ARE EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 70 ACROSS THE
NORTH...AND UPPER 70S IN FAR SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA). NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...BUT CURRENT THINKING
IS THAT WIDESPREAD RED FLAG CONDITIONS WOULD NOT BE REACHED FOR 3
HOURS OR MORE. LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITY ACROSS THE NORTH MAY NOT
CORRESPOND WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OF THE DAY. FOR NOW WILL HOLD
OFF WITH ANY FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES SINCE CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH AT THIS POINT.

SOME MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ISOLATED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
COLD FRONT AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MOVING EAST ACROSS
MONTANA. HAVE KEPT A VERY SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR PARTS OF
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA FOR A SHORT TIME TODAY.

TONIGHT THE COOL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES PUSHING INTO THE
STATE...WITH THE HIGH CENTER DRIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
STATE SATURDAY BRINGING A MUCH QUIETER DAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AND LIGHT WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

UPPER LOW CURRENTLY PUSHING ONSHORE OVER THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST WORKS ITS WAY OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THIS WEEKEND BEFORE
LIFTING TOWARDS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS. QUIET AND PLEASANT
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW
WITH HIGHS RUNNING AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.

AFOREMENTIONED LOW SETS UP NEAR THE SOUTH DAKOTA/NEBRASKA BORDER ON
MONDAY BRINGING THE INITIAL CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
A THUNDERSTORM. SECONDARY TROUGH MOVES OVER THE ROCKIES MONDAY
NIGHT BEFORE CLOSING OFF AND ABSORBING THE INITIAL LOW. SYSTEM
THEN DEEPENS AS MEANDERS OVER NORTH DAKOTA BRINGING INCREASED RAIN
SHOWER CHANCES FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS HINT THAT THE
LOW MAY START ITS GRADUAL DEPARTURE ON THURSDAY THOUGH RAIN
CHANCES WILL REMAIN WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH TODAY...BUT THERE IS A LOW
PROBABILITY OF SUB-VFR SMOKE AFFECTING PARTS OF THE AREA. THE MAIN
AVIATION WEATHER ISSUE WILL BE A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THAT WAS
MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA AT 6 AM CDT...WHICH HAS SHIFTED
WINDS TO THE NORTH. EXPECT WINDS TO BEGIN INCREASING A FEW HOURS
AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KT
EXPECTED TO OCCUR FRIDAY LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON ACROSS ALL OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...JV


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