Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 282133
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
333 PM CST SUN DEC 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CST SUN DEC 28 2014

LIGHT SNOW NOW PRETTY MUCH CONFINED TO THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL AND BY THIS EVENING MAINLY THE SOUTHWEST. SATELLITE LOOPS
SHOW THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION OF A MID LEVEL FEATURE IS MOVING
THROUGH SOUTHEAST MONTANA. FOLLOWING THIS TRACK MUCH OF THE SNOW
WILL BE TRENDING DOWN AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. SKIES WILL
PROGRESSIVELY CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES ACROSS CENTRAL MANITOBA AND SASKATCHEWAN WERE 20 TO
25 BELOW ZERO SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECT THIS COLD AIR TO HEAD SOUTH
WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES MONDAY MORNING CLOSE TO 20 BELOW NORTH
CENTRAL...10 BELOW CENTRAL...AND CLOSE TO 5 BELOW SOUTHWEST BY
MONDAY MORNING. WITH WIND SPEEDS AROUND 10 MPH THE WIND CHILLS
WILL FALL WELL INTO THE ADVISORY CATEGORY NORTH CENTRAL INTO THE
CENTRAL THIS EVENING. WITH WIND CHILLS WILL LOWERING TO THE
ADVISORY CATEGORY OVER ALL BUT THE SOUTHWEST WHERE CLOUDS SHOULD
KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING BELOW 5 BELOW. ON MONDAY...WIND
CHILLS WILL BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE 20 BELOW DURING THE DAY BUT RETURN
TO BELOW 20 BELOW BY THE EVENING. SNOW TOTALS STILL ONLY 1 TO 2
INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CST SUN DEC 28 2014

ARCTIC AIR REMAINING OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...A
CHANCE FOR SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH MORE
ARCTIC AIR FOR NEXT WEEKEND...ARE THE HIGHLIGHTS IN THE LONG TERM.

REGARDING THE ARCTIC AIR AND WIND CHILL ADVISORY:
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY OFFICIALLY ENDS AROUND
NOON ON TUESDAY - WITH WIND CHILLS REMAINING BELOW THE -25F CRITERIA
THROUGH NOON TUESDAY. TUESDAY AFTERNOON WIND CHILLS ARE FORECAST TO
RISE INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO IN THE SOUTHWEST...BUT THEN THE
ENTIRE WEST AND CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE RETURNS TO AT OR BELOW THE
CRITERIA TUESDAY NIGHT. RECOVERY ABOVE WIND CHILL CRITERIA BEGINS
WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND ALL AREAS ARE ABOVE CRITERIA BEFORE NOON
WEDNESDAY.

WILL KEEP THE CURRENT END TIME OF THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY. LATER
SHIFTS WILL DECIDE WHERE/WHEN TO EXTEND THE ADVISORY. IN
SUMMARY...COLD ARCTIC AIR TO PLAGUE THE REGION UNTIL DAYTIME
WEDNESDAY.

WARM AIR ADVECTION ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY (NEW YEARS EVE AND NEW
YEARS DAY) AS DOME OF ARCTIC AIR MOVES SOUTH OF THE STATE...AND
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DEVELOP WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER SYSTEM FROM
THE NORTH. THIS WARMING WILL OCCUR IN BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED
DEPARTING ARCTIC DOME AND THE NEXT ARCTIC COLD FRONT. DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
DIVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE AS A WEAK SURFACE FRONT DEVELOPS
BETWEEN THE ARCTIC AIR FROM THE NORTH AND MORE PACIFIC AIR FROM THE
SOUTH. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW TO NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS
MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY (NEW YEARS DAY).
LOOKING AT LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT FROM 5 TO 10 ABOVE...AND HIGHS
THURSDAY IN THE TEENS AND 20S.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD SEE CONTINUED CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW
AS ANOTHER ARCTIC COLD FRONT ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH. THE MODELS ARE
NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR PLACEMENT OF LIGHT SNOW...BUT WILL KEEP
THE CHANCE MENTIONED AS WE LOOK FOR THE NEXT FEW MODEL RUNS FOR
BETTER CONSISTENCY. WE WILL LIKELY NOT SEE MUCH OF A TEMPERATURE
RECOVERY FROM THURSDAY NIGHT`S LOWS OF 5 BELOW TO 15 ABOVE ZERO...TO
FRIDAY`S HIGHS OF 5 TO 20 ABOVE.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY WILL SEE THE REGION UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
AMERICA. MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS LOWS OF ZERO TO 15 BELOW FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH A COOLING TREND TO 15 TO 25 BELOW ZERO NEXT SUNDAY NIGHT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES NEXT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE
ABOVE ZERO FOR MUCH OF OUR AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST SUN DEC 28 2014

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS MONTANA WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND SPREAD
SNOW ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA, ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND
MONDAY. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS AT KDIK WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE LOW VFR TO VFR FROM ISN-KMOT-KBIS-KJMS AS THE HIGH
BRINGS CLEARING SKIES BUT VERY COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT TO
NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TUESDAY FOR NDZ017>020-031>037-042-045>048-
050-051.

WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST TUESDAY
FOR NDZ001>005-009>013-021>023-025.

WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 5 PM MONDAY TO 11 AM MST TUESDAY FOR
NDZ040-041-043-044.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...WAA







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