Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KBIS 020151
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
751 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 741 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

FORECAST PROBLEM TONIGHT IS TEMPERATURE. HOW LOW WILL THE EAST
GO. WHERE WILL THE WEST BOTTOM OUT BEFORE THE COMBINATION OF WIND
SHIFT...FROM THE SOUTH...INCREASE IN SPEED AND INCREASE IN CLOUDS
WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION...BEFORE THEY LEVEL OFF AND THEN START
RISING. AS OF THIS WRITING BISMARCK IS AT ITS FORECAST LOW FOR THE
NIGHT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT IS
LOW...PUN INTENDED. NOTE THAT OVER THE PAST HOUR HETTINGER HAS
LOST 5 DEGREES IN TEMPERATURE AND BAKER MONTANA HAS LOST 8.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS WILL DRIFT
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. EARLY EVENING TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL FAIRLY
QUICKLY ACROSS THE NEW SNOW COVERED AREAS BEFORE THE WARM
ADVECTION AND CLOUDS MOVE IN LATE TONIGHT. SO DROPPED THE MIN
TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 TO 7 DEGREES OVER PREVIOUS FORECASTS. SURFACE
PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES WILL BEGIN THIS
EVENING AND THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS MONDAY.
THIS LOW WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW MONDAY.
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF AROUND AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST BY MONDAY EVENING.

WIND CHILLS SUNDAY NIGHT NIGHT WILL FALL TO CLOSE TO 25 BELOW FOR
A FEW HOURS OVERNIGHT BUT NOT WIDESPREAD IN AREA OR TIME SO WILL
NOT ISSUE WIND CHILL ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES WITH PREVIOUS TRENDS OF ADVERTISING
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE PERSISTENT HUDSON BAY
LOW AND AFFECTING WESTERN AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH SNOW. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF
PERIOD OF ARCTIC AIR LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DRY WEATHER IS
FORECAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
IMPACT THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH DRYING CONDITIONS BY
SUNDAY. COMPLICATED SYSTEM THIS FAR OUT AS A STRONG/DISTINCT
BAROCLINIC ZONE IS FORECAST TO BISECT SOUTHWESTERN AND NORTHERN
NORTH DAKOTA. WOULD EXPECT TO SEE A WINTRY MIX ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH ALL SNOW FARTHER NORTH.
DESPITE BEING A WEEK OUT...MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH
THIS SCENARIO.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...CLIPPER SYSTEM LIKE THE LAST COUPLE
IS ON TRACK TO PRODUCE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOWFALL FOR ALL BUT THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY...WHERE SNOW TOTALS
WILL BE WELL UNDER ON INCH OR NOTHING AT ALL. THE SNOW WILL LIGHTEN
UP LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY DECREASING CLOUDS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATER TUESDAY
NIGHT AS A 1036MB SURFACE HIGH WORKS ACROSS THE AREA.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE PREVIOUS SHORTWAVE DEPARTS AND ARCTIC
AIR REMAINS IN PLACE WITH HIGHS AROUND ZERO IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS
TO MID TEENS SOUTHWEST. EXPECTING A DRY PERIOD WEDNESDAY THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. RISING HEIGHTS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION INITIATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PUSHING THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WHICH HAD BEEN
SITUATED IN EASTERN MONTANA AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...NOW TO BE
POSITIONED ACROSS NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS
SETS THE STAGE FOR THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW WHICH WILL IMPACT WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...IT APPEARS AN ALL SNOW
SCENARIO IN THE NORTH WITH A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO WINTRY MIX CLOSER
TO THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. THIS WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED CLOSELY DURING THE WEEK. WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
SHIFTING FARTHER NORTH AND EAST...THERE WILL BE A SHARP TRANSITION
IN TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE...EXPECT FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS OF AROUND 10 ABOVE...WHEREAS THE SOUTHWEST IS FORECAST TO
EXPERIENCE HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 40S.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 741 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY EVENING WILL KEEP
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. ON MONDAY...LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION OVERRUNNING LIGHT SNOW WEST INTO
THE CENTRAL. THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITES IN -SN WILL BE IN THE SOUTHWEST...AT KDIK...BOWMAN AND
HETTINGER BY 02/1700Z.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JP MARTIN
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...JP MARTIN



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.