Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID

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FXUS65 KBOI 261543

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
943 AM MDT Wed Oct 26 2016

.DISCUSSION...Warm front is now north of the CWA this morning with
conditions drying out for the day. A few sprinkles this morning
are visible on radar, while POPs remain less than 5%. It`s
unlikely any of these showers will produce 0.01 and warrant a
mentionable POP, so the forecast remains unchanged. High
temperatures today still look to be 10-15 degrees above normal in
the warm sector of this next trough moving in tomorrow.


.AVIATION...FR. SCT-BKN mid and high level clouds. Isolated
rain showers, mainly north of a KBNO-KONO-KSNT line, through 18Z.
Surface winds: East to South 10-20 knots with gusts to 30 knots by
18Z. Winds aloft at 10k feet MSL: Southwesterly 20-35 knots.


SHORT TERM...Distinct warm front with light rain was near the
northern CWA boundary and moving north.  By noon our entire CWA
will be in the warm sector south of the warm front and east of
the cold front which will still be along the coast.  High temps
today will be in the 60s in the mountains and higher valleys,
and upper 60s to mid 70s in the lower southern valleys.  Skies
will be partly cloudy with little or no rain.  The cold front
will move inland tonight and Thursday, reaching Baker and Harney
Counties around noon PDT Thursday, and a Salmon-Boise-Rome/OR
line late Thursday afternoon.  Front will bring rain as it moves
east, with extra moisture supplied by an upper low off California.
Winds will be a steady southeast 10 to 15 mph through Thursday
morning, then west or northwest 10 mph Thursday afternoon behind
the cold front.

LONG TERM...Thursday night through Wednesday...An upper-level
trough from off the California coast will cross our CWA on Friday
bringing widespread light to moderate precipitation, in the form of
snow above 8000 feet. Scattered showers will continue through the
weekend ahead of a stronger and colder upper-level trough from the
Gulf of Alaska. Models move this system across our area Sunday and
Sunday night, with snow levels lowering to between 6000 and 7000
feet. For Monday through Wednesday, models differ on timing and
strength of Pacific weather systems affecting our area, but they do
show at least a slight chance of showers through the period.
Temperatures will average 5 to 10 degrees above normal.





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