Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID

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000
FXUS65 KBOI 111008
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
308 AM MST THU FEB 11 2016

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
TODAY WILL SHIFT EAST ON FRIDAY. THE STRONG RIDGE WILL ALLOW THE
INVERSION TO CONTINUE TODAY...WITH LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG THIS
MORNING. SO FAR...DENSE FOG HAS BEEN ISOLATED AND
TEMPORARY...PROBABLY DUE TO THE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
STREAMING THROUGH THE AREA. THE LIMITED MOISTURE WILL BRING ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH /AREAS FROM BAKER CITY TO
MCCALL/ THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. INVERSION WILL START TO
WEAKEN ON FRIDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MOVES INTO THE AREA AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. HOWEVER...KEPT PATCHY VALLEY
FOG IN THE FORECAST DUE TO LOW MIXING HEIGHTS AND LIGHT
WINDS...EXCEPT FROM MOUNTAIN HOME TO JEROME WHERE EAST WINDS OF
5-15 MPH SHOULD PREVENT FOG FROM DEVELOPING. TEMPERATURES WILL
TREND SLIGHTLY WARMER IN THE VALLEYS AND COOLER IN THE MOUNTAINS
DUE TO THE WEAKENING INVERSION.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A MORE ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A SERIES
OF THROUGH MOIST TROUGHS MOVES THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE
FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY AND
BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO
MOUNTAINS. SNOW LEVELS REMAIN HIGH SATURDAY BETWEEN 5000-7000 FEET
MSL. MOIST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE FOLLOWS ON
SUNDAY FOR A BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. SNOW LEVELS AGAIN WILL REMAIN ABOVE 5000 FEET. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO REBUILD NORTHWARD ON MONDAY PUSHING THE PLUME
OF MOISTURE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE RIDGE WILL BE SHORT-
LIVED AS ANOTHER STRONGER TROUGH REACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COAST WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE TROUGH ON MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE QUITE WARM APPROACHING THE UPPER 50S TO
LOW 60S IN THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE FROM
5000 FEET TO 3500 FEET THURSDAY EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CONDITIONS IN LOW STRATUS AND FOG IN THE LOWER
VALLEYS THIS MORNING. BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH CIRRUS THIS MORNING
WILL LIKELY LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT...THOUGH TO EXPECT KBNO AND KMYL
TO SEE FOG THIS MORNING. LESS CONFIDENCE FOG/STRATUS AT KBOI THIS
MORNING. EXPECT ANY FOG/STRATUS THAT DOES DEVELOP TO DISSIPATE
THIS AFTERNOON EXCEPT IN THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY. SURFACE
WINDS...VARIABLE MAINLY LESS THAN 10 KTS. WINDS ALOFT THROUGH 10K
FT MSL...SOUTHWEST TO WEST 10-20 KTS.

&&

.AIR STAGNATION...THE INVERSION WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
THE TOP OF THE INVERSION LAYER AT AROUND 1500-2000 FEET AGL. THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
REMOVE THE INVERSION AND PROVIDE BETTER MIXING.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM....JS
AVIATION.....JS
AIR STAGNATION...BW


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