Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID

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FXUS65 KBOI 250901

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
301 AM MDT Sun Jun 25 2017

.SHORT TERM...Today through Monday...High pressure remains in firm
control across the west this morning. Satellite imagery indicates
some mid/upper level moisture is migrating northward through the
ridge. This moisture set of some thunderstorm activity over the
Sierra Nevada range in California yesterday afternoon. At the
surface high pressure is parked over the Pacific Northwest, with a
pronounced thermal trough draped over the west coast from southern
California to southwest Oregon. The ridge of high pressure is
expected to slide eastward today and tomorrow in response to an
approaching trough. This eastward progression will cause the
surface thermal trough to move into the area as well. The
combination of the thermal trough and the ridge of high pressure
will lead to much above normal temperatures. Widespread areas of
mid to upper 90s are anticipated both today and Monday.

The approaching trough is expected to interact with the mid/upper
level moisture migrating under the ridge leading to thunderstorm
activity Monday and Monday evening. Current projections indicate
the best chance of convection will be over the higher terrain of
eastern Oregon and central Idaho. There are strong indications
that the lower levels of the atmosphere will remain on the dry
side as the trough swings through. This means that any storms
that develop will likely produce gusty winds at the surface. These
gusty winds could kick up dust impacting visibility and air
quality late Monday.

.LONG TERM...Monday night through Saturday...Upper level trough
moves across Central Oregon and into Northern Idaho Monday night.
Trough will be bring a chance of thunderstorms with gusty surface
winds throughout SE Oregon and the West Central Mountains. Lingering
moisture Tuesday will be enough for afternoon/evening thunderstorms
in the Central Idaho Mountains. Northwest flow through Wednesday
will bring temperatures just below normal. Another upper level ridge
begins to build over the Pacific Northwest Thursday with
temperatures climbing above normal on Friday ahead of another
trough. The upper level trough moves through the region on Saturday
cooling temperatures back below normal and bring a slight change of
thunderstorms the West Central Mountains.


.AVIATION...VFR with clear skies. Surface winds east-southeast 10
kts or less. Winds aloft to 10k feet MSL, variable 10 kts or less.
Chance of thunderstorms on Monday afternoon and evening across
Southeast Oregon.





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