Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID

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FXUS65 KBOI 230935
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
335 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...YESTERDAY THE MAIN MOISTURE AND CONVECTIVE WX WERE
IN NRN ZONES IN IDAHO AND THE WALLOWA MOUNTAINS IN OREGON.  THERE
WAS LOCAL FLOODING FRIDAY EVENING NEAR MCCALL AND DONNELLY.  TODAY
THE ACTION WILL BE ALMOST ENTIRELY ON THE IDAHO SIDE.  GFS STABILITY
CHARTS HAVE VERIFIED BETTER THAN NAM RECENTLY...AND GFS SHOWS
GREATEST INSTABILITY TODAY IN THE BOISE MOUNTAINS AND WEST CENTRAL
IDAHO MOUNTAINS.  BUT GREATEST QPF WILL BE ALONG THE IDAHO/NV BORDER
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS UPPER LOW PASSES BY IN UTAH.  YESTERDAY/S
MODELS SHOWED THAT TOO.  THEREFORE WE EXPECT QUITE A BIT OF RAIN
WITH ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY IN TWIN FALLS COUNTY AND ERN
OWYHEE COUNTY...WHEREAS IN THE IDAHO MOUNTAINS NORTH OF THE SNAKE
BASIN WE EXPECT MORE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCAL HEAVY RAIN.  WE WILL
AGAIN LET THE DAY CREW DECIDE IF A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS NEEDED FOR
THOSE NRN MOUNTAINS TODAY.  MEANWHILE...OREGON ZONES WILL HAVE
RELATIVELY LESS WX TODAY.  DRIER AIR WILL COME IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY BUT ERN-MOST IDAHO ZONES WILL STILL HAVE A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  LITTLE CHANGE IN MAX TEMPS
TODAY...THEN ABOUT 3 DEGS WARMER SUNDAY.  MILD AND MOIST TONIGHT WITH
PATCHY FOG AGAIN IN THE NRN VALLEYS.  MODERATE WEST TO EAST SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP WEST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH IN THE SNAKE
BASIN AND ALSO NEAR BAKER COUNTY/OR TODAY.  LESS WINDY SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. RESIDUAL MOISTURE
OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP INSTABILITY HIGH ENOUGH FOR AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL
THROUGH FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO THE 80S IN THE
LOWER VALLEYS AS WARMER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTH. THE RIDGE IS
SHORT-LIVED AS MODELS HAVE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE GULF OF
ALASKA TRANSITIONING INTO THE REGION BY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR. SCT-BKN MID LEVEL CLOUD DECKS WITH SCT
SHOWERS AND PATCHY IFR FOG IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AT KBKE AND KMYL THRU
14Z/SAT. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING IN COVERAGE
AFTER 18Z/SAT. SURFACE WINDS LIGHT BECOMING GENERALLY NORTHWESTERLY
10-20KT THIS AFTERNOON...GUSTS TO 30KT NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS
ALOFT AT 10K FT MSL...NE 15-25KT.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....KA
AVIATION.....KA


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