Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID

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000
FXUS65 KBOI 280256
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
856 PM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS TONIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES.
THE 18Z GFS AND 00Z NAM SOLUTIONS BOTH SHOWING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL ID MTNS AND HIGHER
TERRAIN ALONG THE NORTHERN NV BORDER THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE PASSAGE OF A FAST MOVING...LOW-
AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH. CAPE AND LI INDICES ARE MARGINAL AND
BEST MID-LEVEL DYNAMICS STAY ACROSS NORTHERN ID SO SHOWER/STORM
CHANCES ARE SLIGHT FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.
NO UPDATES FOR TONIGHT/S FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WITH CLEAR SKIES. LIGHT SURFACE WINDS. WINDS ALOFT
AT 10K FT MSL...WESTERLY 15-25KT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE LOW 90S THURSDAY IN THE
VALLEY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS WASHINGTON THURSDAY
NIGHT AND INTO NORTHERN IDAHO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING BRINGING MOSTLY
MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN ZONES...MAINLY NORTH OF A BAKER CITY-MCCALL LINE. FOR
FRIDAY...HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE COLD
FRONT REACHES BURNS/BAKER CITY AROUND 00Z SATURDAY AND BOISE
AROUND 06Z SATURDAY /MIDNIGHT FRIDAY/. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE
INITIALLY DRY UNTIL IT REACHES SW IDAHO AND INTERACTS WITH A
DEEPER PLUME OF MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC STORMS IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC MOVING ACROSS NEVADA. THIS SHOULD INITIATE THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE NEVADA BORDER FRIDAY EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH SOUTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO FRIDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY COOLER TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH LABOR DAY. VALLEY
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80F WITH MOUNTAIN HIGHS GENERALLY
IN THE 60S. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ALONG THE FRONT IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHWEST IDAHO FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY. A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING MOSTLY DRY AND LOCALLY
BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN A SLOW CLIMB BACK
TOWARD NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A NEW TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER
WESTERN CANADA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO
AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...DG
AVIATION.....KA
PREV SHORT TERM...JDS
PREV LONG TERM....BW/AB



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