Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 250355

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
955 PM MDT Mon Oct 24 2016

Issued at 945 PM MDT Mon Oct 24 2016

Cloud shield on leading edge of the upper air system advancing
acrs Utah this evening now nearing the Front Range according IR
satellite imagery. Precip associated with this cloud cover still
well back in Utah and mainly in the from of rain. Have adjusted
sky coverage to speed up its arrival east of the mtns in the next
few hours. Latest HRRR and RAP indicate spotty light QPF over and
east of the Front Range between 09-15z/Tue. Amts appear very
light...esply on the plains as the boundary layer should remain
quite dry with downslope flow off the foothills. Should see
gradual clearing through the day as is already indicated in the
fcst grids. Otherwise few changes necessary to the ongoing
forecast for tonight.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 352 PM MDT Mon Oct 24 2016

Forecast on track with the band of showers now across Utah slated
to move across western Colorado tonight with whatever is left of
it coming over eastern Colorado in the morning. Pretty good chance
of mountain locations getting a little rain and snow as the band
should stay together until it hits the east slopes. Not much cold
advection so the snow level should be around 10 thousand feet, and
at pass elevations roads should be wet for the most part.
Expecting mainly virga east of the Front Range, but enough
organization to keep some low PoPs in the morning. For the
afternoon a shallow layer of moisture with just slight instability
over the mountains. I dropped the PoPs a bit east of the mountains
for the afternoon as the showers trying to move over the mountains
should be weaker. Forecast temps look good with just a little
cooling, as much due to cloud cover as anything else.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 352 PM MDT Mon Oct 24 2016

Light snow and rain showers in the mountains will linger into the
early hours on Wednesday. Snow levels could get down to 10,000 ft
overnight but amounts will be very light. As the upper trough
moves out some increased winds over the NE corner will be possible
but no showers.

Behind this feature strong ridging will move in bringing continued
dry and above average temperatures to the region. Highs through
Friday will be in the 70s on the plains with Thursday being the
warmest with a possible high temp close to 80. Lows will be in the
40s. Both the GFS and EC have the trough axis over the NW with a
trailing branch over Western portions of the state. This could
bring a slight chance of precipitation to the mountains but with
minimal QG and CAPE confidence is low on little if any
accumulation with no precip expected on the plains. This feature
will make its way out by late Saturday with another ridge settling
in by Sunday.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 945 PM MDT Mon Oct 24 2016

VFR conditions at Denver area terminals next 24 hours.
Although should see cloud ceilings lowering after midnight to
possibly as low as 8000 ft agl with a weak upper air disturbance
passing over the area. Could see a few light rain showers in and
around the Denver metro area towards morning...but with no
restrictions to visibility as the air near the ground should
remain quite dry. Southerly winds of 7-14 kts across the metro
area at this time should gradually swift clockwise to a west-
southwest component after 09z with isolated showers moving down of
the foothills. After the passage of these showers around 14-15z...
should see winds briefly return to a southerly direction at
6-12kts...before gradually turning to a west-northwest direction
around midday behind the passing weather disturbance. Should also
see a steady reduction in cloud cover through the afternoon.




SHORT TERM...Gimmestad
AVIATION...Baker is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.