Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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FXUS65 KBYZ 251545
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
945 AM MDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.UPDATE...

COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR HAS MOVED INTO THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND
YESTERDAY`S STRONG COLD FRONT. SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES ABOUT
10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY CAN BE EXPECTED. ONLY
CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST WERE TO INCREASE WINDS INTO THE 15
TO 25 MPH RANGE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN SECTIONS. AS A RESULT...HAVE
ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING FOR MAINLY
NORTHERN ROSEBUD AND ALL OF CUSTER COUNTY (FIRE ZONES 130 AND
132). HOOLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SAT...

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM. DRY CONDITIONS WITH
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL. FLOW ALOFT WILL BE ZONAL
BEHIND YESTERDAYS RIDGE BREAKER/FRONTAL PASSAGE...BEFORE TURNING A
BIT NORTHWESTERLY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR WEST ON SATURDAY.

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM REVOLVES AROUND FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. VERY DRY AIR HAS MOVED OVER THE REGION BEHIND LAST
EVENINGS SYSTEM. SO WE SHOULD SEE MINIMUM HUMIDITY BELOW 20
PERCENT OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY AFTERNOON DESPITE BEING
5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE
MARGINAL FOR RED FLAG CRITERIA...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF
EXCEEDANCE FROM HARLOWTON TO MILES CITY. FIRE DANGERS ARE LAST
REPORTED TO BE MODERATE TO HIGH IN THESE AREAS. THEREFORE...DUE TO
MANY ASPECTS BEING BORDERLINE...WILL NOT ISSUE ANY FIRE WEATHER
HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME. MY ONE CONCERN IS THAT YESTERDAYS HOT
WINDY CONDITIONS MAY HAVE BUMPED SOME AREAS PREVIOUSLY REPORTED
AS MODERATE TO HIGH UP A NOTCH. WILL ALLOW DAYS SHIFT TO GATHER
MORE INFO AS DEEMED NECESSARY. BT

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT...WITH CONSISTENT MESSAGE OF WARM
AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER...UNDER A 500-MB RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
ANCHORED OF OVER THE AREA. SUNDAY TEMPS WILL BE THE COOLEST OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH MID 80S ON TAP. TEMPS RETURNING TO
AROUND 90 FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

THE GREATEST QUESTION MARK THROUGH THE PERIOD REMAINS CENTERED
AROUND MONSOONAL MOISTURE IMPACTS. MODELS ARE POINTING TO SOME
DEGREE OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE INFLUX UNDERCUTTING THE RIDGE
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD. BEST POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE
CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN AT THIS TIME...WITH SLOWLY
INCREASING POTENTIAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
SHOULD COUNTER ANY LIFT OVER THE PLAINS AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE
SLOW TO MODIFY...SO ANY DEVELOPMENT OR ENCROACHMENT BY MOUNTAIN
STORM SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIMITED THROUGH THE BULK OF THE PERIOD. HAVE
HOWEVER SPREAD SOME SLIGHT POPS ACROSS THE REGION TO END THE
WORKWEEK AS MOISTURE AVAILABILITY CONTINUES TO INCREASE. AAG

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR WILL PREVAIL OVER THE AREA TODAY. GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST
SURFACE WINDS WILL RETURN THIS AFTERNOON. AAG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 087 058/084 056/084 059/089 061/089 061/090 060/091
    0/U 00/U    00/U    01/U    12/T    21/U    11/U
LVM 084 049/084 047/086 051/089 053/089 053/089 054/091
    0/N 00/U    00/U    01/B    12/T    22/T    22/T
HDN 089 056/086 054/085 057/091 058/091 059/091 059/093
    0/U 00/U    00/U    01/U    12/T    21/U    11/U
MLS 087 058/083 056/083 059/088 060/089 061/090 061/091
    0/N 00/N    00/U    00/U    11/U    11/U    11/U
4BQ 087 058/084 054/082 056/088 059/088 059/089 059/090
    0/U 00/U    00/U    00/U    11/B    11/U    11/U
BHK 084 054/081 051/079 052/084 055/085 056/086 056/087
    0/N 00/N    00/U    00/U    11/U    11/U    11/U
SHR 088 053/084 050/083 053/088 055/087 054/087 055/088
    0/U 00/U    00/U    01/U    22/T    22/T    21/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
      ZONES 30>32.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



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