Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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FXUS65 KBYZ 062136
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
236 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SUN AND MON...

A WINDY WEEKEND CONTINUES TO BE THE FOCUS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST. THE STRONG PACIFIC FRONT HAS NOW BLASTED ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. GAP AND PRE-FRONTAL WINDS FOR LIVINGSTON HIT
79 MPH THIS MORNING WITH POST-FRONTAL WINDS GUSTING AROUND 60 MPH.
WINDS HAVE SINCE LOWERED INTO THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE. AS A
RESULT...WE WILL CANCEL THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE LIVINGSTON AREA
WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. AREA WIND SENSORS HAVE BEEN REPORTING
WIND GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH FOR MOST AREAS. HOWEVER...A FEW LOCATIONS
SUCH AS BIG TIMBER...JUDITH GAP...ROUNDUP AND THE BULL MOUNTAIN
DOT SITE HAVE HAD GUSTS IN THE 60-65 MPH RANGE LATE THIS MORNING.
PEAK WIND SO FAR AT THE BILLINGS AIRPORT HAS BEEN 58 MPH WITH 44
MPH HERE AT THE OFFICE ON THE WEST END.

SATELLITE IS NOW SHOWING A LARGE AREA OF SUBSIDENCE INDICATIVE OF
HIGH WINDS ACROSS OUR CENTRAL AND EASTERN COUNTIES. SEE NO NEED TO
MAKE ANY CHANGES TO CURRENT WIND HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME. RAWS
SITES ACROSS SOUTHERN BIG HORN AND SHERIDAN COUNTIES HAVE BEEN
SHOWING WIND GUSTS IN THE 40S. IN ADDITION...SATELLITE IS SHOWING
QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER DEVELOPING ACROSS BIG HORN COUNTY AND
POINTS SOUTH AND THIS LIFT MAY COUNTERACT SOME OF THE DOWNWARD
MOMENTUM. AS A RESULT...WE WILL CANCEL THE HIGH WIND WATCH FOR
THESE LOCATIONS. MODELS ARE ALSO BACKING OFF SOME ON WINDS TONIGHT
ACROSS THE AREA SO I HAVE REFLECTED THIS IN THE GRIDS.

FOR SUNDAY...THE UPPER LOW AND SURFACE LOW WILL BE WELL EAST OF
OUR AREA ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. HOWEVER...SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS
WRAPPING AROUND THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY TIGHT SO WE WILL
CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE A WINDY DAY ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF
OUR FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER TOMORROW BUT
STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HOOLEY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...

EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUED TO SHOW A STRONG RIDGE WITH AN AXIS
W OF THE FORECAST AREA AND NW FLOW ALOFT THROUGH FRI. THE PERIOD
LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY OUTSIDE OF SOME SLIGHT POPS IN OUR FAR NE THUR
EVENING THROUGH FRI DUE TO A WEAK DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE NW
FLOW. A STRONGER DISTURBANCE PUSHING THE RIDGE AXIS EASTWARD
TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD MAY BRING BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIP
ACROSS OUR AREA BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE EXAMINED FURTHER PRIOR TO
RAISING POPS ANY FURTHER.

FOOTHILL LOCATIONS NEAR W MNTS AND EASTWARD NEAR BILLINGS LOOK TO
STAY WINDY THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD BUT SFC PRESSURE GRADIENTS
DO NOT SEEM TO SUGGEST ANYTHING ABOVE ADVISORY LEVEL AT THIS TIME.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 50S IN MANY LOCATIONS THROUGH
THE WEEK... WITH TEMPS PUSHING NEAR 60 IN DOWNSLOPING REGIONS ON
TUE... THEN GRADUALLY TRENDING DOWN THROUGH THE PERIOD. MROWELL

&&

.AVIATION...

STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. EXPECT W TO SW WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 55 TO 60 KT OVER
BIG TIMBER AND KLVM AND NW WINDS WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 KT
OVER MOST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...
INCLUDING KBIL AND KMLS. GUSTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS HIGH OVER
KSHR. WINDS WILL DECREASE FROM W TO E THROUGH THE NIGHT. EXPECT
LOCALIZED AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION THROUGH TONIGHT. MROWELL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 028/044 028/050 035/058 036/057 034/054 033/052 033/053
    10/N    00/N    00/N    00/N    00/B    11/N    11/B
LVM 026/042 027/051 038/052 036/051 035/050 033/049 033/049
    10/N    00/N    00/N    00/N    01/N    11/N    11/N
HDN 026/044 022/051 030/057 030/054 028/052 027/050 027/051
    10/N    00/B    00/U    00/U    01/B    11/B    10/B
MLS 027/042 018/044 030/052 032/052 028/045 026/042 026/046
    10/N    00/E    00/B    00/U    02/W    21/E    11/B
4BQ 026/039 021/044 030/052 031/054 027/049 027/045 025/048
    10/N    00/E    00/B    00/U    01/B    11/B    11/B
BHK 025/037 015/040 026/047 030/049 026/041 022/037 021/041
    10/N    00/E    01/E    00/U    02/W    21/E    11/B
SHR 025/040 021/048 029/054 026/054 027/051 026/050 025/050
    20/N    00/B    00/U    00/U    00/B    11/B    10/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR
      ZONES 28>31-34-35-41-42-56-57-63.
     HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MST SUNDAY FOR ZONES
      32-33-36-37.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS


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