Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000
FXUS61 KCAR 281719
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1219 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MAINE
THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EAST TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST
WILL BUILD TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD SATURDAY MORNING AND MOVE INTO
THE ATLANTIC SATURDAY EVENING. LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR
SATURDAY EVENING WILL MOVE ACROSS QUEBEC SUNDAY AND SEND A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE 1220 EST: HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE... WIND AND DEW POINT
BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS. NO OTHER CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WEAK RIDGING OVER THE AREA IS PRODUCING LIGHT WINDS AND SHALLOW
RADIATION INVERSIONS...ESPECIALLY IN SHELTERED NORTHERN LOCATIONS
WHERE THE FIRST ZERO READINGS OF THE SEASON ARE PROBABLE BY
DAYBREAK. CIRRUS AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH IS MITIGATING SOME OF
THE DROP OFF...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS BANGOR. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
SPREAD SOME HIGHER CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. WILL INCREASE
CLOUD COVER TOWARDS PARTLY SUNNY FOR THIS AFTERNOON. SOME VERY
THIN CUMULUS MAY FORM IN NORTHERN ZONES TOO. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE
IN THE LOWER 20S NORTH AND MID 20S FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST.  AS
THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THIS AFTERNOON...SOME FLURRIES IN THE
ALLAGASH AND ST JOHN VALLEY ARE POSSIBLE. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
CROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING...ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ENTERING NORTHERN
ZONES. AS A RESULT...FLURRIES MAY SPREAD ACROSS AROOSTOOK COUNTY
FOR A BRIEF PERIOD EARLY IN THE EVENING. AFTER THE TROUGH
PASSAGE...CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AND A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD STEADILY ALL NIGHT. THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW THE
COLDEST NIGHT OF YEAR TO OCCUR ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH
WIDESPREAD SINGLE DIGIT READINGS. THERE WILL LIKELY BE NUMEROUS
REPORTS LESS THAN ZERO IN THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS NORTH.
LOWS WILL BE A BIT WARMER ALONG THE COAST WITH LOW TEEN READINGS
ANTICIPATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN CONTINUES. A SFC HIGH CRESTS ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD SAT MORNING AND BEGINS TO SLIDE OUT INTO THE
ATLANTIC BY LATE IN THE DAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS MOVES TO LAKE SUPERIOR BY 00Z SUN AND INTO
NORTHERN QUEBEC BY 00Z MON. AFTER ANOTHER COLD DAY SAT A MUCH
MILDER RETURN FLOW SETS UP SUN WITH TEMPERATURES TO BE SOME 15
DEGREES WARMER THAN SAT. OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP LATE SAT NIGHT ACROSS WESTERN MAINE WITH A PERIOD OF
OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
MAINE SUN MORNING. INITIALLY THE AIR MASS WILL LIKELY BE COLD
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A PERIOD OF SNOW WITH THE CHANCE THAT THERE
COULD BE A PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN. THE PRECIPITATION WILL
LIKELY CHANGE TO RAIN BEFORE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST SUN
AFTERNOON. THIS IS NOT GOING TO BE A SIGNIFICANT EVENT WITH MOST
AREAS ONLY EXPECTED TO PICK UP AN INCH OF SNOW...AND MAINLY AREAS
FROM THE KATAHDIN REGION NORTH. WE WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR A
PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN SUN MORNING THAT COULD CAUSE SOME SLICK
SPOTS. BY SUN PM TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN THE M/U 30S ACROSS
NORTHERN MAINE TO THE L/M 40S FOR MUCH OF THE DOWN EAST REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FAST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER
TROUGH DIGGING INTO NW ONTARIO SUN NIGHT MOVES QUICKLY ACROSS
QUEBEC MON NIGHT. THIS IS FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF PERIOD OF RIDGING
ALOFT BEFORE THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO EASTERN CANADA
WED. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MON MORNING AND WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR AS A STRONG SFC RIDGE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA TUE. THE RIDGE QUICKLY RETREATS TO THE EAST
TUE NIGHT WITH SIGNIFICANT MODERATION OF THE AIR MASS BY WED AHEAD
OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD CROSS THE AREA WED NIGHT AND
USHER A COLDER AIR MASS BACK INTO THE AREA THU. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL THAT A WAVE MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND BRING MORE
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION TO PARTS OF THE REGION WED THAT WOULD
LIKELY BE SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE AND A
MIX TO RAIN DOWN EAST. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WOULD BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWFALL ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN
MAINE.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR EXCEPT SOME PERIODS OF THIN MVFR CIGS FROM HUL
NORTHWARD LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: VFR EXPECTED SAT INTO MUCH OF SAT NIGHT. A PERIOD OF
MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING...ESPECIALLY
AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. MOSTLY MVFR MONDAY AND VFR TUE.
IFR/MVFR POSSIBLE AGAIN WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: LONGER PERIOD WAVE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE
TODAY.

SHORT TERM: THE NEXT SCA IS LIKELY SUN AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL LIKELY NEED TO RUN INTO MON. CONDITIONS
SHOULD RETURN TO BELOW SCA LEVELS BY MON EVENING. ANOTHER SCA
LIKELY BY WED AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THIS NOVEMBER IS NOW THE SNOWIEST ON RECORD AT BANGOR
AND THE 6TH SNOWIEST AT CARIBOU. MORE INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON
THE NEWS HEADLINES ON THE TOP OF OUR WEB PAGE AT:
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/CAR

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MIGNONE


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