Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000
FXUS61 KCAR 122109
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
409 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT WHILE A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS INLAND ACROSS OUR AREA.
ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE FROM CENTRAL CANADA WILL APPROACH ON
SUNDAY AND CROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COMPLEX SETUP FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH HAS
BEEN UPGRADED TO WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR 6 TO 15 INCHES OF SNOW.
READ ON FOR DETAILS...

A CLASSIC SETUP FOR A NORLUN EVENT IS SHAPING UP FOR TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
THIS EVENING, THEN GIVE WAY TO A SECONDARY LOW WELL OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW AN INVERTED TROUGH TO DEVELOP ACROSS
WESTERN MAINE LATE TONIGHT AND SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF LIFT AND INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS TROUGH, ALLOWING FOR A BAND OF SNOW TO DEVELOP AS IT
SHIFTS EASTWARD. THERE ARE STILL INDICATIONS THAT THIS COULD BE A
VERY NARROW BUT INTENSE BAND, AS IS OFTEN THE CASE WITH NORLUN
TROUGHS. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED THAT SOME AREAS WILL SEE SNOWFALL
RATES APPROACHING 2 IN/HR. THE OVERALL TREND IN THE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
TO SHIFT THE FOCUS OF THIS BAND OF SNOW FROM ROUGHLY BANGOR SOUTH
AND WEST, WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS OVER PENOBSCOT BAY AND FAR
SOUTHWESTERN HANCOCK COUNTY. IN THESE AREAS, AMOUNTS OF 10 TO 15
INCHES ARE EXPECTED, WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
THESE NUMBERS WILL QUICKLY DROP AS ONE HEADS NORTH AND EAST WITH
PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHERN HANCOCK COUNTY AND LOCATIONS SUCH AS
HOWLAND SEEING ONLY A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW AT BEST. HAVE GONE
AHEAD AN UPGRADED THE WINTER STORM WATCHES TO WARNINGS FOR THE
BANGOR AREA DOWN TO THE COAST, BUT JUST A SLIGHT SHIFT OF THE BAND
OF SNOW ONE WAY OR THE OTHER COULD MAKE FOR SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN
SNOW AMOUNTS.

AWAY FROM THE SNOW BAND, IT`LL BE A CHILLY DAY WITH JUST SOME
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 10 ABOVE IN
THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY TO AROUND 20 ALONG THE COAST. MUCH OF THE
REGION AWAY FROM OUR FAR SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS WILL ONLY GET A FEW
INCHES OF SNOW, WITH FAR NORTHEASTERN MAINE LUCKY TO GET ANY
ACCUMULATION AT ALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS THE BANGOR/MT
DESERT AREAS SATURDAY EVENING DUE TO THE NORLUN TROUGH SETUP
ACROSS THAT REGION. THE SNOW WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD
END BY SUNDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT. VERY COLD TEMPS AND BRISK
WINDS WILL ALSO COMBINE TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS WIND CHILL VALUES
ACROSS MOST OF OUR CWA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE
WORST CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS OUR WRN AND NRN ZONES WHERE
WIND CHILL READINGS MAY REACH 40 BELOW ZERO. DRY CONDITIONS AND
MODERATING TEMPS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE INFLUENCING THE REGIONS WEATHER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE NEXT LOW PRESS SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE CWA AT THE START OF
THE LONG TERM. PRECIP WILL MOVE INTO THE CWA LATE MON NIGHT INTO
TUE AM AS A WARM FRONT EXTENDING NE FROM THE LOW OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC MOVES INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND. PRECIP MAY START AS SNOW FOR
ALL AREAS, BUT LOOKS TO CHANGE TO ALL RAIN FAIRLY QUICKLY AS S-SE
WINDS DRAW 35-40F AIR ONSHORE. JUST HOW LONG THE PERIOD OF RAIN
WILL LAST DEPENDS ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW. THE 12Z GFS
SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE CMC TO THE EAST AND THE ECMWF TO
THE WEST.

THE FCST LEANS IN FAVOR OF THE ECMWF AND GFS, WHICH BOTH HAVE A
SHORTWAVE THAT ALLOWS THE SFC LOW TO DEEPEN AND TAKE A FURTHER
WEST TRACK, THOUGH THEY STILL DISAGREE SOME ON THE EXACT TRACK.
REGARDLESS OF THE DETAILS, WHICH CAN BE REFINED GOING FORWARD, IT
SEEMS LIKELY TO BE A MOSTLY RAIN EVENT WITH PSBL GALE WINDS AND
VERY HIGH SEAS OFFSHORE. THE EVENT WILL WIND DOWN ON WED, BUT LT
SNOW MAY LINGER INTO THU AS THE BASE OF THE 500MB TROF SWINGS
ACROSS THE CWA. THU NIGHT INTO FRI LOOKS CLEAR WITH HIGH PRES AND
RIDGING, THOUGH THE NEXT SYSTEM MAY APPROACH LATER FRI OR SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO MVFR OVERNIGHT,
ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH, AS CEILINGS LOWER AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
TROUGH. SNOW WILL BEGIN AT THE SOUTHERN SITES LATE TONIGHT, AND
EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KBGR AND KBHB BY 12Z SAT AND
REMAIN SO THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. NORTHERN SITES WILL
DROP TO MVFR AT TIMES, BUT OVERALL VFR SHOULD PREVAIL.


SHORT TERM: LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS THE
BANGOR/BAR HARBOR AREA SATURDAY EVENING...WHICH WILL LIKELY REDUCE
VSBYS/CIGS TO IFR OR MVFR CATEGORY. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO
IMPROVE OVERNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST WHERE GUSTS COULD REACH 30 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO THE SOUTH OF THE
WATERS. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY
MORNING, AND APPROACH GALES BY EVENING. LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY WILL
BE LIKELY THROUGH THE DAY AS WELL.


SHORT TERM: STRONG NORTH WINDS WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS UP TO 45 KTS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF OUR COSTAL MARINE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WINDS AND WAVES WILL SUBSIDE TO SCA
CRITERIA BY SUNDAY NIGHT. MODERATE TO HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IS ALSO
EXPECTED ACROSS OUR MARINE FCST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY DUE
TO STRONG WINDS AND VERY COLD TEMPS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MEZ002-
     005-006-011-015>017-031-032.
     WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MEZ001-
     003-004-010.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM SATURDAY TO 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     MEZ015-016-029.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST
     SUNDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM SATURDAY TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ052.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM SATURDAY TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ050-
     051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...BERDES
LONG TERM...KREDENSOR
AVIATION...HASTINGS/BERDES
MARINE...HASTINGS/BERDES


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