Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 281354
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
954 AM EDT Wed Jun 28 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level trough will remain to our west through mid week.
Weather disturbances moving out of the trough will cross the
region today. Another area of low pressure may approach late
Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
950 am update...
An upper level trof will remain across eastern Canada today.
Another in a series of upper level impulses is expected to cross
the region this afternoon setting the stage for more scattered
showers and thunderstorms, especially across northern and
central areas. With low freezing levels, small hail will
continue to be a concern and have continued mention in the
forecast for today. Highs today will range from the mid to upper
60s across northern and central areas and low 70s down east,
except cooler along the immediate coast.

Any lingering scattered showers and thunderstorms will quickly
wind down by early evening setting the stage for partial
clearing overnight. May need to add fog to the forecast
overnight but will look a bit closer at this with the afternoon
update. Lows tonight will range from around 50 north and lower
50s down east.

Overall no significant changes were made to forecast other than
some minor tweaks based on current conditions.


&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
System currently in the nrn Plains wl slowly advance east and set up
shop ovr the wrn Great Lakes by Thur mrng. Wmfnt wl stretch acrs srn
New England in the aftn with wnw flow aloft continuing in vicinity
of CWA. The morning will start out dry but as wvs ripple thru aloft
showers shud quickly dvlp by 15z. Elevated instability wl be present
in the morning and aftn hrs acrs most of the area, thus hv included
slgt chc thunder into the aftn. Instability wl be on the wane fm
west to east by mid-aftn, thus hv rmvd thunder mention fm wrn areas
drg the day but expect as wmfnt mvs thru that elevated convection wl
return to the region aft about midnight.

Warm front wl lift most of the way thru Thur night with an area of
showers along the bndry. Elevated instability looks to be marginal
thus hv only mentioned isold thunder, mainly acrs central and srn
zones. Med range guidance does not bring wmfnt into nrn zones bfr it
shift back south as a cdfnt Fri aftn. Thus hv rmvd thunder mention
fm the north drg the day on Fri.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Frontal bndry stalls Fri evng as yet another wv dvlps back to
the west and shifts it back north as a wmfnt on Sat/Sat ngt.
Expect hichc/lkly pops drg the weekend in unstable airmass.
Cdfnt wl finally mv thru Mon morning and clr out front once and
for all. Latest guidance is now suggesting drier and cooler wx
thru mid-week tho upr-lvl trof lingers in ern Canada thru the
beginning of the work week.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR/VFR flight conditions expected today in sct
showers and tstms today. Mainly VFR tonight.

SHORT TERM: VFR expected on Thu with potential for MVFR in -shra
and -tsra as warm front lifts north Thur night. Off and on MVFR
restrictions will persist through the weekend as frontal
boundary meanders back and forth over the terminals.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Have used the NAM to initialize the wind grids then
reduced model wind speed by 10 percent to correct bias. For
Waves: Currently, southerly swell is the primary wave system (2
feet/7-8 seconds) and is expected to dominate today and tonight.
Wind wave is expected to remain below 1 foot. Will use NWPS for
wave heights. Have also reduced the waves in the Surf Forecast
based on near shore output from NWPS.

SHORT TERM: Winds and seas will remain below SCA levels until
late Thu night. Winds will briefly gust to 25kts late Thu night
with seas remaining above 5 feet beginning around midnight Thu
in southerly swell into early in the weekend and possibly
beyond.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

Near Term...Duda
Short Term...Farrar
Long Term...Farrar
Aviation...Duda/Mignone/Farrar
Marine...Duda/Mignone/Farrar



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