Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 281258
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
758 AM EST Tue Feb 28 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build across the region today. A warm front
will lift across the region Wednesday. A cold front will cross
the region Thursday.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Update...
Have updated the forecast to adjust for current conditions.
Have also transitioned the Small Craft Advisory to a Small Craft
Advisory for Hazardous Seas.

Previous Discussion...
High pressure will move east of the region today. After a
partly/mostly sunny morning expect increasing clouds this
afternoon. Low pressure tracking across the Great Lakes will
begin to draw a warm front north toward the region tonight.
Light precipitation will expand northeast across the forecast
area tonight. Across Central and Downeast areas expect a mix of
rain/snow. Across northern areas expect mostly light snow with
accumulations up to around an inch. High temperatures today will
range from the mid to upper 30s north, to the mid 40s Bangor
and Downeast. Low temperatures tonight will range from the upper
20s to lower 30s north, to the mid 30s Bangor and interior
Downeast with upper 30s along the Downeast coast. Low
temperatures will occur during the early morning hours then
stabilize or begin to slowly warm later tonight.
&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Intense low pressure over the Great Lakes will move
northeastward during Wednesday and pass close to the very
northern portion of Maine late in the day and into the early
evening. Expect precipitation to start as snow in the north then
change to rain later Wednesday Morning as warmer air pushes
northward to the east of the low. Colder air returns from the
northwest Wednesday Night and is expected to change the rain
back to snow in the north before ending. Some accumulation of
snow is possible in the far north and northwest before the snow
ends Thursday.
&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure is expected to build in from the west Friday as
another low pressure system passes well to the south of the
State. Windy conditions are possible Saturday as low pressure
intensifies over the Maritimes and strong high pressure
continues to approach from the west. The high will crest over
the region Sunday then move to the east into the Atlantic. Weak
low pressure is expected to pass to the north Monday.
&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR conditions are expected across the region today.
Conditions will lower to MVFR/IFR levels tonight with mostly
light snow across northern areas with a rain/snow mix across the
remainder of the forecast area.

SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR conditions are possible Wednesday into early
Thursday. VFR conditions are expected late Thursday into
Saturday.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Have transitioned the Small Craft Advisory to a
Small Craft Advisory for Hazardous Seas with this update. This
does not include the intracoastal waters. Small craft advisory
conditions are expected to develop on the waters again tonight.
Visibilities will be reduced in rain tonight.

SHORT TERM: Have used the GFS for sustained winds through the
day Thursday then transition to the Super Blend Winds. Expect
increasing winds as low passes Wednesday Night into Thursday so
will issue a Gale Watch. For waves: A significant southerly
fetch is expected to develop from the Gulf of Maine Southward
early Wednesday. This fetch will persist into the day Thursday
until the fetch is broken up by the wind shift. Expect wave
heights to build to a maximum of around 14 feet/10-11 seconds
early Thursday then slowly subside. Wave heights are expected to
be slow to subside due to the length of this fetch and should
remain above 5 feet into Friday Morning. Will use the Near Shore
Wave Model through the day Thursday then transition to the Wave
Watch III.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Gale Watch from Wednesday evening through Thursday evening for
     ANZ050>052.
     Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 10 AM EST this
     morning for ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

Near Term...Norcross
Short Term...Mignone
Long Term...Mignone
Aviation...Norcross/Mignone
Marine...Norcross/Mignone


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