Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000
FXUS61 KCAR 291012
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
612 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY THEN MOVE EAST OF THE
REGION TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT THEN EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
6 AM UPDATE...DECREASED CLOUD COVER TO GO CLEAR ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION. ALSO RAISED TEMPS A BIT EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE, NO
MAJOR CHANGES THIS HOUR.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND EXTENDING
NORTH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING PLENTY OF BRIGHT SUNSHINE
TODAY. SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS WILL STRAY
INTO NORTHERN AREAS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. THE LATE MARCH
SUNSHINE WILL BOOST TEMPS TO THE MID 30S ACROSS THE AREA. TONIGHT
WILL BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY EARLY WITH CLOUDS INCREASING LATER
AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WITH AN INCREASING
SOUTHERLY GRADIENT AND INCREASING CLOUDS, FORECAST LOWS ARE A
COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE AND EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID
20S ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALONG WITH AN UPPER TROF WILL CROSS THE
REGION LATER MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THEN EXIT TO THE EAST
EARLY TUESDAY. SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...WITH ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AN
INCH OR LESS. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS MOSTLY THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS EARLY
TUESDAY WITH DECREASING CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. PARTLY
SUNNY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED DOWNEAST TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD EAST TOWARD THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES NORTH AND PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES DOWNEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT NEAR NORMAL...TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL...LEVELS MONDAY/TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BEGINS TO MOVE EAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTHWEST OF MAINE WILL BEGIN TO
DRAW A WARM FRONT TOWARD THE REGION LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOSTLY
CLEAR/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY WITH A
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW NORTH AND A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW
DOWNEAST. UNCERTAINTY THEN BEGINS TO DEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHT
REGARDING WHETHER A COLD FRONT IS ABLE TO MOVE EAST OF THE REGION
BEFORE STALLING OR STALLS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE KEPT A
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH A CHANCE OF
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS DOWNEAST. MODELS INDICATE LOW PRESSURE LIFTING
ALONG THE STALLED COLD FRONT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS REGARDING WHETHER
THE LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OR WHETHER THE STALLED
FRONT IS LOCATED TO THE EAST AND THE LOW JUST CLIPS MOSTLY
DOWNEAST AREAS. THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW IS ALSO UNCERTAIN.
PRECIPITATION TYPES AND AMOUNTS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE EVENTUAL
TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE LOW. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY...HAVE
KEPT ONLY A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT BELOW NORMAL LEVELS
WEDNESDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
THE EVENTUAL LOCATION OF THE STALLED FRONT AND TRACK OF THE LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY INTO TONIGHT. SOME
SITES MAY DROP TO MVFR LATE TONIGHT IN INCREASING WARM ADVECTION
CLOUDS. SOME MINOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR FOR SOUTHERLY WINDS
INCREASE TO 30 KT AT 2K FT IS LIKELY VERY LATE TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR/IFR LEVELS ACROSS THE
REGION EARLY MONDAY WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY NIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN LINGER
ACROSS THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY...WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS DOWNEAST. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE THEN EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION LATER TUESDAY INTO
EARLY THURSDAY. OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN POSSIBLE
LATER THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: AN SCA FOR SEAS OVER 5 FT WILL BE UP THROUGH MIDDAY FOR
OUR OUTERS WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO BE BELOW
SCA LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. WIND GUSTS MAY BEGIN TO
APPROACH SCA LEVELS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS LATE TONIGHT AS A
SOUTHERLY WIND INCREASING AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING WELL TO
THE NORTH.

SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. VISIBILITIES COULD BE REDUCED IN SHOWERS
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...BLOOMER/NORCROSS
MARINE...BLOOMER/NORCROSS


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