Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KCAR 180457
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1257 AM EDT Fri Aug 18 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will crest over the area tonight. A warm front
will approach Friday then lift across the area Friday night. An
occluded front will slowly cross the region Saturday through
Saturday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1255 AM update...No significant changes were made with this
update. Current temps are near or below previously posted lows
in many locations, so have dropped the expected min temps a few
degrees. Otherwise, the forecast is on track.

Previous discussion....The area of low pressure to our
northeast, both surface and aloft, that has been giving our cool
gusty breeze today will exit east across the Maritimes tonight.
Winds will diminish this evening and any lingering
stratocumulus across the northeast will dissipate as high
pressure builds over. Clouds will begin to increase from the
southwest late tonight and continue to overspread the area on
Friday as a warm front approaches. The front is expected to
bring some rain, moving across western areas during the morning
and then pushing across the rest of the area by late afternoon.
Forecast will include rain instead of showers since this is
expected to be an overunning event. Humid air moving across the
colder waters may result in some fog over the waters and along
the coast by late Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A warm front will lift across the region Friday night.
Isentropic lift and precipitable water values increasing to
1.50 to 2.00 inches will support an area of overrunning rain
crossing the region Friday night through early Saturday. An
occluded front then slowly crosses the region Saturday through
Saturday night, with an upper level trof also approaching
Saturday night. Shower chances will persist across the forecast
area later Saturday into Saturday night, though decreasing
across Downeast areas later Saturday night. The heavier rain
totals Friday night through Saturday night are expected across
Downeast areas where generally 0.75 inch up to around 1.00 inch
of rain are expected. Lesser rain totals are expected northward
across the remainder of the forecast area with 0.25 inch to 0.50
inch across northern areas, though more uncertainty exists
regarding rain totals across the north. The upper trof crosses
the region Sunday keeping a chance of showers along with mostly
cloudy/partly sunny skies across the north and mountains with
partly sunny skies and only a slight chance of showers Downeast.
Temperatures will be at slightly below normal levels Saturday.
Near normal, to slightly above normal, level temperatures are
expected Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Some weak upper ridging and a surface high passing to the south
should allow for clear and dry conditions through Monday. Some
clouds will roll in Mon night, or Tue AM at the latest, as the
next system approaches from the west. Some showers and perhaps a
few storms may pop up in the western half of the CWA Tue
afternoon, but the better chance for precip will be Tue night
and Wed as the front approaches and then passes through. Due to
decent overall model agreement, did go above 50 on POPs, mainly
in area around expected position of front. However, changes in
the forecast timing of the front, to be expected this far out,
could lead to changes in POPs. Weak surface ridging behind the
front may allow for some clearing next Thu, but the upper trough
will remain overhead, so at least some continuing fractured
cloud cover is possible.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR conditions are expected across the area tonight
into Friday. Conditions may drop to MVFR downeast late Friday as
lower clouds move in.

SHORT TERM: IFR/LIFR conditions are expected across the region
Friday night through early Saturday, with MVFR/IFR conditions
later Saturday into Saturday night, though improving conditions
are expected Downeast later Saturday night. Occasional MVFR
conditions are possible across the region early Sunday,
improving to VFR levels during the afternoon. VFR conditions are
expected Sunday night into Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Seas will continue to gradually subside tonight and
winds diminish as high pressure builds over. Winds and seas
should be below SCA on Friday. Humid air over the cooler waters
may result in some fog reducing visibilities on Friday,
especially late in the day.

SHORT TERM: Small craft advisory level seas are expected later
Friday night into Sunday. Visibilities will be reduced in fog
Friday night into Saturday night. Rain will also occur Friday
night into early Saturday, with a chance of showers later
Saturday into Saturday night.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

Near Term...Bloomer/Hastings
Short Term...Norcross
Long Term...Kredensor
Aviation...Bloomer/Hastings/Norcross
Marine...Bloomer/Hastings/Norcross



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.