Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 121009
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
609 AM EDT SAT JUL 12 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH ON SUNDAY AND SLOWLY MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
609 AM UPDATE...ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL START TO THE DAY WITH LOTS OF
SUNSHINE ACROSS THE CWA. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS JUST A FEW
PATCHES OF FOG IN THE RIVER VALLEYS WHICH WILL DISSIPATE BY 7 AM.
THE FOG IS NOT AS EXTENSIVE AS IT WAS THIS TIME YESTERDAY MORNING.
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS
AND SATELLITE PICTURES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A NICE START THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST TODAY SETTING UP A RETURN FLOW OF
WARMER AIR. ALTHOUGH THE DEW POINTS WILL BE A BIT HIGHER THAN THE
LAST TWO DAYS THIS AFTERNOON THEY WILL STILL STAY IN THE
COMFORTABLE RANGE. A BIT OF PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG IS POSSIBLE
EARLY THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE A SUNNY DAY WITH JUST A BIT OF CU
DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL
DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOW 80S
INLAND. A SEA BREEZE WILL KICK IN BY EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG THE
COAST. THE RETURN FLOW BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED TONIGHT AND WITH
SOME INCREASE IN THE CLOUD COVER IT WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS COOL AS
THE PAST FEW NIGHTS WITH LOWS MOSTLY 55 TO 60 DEGREES. WILL NEED
TO WATCH OUT FOR THE POSSIBILITY THAT SOME PATCHES OF LOWER CLOUDS
AND FOG ADVANCE TOWARD THE COAST LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES. A SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL BRING INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR
ACROSS THE REGION. SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE A THUNDERSTORM WILL
BE LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH MOVES IN. SHOWERS MAY
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY EVENING. THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY IS VERY
CHALLENGING AS THERE ARE BIG DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS. THE
GFS IS CARRYING A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE INTO THE AREA BRINGING A
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON INCLUDING A CHANCE FOR
SOME HEAVE DOWNPOURS. THE NAM PUSHES THE MOISTURE EAST AND HAS
DRIER AIR CIRCULATING IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE NEW
CANADIAN GEM AND ECMWF ARE CLOSER TO THE NAM SOLUTION. FOR NOW
WILL FORECAST MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ALTHOUGH IT
MAY NOT BE UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEKEND THAT WE RESOLVE DETAILS OF
MONDAY`S WEATHER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY THEN LIFTING INTO EASTERN CANADA TUESDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TUESDAY
ALTHOUGH DRIER AIR CIRCULATING INTO THE TROUGH FROM THE WEST
SOUTHWEST MAY BRING PARTIAL CLEARING LATE IN THE DAY. AS THE
TROUGH LIFTS AWAY THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK DRIER AIR
SHOULD BRING PARTIAL SUNSHINE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES DURING THE MID AND LATE WEEK SHOULD BE SEASONABLY
COMFORTABLE WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: OUTSIDE OF ANY EARLY MORNING RIVER VALLEY FOG EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING. PATCHES OF STRATUS MAY DEVELOP
OFF THE OCEAN AND MOVE INTO KBHB AND POSSIBLY KBGR LATE TONIGHT.
PLAN WITH THE 12Z TAFS TO INTRODUCE SOME IFR CONDITIONS AT KBHB
STARTING AROUND 07Z TONIGHT AND SPREAD THEM INLAND TO KBGR BY 10Z.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY MAY LOWER TO MVFR IN LOWER
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY. IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS ON MONDAY. IFR OR MVFR
CONDITIONS TUESDAY MAY IMPROVE TO VFR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS DRIER
AIR MOVES IN. VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SEAS ARE RUNNING AROUND 2 FT ON THE COASTAL WATERS AND
1-2 FT ON THE INTRA-COASTAL WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING. AS HIGH
PRES MOVES EAST OF THE WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT A S/SW FLOW WILL
DEVELOP...BUT THE WIND AND SEAS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SCA LEVELS
THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: WIND GUSTS MAY APPROACH 25 KT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY IN
SOUTHWESTERLIES AHEAD OF A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. AN SCA MAY BE
NEEDED TUESDAY IN SOUTH WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 KT AND HUMID AIR
OVER THE WATERS MAY PRODUCE SOME FOG. SEAS MAY APPROACH 5 TO 6 FT
MONDAY AND UP TO 7 TO 8 FT TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE SOUTH WINDS.
WINDS SHOULD THEN BE MUCH LIGHTER WEDNESDAY INTO THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CB
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...CB/BLOOMER
MARINE...CB/BLOOMER








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