Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, SC

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FXUS62 KCHS 232322
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
622 PM EST Tue Jan 23 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build in from the west tonight and prevail
through the end of the work week. Another cold front will
impact the area early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
This Evening and Tonight: Dry high pressure was building from
the west. The setup will support a quiet night of weather.
Winds will decrease fairly quick post-sunset. Good radiational
cooling under clear skies for the overnight. Temps should dip
into the mid/upper 30s late, lowest inland.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Quiet weather is expected to persist through the period. Surface
high pressure will build into the region from the west on Wednesday.
A shortwave will move across Wednesday night, helping send a
reinforcing shot of cooler, drier air through the area. The surface
high will then shift overhead Thursday and eventually offshore on
Friday. Subsidence and dry air will preclude any mentionable PoPs.
Temperatures will be fairly seasonable, although slightly warmer on
Friday as the flow turns onshore.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure will be moving offshore Friday night and a strong cold
front will approach from the west on Saturday. The 00Z models show
differences in the timing and the rainfall potential. The GFS is the
outlier and the ECMWF and Canadian are relatively similar. We opted
to go with the foreign duo of models, which seems more realistic and
keeps the overall forecast pretty similar to what we had. POPs
gradually increase on Saturday, followed by rain on Sunday. Periods
of heavy rain and thunderstorms are not out of the question, but
we`re still several days out. Following frontal passage, building
high pressure and dry conditions are expected on Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions will prevail at both KCHS and KSAV terminals
through 00Z Thursday.

Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR through Saturday. Potential for
flight restrictions may increase Sunday as rain chances increase
ahead of a cold front.

&&

.MARINE...
This Evening and Tonight: An enhanced pressure gradient along/near
a departing front along with a fair amount of cold air advection
behind it, will support southwest/west winds near 15-20 kt
early on. A Small Craft Advisory for AMZ350 was allowed to
expire at 6 PM. Seas will peak at 3-5 ft early this evening,
then subside to 2-4 ft tonight with largest waves beyond 20 NM
in offshore flow.

Wednesday through Sunday: Surface high pressure is expected to
prevail through the end of the week. A brief surge expected
Wednesday night into Thursday, and wind speeds, especially in the
outer GA waters, could support a Small Craft Advisory. It looks
marginal at this time so will continue to monitor trends. Beyond
that, winds/seas will remain below advisory levels. A cold front
will approach from the west late in the weekend.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
The KCLX radar remains out of service until further notice.
Repairs are ongoing. Adjacent radars include: KLTX, KCAE, KJGX,
KVAX and KJAX.

The Downtown Charleston observation site (CHLS1/KCXM) remains
out of service until further notice.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...ECT
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
EQUIPMENT...



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