Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, SC

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FXUS62 KCHS 180548
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
1248 AM EST Sat Nov 18 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will prevail through Saturday with a mainly dry
cold front passing through Saturday night into Sunday morning.
High pressure will then return through much of next week,
although at least one low pressure system could affect the area
mid to late next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Early this morning: Temperatures have fallen quite quickly in
the last few hours, with some upper 30s showing up in area
observations. Could see some shallow ground fog across the area,
but no visibility reductions of significance are expected.
Clouds will continue to expand across the forecast area with
high clouds streaming in from the northwest, and stratocumulus
increasing in coverage across southeast Georgia.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
Pretty good model agreement this period leads to high forecast
confidence. High pressure will be giving way to an approaching cold
front Saturday but increasing southerly winds will bring warmer
temperatures. The front is expected to move through Saturday night
into Sunday morning but limited moisture will only bring small rain
chances to the area. Cooler temperatures will move in behind the
front Sunday into Monday and could be cold enough /mid 30s/ Monday
morning for some frost across inland areas. Can`t even completely
rule out freezing temperatures in the normally colder inland rural
spots, mainly toward the CSRA/Midlands where winds should be less.

Lake Winds...Winds will increase on Lake Moultrie Saturday night
into Sunday as a cold front passes through the area, possibly
reaching marginal Advisory levels.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Dry high pressure is expected to prevail much of next week but
a Gulf surface low could lift northeast late in the week and
potentially bring some precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through 06z Sunday.
Satellite imagery shows expanding VFR stratocumulus deck across
southeast Georgia. Expect conditions to be scattered but there
could be periods of VFR ceilings at KSAV. Otherwise, winds will
turn southerly with some low end gusts possible this afternoon.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Brief/minor restrictions possible
Saturday night into Sunday morning due to low clouds/showers
with a passing cold front. Breezy/gusty conditions over 20 knots
at times Saturday afternoon through Sunday afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Rest of Tonight: No significant changes made. A northeast
oriented pressure gradient within a high pressure regime will
produce northeast winds around 15 kt and seas as high as 3-5 ft
this evening, but expect condition to improve later in the
evening as the main center of high pressure to our north
reaches the Mid-Atlantic coast. Overnight, the pressure
gradient will begin to relax as the center of high pressure to
our north shifts off the Mid-Atlantic coast. The pattern change
will eventually turn winds from northeast to southeast
overnight. In general, winds will diminish to 5-10 kt after
midnight while seas range between 2-4 ft.

Saturday through Wednesday: Conditions will go downhill Saturday as
the pressure gradient tightens ahead of an approaching cold front
but should stay below Advisory levels until Saturday night when the
front passes. Best chances appear to be across the SC waters outside
Charleston Harbor and across the GA offshore waters. Conditions will
then improve later Sunday with some deterioration again toward mid
week when another cold front is expected to move through Tuesday
night, although no Advisories are anticipated at this time.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...BSH/RJB
MARINE...DPB/RJB



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