Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, SC

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FXUS62 KCHS 250124
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
924 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE COAST TONIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
QUIET CONDITIONS AGAIN TONIGHT. A DEEP ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTS
WHICH WILL KEEP A RISK FOR STRATOCUMULUS TO MOVE INLAND FROM OFF
THE ATLANTIC FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT AS A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH
APPROACHES THE COAST. IN FACT...SOME FAIRLY THINK CLOUDS ARE
POISED TO PUSH INTO MUCH OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA OVERNIGHT WHERE
SKIES WILL BECOME/REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY. ADJUSTED THE SKY COVER
FORECAST SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR SATELLITE AND SHORT TERM MODEL
TRENDS. THE RISK FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER WILL PERSIST OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING...SOME OF WHICH COULD BRUSH PORTIONS
OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER GEORGIA COAST. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE IS
NOT OVERLY AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPING MEASURABLE RAINFALL
OVERNIGHT WHICH IS NOT UNUSUAL IN THIS PATTERN. WILL NOT INCLUDE
MENTIONABLE POPS ATTM FOR ANY LAND AREAS. LOWS FORM THE MID-UPPER
60S INLAND WITH LOWER 70S COAST LOOK ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT DEEP HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY BEFORE POSSIBLY BREAKING DOWN SLIGHTLY
WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO IMPINGE ON THE AREA FROM THE
WEST. A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OR TWO COULD ALSO IMPACT
THE AREA BREAKING UP THE MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTIVE PATTERN WHEREBY
SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD FIRE UP ALONG THE INLAND-MOVING SEA
BREEZE EACH AFTERNOON. DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING DURING THE
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST...SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH IN
THE WAY OF RAINFALL OVERALL.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY THOUGH
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS DO NOT LOOK TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE. SLIGHTLY
BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY INLAND. A SLIGHTLY DRIER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES IN
FROM THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MINIMIZING RAIN CHANCES.
HIGHS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR. THERE IS A CHANCE MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP AT KSAV AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS STRATOCUMULUS MOVES INLAND FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC. HOWEVER,
GUIDANCE IS LESS THAN KEEN ON ITS POTENTIAL AND THERE IS NOT
ENOUGH EVIDENCE TO JUSTIFY INTRODUCTION OF SUB-VFR CIGS WITH THIS
TAF CYCLE. THIS WILL BE REEVALUATED FOR THE 06Z TAF CYCLE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
MID WEEK...MAINLY AT KSAV LATE NIGHT THROUGH AROUND NOON EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...THE NEARLY STEADY STATE FORECAST CONTINUES AS HIGH
PRESSURE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST DRIVES AN ELEVATED EASTERLY FLOW
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE AS HIGH AS 15-20 KT AT TIMES.
SEAS 3-4 FT OUT TO 20 NM AND 4-6 FT BEYOND.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO PERSIST KEEPING A
SOLID ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN A BIT
WORSE THAN NORMAL GIVEN THE ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
PERSISTENT FETCH. WITH 6 FOOT SEAS NOW EXPECTED TO PERSIST A BIT
LONGER BEYOND 20 NM WE EXTENDED THE ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS...ALTHOUGH
COULD COME CLOSE IN CHARLESTON HARBOR EACH AFTERNOON AS THE SEA
BREEZE KICKS IN.

RIP CURRENTS...MARGINAL SWELLS AND PERSISTENT/ELEVATED/ONSHORE WINDS
WILL CONTINUE MONDAY AND GIVEN THE HOLIDAY WE LEANED TOWARD
MAINTAINING THE SLIGHTLY ENHANCED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$

ST


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