Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 252208
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
610 PM EDT Sun Jun 25 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper trough will linger over the Great Lakes region though
Tuesday. A series of weak cold fronts will cross the local area
the next couple of days. High pressure will build over the
region for the middle part of the week but another storm system
will impact the region late in the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Isolated small convective cells possible next hour or two then focus
shifts into mainly the snowbelt counties for the rest of the night
as the latest in a series of upper level short waves drops se toward
Lake Erie. Height fall with colder air aloft should start to
support some lake enhanced shra for mainly the second half of the
night.

The increasing chc for shra in the snowbelt while the rest of the
area become more stable will lead to a flip-flop in the cloud cover
with the snowbelt becoming mostly cloudy later in the night while
much of the rest of the area see the diurnal cumulus from this
afternoon dissipate by late evening.

Temps will be unseasonably cool tonight with lows in the low to mid
50s except upper 50s right along the lakeshore.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Should see more precip coverage on Monday than today and
yesterday as yet another piece of energy moves across the area.
This will cause a further dip in mid level temps resulting in
more unstable air. Moisture will also be a tad better so will
mention showers and possible thunder all areas tomorrow and
tomorrow evening. Best chances in the south and west will be
tomorrow evening as another slug of energy moves across central
Ohio. Ridging will begin later Tuesday and western areas should
be dry. Lingering showers will persist in the east into early
evening. The surface ridge will move east of the area by
daybreak Wednesday which with allow a warm up to begin.
Wednesday should be dry and still think much of Wednesday night
will also be dry especially if the new 12z models are correct.
Have again lowered precip chances prior to 12z Thursday. Best
chances by that time will be in the north.

Highs both Monday an Tuesday will struggle to reach 70 degrees
most areas. Have used a blend of guidance most of the period.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
After the surface high/upper ridge shift east, area will return to a
more seasonable set up and with a frontal boundary draped across the
lower Great Lakes/northern OH/PA, daily precipitation chances will
need to be in the forecast.  Depending on timing of impulses, there
will be a lull between one lead wave Thursday and the next Friday
night. But since this is far out yet, have generic likely precip
chances for several periods. Precipitation chances finally dwindle
behind the front as we head into the weekend. Temperatures will be
seasonable.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Sunday THROUGH Friday/...
Showers/isolated thunderstorms should remain confined to near
ERI. Others will have VFR passing cumulus. After those cu fade
this evening, expect mid clouds to overspread the area pre-dawn
as the next shortwave aloft/weak surface trough approaches.
Expecting VFR out of this too outside of showers/thunderstorms.
Primary focus showers/ts for late tonight and Monday will be
across the lake and into the traditional snowbelt counties in a
lake enhanced scenario with cold temperatures aloft/relatively
warm waters. West gusts will subside with sunset tonight and
then pick back up again for Monday.

OUTLOOK...Local non-VFR in showers Monday afternoon into
Tuesday morning. Non-VFR possible again Thursday into Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds at their peak this afternoon across the central/eastern
nearshore and will diminish after sunset. Believe the winds will
stay below the 22 knot threshold across the western basin and have
dropped that part of the small craft advisory early. Now small craft
advisories are a likely bet again tomorrow across the entire stretch
of nearshore waters with west-southwest flow of 20 to 25 knots. A
cold front Monday night will bring winds around to the west-
northwest.  High pressure will build across the Ohio Valley and
lower lakes to the mid Atlantic from Tuesday through Thursday. The
next system will approach the Great Lakes for the weekend bringing
summertime weather and a southwest flow to Lake Erie for Thursday
into Friday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM EDT this evening for
     OHZ009>012-089.
PA...Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM EDT this evening for
     PAZ001.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for
 LEZ145>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kubina
NEAR TERM...Kubina/Adams
SHORT TERM...Kubina
LONG TERM...Oudeman
AVIATION...Oudeman
MARINE...Oudeman


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