Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 232307

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
607 PM EST Thu Nov 23 2017

High pressure centered over the lower Ohio valley will slide east
and move off the Mid Atlantic Coast Friday.   Low pressure will
track across James Bay Friday night forcing a cold front across the
forecast area.


A band of warm advection mid level clouds over the east half of the
CWA will shift off to the east thru midnight leaving most of the
area clear to mostly clear.  Do not think the winds will totally
decouple tonight, thus keeping a weak south flow over the area.
Overnight lows should be a few degrees warmer than last night, with
lows from the upper 20s inland to lower 30s along the lake.

Tomorrow will be mostly sunny with highs soaring into the upper 40s
to lower 50s. High pressure centered over the Upper Ohio Valley will
move off the Mid Atlantic coast tomorrow setting up a brisk SWLY


Models continue to bring cold front across the forecast
area late Friday night ushering in cooler conditions.  Not alot of
moisture initially with the front so do not expect much in the way
of precip Friday night. What precip that does fall should be liquid
as thicknesses support rain.

The weak cold front will move east of the area Saturday morning. The
models show decent subsidence and drying behind the front but will
use caution this time of year with a WNW flow and cold advection and
assume that there will be some stratocumulus. The clouds will
probably increase again at some point as the models continue to hint
at a secondary cold front later Saturday or Saturday evening. This
could lead to some lake enhanced showers that will eventually change
to snow showers in the snowbelt. The lake snow will likely be light
as the air does not get all that cold and the opportunity for lake
effect diminishes quickly on Sunday as winds begin to back and warm
advection develops. Clearing or partial clearing will spread east on
Sunday and temps will recover to the lower or mid 40s across NW OH.

The ECMWF brings a trailing short wave across the Great Lakes early
Monday while the GFS is all in on the southwest flow and warm
advection. The NCEP discussion favors the ECMWF in the mid range
portion of the forecast and will hedge the forecast in that
direction. Partly cloudy Monday and will not go as warm as the GFS
suggests. Highs mostly in the 40s to near 50.


Low pressure tracks across Ontario towards James Bay on Monday night
with a trailing cold front crossing the area on Tuesday night.
Moisture looks very limited with the front and precipitation is
questionable. Will carry a chance of showers for the snowbelt where
Lake Erie may contribute a minimal amount of moisture, with just a
slight chance elsewhere. Highs on Tuesday will be in the mid to
upper 50s with a breezy southwest flow, dropping back into the mid
to upper 40s behind the front on Wednesday.

High pressure builds east across the area on Wednesday. After that
plenty of uncertainty in the forecast with how the models handle a
cut-off piece of energy approaching from the plains. Spreads exists
with respect to strength and track, ranging from the Tennessee to
the Ohio Valley. Sufficient moisture expected to need a chance of
showers in the forecast, but adjustments will be needed to precip
type, timing, and coverage.


.AVIATION /00Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
VFR conditions will continue through the entire forecast period. Mid
level deck over east part of area will move off to the east thru 04z
leaving just a few cirrus until more mid level clouds start to
arrive from the NW Fri evening. Light SSW winds will increase Fri to
be gusting 18 to 24 knots in the afternoon.

OUTLOOK...The next chance for non-VFR conditions will come Saturday
as another cold front moves through. Potential for lake effect snow
snowbelt east of CLE Saturday night into Sunday.


The southwest flow will continue to increase for a while tonight as
the pressure gradient tightens ahead of a weak cold front. The
strongest winds and higher waves will remain in the open waters. The
front will sag toward Lake Erie but should weaken and slide off the
the east on Friday. The lightening of the winds will be brief as
winds will back to the south on Friday and begin to pick up again
ahead of the next weak cold front. A small craft advisory will
probably be necessary by Friday night.

The front will drop across the lake early Saturday morning. Winds
will be WSW for a while on Saturday until a secondary cold front
drops across the lake and winds become more WNW Saturday night into
early next week. Small craft advisories will probably be necessary
over the weekend into early next week.




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