Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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018
FXUS61 KCLE 010136
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
936 PM EDT Sun Apr 30 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front along the south shore of Lake Erie will move north
tonight. Deepening low pressure over the Plains will move north
to Wisconsin Monday and Ontario on Tuesday. The associated cold
front will move across the local area on Monday. Cooler and
blustery weather will spread across the area behind the cold
front. Another strong low pressure system will develop by
Thursday in the lower Ohio Valley.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Thunderstorms over the north central portions of the area
continue to weaken and move north of the area at this time. More
showers and weak thunderstorms will move into the northwest
corner over the next hour otherwise, will only keep a chance of
showers and thunderstorms for the early part of the night. Then,
as cold front approaches from the west, expecting more
convection to move east into the area with the front and will
arrive at Toledo and Findlay by day break. Warm front should
finally start to push north over the next several hours as low
approaches from the west. Winds will increase as well from the
south to southwest as low level jet develops over the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
The showers will likely out run the front on Monday as the flow
aloft is SSW. New showers and thunderstorms will redevelop east
of I-77, perhaps along the route 7/11 corridor from Youngstown
to Ashtabula or just east of there. The highest instability will
likely be farther east in central PA and upstate NY but will
have to monitor the development Monday afternoon. Stronger winds
will mix down behind the front and Monday will become a windy
day especially from around the I-71 corridor west across NW
Ohio. Cold advection will develop but it will remain relatively
mild for May 1st with highs from the upper 60s to the mid 70s.

A few wrap around showers with the trough aloft will develop
later Monday afternoon and evening. The majority of the showers
will probably occur Monday night. Cooler Monday night. Forecast
lows near guidance in the 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Lingering wrap around moisture will lead to a chance for a few
showers Tuesday afternoon as the upper level trough moves off to the
northeast. The best chance will be across the northern half of Ohio
into northwest Pennsylvania. The chance for showers will come to an
end Tuesday evening into Tuesday night as a surface high begins to
nudge in from the west. Tuesday afternoon will be windy once again
with wind gusts around 35 to 40 mph expected across the western half
of Ohio, and only slightly weaker winds farther east.

The high will be over the Great Lakes region Wednesday, and this
should keep most everyone dry through the day with much calmer
winds. It`s possible a few showers could make it into far southern
areas by late afternoon, but that will be more likely after dark.

A low will be moving eastward near or just south of the Ohio River
Thursday. This will mean widespread rain for most everyone. Far
northwest Ohio will be on the edge of the rain shield, so have lower
PoPs in that area. Winds will turn out of the east and northeast as
the low moves off to the east later Thursday. Winds then turn more
northerly Friday and Friday night and will turn out of the northwest
for the weekend. Gusty winds are expected Friday, and possibly
Thursday as well. The strongest winds will be near the lakeshore and
across northwest Ohio. The upper-level low will likely stall out
somewhere in the region Friday into the weekend. This would mean
continued rain chances through this period. Where exactly it stalls
out will play a key role in where the best chance of rain will be,
so for now just have chance PoPs everywhere until we can get a
better feel on where exactly it will stall out. Temperatures will be
below normal the entire period.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
Warm front will eventually begin to push north of the area tonight
as low pressure begins to approach from the west. Thunderstorms
along the warm front should begin to lift northeast of the area
as well as the front lifts north. Cold front will push east
across the area Monday morning causing some showers and
thunderstorms to develop along the front. Once the front moves
east, winds will increase to 15 to 30 knots during the day.
Ceilings will improve to VFR through the rest of the afternoon
Monday.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR and scattered showers possible Monday night
through Tuesday night and again Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds are starting to diminish over the lake in part due to the
effects of the thunderstorms over the lake and the warm front
beginning to make a push north. Expecting winds to increase
again during the night from the south as low level jet develops
over the area. Dropped the small craft advisory over the lake as
winds diminish. Not expecting waves to reach 4 feet with the
south wind behind the warm front.

Previous Discussion...
East to northeast winds continue on the lake. Marginal small
craft conditions continue and will let the headline go till
later this morning. Winds will eventually flip to a more
southerly direction but that probably won`t occur till sometime
this evening. A cold front is still on track to cross the lake
on Monday. Southwesterly wind behind the front will become
westerly on Tuesday. There will be a good push of cold air
behind the front and speeds will come up. Will likely need
another prolonged period of small craft headlines beginning
sometime Monday night and likely continuing into Wednesday.
Winds will flip to an easterly direction on Thursday in response
to the low entering the lower OH Valley.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kosarik
NEAR TERM...Lombardy
SHORT TERM...Kosarik
LONG TERM...Mottice
AVIATION...Lombardy
MARINE...Lombardy/Mottice



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