Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 300115
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
915 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO ALLOW HIGH
PRESSURE TO DROP SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA FOR THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE
AREA FOR SUNDAY THEN HANG AROUND THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... HEAVIER RAIN HAVE JUST
NOT MATERIALIZED. CURRENT PRECIP LIGHT. PER THE HRRR AND RAP WILL
PROBABLY SEE SOME LIGHT CONVECTION DEVELOP IN THE EAST HALF AS THE
NIGHT PROGRESSES BUT DON`T SEE ANYBODY GETTING A HALF AN INCH OR
MORE. THUS WILL DROP THE REST OF THE FLOOD WATCH. WILL KEEP HIGHER
POPS IN THE EAST PER THE CURRENT RADAR AND NEAR TERM MODEL PROGS.
SMALL TO SLIGHT CHC WILL BE LEFT FOR THE WEST.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT WITH THE
CLOUD COVER AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE
WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 60. TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS LOW
SO ANY BREAKS IN CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME PATCHY FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE GREAT LAKES AS A
STRONGER PIECE OF JET ENERGY PASSES NEAR THE AREA. THIS SHOULD
PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER THERE
IS UNCERTAINTY OF WHAT WILL PROVIDE THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE TO GET
THE SHOWERS/THUNDER TO DEVELOP. THE MAIN FOCUS APPEARS TO BE THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. THE TROUGH WILL
REMAIN ALOFT ON WEDNESDAY AND WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY/OUTFLOWS IN
THE AREA THERE MAY BE SOME MORE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN COUNTY WARNING AREA. HIGH PRESSURE ATTEMPTS TO BUILD
INTO THE REGION FOR THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS.

HIGHS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MIDDLE 70S
BUT MAY BE IMPACTED BY CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS EACH DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND MIGHT END UP HAVING MORE FAIR WEATHER THAN
UNSETTLED. GFSENS HAS TRENDED FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE STORM TRACK.
HAVE LEANED THAT DIRECTION WHICH FALLS IN LINE WITH THE WPC PROGS.
MUCH WEAKER MID AND UPPER FLOW THAN WE HAVE SEEN RECENTLY ALTHOUGH
THE EASTERN U.S. KEEPS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WHILE THE WEST RETAINS
THE RIDGE. TWO WEAK SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW...ONE POSSIBLY
SATURDAY AND THE OTHER SUNDAY NIGHT. THE SURFACE HIGH HOLDS STRONG
OVER THE LOCAL AREA FOR FRIDAY AND TO SOME DEGREE SUNDAY. THEREFORE
PRECIP CHANCES DO NOT EXCEED 30 OR 40 PERCENT THROUGH THE LONG
WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THE FIRST HALF
OF TONIGHT FOR NORTHEAST OH AND NORTHWEST PA AS A WEAKENING
SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTH TOWARD LAKE ERIE. THUNDER NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION BUT DID NOT MENTION IT IN ANY OF THE TAF FORECASTS
TONIGHT. IFR CEILINGS ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN OHIO WILL LIKELY
SPREAD SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND IT MAY TAKE THROUGH
MID TO LATE MORNING TUESDAY FOR CEILINGS TO IMPROVE. ANOTHER ROUND
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE TROUGH
BEGINS TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE SHOWERS/STORMS ON TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR WEDNESDAY MORNING. NON VFR POSSIBLE
AGAIN ON SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERALL NO EXCESSIVELY STRONG WINDS EXPECTED ON THE LAKE THROUGH
SATURDAY...AND FOR A THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK THE GRADIENT WILL BE
WEAK AND THEREFORE THE WINDS LIGHTER. VARIABLE WINDS TO START THIS
EVENING WILL INCREASINGLY BECOME EASTERLY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES
THE LAKE FROM THE SOUTH. IT WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME DIFFUSE OVERNIGHT
AND BY TUESDAY THE MEAN FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWEST. A COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE LAKE TUESDAY EVENING FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHEAST WITH
THE HIGH STAYING NORTH OF LAKE ERIE. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE LAKE SO WINDS WILL BE MAINTAINED FROM THE
NORTHEAST UNTIL SATURDAY WHEN THAT LOW SHIFTS EAST OF THE OH/PA LINE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN/ADAMS
NEAR TERM...ADAMS/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...OUDEMAN



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