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000
FXUS61 KCLE 080538
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1238 AM EST SAT MAR 8 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT
AND ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO DROP ACROSS THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW...BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
FRONT OVER SOUTHERN MICHIGAN SLOWLY MOVING TOWARDS NW OHIO.
TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE LOW TO MID 30S...BUT
LOOKING AT SOUNDINGS THE TEMPERATURES RIGHT OFF THE DECK ARE INTO
THE 40S. THIS WILL SUPPORT ANY PRECIP STARTING OFF AS LIGHT
RAIN. WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES DROPPING NEAR FREEZING WHEN THE
PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO START WE COULD SEE SOME LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE TRANSITION TO SNOW WILL COME
LATER IN THE MORNING AFTER THE COLD AIR ADVECTION COOLS H850
TEMPS.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY BEGINS WITH A COLD FRONT NEAR A KTOL-KBUF LINE AS
MENTIONED ABOVE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP BUT THE POSSIBILITY
OF IT BEING MIXED IF IT DOES OCCUR. THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON THE FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE AREA. TOOK POPS UP TO LOW
CHANCE FOR THE DAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE ALONG AND NEAR THE FRONT.
THE MIX NORTH WILL LIKELY TURN TO JUST SNOW AS COOLER AIR ALOFT
MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH. EXPECT COOLER AIR AT THE SURFACE AS WELL
AS WINDS COME OFF THE MOSTLY FROZEN LAKE. ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF OF
THE AREA EXPECT TEMPS TO WARM A FEW MORE DEGREES TURNING ANY
PRECIP TO JUST RAIN MID DAY BEFORE TRANSITIONING BACK TO ALL SNOW
AS THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON COLD ADVECTION TAKES OVER POST FRONT. BY
EVENING EXPECT THE NRN COUNTIES TO HAVE DRIED OUT WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR SNOW REMAINING SOUTH. TEMPS SHOULD DROP TO
THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S BY SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPS MODERATE
SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS OHIO AND TO OUR SOUTH. NORTH
OF THE AXIS OF THE HIGH STRONG WARM ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES IN WARM FRONTOGENESIS. COULD SEE A FEW
SPRINKLES POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON THE DEPTH OF THE MOISTURE SO PUT
IN A SLIGHT CHANCE NORTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. TEMPS SHOULD
MODERATE INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE INTERACTION OF THREE SEPARATE SHORTWAVES PHASING TO CREATE A
DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN U.S. WILL
CAUSE UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION FOR TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT ON BIG PICTURE FEATURES WHILE THE SMALLER
SCALE FEATURES STILL VARY AS EXPECTED. A COLD FRONT WILL BE SINKING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY. THIS WILL BECOME
STATIONARY SOMEWHERE FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO CANADA TO CENTRAL OHIO AS
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS OK AND MOVES INTO THE OH/TN VALLEYS.
THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD WITH THIS SHOULD REACH INTO OUR AREA EVEN
IF IT IS BECAUSE THE OLD BOUNDARY ASSISTS. THE ECMWF IS STRONGEST
AND SLOWEST AND DEFINITELY GETS A GOOD AMOUNT OF QPF INTO THE AREA.
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES THURSDAY WITH
THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS. THEREFORE HAVE
PRECIP CHANCES TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE DRYING
THINGS OUT FOR THURSDAY/FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND ON THE
POSITION OF THAT INITIAL COLD FRONT AND THEN HOW MUCH WARM AIR CAN
BE DRAWN IN WITH THE OH/TN VALLEY LOW AND ITS TRACK. MILDER
TUESDAY...TURNING COLDER FOR MID WEEK...AND THEN BEGINNING THE
RECOVERY AGAIN FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS HAVE REACHED THE I-71 CORRIDOR. MID LEVEL CIGS WILL
OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY DAYBREAK WHICH SHOULD KEEP FOG FROM
BECOMING A PROBLEM. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIP MOVING
ACROSS THE THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
SATURDAY MORNING. GIVEN THE TEMP PROFILE IT IS TOUGH TO TELL IF
LIGHT RAIN OR LIGHT SNOW WILL FALL. WILL INCLUDE A MIX FOR A
COUPLE OF HOURS WHERE NEEDED. BETTER CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL COME
LATER IN THE DAY AS TEMPS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FALL BEHIND THE
FRONT. MOST OF THIS SNOW WILL ALSO BE LIGHT. IT SHOULD SPREAD FROM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. CIGS BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL DIP TO MVFR AND THEN REMAIN THAT WAY TILL THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD. MAINLY LIGHT SW FLOW EXPECTED TILL AFTER THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND THEN W TO NW AROUND 10 KNOTS IS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT FOR NE OH/NW
PA. NON VFR DEVELOPING ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND
REMAIN THAT WAY UNTIL A COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE
TUESDAY. THE DIRECTION WILL BE NORTH-NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY WITH THE
STRENGTH OF THE WIND DEPENDENT UPON THE STRENGTH OF LOW PRESSURE
FORECAST TO TRACK EAST ACROSS LOWER OHIO/TN VALLEYS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...SJAMISON
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...OUDEMAN