Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 261617 AAB
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1017 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FIRST PERIOD
GRIDS FOR ADAPTATION WITH OBSERVATIONS. OVERALL FORECAST IS NOT IN
TOO BAD OF SHAPE AND DID NOT REALLY SEE THE NEED TO MAKE CHANGES
FOR NOW.

&&

.MARINE...SINCE SEAS OFFSHORE WERE AT 8 FEET...EXTENDED THE SCA
UNTIL 4 PM. THIS BETTER MATCHES SURROUNDING OFFICES AS WELL. AM
EXPECTING SCA MAY EXPIRE BEFORE 4 PM...AND WILL EVALUATE THAT FOR
THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 551 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR 12Z TAFS.

AVIATION...SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET OF 35-40 KNOTS CONTINUES TO
BRING IN HIGHER MOISTURE. STRATUS DECK COVERS ALL BUT WEST OF A
LINE FROM HEBBRONVILLE TO COTULLA EARLY THIS MORNING. MVFR CIGS
ARE PREVALENT OVER THE COASTAL BEND INTO THE BRUSH COUNTRY WHILE
CIGS ARE FROM 4-5 KFT OVER THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS. ISOLATED
STREAMER SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE COASTAL PLAINS THIS
MORNING WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET OVER THE AREA. SOME PATCHY FOG
COULD OCCUR IN THE LAREDO WHERE WINDS ARE LIGHT. MOISTURE WILL
BE TRAPPED BENEATH A MID LEVEL INVERSION TODAY. EXPECT MVFR CIGS
WILL LINGER OVER THE COASTAL BEND INTO THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS
THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE LOW DECK SCATTERS OUT BY LATE AFTERNOON.
MOISTURE LAYER WILL BECOME MORE SHALLOW BY TONIGHT. SHOULD SEE
LOWER CIGS/IFR WITH FOG DEVELOPING AFTER 06Z OVER THE INLAND
COASTAL PLAINS. LIFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR ALI LATE IN
THE PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 433 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OF
35-40 KNOTS CONTINUES EARLY THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE
OVER NORTHWEST TEXAS. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL SLOWLY TRANSLATE TO THE
EAST INTO UPPER TEXAS COAST/EAST TEXAS BY THIS AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS INTO THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER WILL BE
PERSISTENT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS WILL SHIFT
EAST OF THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. MID LEVEL
LOW APPROACHING THE FOUR CORNERS REGION EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
KICK OUT TO THE NORTHEAST AND DAMPEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS LATE TONIGHT. SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL DIVE THROUGH THE GREAT
BASIN TO MAINTAIN THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
SATURDAY...WITH THE TROUGH AXIS MOVING INTO FAR WEST TEXAS BY 00Z
SUNDAY. A VERY STRONG UPPER JET AXIS WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHWEST OF THE REGION SATURDAY WITH MODELS SUGGESTING A WEAK
SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF MEXICO INTO THE REGION SATURDAY.
WEAKER SOUTHERLY FLOW OF 20-25 KNOTS WILL MAINTAIN A WEAKLY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT
SAGS INTO THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER
TO MID 50S ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
BEHIND FRONT. LIGHTER WINDS OUT WEST COULD LEAD TO FOG FORMING
LATER THIS MORNING. THREAT OF FOG SHOULD EXIST OVER THE COASTAL
BEND INTO THE BRUSH COUNTRY LATE TONIGHT.

MARINE...EXTENDED THE SCA FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS UNTIL 15Z TODAY
WITH SCEC CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE GULF WATERS THROUGH THE REST
OF TODAY. ISOLATED STREAMER SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN OVERNIGHT. THE NEXT FRONT WILL ARRIVE INTO THE
BAYS AND NEARSHORE WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOON SATURDAY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONT.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...HOWEVER MODELS DO
SHOW A SLIGHTLY FASTER PUSH OF RAIN OUT OF THE INLAND LOCATIONS.
INSTABILITY RESIDES BEST ACROSS THE WATERS WITH A GOOD CONVERGENCE
ZONE ALONG THE FRONT TO CONTINUE MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE NIGHT. INCREASING DOWNGLIDE ON SUNDAY WILL
TAPER RAIN CHANCES FURTHER BY THE EVENING...WITH POPS ENDING. HIGH
PRESSURE QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST WITH ONSHORE FLOW RESUMING MONDAY
NIGHT. ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL RETURN THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH
INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT TUESDAY DUE TO A WEAK COASTAL LOW SOUTH
OF THE REGION. MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING THE NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE
TUESDAY EVENING WITH A 1050 HIGH PUSHING IN BEHIND. NOT MUCH IN THE
WAY OF AVAILABLE INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER WITH A
PERSISTENT UPGLIDE IN WAKE OF THE FROPA...WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES
THROUGH THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST AND SOUTH. THIS STRONG
FRONT SHOULD ALSO ALLOW WINDS TO INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS FOR THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF WATERS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO DECREASE HEADING INTO THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK AS THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE MOVES NORTHEAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO 60S MONDAY...BUT COOL BACK DOWN INTO THE
50S BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    76  66  73  46  57  /  10  10  30  30  20
VICTORIA          74  64  71  43  55  /  20  20  50  30  20
LAREDO            77  59  70  47  60  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE             78  63  73  47  58  /  10  10  20  20  10
ROCKPORT          73  64  72  45  56  /  20  20  40  30  30
COTULLA           74  56  66  44  59  /  10  10  20  10  10
KINGSVILLE        79  65  74  47  57  /  10  10  20  30  20
NAVY CORPUS       73  66  71  46  56  /  10  10  30  30  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

GW/86...SHORT TERM





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