Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 232053
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
353 PM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Monday Night)...

We`re already seeing a decrease in moisture across the area.
Satellite derived PWAT analysis shows deepest moisture now along
the northern Gulf Coast with much of our area below 1.5 inches. As
evidence of this, NAS Kingsville has mixed out to a dewpoint of
64 this afternoon with temperature warming to 103 (as of 3pm)!
Will continue to see further drying overnight (though near surface
moisture will keep a humid feel to the air). Not thinking we`ll
see too much impact on tonight`s low temperatures, but do
anticipate a rather warm day on Monday. Have gone on the high side
of guidance (warmer than most all options), thinking we`ll be
well above 100 west (104-105), and in the mid and upper 90s east.
Expect heat indicies to still be just in the 105-109 range however
due to the drier air mixing down. Something to note, while above
normal, 850 temps are not excessive and will help to keep temps
from getting out of hand.

The drier air will keep pops minimal tonight, and despite the
upper level low tracking across the region, it should not have any
moisture to tap into. By tomorrow evening however, moisture will
begin a return to South Texas. Think that precip chances should
mainly hold off until the daytime Tuesday though.

A moderate south to southeasterly flow will be expected once
again tomorrow with gusty winds in the afternoon hours. A small
craft advisory remains in effect through this evening. It`s
possible this will need to be extended a couple of hours, but it`s
borderline at this point so will let evening shift make the
decision on that.

&&

.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Saturday)...

Hot and humid conditions will persist for much of the upcoming week.
Slightly deeper moisture returns to the area on Tuesday, which may
result in low chances of showers and storms. Low pops were retained
Wednesday and Thursday as daytime heating may trigger some isolated
convection. However, most locations will likely stay dry and the
best chance of showers and storms Tuesday through Thursday will lie
across the eastern half of the area. Drier air will then move into
the area on Friday. By next weekend, the upper level ridge axis
shifts back to the west. This will allow a cold front to sink
southward across the state, but not likely will reach South Texas.
For now, the forecast will remain dry for next weekend. Showers and
storms may fire along the boundary, but confidence at this time is
not that high convection will make it this far south. Regarding
temperatures through the week, highs will easily top 100 degrees
over the Brush Country and Rio Grande. Mid to upper 90s will be
common over the Coastal Plains into the Victoria Crossroads. The
heat index will be an issue with heat advisories possible for parts
of the area, likely beginning on Wednesday and continuing through
Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    77  97  78  96  77  /  10  10  10  20  10
Victoria          77  97  76  96  76  /  10  10  10  20  10
Laredo            78 105  79 101  79  /  10  10  10  10   0
Alice             75 101  76  99  75  /  10  10  10  20  10
Rockport          82  95  83  92  82  /  10  10  10  20  10
Cotulla           76 104  77 100  77  /  10  10  10  10   0
Kingsville        77 100  78  97  77  /  10  10  10  20  10
Navy Corpus       83  95  83  92  83  /  10  10  10  20  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening For the
     following zones: Bays and Waterways from Baffin Bay to Port
     Aransas...Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas
     out 20 NM.

&&

$$

PZ/83...SHORT TERM
TB/78...LONG TERM


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