Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KCRP 310250 AAB
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
950 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM EARLIER THIS
EVENING HAVE DISSIPATED. UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR
LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.
DID BUMP UP POPS TO 30 PERCENT ACROSS THE NORTH AS HIGH RES MODELS
SUGGEST SHOWERS/STORMS MAY IMPACT THE NORTHERN ZONES BEFORE 12Z.
ALSO...LIGHT WINDS PRIOR TO THE FRONT AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
BRUSH COUNTRY AND COASTAL PLAINS. UPDATED PRODUCTS OUT AND NO
ADDITIONAL CHANGES PLANNED ATTM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 618 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE 00Z TAFS.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BDRY DUE
TO LIGHT WINDS...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND DRIER CONDITIONS ALOFT. IN
ADDITION...THERE IS A CHC FOR CONVECTION...MAINLY AFTER 09Z...DUE
TO INCREASING CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONTAL BDRY. THE PATCHY
FOG AND/OR CONVECTION WILL LEAD TO BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR...POSSIBLY IFR...CONDITIONS TOWARD FRI MORNING. ONCE THE
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA...DRIER/VFR CONDITIONS WILL DVLP AND
SPREAD FROM NE TO SW WITH THE LRD AREA EXPECTED TO BE THE LAST TO
CLR OUT IN THE AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...MAIN CONCERN IN THE
SHORT TERM IS A FRONTAL PASSAGE SLATED TO MOVE THROUGH NEAR DAYBREAK
FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT ENVIRONMENT WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY RELATIVELY
LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES...AND MESOSCALE GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING
THE POSSIBILITY FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN THE DEPTH OF MOISTURE IN
THE LOWER LEVELS AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY...SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY OUT WEST WHERE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL BE THE STRONGEST. UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT IS NOT PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE IN THIS EVENT...WITH MUCH
OF TEXAS IN THE RIGHT FRONT QUADRANT OF THE POLAR JET AND LEFT REAR
QUADRANT OF A WEAKER SUBTROPICAL JET. THIS WILL BE MORE OF AN ISSUE
IN THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES...SO HAVE SHAPED MY POPS ACCORDINGLY. AS
FOR TEMPERATURES...SHOULD SEE HIGHS NEAR 80 TOMORROW AREAWIDE. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT. LOWS TOMORROW NIGHT SHOULD BE
A "TREAT" FOR THOSE WHO ENJOY COOLER CONDITIONS...WITH LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 50S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES AND POSSIBLE UPPER 40S
OVER THE NORTHERN BRUSH COUNTRY AND VICTORIA REGION.

MARINE (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...WEAK TO MODERATE NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL BECOME MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH WINDS DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION...AND REMAIN
ELEVATED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE BAYS AND NEARSHORE WATERS WILL
SEE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT BEFORE CONDITIONS DRY
OUT BEHIND THE FRONT.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...COOL CONDITIONS EXPECTED
AGAIN EARLY SUNDAY MORNING OWING TO DRY PROFILE YET WITH UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDS (TO LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING) SERVING AS CAVEAT (GFS
DETERMINISTIC.) DIVERGENCE BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH REGARD
TO MOVEMENT OF A STG UPPER DISTURBANCE PROGD TO ENTER THE WEST
COAST BY SUNDAY. CONCUR WITH THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN WHICH SUGGEST
THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE EWD ACRS THE SWRN CONUS AND PROVIDE
SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT TUESDAY/ WEDNESDAY OVER THE CWA/MSA.
INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW TO SCEC/SCA ANTICIPATED FOR SUNDAY-TUESDAY
PERIOD OVER THE MSA. GFS DETERMINISTIC PROGS PWAT VALUES TO
INCREASE TO ABOVE NORMAL BY MONDAY AFTN. INCREASING MSTR SHOULD
CONTRIBUTE TO ISOLD CONVECTION MONDAY. THE COMBINATION OF UPPER
FORCING/MSTR SHOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST SCT CONVECTION
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. WL REMOVE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FROM THE CWA/MSA
FROM WEST TO EAST SLOWER THAN SUGGESTED BY THE GFS DETERMINISTIC.
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    65  80  53  76  57  /  20  20   0   0  10
VICTORIA          61  79  48  73  47  /  20  10   0   0  10
LAREDO            68  80  56  79  58  /  20  30   0   0  10
ALICE             65  81  51  77  54  /  20  30   0   0  10
ROCKPORT          68  79  54  74  60  /  20  20   0   0  10
COTULLA           67  80  49  75  53  /  30  30   0   0  10
KINGSVILLE        64  82  52  77  54  /  20  30   0   0  10
NAVY CORPUS       70  79  60  75  62  /  20  20   0   0  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TB/78...SHORT TERM





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.