Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 192016
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
316 PM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday Night)...

Very isolated showers continue across the Coastal Bend this
afternoon as nearly 2.0 inch PWATs remains across the coastal
region (near 1.5 to 1.7 farther west toward the Brush Country).
Broad ridging and warm H85 temps near 20C have hindered much in
the way of thunderstorm development. Despite broad ridging, a weak
shortwave is expected to move in from the north tonight through
Wednesday. Height falls are not expected to be major, so little
change is expected in the weather. This shortwave, however, is
kicking up convection across the Big Bend region which, following
storm motion, is expected to continue to drift southeast through
the evening. Models do show increasing CIN through the evening
hours with the loss of heating which should diminish activity
enough before reaching South Texas. However, will continue to
monitor the situation.

PWATs will continue to range from 1.8 to 2.0 inches for
Wednesday, with the greatest moisture again across the Coastal
Plains and Gulf waters. Isolated showers and possible
thunderstorms will be once again possible for Wednesday, starting
off as streamer showers early in the morning across the Gulf
waters moving north across the Coastal Bend, then pushing farther
westward along the sea breeze.

Very little change with temperatures are expected again as not
much change remains in the overall pattern. Temperatures will
range in the low to mid 90s across the Coastal Plains to the mid
to upper 90s to even near 100 degrees across the Rio Grande
Plains during the afternoon. With the combination of the moist
atmosphere, afternoon heat index values will again range between
105 to 109 degrees during the afternoon for portions of the
southern Coastal Bend and the Brush Country. Isolated locations
may briefly reach 110 degrees during the afternoon.

Overnight lows in the mid to upper 70s can be expected along the
coast and Rio Grande, while farther inland, lows will dip into
the mid 70s.

Light fog with visibilities of 1 to 4 miles will be possible
again during the morning hours, especially from Alice to Victoria.

&&

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Wednesday)...

Fairly persistent forecast over the next several days. A weakness
in the upper level ridge will allow for an influx of tropical
moisture across the region. PWATS around 2" will allow for
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms throughout the
extended period. Greatest chances for rain will be on Thursday due
to enhanced convergence along the Coastal Bend and Victoria
Crossroads. Slightly drier air filters into the region this
weekend, but will still carry the slight chance of showers and
storms along the sea breeze. A surge of deep Gulf moisture pushes
into South Texas next week bringing back higher chances for rain.

Temperatures will be around average for this time of year. Max
afternoon heat index values will approach 105 degrees across the
southern Coastal Bend.


&&

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    77  93  77  92  77  /  20  20  20  40  30
Victoria          76  92  75  91  74  /  10  30  20  40  30
Laredo            78 100  78  98  78  /  10  10  10  20  10
Alice             75  98  75  96  75  /  10  10  10  40  20
Rockport          80  90  80  89  79  /  20  20  20  40  30
Cotulla           77 100  77  98  77  /  10  10  10  20  10
Kingsville        77  96  76  95  76  /  10  20  10  40  30
Navy Corpus       80  90  81  89  80  /  20  20  20  40  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

CB/85...SHORT TERM
TC/95...LONG TERM



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