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000
FXUS64 KCRP 252309 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
609 PM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013

.DISCUSSION...SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN AFTER
SUNSET...STARTING AT KCRP AND KALI BETWEEN 03Z-04Z...THEN AT KVCT
ABT 06Z...WITH MVFR CIGS AT KLRD BFR 12Z. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
DEVELOP AOA 16Z AREA-WIDE. CONCERNING THUNDER/SHRA IN TAFS...ONLY
HAVE THAT IN KVCT FOR NOW ENDING BY 03Z. THINK ANY OTHER
CONVECTION TONIGHT WILL BE AWAY FROM TERMINALS...AND ANY WHICH MAY
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WILL BE TOO ISOLATED. CONCERNING WINDS...
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL TAPER OFF TONIGHT...WITH INCREASING WINDS
WITH GUSTS AROUND 18Z...EXCEPT AT KLRD WHERE WINDS WILL BE SE WITH
GUSTS LIMITED IF ANY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 PM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013/

SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...ACTIVE AFTERNOON WITH A
WEAK PATTERN CONTINUES. GOOD CAPE...BUT MARGINAL LAPSE RATES AND
WEAK SHEAR...BUT CONTINUE TO HAVE STORMS DEVELOP...A FEW PRODUCING
BRIEF FUNNEL CLOUDS OR TORNADOES. FLOOD CONCERNS ARE DECREASING AS
STORMS ARE MOVING BETTER THAN EARLIER IN THE DAY...AND NOT
TRAINING.

INITIAL VORT MAX CURRENTLY INTO NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST
AREA BUT RUC GUIDANCE SHOWS ADDITIONAL VORT MAX COMING ACROSS
OVERNIGHT. HAVE INCREASE POPS TO 30 OVERNIGHT...BUT SORT OF A
HEDGE BET AT THIS POINT AS MESO MODELS ARENT SHOWING A WHOLE LOT.
IF WE GET CONVECTION TO RE FIRE WITH THIS VORT MAX COULD BECOME
ANOTHER MORE WIDE SPREAD EVENT OVERNIGHT. WILL KEEP ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR TOMORROW AS WEAK SHORTWAVES
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THINGS SHOULD
QUIET DOWN WITH PRECIP MOVING OUT OF THE AREA. COULD EVEN SEE SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS BY THE AFTERNOON. MILD MIN TEMPS AND WARM
HIGHS CONTINUE.

LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...DID NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES
TO THE EXTENDED PART OF THE FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD
IN FOR MONDAY WITH DRIER AIR ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL
REBOUND FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK WITH UPPER 90S OUT WEST TO
UPPER 80S OVER THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS. RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT
EASTWARD TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS NOW INDICATE UPPER TROUGH
MOVING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS WEDNESDAY AND INTO THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. MOISTURE DOES INCREASE BY WEDNESDAY OVER THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS BUT BELIEVE ATMOSPHERE MAY BE CAPPED...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH
POPS BELOW MENTIONABLE LEVELS. LEFT INHERITED LOW END POPS IN FOR
THURSDAY FOR THE TIME BEING...BUT CAPPING COULD BE AN ISSUE THIS DAY
AS WELL. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EXTENDED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    76  89  73  88  75  /  20  20  10  10  10
VICTORIA          73  89  71  88  73  /  20  20  10  10  10
LAREDO            76  93  76  97  75  /  20  20  10  10  10
ALICE             72  90  72  91  74  /  20  20  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          76  86  76  86  76  /  20  20  10  10  10
COTULLA           72  92  72  93  73  /  20  20  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        74  90  73  90  75  /  20  20  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       76  85  76  86  77  /  20  20  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

GW/86...AVIATION