Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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000
FXUS64 KCRP 251002
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
402 AM CST Sat Nov 25 2017

.SHORT TERM (Today through Sunday)...

Patchy early morning fog will give way to another sunny day with
even warmer temperatures. Onshore flow will help to modify the
airmass with dewpoints climbing into the low-60s across the east.
Across the west daytime heating and a pre-frontal trough, backing
winds all the way around to the northwest, will allow for dewpoints
to mix out into the mid/upper-40s, though winds will remain on the
lighter side so fire weather concerns do not present themselves
today.

Aloft, an impulse embedded within the northwest flow, traverses the
region later this evening helping to send a weak and decaying cold
front towards South Texas. Ahead of the boundary and before winds
veer to the northeast, we could see another round of patchy fog
across the interior of the region. Enough surface moisture
convergence and somewhat better upper-level dynamics may help to
produce isolated to scattered showers across the Gulf waters and
ultimately the southern third of South Texas through the remainder
of Sunday. Moisture depth is mostly confined to the lowest 10kft of
the column so not expecting deeper convection, more of a light rain.

Temperatures cool a bit behind the front but given the lack of
appreciable cold air advection in the low-levels, we are still
looking at above average daytime highs.

&&

.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Friday)...

A warming trend will develop early next week.  Onshore flow will
strengthen Monday into Tuesday with low pressure over the Central
Plains.  Models beginning to show a little more consensus during the
mid week, with the ECMWF coming more in agreement with the GFS
bringing a weaker frontal boundary into the region on Tuesday night
into Wednesday.  However, the ECMWF still appears a bit less
aggressive, washing out the boundary in our region. At this time have
maintained the slight chance of showers for Tuesday night and
Wednesday, and have kept more of a model blend during the mid week.
Anticipate temperatures on Wednesday to be only slightly cooler than
Tuesday. Discrepancies between model solutions will continue into
the late week.  An upper level trough will move down from the
Rockies, bringing an associated cold front through South Texas.
However, the GFS maintains a more swift solution, bringing the front
down more strongly on Thursday, while the ECMWF holds off on fropa
until Thursday night/Friday.  Will continue to monitor trends in
which way the solutions are trending before better confidence can be
reached in the extended forecast as a lot of waffling continues with
the cold fronts moving through South Texas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    84  61  78  57  78  /   0  20  10   0   0
Victoria          82  56  78  51  77  /   0  10   0   0   0
Laredo            83  57  76  56  79  /   0  10  20   0   0
Alice             86  58  80  54  80  /   0  10  10   0   0
Rockport          77  62  75  59  76  /   0  20  10   0   0
Cotulla           82  55  77  52  79  /   0  10   0   0   0
Kingsville        87  60  80  55  80  /   0  10  20   0   0
Navy Corpus       80  65  76  62  78  /   0  20  20   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

GH/77...SHORT TERM
LB/84...LONG TERM


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