Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 311127
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
627 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.DISCUSSION...Updated for 12z aviation.

&&

.AVIATION...Active weather day expected with the potential for a
couple rounds of showers and thunderstorms. Confidence in the
coverage and timing of the convection is not high due to the very
changeable pattern. Best moisture remains west and thus best rain
chances remain there. However have some chance for rain at all TAF
sites through this afternoon. Think there will be a lull in
activity this evening into tonight for eastern sites before next
wave approaches. VFR to occasionally MVFR conditions can be
expected.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 431 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016/

SHORT TERM (Today through Wednesday)...A complex forecast in the
short term with several upper level short waves forecast to affect
the region. The first wave is currently approaching the Rio Grande
with some convection noted west and north of South Texas at this
time. With abundant deep moisture (Satellite estimated PWAT around
2 inches) across the Rio Grande Plains expect additional shower
development as the upper level energy progresses eastward. RAP
model hinting at weak low level cyclogenesis along the Rio Grande
into Deep South Texas. This could pull more of the rain activity
south, but other models track showers and storms across South
Texas, and yet others have a more northerly track. Will stick with
a mainly easterly track for now, but would expect some decrease in
expanse of rain as moisture depth somewhat lower in the east. One
of the main challenges in this forecast period is whether the
atmosphere will have time to "reload" for further rounds of
convection. In the 36 hour short term period have 3 main waves in
succession...all around 12 hours apart. With expected cloud cover
just not confident that we wont become stable and limit
thunderstorm activity with one of two of those waves. The moisture
is certainly there...and expected to continue to increase, so
can`t discount the possibilities for several rounds of
thunderstorms. Second round would be moving into western portions
of CWA this evening/tonight with third wave during the day on
Wednesday. Have rainfall totals between 1 and 2 inches west of a
line from Alice to Beevile.

Have mainly persistence forecast temperatures with highs in the
lower 90s west to the mid and upper 80s east.

LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)...Deterministic output
continues to predict a similar upper pattern involving the eastward
trek of an upper upper disturbance across the NRN Plains/Great Lakes
Wednesday Night/Thursday (contributing to a frontal boundary into
Central TX Thursday) and an upper disturbance/low meandering over
the CWA/MSA Thursday-Saturday. GFS deterministic continues to
predict high PWAT values and soundings consistent with efficient
rainfall production. The combination of copious moisture/frontal
boundary/upper forcing will contribute to scattered/numerous
convection over the CWA/MSA Wednesday Night through Friday.
Efficient rainfall production will contribute to heavy rainfall
mainly Thursday and Thursday Night. At least 2-3 inches of rainfall
anticipated Wednesday Night-Friday per WPC. Although the frontal
boundary may stall north of the CWA...an MCS to the north near the
front could provide a mesoscale boundary that could enter the CWA
and provide a focus for subsequent/persistent convection and
widespread heavy rainfall with rainfall amounts possibly reaching
flooding flash thresholds. Thus...a Flash Flood Watch may be needed
for the Wednesday Night through Thursday Night period. Saturday-
Monday...an increasing in synoptic scale subsidence yet lingering
moisture suggest isolated/scattered convection.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    76  86  74  84  72  /  30  40  50  70  60
Victoria          73  86  72  83  70  /  20  50  60  70  70
Laredo            75  91  72  86  70  /  50  60  60  60  50
Alice             74  88  72  85  70  /  30  50  50  70  60
Rockport          78  85  76  82  74  /  20  40  50  70  60
Cotulla           73  90  70  83  68  /  50  60  70  70  50
Kingsville        75  88  73  85  71  /  30  50  50  70  60
Navy Corpus       77  85  76  82  75  /  20  40  50  60  60

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

PZ/83...AVIATION



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