Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 242332
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
532 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2018

.DISCUSSION...

Updated for 00Z aviation forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...

Very difficult TAF forecast tonight with a cold front anticipated
to move into the region, but stall somewhere in the vicinity of
both ALI and VCT site through Sunday morning and into the
afternoon. CIGs will become MVFR for all sites regardless of
frontal position, with the potential for some IFR on the eastern
side of the front. Visbys are questionable and will leave at just
MVFR at this time, but could approach low end MVFR late in the
night. Will also have a potential for thunder at most sites
overnight and again Sunday afternoon for CRP. LRD could see a few
showers through the night, but expect TSRA activity to remain
east of here. Frontal boundary should push through to the coast by
around 00Z Monday. Wind forecast is best guess with current
guidance, but with the stalled boundary, confidence is low,
especially at VCT/ALI.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 347 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2018/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Sunday night)...

Concur with the deterministic GFS/NAM/ECMWF which depict an upper
disturbance to lift across the Plains/Midwest region tonight,
while another system moves across the Four Corners Region/SRN
Rockies tonight, then across the SRN Plains Sunday and Sunday
night. MSAS depicts a frontal boundary across CNTRL TX. Concur
with the deterministic NAM/GFS which moves the front into the CWA
yet stalls it NE-SW across the ERN/SRN CWA Sunday afternoon, when
considering the foregoing upper pattern. NAM deterministic depict
above normal PWAT values over the CWA in advance of the front. The
combination of copious moisture/significant CAPE/limited Q-vector
convergence and sfc convergence associated with the approaching
frontal boundary should generate at least scattered
showers/isolated thunderstorms tonight over the CWA/MSA. An
increase in coverage and intensity of activity expected Sunday
owing to the quasi-stationary frontal boundary, and increasing
upper forcing associated with an upper jet streak. SPC places much
of the ERN CWA in a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms
Sunday. At least strong storms seem likely Sunday afternoon given
NAM deterministic 0-6km vertical shear and supercell composite
parameter values along and in advance of the front. Concur with
the NAM/GFS that the front will move offshore Sunday night, which
is consistent with the movement of the foregoing second upper
disturbance that is predicted to move across the SRN Plains.

MARINE (Tonight through Sunday night)...

Anticipate that wind will fall below SCA areawide by 00z, when
the current SCA expires for the SRN Bays/Nearshore and Offshore
Waters. Expect patchy to areas of fog to develop again over the
bays and nearshore coastal waters tonight through Sunday morning.
Dense sea fog possible tonight when considering SREF output, yet
not highly confident in areas/widespread dense sea fog.


LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...

Extended period begins in the wake of a frontal passage with cool
but not cold temperatures and northerly winds. High pressure
moves quickly eastward allowing setting up return flow once again,
with mild temperatures and increasing moisture Tue/Wed. Rain
chances Tuesday and Wednesday look to be confined to the north and
northeast parts of the Coastal Bend, and even those chances are
small given better dynamics across central and east Texas. A weak
front moves through late Wednesday, with drier and slightly cooler
weather moving in for the rest of the week.

Temperatures will ride the roller coaster between frontal passages
and return flow, with Wednesday being the warmest day of the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    63  70  57  72  63  /  60  70  20  10  20
Victoria          60  66  52  74  57  /  60  70  20  10  20
Laredo            60  70  52  73  62  /  30  30  10  10  30
Alice             63  70  54  74  62  /  50  60  10  10  30
Rockport          63  68  56  72  63  /  70  70  20  10  20
Cotulla           56  69  48  76  58  /  10  20   0   0  30
Kingsville        64  71  56  72  62  /  50  60  20  10  30
Navy Corpus       64  69  58  71  64  /  60  70  20  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening For the
     following zones: Bays and Waterways from Baffin Bay to Port
     Aransas...Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas
     out 20 NM...Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas from 20
     to 60 NM...Waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship
     Channel from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

PZ/83...AVIATION


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