Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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000
FXUS64 KCRP 301525
AFDCRP
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1025 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...INTRODUCED ISOLATED CONVECTION TO THE MSA BEFORE
18Z TODAY OWING TO CURRENT ACTIVITY (RADAR)/PSN OF THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS (GFS DETERMINISTIC)/LOW CIN AND HIGH CAPE (LAPS
ANALYSES.) ALSO INTRODUCED ISOLATED ACTIVITY TO THE SRN CWA BEFORE
18Z TODAY OWING IN PART TO DECREASING CIN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 12Z TAF CYCLE.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING ALL BUT KALI WHERE FOG
WILL PERSIST UNTIL MIDMORNING BEFORE MIXING OUT. SCATTERED
CONVECTION EXPECTED ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND FROM LATE MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. CHANCES ALL BUT KVCT TOO
LOW FOR EVEN PROB MENTION. WINDS TO BECOME LVAR AFTER SUNSET AS
WEAK BOUNDARY DRIFTS INTO THE REGION. FOG FORMATION POSSIBLE AT
KALI/KVCT AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 418 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS
ON POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION INCLUDING HEAVY RAINFALL. MCS
CURRENTLY NEAR THE EDWARDS PLATEAU IS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE
COASTAL BEND DIRECTLY...BUT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THIS
CONVECTION MAY REACH THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING. THAT BOUNDARY
COMBINED WITH A POSSIBLE SEABREEZE LOOKS TO BE A FOCUS FOR
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ACTIVITY LOOKS TO CONTINUE
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS UPPER SUPPORT ARRIVES. 00Z KCRP SOUNDING
SHOWS MARGINAL MOISTURE LEVELS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL...BUT WITH
CONTINUED SOIL SUPERSATURATION ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL MAY
TRIGGER FLASH FLOODING. AS A RESULT WILL CONTINUE FFA AS
PREVIOUSLY ISSUED FROM 18Z TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. RAIN
CHANCES BEGIN TO DIMINISH ON SUNDAY AS THE LEFTOVER BOUNDARY
BEGINS TO DECAY AND UPPER SUPPORT SHIFTS EASTWARD.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...BY SUNDAY NIGHT...MODELS
PROG PRECIP TO TAPER OFF FROM W TO E AS UPPER LONG WAVE TROUGH
SHIFTS E OF THE AREA AND RIDGING BEGINS TO TAKE HOLD. MODELS KEEP
SOME PRECIP IN THE FCST THRU MONDAY AS WEAK ILL-DEFINED BDRY LIFTS N
OR WASHES OUT. THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...MODELS PROG A
PERSTENT RIDGE OVER MEX WHICH KEEPS A DEEP NLY FLOW ACROSS TX. THE
RIDGE WILL BRING DRIER MID/UPPER LVLS ACROSS S TX...HOWEVER
SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BE ENOUGH FOR ISOLD CONVECTION
ALONG AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE PERIODICALLY THROUGH THE WEEK.
OTHERWISE...MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT/MON DUE TO THE WEAK FRONTAL BDRY...THEN
GRADUAL WARMING TREND THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A LIGHT NELY FLOW
IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT/MON THEN BECOMING A WEAK ONSHORE FLOW BY
TUE AND STRENGHTENING SLIGHTLY TO WEAK TO MOD BY MID WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    86  73  85  71  87  /  20  50  40  20  20
VICTORIA          86  70  84  67  86  /  40  60  40  20  20
LAREDO            91  72  89  71  91  /  20  40  40  10  10
ALICE             89  72  86  69  89  /  20  50  40  20  20
ROCKPORT          84  73  85  73  85  /  20  50  40  20  20
COTULLA           89  71  85  69  89  /  40  50  40  10  10
KINGSVILLE        88  72  85  70  88  /  20  50  40  20  20
NAVY CORPUS       84  74  84  75  86  /  20  40  40  20  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...BEE...CALHOUN...DUVAL...GOLIAD...JIM
     WELLS...KLEBERG...LA SALLE...LIVE OAK...MCMULLEN...NUECES...
     REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO...VICTORIA...WEBB.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

WC/87...SHORT TERM




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