Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
FXUS64 KCRP 221524 AAB
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
924 AM CST Wed Feb 22 2017
Based on yesterday`s high temperatures and current observations,
have decided to increase high temperatures over the coastal areas,
as westerly downslope winds should help warm things up enough at
least to yesterday`s temperatures. Could be even warmer if ECMWF
is correct on 850mb temperatures which show 20C or more near/west
of Highway 281. Otherwise, very quiet day.
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 546 AM CST Wed Feb 22 2017/
Updated for 12z aviation.
VFR conditions will prevail through most, if not all, the taf
period. Some guidance suggests fog may develop very late in the
forecast, but confidence is not high enough to mention yet. Light
winds this morning will eventually become more southerly and
southeasterly by the afternoon.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 354 AM CST Wed Feb 22 2017/
SHORT TERM (Today through Thursday)...
Mostly quiet weather is expected across South Texas during the
short term. Upper level ridge will build over the region today and
coupled with dry air will result in very warm temperatures. Highs
should be able to climb into the lower/middle 90s over the Rio
Grande and Brush Country to mid/upper 80s near Victoria. Sfc high
pressure will move off the east later today with onshore flow
resuming by this evening. A slight increase in moisture may result
in some patchy fog tonight across the eastern Brush Country,
Coastal Plains, and Victoria Crossroads. Overnight lows will be in
the 50s inland with lower/mid 60s along the immediate coast.
Even warmer temperatures are expected on Thursday with temps
nearing 100 degrees at Laredo and near 90 at Corpus Christi.
LONG TERM (Thursday Night through Tuesday)...
The next cold front moves into Central Texas by Thursday night and
progresses southward through South Texas on Friday. The front will
serve mainly as a wind shift for the region as moisture will still
be very limited resulting in no expected precipitation. Will also
not see much of a temperature drop initially with this front with
highs Friday remaining in the mid and upper 80s. A secondary
boundary will move in on Saturday with slightly cooler, though still
above normal, temperatures. A substantial onshore flow will develop
Saturday night into Sunday and bring an increase in low level
moisture levels. A couple of short waves will pass across Texas
early in the week, but with moisture limited to just the lowest
levels, rain chances remain small...have just slight chance pops,
and mainly just in the northeast.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi 89 57 90 63 86 / 0 0 0 0 0
Victoria 87 55 86 61 84 / 0 0 0 10 10
Laredo 96 58 99 61 89 / 0 0 0 0 0
Alice 93 54 96 61 89 / 0 0 0 0 0
Rockport 84 61 81 65 81 / 0 0 0 10 10
Cotulla 94 53 98 56 88 / 0 0 0 0 0
Kingsville 92 54 96 62 89 / 0 0 0 0 0
Navy Corpus 85 63 82 65 81 / 0 0 0 0 0