Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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777
FXUS64 KCRP 301714
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1214 PM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017

.DISCUSSION...

See aviation and marine discussions below for the 18Z TAF and
Coastal Waters updates.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period across all S TX TAF
sites. Sfc winds will continue to decrease this afternoon as high
pressure settles across the region. The ctr of the high is
forecast to move east across S TX this afternoon, which will lead
to a generally variable wind direction. As the high shifts east, a
southerly wind will develop across the area through tonight.

&&

.MARINE...

Winds across the offshore waters currently remain around 20 knots
with seas running 7 feet. Therefore, extended the Small Craft
Advisory for the waters 20-60NM offshore until 4 PM CDT. Winds
closer to the shore and over the bays are below advisory levels
and should be below caution by early to mid afternoon.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 857 AM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017/

DISCUSSION...

Upper level system will continue to shift east which will continue
to bring drier air across S TX. The 12Z CRP sounding showed a
fairly dry airmass in place except for a layer of moisture in the
mid/upper levels. The mid/upper level moisture/clouds will exit
the area as the upper system exits to the east. Sfc high pressure
will settle across S TX through the afternoon leading to weakening
winds. Will likely allow the Small Craft Advisory to expire at 10
am for the southern bays and most likely for the coastal waters by
noon unless winds are slower to diminish over the open waters.
Overall, forecast looks on track with no major changes at this
time.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 602 AM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017/

DISCUSSION...Update for 12z Aviation.

AVIATION...VFR next 24 hrs across all S TX aerodromes. Dry
airmass in wake of cold front that pushed through overnight will
result in nil low level clouds. Breezy NNWrly sfc winds this mrng
becmg significantly weaker this afternoon. Srly LLJ of 35 to 35
kts prog to dvlp late tonight across KLRD where breezy Srly sfc
winds may then occur.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 345 AM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017/

SHORT TERM (Today through Friday)...

A cold front is currently pushing off the Middle Texas Coast as of
writing with NW surface winds developing in its wake. Some mid
and upper level cloudiness /associated with an approaching H5
trough axis and 105kt H25 jet currently overhead/ are expected to
persist through much of the morning with clearing skies this
afternoon as the upper level jet shifts east and the H5 trough
axis pushes through. Breezy conditions this morning will quickly
wane through the day as surface high pressure builds into the
region. Continued low humidity and cooler temps than Wed /still in
the 80s this afternoon across many areas/ should make today feel
rather nice.

Surface high pressure quickly shifts east tonight with southerly
flow redeveloping across the region. A 30 to 35 kt southerly LLJ
is prog to develop after midnight across the W Brush Country and
along the Rio Grande which should lead to breezy conditions for
these areas overnight. Farther east...weaker wind fields and
clear skies should allow for many inland areas across the Coastal
Plains to fall into the mid/upper 50s for min temps.

WAA strengthens Friday as the next storm system digs into the SW
CONUS and as surface pressures lower across Texas. Breezy to
windy conditions are expected during the day along with
significantly warmer temps. H85 temps are prog to increase to 19
to 20 C across the Coastal Plains to 20 to 22 C across the Brush
Country...translating to afternoon highs in the 80s to low 90s.
Sunny skies will continue with very limited moisture depth.

LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...

The deterministic ECMWF/GFS continue to predict the upper
disturbance to approach Texas Saturday...move across the region
Saturday night/Sunday...then move east of the CWA/MSA by early
Monday. Increasing onshore flow with at least SCEC conditions
expected over the MSA Friday night through early Sunday. Increasing
upper forcing associated with this system expected over the CWA/MSA
Saturday with the bulk of the dynamics Sunday. GFS deterministic
increase PWAT values to above normal Saturday/Sunday mainly over the
ERN CWA. Expect the combination of moisture/upper forcing to
contribute to isolated/scattered convection Saturday and
scattered/numerous convection Sunday. Anticipate that some storms
will at least become strong given GFS deterministic prediction of
very high CAPE values during the afternoon hours Saturday/Sunday
(SPC has issued a Marginal Risk of Severe for the NRN CWA for
Saturday.) Increasing subsidence/drying anticipated for Sunday
night/Monday as the upper system moves sufficiently east (GFS
ensemble mean.)

MARINE...A cold front is currently pushing off the Middle Texas
Coast. A period of strong N/NW flow may develop this morning
across nearly all marine areas. The strong flow should rapidly
weaken by midday /if not earlier/ as high pressure builds into the
area. Small Craft Advisories are in effect for most areas this
morning. S/SE flow returns Friday with the strongest flow expected
across Bay/Waterways from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas where
additional Small Craft Advisories may be required for the mid/late
afternoon hours on Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    80  59  87  70  84  /   0   0   0  10  20
Victoria          79  56  87  67  82  /   0   0   0  10  30
Laredo            85  63  95  69  94  /   0   0   0  10  10
Alice             83  55  92  68  90  /   0   0   0  10  20
Rockport          80  63  86  72  81  /   0   0   0  10  20
Cotulla           83  59  95  66  91  /   0   0   0  10  20
Kingsville        84  56  92  69  89  /   0   0   0  10  10
Navy Corpus       77  65  85  72  81  /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon For the
     following zones: Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas
     from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda
     Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

TE/81...AVIATION/MARINE



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