Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 270024
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
724 PM EST FRI DEC 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP FAIR WEATHER OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. A RELATIVELY WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE SHOWERS WILL BECOME
MIXED WITH A LITTLE SNOW ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS SUNDAY
MORNING. COLDER AND DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE
AREA NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING BACK TO SEASONAL
NORMALS...WHICH WILL FEEL QUITE COLD CONSIDERING HOW WARM IT HAS
BEEN RECENTLY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
LOOK FOR A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT.
THE MAIN EFFECT OF THE CLOUDS /WITH LIGHT SFC WIND/ WILL BE TO
TRIM THE TEMP DROP /ESP ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE/.
SKIES WILL STAY MAINLY CLEAR ACROSS THE EAST UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE EAST EARLY ON WILL ALLOW FOR
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. HOWEVER...EVEN WITH THE LONG NIGHTS AND
NEARLY CALM WIND...TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO FALL MUCH BELOW
FREEZING IN SOME PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
A SW BREEZE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AS THE HIGH
RECEDES AND THE FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE OPERATIONAL
GFS/NAM BOTH SHOW LIGHT PRECIP TRYING TO SNEAK INTO MY NWRN ZONES
BEFORE THE DAY IS OVER...BUT THEIR ENSEMBLES REMAIN DRY AS DOES
THE ECMWF...SO I OPTED FOR THE DRY FORECAST.

SKIES WILL SLOWLY CLOUD UP IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT IT SHOULD STILL
BE AN OVERALL VERY FINE EARLY WINTER DAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID 40S TO MID 50S...SOME 10 DEG OR MORE ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...BEFORE SINKING SOUTH OF THE CWA LATE SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY.
INCREASING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...BEFORE COLDER AIR ADVECTS IN BEHIND THE FRONT.
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES SUN NIGHT AS SOME GUIDANCE SHOWS A WEAK S
STREAM WAVE RIDING ALONG THE FRONT WHICH COULD BRING A SHORT
PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION TO THE SE ZONES SUN NIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY. WITH COOLING 850 TEMPS...A MIX OF R/S IS POSSIBLE IF THIS
WAVE DOES INDEED DEVELOP AND TRACK FAR ENOUGH NORTH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTY BY MIDWEEK
AND SLOWLY DRIFT OFF THE EAST COAST BY THE END OF THE
WORKWEEK...BRINGING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF FAIR WEATHER TO THE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...WAVES OF COLDER AIR DIVING DOWN FROM THE
NORTH WILL HELP TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NORMAL FOR THE LAST WEEK
OF DECEMBER.

GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A MORE ORGANIZED WEATHER SYSTEM DEVELOPING BY
NEXT WEEKEND...HOWEVER THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TRACK GIVEN THAT THIS SYSTEM IS STILL OVER A WEEK OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF
TO OUR SOUTH. IT`S POSSIBLE SOME LOW CLOUDS COULD FORM LATER
TONIGHT OVER THE NWRN MOUNTAINS...BUT THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE
OUTCOME AT THIS TIME SO IT WAS LEFT OUT OF THE BRADFORD TAF.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR REDUCED CONDITIONS WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AS A NEW FRONTAL SYSTEM SAGS SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA.

OUTLOOK...

SAT NITE-SUN...MVFR/IFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.

MON-WED...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT/LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...ROSS/HAGNER
AVIATION...GARTNER


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