Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 032305
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
705 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE JUST SOUTH OF THE STATE LATER TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR
LATER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. DRIER WEATHER CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK BEFORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
EARLY EVENING VIS LOOP SHOWS THICKENING CLOUDS OVERSPREADING
CENTRAL PA IN REGION OF WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE. REGIONAL RADAR AT 22Z SHOWING SHOWERS ENTERING
SOUTHWEST PA AT NOSE OF SOUTHERLY LL JET. NEAR TERM MDL DATA AND
RADAR TRENDS SUPPORT RAISING POPS TO NR 100 PCT BY LATE EVENING
FROM CLEARFIELD SOUTH THRU THE LAURELS AND SC MTNS...AS MUCH
HIGHER PWATS SURGE NORTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN PA IN ADVANCE OF
SHORTWAVE.

MAIN FCST CONCERN TONIGHT IS POTENTIAL OF LOCALIZED FLOODING
ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU...WHERE MDLS PLACE THE HIGHEST PWATS
ALONG AXIS OF INVERTED SFC TROUGH. CONVECTION-ALLOWING MDLS
INDICATE THIS POTENTIAL OF EMBEDDED TSRA AND LOCALLY HVY RAINFALL
WITH SPOT AMTS IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES. GIVEN THE WET GROUND...WILL
ADD MENTION OF POSSIBLE FLOODING ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES IN
THE HWO AND MONITOR CLOSELY FOR POSSIBLE FFA. MDL BLENDED COUNTY-WIDE
AVERAGE RAINFALL SHOULD RANGE FROM ARND 0.75 INCHES ACROSS THE
ALLEGHENIES...TO ARND 0.25 INCHES ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY.
BLEND OF SREF/GEFS OUTPUT SUPPORTS OVERNIGHT POPS RANGING FROM NR
100 PCT ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU...TO ARND 70 PCT EAST OF THE
SUSQ RIVER.

OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE TYPICAL FOR EARLY JULY...RANGING FROM THE UPPER
50S N MTNS TO MID 60S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
SHORT RANGE MODEL CONSENSUS TIMING OF THE SURFACE LOW HAS IT
MOVING OFF THE NJ COAST BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON SATURDAY. WHILE
THIS BODES WELL FOR THE RAIN TO TAPER OFF AND CONDITIONS TO
IMPROVE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY...A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST SUGGESTS THAT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
MAY BE HARD TO SCOUR OUT...KEEPING US MAINLY CLOUDY AND COOL.

HAVE DOWNPLAYED THE CHANCES FOR THUNDER OVER MOST OF CENTRAL PA.
HOWEVER...MARGINAL MODEL INSTABILITY ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES
IMPLIES THE CHC OF THUNDER ACROSS THE W MTNS.

AT THIS TIME WE ARE EXPECTING THE RAIN TO TAPER TO ISOLATED SHOWERS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...LEADING TO MAINLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
EVENING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES AND FIREWORKS DISPLAYS.

HIGHS ON THE 4TH WILL BE COOL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR. UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S WILL AVERAGE SOME 5-10 DEG COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK TO OUR EAST BY SAT NIGHT...WITH FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLING TO OUR SOUTH. THAT WILL KEEP JUST VERY LOW POPS
ACROSS SOUTHERN TIER SUN INTO SUN NIGHT. TEMPS ACROSS THE SOUTH
WILL BE NEAR NORMALS WITH SOME CLOUD COVER AROUND...WHILE MORE SUN
IN THE NORTH WILL ALLOW MAXS TO PEAK A BIT ABOVE NORMAL.

RIDGE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL GRADUALLY CEDE TO A MEAN UPPER
TROUGH CENTERED WEST OF PA FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK...RESULTING IN
REGULAR OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN. ECENS/GEFS INDICATE THE BEST CHC
FOR RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE TUE NIGHT INTO WED.

DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SCT CONVECTION RETURNS MON-TUE AS WEAK RETURN
FLOW KICKS IN. HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE AND OPPORTUNITY FOR
MEANINGFUL RAINFALL SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL APPROACH OF COLD FRONT
AND POSITIVE PWAT ANOMALIES WED. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
EARLY THIS WEEK.

LATE WEEK WILL FEATURE WESTERLY FLOW WITH TOUGH TO TIME SHORTWAVES
SLIDING ACROSS KEEPING MENTION OF RAIN CHANCES ONGOING. TEMPS SLIP
BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO 21Z TAFS.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

ALL TERMINALS ARE VFR AS OF ID DAY AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING BEFORE THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER BRINGS
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND REDUCED CONDITIONS LATER THIS EVENING INTO AT
LEAST EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE RAIN WILL TAPER TO JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS BY LATER
SATURDAY...BUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO HANG TOUGH
KEEPING CEILINGS MVFR OR LOWER INTO SUNDAY BEFORE IMPROVEMENT
BEGINS TO DEVELOP.

OUTLOOK...

SUN...BECOMING VFR. NO SIG WX.

MON-TUE...AREAS OF MVFR WITH SHOWERS ISOLATED THUNDER. MAINLY
SOUTHERN TERMINALS.

WED...MAINLY VFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...LA CORTE/MARTIN



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