Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 232343
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
743 PM EDT SAT JUL 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Pennsylvania will be on the northern edge of the subtropical
ridge into next week. A series of weakening cold fronts will bring
the mention of isolated mainly afternoon or evening showers or
thunderstorms, but most of the time it will be fair, very warm
and humid but rain free.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
As of 645 PM, storms are now south of PA. Activity near PIT will
likely just miss our area.

Updated the grids. New zones will go out at 715 PM.

Earlier discussion below.

Directional shear and high DCAPE has resulted in isolated severe
storms just south and east of Harrisburg this aft. Updated grids
and zones sent. VILs of 70 plus, resulted in wind damage, and
large hail. Strong west to southwest wind at THV, and a south wind
at LNS, acted on high dewpoints to quickly fire storms betweeen 4
and 5 PM. Expect activity to weaken here shortly, given lower sun
angle, and warm temperatures aloft. Temperatures topped out in the
mid to upper 90s in spots today.

Previous discussion below.

A weak cold front pretty much bisects the state east to west with
lower dewpoints from about State College northward. Models show
this slightly drier air settling south through late day before the
front pretty much becomes indistinguishable.

I still have the smallest of chances for a pop up storm along the
Pa-Md border but the mid levels are still quite warm so confidence
is low. Just another hot dry day in a recent string of hot dry
days.

Weak high pressure will settle over the area overnight. Other than
another night of patchy late night fog, it will be fair and mild
with lows mainly in the 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
Sunday will feature abundant sunshine for most of the day...along
with very warm to hot temps. 850 mb temps will be very similar to
today`s readings leading to highs once again well up into the 80s
to low/mid 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Big story in the extended fcst is the expected heat wave lasting
into early in the upcoming week, as the axis of the subtropical
ridge briefly shifts from the plains to the northeast conus.
Anomalous upper lvl ridging building over PA should bring hot and
mainly dry wx this weekend, as warm temps aloft suppress
convection. Next chance of shra/tsra for most of the area comes
Monday ahead of shortwave working across the Great Lakes. However,
any rainfall Monday is likely to do little to stem the dry pattern
we have been in.

Heat indices around 100F appear possible by Monday across the
Susq Valley, as higher dewpoints are advected into the area ahead
of potential convection. Overnight lows are also a concern as the
area doesn`t cool off at night through the weekend with Southern
PA lows in the 70s with highest readings Monday morning. Some
modest cooling appears likely by Tue/Wed of next week behind weak
cold front. However, temps still likely to remain somewhat abv
normal within a generally zonal flow.

Midweek weather looks dry again, with just low pops for isolated
tstms. Fri looks to be the next higher chance for tstm impacts
areawide as another cool front progged to move through.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Widespread VFR conditions across the region this evening. Expect
some fog development over western and central airfields overnight.
Eastern airfields should remain vfr overnight.

A few more hours of gusty west winds will diminish rapidly around
or shortly after sunset.

Sunday shaping up to be a VFR day...with a nearly cloudless sky
expected. Winds should be lighter with the surface ridge
overhead.

OUTLOOK...

MON...Scattered restrictions possible with a cold front bringing
scattered showers and thunderstorms.

TUE-WED...No sig wx.

THU...Mainly VFR...but with scattered showers and thunderstorms
possible in the afternoon.

&&

.CLIMATE...
High in MDT so far is 98 degrees. Record for this date is
103 degrees in 1991.

High in IPT so far is 99 degrees, which tied the record
high of 99 degrees set in 1955.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...La Corte
NEAR TERM...La Corte/Martin
SHORT TERM...La Corte
LONG TERM...Lambert/Gartner
AVIATION...Jung/La Corte
CLIMATE...



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