Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 020221
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1021 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. A COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY. DRIER
CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...

RADAR HAS BECOME QUIET WITH THE SHOWERS MOVING EAST AND
DIMINISHING. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR TO SCATTERED LEADING TO ANOTHER
NIGHT OF COMFORTABLE SLEEPING WEATHER. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND
50 OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 60S OVER THE
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE SLICING RIGHT THROUGH THE REGION
ON SUNDAY PROVIDING ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND COMFORTABLE TEMPS AND
HUMIDITY WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S...TO AROUND 60F IN THE SE
ZONES.

TEMPS TO GET BACK TO NORMAL ACROSS THE NW AND PERHAPS ADD A DEG F
OR TWO TO SATURDAY/S MAXES ELSEWHERE.

ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH HEADED OUR WAY FROM THE UPPER GLAKES IN THE
OTHERWISE...DRY NW FLOW WILL HELP TO FUNNEL SOME LIMITED LLVL
MOISTURE AHEAD OF IT AND SPARK ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA LATER
SUN NIGHT ACROSS THE NW ZONES...AND ELSEWHERE MONDAY AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

STRONGER STORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE TIMING OF
THE CFRONT IS STILL A LITTLE UNCERTAIN. MODERATELY STG DEEP LAYER
SHEAR FROM THE WEST TO WSW...BUT MARGINAL CAPE...EQUATES TO SPC/S
OUTLOOK FOR MARGINAL SVR ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. HAVE KEPT POPS
IN THE HIGH CHC/LOW LIKELY FOR THE DAYLIGHT HRS MONDAY.

MODEL BLENDED TEMPS SUGGEST THAT HIGHS MONDAY COULD EDGE INTO THE
L90S IN THE LOWER SUSQ PRIOR TO THE CFROPA...WHILE MAXES WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE STATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE IN LONG TERM PATTERN. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE THROUGH EARLY MONDAY WHICH SHOULD BRING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. AS THIS LINE SHOULD
COINCIDE WITH DAYTIME HEATING EXPECT A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. AFTER THAT SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH ZONAL FLOW IS
EXPECTED WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY ALONG THE MASON DIXON
LINE. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BE POSSIBLE ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. THE BROAD UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THIS UP COMING
WEEK WILL FINALLY MOVE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WHICH COULD SPARK
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVG NEAR NORMAL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE
TRENDING COOLER LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
02/00Z...VERY ISOLD SHOWERS IN THE EAST-CENTRAL PRTN OF THE
AIRSPACE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE BY 03Z. WITH THE
SFC RIDGE AXIS PASSING TO THE SOUTH OF PA...THE RISK OF
SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED VSBYS IN FOG SHOULD BE LOW GIVEN MODIFIED CP
AIR AND LGT WINDS. HOWEVER SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG IS POSSIBLE.
OVERALL EXPECT PREDOMINATELY VFR FLYING THROUGH SUNDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AIRSPACE ON MONDAY WITH A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK...

SUN...VFR. NO SIG WX.

MON-MON NGT...VFR WITH BRIEF IFR VIS IN SCT-NMRS TSTMS.

TUE-THU...VFR WITH OCNL MVFR VIS IN ISOLD-SCT TSTMS. CONFIDENCE
LOW.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE AVG. TEMPERATURE FOR THE MONTH OF JULY 2015 AT HARRISBURG WAS
76.1 DEGREES OR +0.2 DEGREES ABOVE THE 30-YEAR CLIMATE NORMAL.
THE TOTAL MONTHLY RAINFALL WAS 2.69 INCHES OR -1.92 INCHES BELOW
THE 30-YEAR CLIMATE NORMAL. NO DAILY RECORDS WERE SET DURING THE
MONTH.

THE AVG. TEMPERATURE FOR THE MONTH OF JULY 2015 AT WILLIAMSPORT
WAS 72.9 DEGREES OR +0.2 DEGREES ABOVE THE 30-YEAR CLIMATE
NORMAL. THE TOTAL MONTHLY RAINFALL WAS 3.93 INCHES OR -0.41 INCHES
BELOW THE 30-YEAR CLIMATE NORMAL. NO DAILY RECORDS WERE SET DURING
THE MONTH.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...MARTIN/TYBURSKI
AVIATION...STEINBUGL
CLIMATE...



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