Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 171945
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
345 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WILL SLOWLY
WEAKEN INTO SATURDAY BEFORE RE-INTENSIFYING LATER ON SUNDAY ONCE
AGAIN. OVERALL IT SHOULD BE A RELATIVELY COOL AND DRY PERIOD WITH
A BRIEF WARM UP OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
QUIET NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. WILL LEAVE THE PATHY
VALLEY FOG IN THE FORECAST BUT NOT EXPECTING IT TO BE TOO WIDE
SPREAD BY SUNRISE. TEMPERATURES QUITE COOL...INTO THE 40S AT LEAST
FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ANOTHER DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL DAY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR AND JUST
SCATTERED CLOUD COVER. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BY QUITE COLD WITH
FROST POSSIBLE ACROSS THE COLDEST VALLEYS...AND A FROST ADVISORY
MAY HAVE TO BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN PA FOR FRIDAY
MORNING ON THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WARMER AIR AND HIGHER MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND ON INCREASING SW FLOW AROUND A HIGH PRESSURE AREA
/RETREATING TO THE EAST/. AT THE SAME TIME...TROUGH BEGINS TO
CARVE INTO ZONAL FLOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES AS A SYSTEM APPROACHES
PA FOR SUN/MON. THE RESULT WILL BE A PAIR OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURE DAYS SAT-SUN WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 70S...AND TAKING
A RUN AT 80F IN THE SE. WE/LL ALSO GET A BREAK FROM OUR RUN OF
CHILLY OVERNIGHTS AS LOWS REMAIN WELL INTO THE 40S AND 50S. SHOWER
ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY.

THE CENTER OF THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL
TO OUR NORTH...BUT A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH PA SUNDAY
INTO SUN NIGHT. THIS WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN/SHOWERS
THROUGH DURATION OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THE LATEST ECMWF IS THE
WETTEST WITH QPF POTENTIALLY UP TO 0.25...WHILE THE GFS BRINGS
LIGHTER AMOUNTS.

THE 500 HPA TROUGH BEHIND THE FRONT DEEPENS OVER THE REGION MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP MENTION FOR SCT INSTABILITY SHOWERS
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MAINLY IN HIGHER TERRAIN OF N/W CWA. COOLER
AIR ON NW FLOW WILL GRADUALLY FILTER BACK INTO THE REGION...WITH
MONDAY/S HIGHS ABOUT 8-10F COOLER AND TUESDAY FALLING ANOTHER 5F
OR SO. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL SLIP BACK INTO THE 40S MON NIGHT...WITH
SOME MID/UPPER 30S POSS IN THE NORTHERN MTNS TUE NIGHT.

TROUGH LIFTS TO THE NE BY MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES BACK
IN. AS FLOW AGAIN TURNS AROUND TO THE SW...REGION SHOULD SEE
ANOTHER GRADUAL WARMUP FOR LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOC DRY AIR MASS OVER THE REGION WILL
TRANSLATE TO A NEAR CERTAINTY OF VFR CONDS AND LIGHT WINDS FOR THE
REST OF THE DAY. PATCHY MORNING FOG...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS IS
PROBABLE THURSDAY MORNING...MAINLY IN THE NW MTNS AND THROUGH THE
LOWER SUSQ. SO LNS ARE MDT ARE POSSIBLE MVFR AND BFD POSSIBLE IFR.

OUTLOOK...
THU-FRI...PATCHY AM FOG POSSIBLE...MAINLY NORTH.
SAT-SUN...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROSS
NEAR TERM...ROSS
SHORT TERM...ROSS
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...ROSS


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