Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 241442
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1042 AM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Much drier and cooler air will arrive today and last through
much of the coming week. Widely scattered showers may pop up
each afternoon across the northern part of the state, though.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
Diurnal cumulus lined up running NW-SE through the area late
this morning as deep mixing dries up the water laying around.
Dewpoints are going down very slowly, but this drying should
accelerate in the afternoon, especially over the NW. Current
maxes look on track. Shortwave running across the lower lakes
later today could add just enough dynamics to the shallow
instability across the northern tier to pop isold-sct shra this
afternoon and these could last into the SW/C mountains before
dying in the early evening. Minor tweaks - to sky cover
mainly.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
Any late afternoon showers will diminish quickly this evening as
diurnal heating is lost. Skies will become mostly clear and it
will be very comfortable overnight over especially northern and
western sections where lows will bottom out around 50F. Mins
across the southeast will fall to the lower 60s.

Sunday will be a similar afternoon to Saturday...with lapse
rates steep enough to support isolated to scattered afternoon
showers over mainly western and northern sections. Highs will be
several degrees cooler throughout...ranging from the upper 60s
northwest to around 80F southeast.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Models have trended toward much better agreement with the
evolution of the seasonably strong large scale upper trough over
the Eastern U.S. A couple of shortwave impulses reflecting weak
surface fronts or troughs will provide a limited/mainly diurnal
opportunity for widely scattered showers/isolated low- topped
thunderstorms Monday and Tuesday. However, much of the this
period will be pleasant and dry with below normal PW supporting
low humidity and below normal temperatures relative to late June
climatology.

The trough is fcst to lift out and leave a more zonal pattern by
the middle of the week, followed by a resurgence of the
Southeast U.S. upper ridge. Models and ensembles show the ridge
breaking down in the west as a trough shifts east across the
Rockies into the Plains. Southerly flow increasing ahead of its
attendant frontal system should result in an upward/warmer trend
in temperatures accompanied by low level moisture/humidity.
Expect max/min temps to get back to seasonal levels around
midweek and likely reaching above normal levels by next Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Deep Vertical mixing up to around 7kft agl will transport some
moderate westerly wind gusts of 20-25mph to the surface
beginning around 13-14Z and continuing through the late
afternoon, before subsiding twd dusk.

VFR now, and expect this to continue for the entire period. Just
an isold shra is possible near KBFD this afternoon. There is the
tiniest chc for a weak shower to get to KUNV before any shra
dissipate with loss of heating.

.OUTLOOK...
Sun-Tue...Mainly VFR. Isold-Sct aftn shra far N.
Wed-Thu...VFR.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KCCX radar will be offline for approximately 4 days starting
today, Saturday, June 24th, for technicians to install the
first of 4 major service-life extension upgrades. The work on
the radar has been scheduled to minimize potential impacts to
operations and will be delayed if hazardous weather is forecast.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DeVoir/Lambert
NEAR TERM...Dangelo
SHORT TERM...DeVoir
LONG TERM...Steinbugl
AVIATION...Jung/Lambert
EQUIPMENT...


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