Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 301301
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
801 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PASS EAST OF THE REGION THIS MORNING...
DELIVERING BITTERLY COLD AIR TO RUSH BACK INTO THE REGION LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT. SUB ZERO WIND CHILLS WILL BE COMMON TONIGHT...
WITH SOME 10 TO 20 BELOW WIND CHILLS EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN...
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY...AND A
STORM SYSTEM WILL SPREAD SNOW OVER THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...LASTING INTO MONDAY MORNING. ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR
WILL FOLLOW INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ARCTIC FRONT RACED THROUGH THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND IS NOW PUSHING THROUGH THE MIDDLE TO LOWER SUSQ
RIVER VALLEY. SNOW SHOWERS OF VARYING INTENSITY ARE PRECEDINGAND
ACCOMPANYING FROPA...AND UPSLOPE AND LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS
ARE EVIDENT UPSTREAM BEHIND THE FRONT OVER NORTHEAST OHIO AND
SOUTHWEST PA...AND THESE WILL WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATES VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE LOCATED OVER KPIT AT THIS HOUR. WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES FOR SNOW HAVE BEEN CANCELLED OVER THE NORTHWEST...WEST
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS.

THE REMAINDER OF TODAY WILL BE BLUSTERY AND COLDER DAY AS ARCTIC
AIR SPILLS INTO THE REGION. LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WILL FAVOR THE
USUAL WESTERN AND NORTHERN HIGHER TERRAIN WITH CENTRAL AND EASTERN
AREAS PROBABLY SEEING LITTLE MORE THAN SOME STRAY FLURRIES.

MOST AREAS HAVE SEEN THEIR HIGHS FROM THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. THE LOWER SUSQ
RIVER VALLEY MAY RISE A TICK BEFORE THE FRONT PASSES. TEMPS WILL
STAY STEADY OR FALL THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WIND CHILLS WILL RANGE
FROM 5 TO 15 BELOW ZERO OVER WESTERN HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY LATE IN
THE DAY AS WINDS BECOME GUSTY BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
COLLABORATED A MARGINAL WIND ADVISORY FOR THE LOWER SUSQ
(ADAMS...LANCASTER AND YORK COUNTIES) FOR LATE TODAY THROUGH EARLY
SAT MORNING...MAINLY FOR HIGHER ELEVATION WIND GUST POTENTIAL. OF
MORE SIGNIFICANCE ARE WIND CHILLS DROPPING TO 10 TO 20 BELOW ZERO
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING TO THE WEST AND NORTH.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING...SATURDAY LOOKS SUNNY BUT ON THE
COLD SIDE. WINDS WILL HAVE DECREASED BY EARLY TO MID MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SOME CHC OF SOME LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH...WITH COLD FRONT DROPPING SE. HAVE LOW CHC
IN EARLY SUNDAY ACROSS THE FAR WEST.

CONSENSUS BUILDING FOR A MODERATE SNOWSTORM TO AFFECT MUCH OF
CENTRAL PA SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. TOUCHED UP QPF
AND SNOWFALL GRIDS FOR THAT TIMEFRAME...INDICATING AT LEAST
ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOWFALL. CONSENSUS OF 00Z MODEL SUITE IS FOR
CENTRAL PA TO BE IN THE SWEET SPOT...AND IT APPEARS THAT WARNING
CRITERIA SNOWFALL IS AN INCREASING THREAT GIVEN LATEST GUIDANCE
TRENDS. STILL TOO EARLY FOR HEADLINE ISSUANCES FOR FOR A 5TH
PERIOD AND BEYOND EVENT.

ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUE...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE PLAINS.

MODELS HINT AT ANOTHER LOW TRACKING NEAR THE AREA ON WED.
HAVE LOW END POPS FOR SNOW. MORE COLD AIR BEHIND THAT SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

IFR AT BFD AND JST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING AS POST
FRONTAL SNOW BANDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND NW MTNS. THE
CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE AS THE DAY CONTINUES BEFORE
BECOMING VFR BY THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR AT AOO AND LNS WILL IMPROVE
TO VFR AROUND 14Z. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAYTIME
HOURS...BEFORE WEAKENING BETWEEN 00Z AND 02Z.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...VFR.

SUN...LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN AREAS ASSOCIATED
WITH A STORM MOVING THROUGH THE CAROLINAS.

MON...REDUCED CONDS EARLY IN SNOW SHOWERS. IMPROVING FROM WEST TO
EAST AFTERNOON ONWARD.

TUE...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024-033-037-041-042-
045-046-049-051>053-058.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY
FOR PAZ064>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/MARTIN
AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER


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